Starting a Fire Sale

[dew1679666265]

They (and we) are in for the perfect storm of crap created by their GM to keep his job after 2005 and 2006. It will take a Silva miracle to turn this franchise around.

 

Huh? Most of the contracts are all off the books after 2012. You just have to sign the right FA to go along with whoever the farm system produces.

 

Yeah, current contracts won't hold us back from being able to compete again by 2012-2013. Most are off the books by after the 2011 season and we'll have two FA classes to supplement what our farm system can't fill.

 

The key will be making good decisions leading up to the 2012-2013 seasons.

[jersey cubs fan]

They (and we) are in for the perfect storm of crap created by their GM to keep his job after 2005 and 2006. It will take a Silva miracle to turn this franchise around.

 

Huh? Most of the contracts are all off the books after 2012. You just have to sign the right FA to go along with whoever the farm system produces.

 

Yeah, current contracts won't hold us back from being able to compete again by 2012-2013. Most are off the books by after the 2011 season and we'll have two FA classes to supplement what our farm system can't fill.

 

The key will be making good decisions leading up to the 2012-2013 seasons.

 

I don't know why people pretend that the contracts that run through 2012 are no big deal. The Cubs have a tremendous amount of money guaranteed in future years, much more than most teams. And those contracts absolutely do affect beyond 2012, because they affect what they can do right now, and right now is when you need to be positioning yourself for the future. You can't just wait up November 1, 2012 and say, okay, we can fix all this now. Every contract handed out affects future payroll flexibility.

[CubColtPacer]

They (and we) are in for the perfect storm of crap created by their GM to keep his job after 2005 and 2006. It will take a Silva miracle to turn this franchise around.

 

Huh? Most of the contracts are all off the books after 2012. You just have to sign the right FA to go along with whoever the farm system produces.

 

Yeah, current contracts won't hold us back from being able to compete again by 2012-2013. Most are off the books by after the 2011 season and we'll have two FA classes to supplement what our farm system can't fill.

 

The key will be making good decisions leading up to the 2012-2013 seasons.

 

I don't know why people pretend that the contracts that run through 2012 are no big deal. The Cubs have a tremendous amount of money guaranteed in future years, much more than most teams. And those contracts absolutely do affect beyond 2012, because they affect what they can do right now, and right now is when you need to be positioning yourself for the future. You can't just wait up November 1, 2012 and say, okay, we can fix all this now. Every contract handed out affects future payroll flexibility.

 

The Cubs have a higher budget than most teams. It's not a shock that they have more future money committed as well. Boston has 75 million committed for 2012. The Yankees have 107 million. The Mets have almost 61. The Phillies have 87. The Cubs are at 62.5 which includes the buyouts to both Ramirez and Silva.

 

BTW, for 2011 the Cubs are at 103.5. Boston is at 100.5. The Yankees are at 144.6. The Mets are at 108.8. The Phillies are at 134.7.

 

So the Cubs don't have an extreme amount of money committed in future years compared to the teams who are directly above and below in payroll. That's mostly because the Cubs had a pretty quiet offseason only committing 10 extra million or so to 2011 and 8.5 to 2012. They'll have plenty of flexibility to make moves as early as this offseason and definitely by the offseason after 2011.

[dew1679666265]

I don't know why people pretend that the contracts that run through 2012 are no big deal. The Cubs have a tremendous amount of money guaranteed in future years, much more than most teams. And those contracts absolutely do affect beyond 2012, because they affect what they can do right now, and right now is when you need to be positioning yourself for the future. You can't just wait up November 1, 2012 and say, okay, we can fix all this now. Every contract handed out affects future payroll flexibility.

 

You're right that we won't just starting signing people like crazy starting November 1, 2012, but at the same time it's very significant that we only have three big contracts that run through the 2012 season.

 

Is it ideal? No, but if this team doesn't contend by 2012-2013 it won't be because of Lee, Lilly, Kosuke, etc's contracts. Spread out over the next two offseasons we'll have close to $100 million to spend on free agents and trades. We also have a promising group of minor leaguers about to come up who should be able to contribute at a cheap cost. There's no reason why we can't contend by the 2012 season.

[apete6]

They (and we) are in for the perfect storm of crap created by their GM to keep his job after 2005 and 2006. It will take a Silva miracle to turn this franchise around.

 

Huh? Most of the contracts are all off the books after 2012. You just have to sign the right FA to go along with whoever the farm system produces.

 

Yeah, current contracts won't hold us back from being able to compete again by 2012-2013. Most are off the books by after the 2011 season and we'll have two FA classes to supplement what our farm system can't fill.

 

The key will be making good decisions leading up to the 2012-2013 seasons.

 

I don't know why people pretend that the contracts that run through 2012 are no big deal. The Cubs have a tremendous amount of money guaranteed in future years, much more than most teams. And those contracts absolutely do affect beyond 2012, because they affect what they can do right now, and right now is when you need to be positioning yourself for the future. You can't just wait up November 1, 2012 and say, okay, we can fix all this now. Every contract handed out affects future payroll flexibility.

 

The Cubs have a higher budget than most teams. It's not a shock that they have more future money committed as well. Boston has 75 million committed for 2012. The Yankees have 107 million. The Mets have almost 61. The Phillies have 87. The Cubs are at 62.5 which includes the buyouts to both Ramirez and Silva.

 

BTW, for 2011 the Cubs are at 103.5. Boston is at 100.5. The Yankees are at 144.6. The Mets are at 108.8. The Phillies are at 134.7.

 

So the Cubs don't have an extreme amount of money committed in future years compared to the teams who are directly above and below in payroll. That's mostly because the Cubs had a pretty quiet offseason only committing 10 extra million or so to 2011 and 8.5 to 2012. They'll have plenty of flexibility to make moves as early as this offseason and definitely by the offseason after 2011.

 

The problem is that the Cubs have that money tied up in 2nd and 3rd tier players (Soriano, Zambrano, Silva, Ramirez, Dempster, Fuku) while Boston (Beckett, Youkilis, etc...) , NYY (Arod, Sabathia, Teixiera), and Phillies (Howard, Halladay, Utley) have it tied up in 1st tier game changing players. Even that awful Howard contract extension is going to give the Phillies more value than paying Soriano $18 and Zambrano $18.

[Sammy Sofa]

Even that awful Howard contract extension is going to give the Phillies more value than paying Soriano $18 and Zambrano $18.

 

I think that's debatable. Not trying to justify the Z or Soriano contracts, but I still can't figure out what the hell Philly was thinking with that extension. Unless Utley is an idiot and is just going to accept a non-comparable deal out of the goodness of his heart, that's going to mean around $50 million a year locked up in just two players. Utley I could see arguing being worth it, but Howard? That's nuts.

[dew1679666265]

The problem is that the Cubs have that money tied up in 2nd and 3rd tier players (Soriano, Zambrano, Silva, Ramirez, Dempster, Fuku) while Boston (Beckett, Youkilis, etc...) , NYY (Arod, Sabathia, Teixiera), and Phillies (Howard, Halladay, Utley) have it tied up in 1st tier game changing players. Even that awful Howard contract extension is going to give the Phillies more value than paying Soriano $18 and Zambrano $18.

 

Boston has $15 mil in Lackey (33 in 2011), $14 mil in Drew (36 in 2011), $10 mil in Daisuke and $5.5 in Scutaro (36 in 2011) committed for the 2011 season. That's almost half of their committed money that could be bad, unproductive players.

 

The Phillies have $20 mil in Howard, $12 mil in Raul Ibanez, $12 mil in Brad Lidge (35 in 2011), $5.4 in Placido Polanco (36 in 2011) and $10 mil in Joe Blanton. That's nearly $60 mil in contracts committed to 2011 that could be underperforming to bad.

 

The Yankees are in a better position than the previous two with really only Burnett (16.5 mil) and Posada (13.1 mil) as likely bad contracts.

 

The Cubs have Soriano (19 mil), Z (18 mil) and Silva (12 mil) as likely underperforming contracts. I'm not sure how to classify Aramis since this is his only bad season, but he'll make 14 in 2011. So that's $63 mil in 2011 in underperforming contracts, if you include Aramis.

 

The Cubs are a little worse off than the rest, but not by leaps and bounds.

[jersey cubs fan]

Even that awful Howard contract extension is going to give the Phillies more value than paying Soriano $18 and Zambrano $18.

 

I think that's debatable. Not trying to justify the Z or Soriano contracts, but I still can't figure out what the hell Philly was thinking with that extension. Unless Utley is an idiot and is just going to accept a non-comparable deal out of the goodness of his heart, that's going to mean around $50 million a year locked up in just two players. Utley I could see arguing being worth it, but Howard? That's nuts.

 

I think it was about keeping together a rare Phillies team that created interest in the city. They don't live and don't with that team, so if they see it falling apart, the fans could bail. It also helps when you've already won a WS, been to another, and have been raking in greater than expected revenues as a result.

[jersey cubs fan]

The Cubs are a little worse off than the rest, but not by leaps and bounds.

 

But at the same time those teams are already much better than Chicago. Those teams simply have to tread water, the Cubs have to get significantly better.

[dew1679666265]

The Cubs are a little worse off than the rest, but not by leaps and bounds.

 

But at the same time those teams are already much better than Chicago. Those teams simply have to tread water, the Cubs have to get significantly better.

 

That certainly makes it more difficult, but it doesn't keep us from being able to contend once we only have $37 mil (Soriano and Z) in bad contracts by 2012.

 

And if Aramis can rebound next year, then we're better off than Boston and just slightly worse off than the Phillies. And I like Z's chances of being good next year more than almost anybody else I listed.

[Sammy Sofa]

Even that awful Howard contract extension is going to give the Phillies more value than paying Soriano $18 and Zambrano $18.

 

I think that's debatable. Not trying to justify the Z or Soriano contracts, but I still can't figure out what the hell Philly was thinking with that extension. Unless Utley is an idiot and is just going to accept a non-comparable deal out of the goodness of his heart, that's going to mean around $50 million a year locked up in just two players. Utley I could see arguing being worth it, but Howard? That's nuts.

 

I think it was about keeping together a rare Phillies team that created interest in the city. They don't live and don't with that team, so if they see it falling apart, the fans could bail. It also helps when you've already won a WS, been to another, and have been raking in greater than expected revenues as a result.

 

Understandable, but I guess I just find it hard to believe that they wouldn't have been able to keep Howard for anything less than $25 million a year for 5 years, especially when you have a much more valuable player who is also going to be getting a new deal during that span of time and is likely going to expect (rightly so) something comparable.

 

Is Howard a Boras client?

[jersey cubs fan]

The Cubs are a little worse off than the rest, but not by leaps and bounds.

 

But at the same time those teams are already much better than Chicago. Those teams simply have to tread water, the Cubs have to get significantly better.

 

That certainly makes it more difficult, but it doesn't keep us from being able to contend once we only have $37 mil (Soriano and Z) in bad contracts by 2012.

 

And if Aramis can rebound next year, then we're better off than Boston and just slightly worse off than the Phillies. And I like Z's chances of being good next year more than almost anybody else I listed.

 

Obviously nothing will prevent it from being possible. The whole point is it's more difficult. In baseball, what happens at the margin is what matters.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

The Cubs are a little worse off than the rest, but not by leaps and bounds.

 

But at the same time those teams are already much better than Chicago. Those teams simply have to tread water, the Cubs have to get significantly better.

 

That certainly makes it more difficult, but it doesn't keep us from being able to contend once we only have $37 mil (Soriano and Z) in bad contracts by 2012.

 

And if Aramis can rebound next year, then we're better off than Boston and just slightly worse off than the Phillies. And I like Z's chances of being good next year more than almost anybody else I listed.

The immediate concern is with a crappy team this year. If Hendry remains in charge, that $37M will grow considerably this offseason with a couple more bad contracts.

[dew1679666265]

Obviously nothing will prevent it from being possible. The whole point is it's more difficult. In baseball, what happens at the margin is what matters.

 

I've never questioned that it's more difficult, but at the same time, big contracts to productive players are to be expected and it's rare that a big contract won't become a hindrance down the road. The key is limiting them and at this point, the big contracts from 2012 on are limited (just 2 of them).

 

My primary point in this whole debate is that unlike what others have said, the contract situation this season is not likely to keep us from contending for the next 5-6+ years. There are those who have said we won't have a chance to be competitive again until 2015-2016 because of contract situations now and there's just nothing to that at all. The current contracts will likely keep us from being competitive this year and next, but we'll have plenty of payroll space the next two offseasons to build a very competitive team by 2012.

[dew1679666265]

The immediate concern is with a crappy team this year. If Hendry remains in charge, that $37M will grow considerably this offseason with a couple more bad contracts.

 

I've said the whole time that good decisions must be made, but that's true for any team. If we hand out a bunch of big contracts for mediocre players and relievers, then we won't have the payroll space to become competitive again. But my point is that we'll have the payroll space to build a competitive roster if good decisions are made.

 

There's no reason this team should be mired in mediocrity beyond the 2011 season because of contracts that run out after the 2011 season (which is all our big contracts outside of Z and Soriano).

[apete6]

The Cubs are a little worse off than the rest, but not by leaps and bounds.

 

But at the same time those teams are already much better than Chicago. Those teams simply have to tread water, the Cubs have to get significantly better.

 

And they're the last 3 champions (Bos, Phi, NYY) besides the Mets. If we would have won in 2008 like we could/should have, no one would care about the contracts. Hendry gambled on shooting his load for a few seasons and lost. If they won it all, he'd be a hero, but they choked and he has to pay the price.

[swordsman]

I have not read all the pages of this thread but isn't it true that the Ricketts are likely to lower payroll when some of these contracts come off the books? I thought I heard that somewhere.

[dew1679666265]

I have not read all the pages of this thread but isn't it true that the Ricketts are likely to lower payroll when some of these contracts come off the books? I thought I heard that somewhere.

 

I haven't heard that at all. The only thing I've heard is that Ricketts promised all profits from the team would be invested back into the team, leading me to think a drop in payroll would be unlikely.

[swordsman]

I have not read all the pages of this thread but isn't it true that the Ricketts are likely to lower payroll when some of these contracts come off the books? I thought I heard that somewhere.

 

I haven't heard that at all. The only thing I've heard is that Ricketts promised all profits from the team would be invested back into the team, leading me to think a drop in payroll would be unlikely.

 

This is not the quote I saw and I guess you have to consider the source, but he does say that the farm system will be

 

Here is the article

 

Ultimately, Ricketts said during an interview on WSCR-AM (670) that although the Cubs have plenty of resources to pay for players, the farm system will be depended upon in the future as the main feeder system for the major league club.

[jersey cubs fan]

I have not read all the pages of this thread but isn't it true that the Ricketts are likely to lower payroll when some of these contracts come off the books? I thought I heard that somewhere.

 

I haven't heard that at all. The only thing I've heard is that Ricketts promised all profits from the team would be invested back into the team, leading me to think a drop in payroll would be unlikely.

 

I have not heard any such thing. If the team tanks and fans disappear, perhaps. But I think they will at least maintain status quo.

[dew1679666265]

This is not the quote I saw and I guess you have to consider the source, but he does say that the farm system will be

 

Here is the article

 

Ultimately, Ricketts said during an interview on WSCR-AM (670) that although the Cubs have plenty of resources to pay for players, the farm system will be depended upon in the future as the main feeder system for the major league club.

 

That doesn't necessarily mean he's going to decrease payroll. The Red Sox have been very dependent on their farm system with Epstein in charge, yet their payroll hasn't decreased. My guess is he means the core of the team won't be built around free agents (Soriano, Lilly, Dempster) and trades (Lee, Aramis), but instead on developing players from the minors.

[dew1679666265]

I have not read all the pages of this thread but isn't it true that the Ricketts are likely to lower payroll when some of these contracts come off the books? I thought I heard that somewhere.

 

I haven't heard that at all. The only thing I've heard is that Ricketts promised all profits from the team would be invested back into the team, leading me to think a drop in payroll would be unlikely.

 

I have not heard any such thing. If the team tanks and fans disappear, perhaps. But I think they will at least maintain status quo.

 

Haven't heard about a decrease in payroll or haven't heard about the profit going back into the team?

[jersey cubs fan]

I have not read all the pages of this thread but isn't it true that the Ricketts are likely to lower payroll when some of these contracts come off the books? I thought I heard that somewhere.

 

I haven't heard that at all. The only thing I've heard is that Ricketts promised all profits from the team would be invested back into the team, leading me to think a drop in payroll would be unlikely.

 

This is not the quote I saw and I guess you have to consider the source, but he does say that the farm system will be

 

Here is the article

 

Ultimately, Ricketts said during an interview on WSCR-AM (670) that although the Cubs have plenty of resources to pay for players, the farm system will be depended upon in the future as the main feeder system for the major league club.

 

How did you even put those two things together?

[jersey cubs fan]

I have not read all the pages of this thread but isn't it true that the Ricketts are likely to lower payroll when some of these contracts come off the books? I thought I heard that somewhere.

 

I haven't heard that at all. The only thing I've heard is that Ricketts promised all profits from the team would be invested back into the team, leading me to think a drop in payroll would be unlikely.

 

I have not heard any such thing. If the team tanks and fans disappear, perhaps. But I think they will at least maintain status quo.

 

Haven't heard about a decrease in payroll or haven't heard about the profit going back into the team?

 

about the payroll decrease.

[dew1679666265]

I have not read all the pages of this thread but isn't it true that the Ricketts are likely to lower payroll when some of these contracts come off the books? I thought I heard that somewhere.

 

I haven't heard that at all. The only thing I've heard is that Ricketts promised all profits from the team would be invested back into the team, leading me to think a drop in payroll would be unlikely.

 

I have not heard any such thing. If the team tanks and fans disappear, perhaps. But I think they will at least maintain status quo.

 

Haven't heard about a decrease in payroll or haven't heard about the profit going back into the team?

 

about the payroll decrease.

 

Ok. That's what I figured, but wanted to make sure.