Re: Harden close to signing with Rangers

[David]

 

Which is a very small sample size when comparing it to the other guys numbers.

 

jesus!!

 

 

oh my god.

[David]

why are you guys even bothering?

[dew1679666265]

was harden worth the 7 million he earned in 2009 statistically speaking?

 

According to Fangraphs he was worth $8.2 million.

[Shilzzz]

Marshall has done fine in that exact type of situation in the past. Moving either to the rotation full-time makes the pitching staff worse.

 

He did for a few starts in 08, but not so much last season. He didn't have alot of those chances in 09 though. Even though Marshall pitched pretty well as a starter last year before getting pulled from the rotation. Which was basically because Wells was pitching well, and Marshall was LH and the Cubs needed a LH pitcher in the pen.

 

 

Do you, perhaps, have anything other than conjecture to make this argument? I pay attention to those human elements, but think that you are weighing those far too heavily. I am willing to change my opinion here, because I would like to feel more comfortable about losing Harden for nothing, but you have said nothing that's even come close to changing my mind.

 

Well I guess we can look over Rich Harden starts last year and look the effect they had on the team. But right now I don't have the time to do it. Overall though it's pretty common knowledge that it's pretty hard to shuffle players around. Especially pitchers who's arms get use to throwing 1 or 2 innings, and aren't often stretched out enough to just go out there out of the blue and throw 5-6 innings. Of course if the Cubs have a really good deep pen, and have a good young starter they wanna keep waiting in Triple A. Then the domino effect isn't as bad with having a guy like Harden on the roster. But if you got young struggling relievers in your pen, and gotta shuffle guys back and forth from the pen to the rotation. It does have a pretty big effect on your team as a whole.

 

Pretty common knowledge is that RBI and Batting Average for hitters and Wins for pitchers are all very important stats when evaluating players, so that means nothing.

[Tim M]

was harden worth the 7 million he earned in 2009 statistically speaking?

 

According to Fangraphs he was worth $8.2 million.

 

Their dollar figures are a bunch of crap.

[cubsfan26]

Pretty common knowledge is that RBI and Batting Average for hitters and Wins for pitchers are all very important stats when evaluating players, so that means nothing

 

Thats true, but this knowledge comes from the players and from a recovery standpoint. Of course like anything some guys can adjust to it better then others. But alot of pitchers need to be a on a regular routine to have the most success. It's a bit different then some 45 year old reporter saying Derrek Lee isn't a good middle of the order hitter, because he's only had over 100 RBI's twice in his career, or some garbage about Zambrano being bad because he had only nine wins last season.

[Shilzzz]

Pretty common knowledge is that RBI and Batting Average for hitters and Wins for pitchers are all very important stats when evaluating players, so that means nothing

 

Thats true, but this knowledge comes from the players and from a recovery standpoint. Of course like anything some guys can adjust to it better then others. But alot of pitchers need to be a on a regular routine to have the most success. It's a bit different then some 45 year old reporter saying Derrek Lee isn't a good middle of the order hitter, because he's only had over 100 RBI's twice in his career, or some garbage about Zambrano being bad because he had only nine wins last season.

 

Again, you will never be taken seriously until what you say has substance.

[cubsfan26]

Ok well sorry right now I don't have the time to do the research to give you the information you want. If you don't wanna take what I say seriously well thats up to you. Early today I had more time to do research and I showed people that Hendry has done a decent job during his reign as GM. When before that people were calling it bad. Sorry I couldn't give you anymore info at this time.

[dew1679666265]

was harden worth the 7 million he earned in 2009 statistically speaking?

 

According to Fangraphs he was worth $8.2 million.

 

Their dollar figures are a bunch of crap.

 

They have tended to be high on some players. It definitely shouldn't be taken as definitive, but it's one piece of information to look at.

[Eric Clipperton]

 

Yes but how much better overall? Since Marshall, Gorzelanny or Shark are more likely to pitch better when they are in the rotation consistently every 5th day.

 

Do you, perhaps, have anything other than conjecture to make this argument? I pay attention to those human elements, but think that you are weighing those far too heavily. I am willing to change my opinion here, because I would like to feel more comfortable about losing Harden for nothing, but you have said nothing that's even come close to changing my mind.

 

Does this guy have anything but conjecture behind any argument? The number of falsehoods that he passes along as fact are truly staggering, as if nothing exists outside of every baseball myth ever promulgated by hack columnists, managers, and nostalgia addicts as these cliche-powered machines soldier on, demonstrate the sad irony, that ignorance is bliss.

[cubsfan26]

 

Yes but how much better overall? Since Marshall, Gorzelanny or Shark are more likely to pitch better when they are in the rotation consistently every 5th day.

 

Do you, perhaps, have anything other than conjecture to make this argument? I pay attention to those human elements, but think that you are weighing those far too heavily. I am willing to change my opinion here, because I would like to feel more comfortable about losing Harden for nothing, but you have said nothing that's even come close to changing my mind.

 

Does this guy have anything but conjecture behind any argument? The number of falsehoods that he passes along as fact are truly staggering, as if nothing exists outside of every baseball myth ever promulgated by hack columnists, managers, and nostalgia addicts as these cliche-powered machines soldier on, demonstrate the sad irony, that ignorance is bliss.

 

 

:-)) :-))

[Eric Clipperton]

was harden worth the 7 million he earned in 2009 statistically speaking?

 

According to Fangraphs he was worth $8.2 million.

 

Their dollar figures are a bunch of crap.

 

Why is that? Because you say so? While they may not always be accurate in some cases, since especially some elements of luck are not really "value" but are counted as such in the figures, I think in Harden's case these factors were such that he was somewhat undervalued by Fangraphs numbers in 2009, if anything.

[Eric Clipperton]

Pretty common knowledge is that RBI and Batting Average for hitters and Wins for pitchers are all very important stats when evaluating players, so that means nothing

 

Thats true, but this knowledge comes from the players and from a recovery standpoint. Of course like anything some guys can adjust to it better then others. But alot of pitchers need to be a on a regular routine to have the most success. It's a bit different then some 45 year old reporter saying Derrek Lee isn't a good middle of the order hitter, because he's only had over 100 RBI's twice in his career, or some garbage about Zambrano being bad because he had only nine wins last season.

 

Most players have no idea what makes them good or bad players. They just are.

[davearm2]

Rich Harden Cubs 10.91

Tim Lincecum Giants 10.42

J Verlander Tigers 10.09

Jon Lester Red Sox 9.96

Y Gallardo Brewers 9.89

Javier Vazquez Braves 9.77

J Sanchez Giants 9.75

C Kershaw Dodgers 9.74

Zack Greinke Royals 9.50

Ricky Nolasco Marlins 9.49

 

Top k/9 minimum 120IP in 2009. Some good company there. That Harden is .51 higher than Lincecum, who is only .32 higher than Verlander, and the rates bunch up quickly thereafter, speaks even more highly of how filthy Harden is.

Curious to see how Harden ranks relative to those guys in IP per start, and average #starts per year.

 

Striking out guys at a high rate is a valuable thing, no doubt. So is pitching deep into games, and taking the ball every 5th day. Harden doesn't score particularly well in those areas, and in fact he's pretty poor at those things, which is why is value is what it is.

 

At any rate, bravo to whoever it was early in this thread that said hopefully we can stop hearing about the draft pick Hendry let get away. It's pretty obvious now that it was never available, since Harden would've accepted arb if it was offered.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Fun with Projections

 

Harden

CHONE: 132 IP, 25 Runs v. Replacement

Bill James: 3.67 FIP, 2.49 K/BB

 

Gorzelanny

CHONE: 160 IP, 23 Runs v. Replacement

Bill James: 4.00 FIP, 2.00 K/BB

 

Not exactly a drastic dropoff here.

[Larry Horse]

If Harden is smart, he'll go to the Mariners. As a flyball pitcher whose biggest problem in 2009 was giving up HR, playing in Safeco with that defense behind him would be his best chance of success.

 

I thought the same thing. And didn't Harden say he preferred pitching at night when it's cooler? I thought I remembered reading that. Texas wouldn't really fit that. Money talks.

[sweetpeteman]

If Harden is smart, he'll go to the Mariners. As a flyball pitcher whose biggest problem in 2009 was giving up HR, playing in Safeco with that defense behind him would be his best chance of success.

 

I thought the same thing. And didn't Harden say he preferred pitching at night when it's cooler? I thought I remembered reading that. Texas wouldn't really fit that. Money talks.

 

 

Texas doesn't play home day games in the summer, so that argument is actually in his corner.

[Rob]

I notice that nobody is debating that when Harden is pitching, he's pretty much just as good as any other pitcher out there. (Which is good, as simply looking at xFIP the last few years would eviscerate most arguments to the contrary). The problem most seem to have is that he doesn't pitch all that many innings.

 

In a bit of math that I'm sure everybody here can understand, let's walk through this.

 

How much money do the best pitchers in baseball make? $20 mil or so? Harden pitches what, 50% as many innings as a conservative estimate? Well then, Harden's probably worth about half as much... or somewhere in the range of $10 mil.

 

There are mitigating factors of course, his bat, the chance he finally has that one healthy season, the chance he throws six innings and breaks down, and all that jazz about shuffling the rotation and bullpen to account for the innings he doesn't pitch.

 

But if anybody is coming up with a drastically different figure than that $10 mil, they're probably doing something wrong... my money would be on being unable to see past ERA and a flukey home run / fly ball rate.

[davearm2]

I notice that nobody is debating that when Harden is pitching, he's pretty much just as good as any other pitcher out there. (Which is good, as simply looking at xFIP the last few years would eviscerate most arguments to the contrary). The problem most seem to have is that he doesn't pitch all that many innings.

 

In a bit of math that I'm sure everybody here can understand, let's walk through this.

 

How much money do the best pitchers in baseball make? $20 mil or so? Harden pitches what, 50% as many innings as a conservative estimate? Well then, Harden's probably worth about half as much... or somewhere in the range of $10 mil.

 

There are mitigating factors of course, his bat, the chance he finally has that one healthy season, the chance he throws six innings and breaks down, and all that jazz about shuffling the rotation and bullpen to account for the innings he doesn't pitch.

 

But if anybody is coming up with a drastically different figure than that $10 mil, they're probably doing something wrong... my money would be on being unable to see past ERA and a flukey home run / fly ball rate.

Yeah that math doesn't work. A guy half as good isn't worth half as much.

 

If you wanted to take that sort of approach, you'd compute what 50% of Harden's innings plus 50% replacement level innings would give you in terms of production, then try and find a pricetag for that, then deduct the second guy's salary from that number, and then make some downward adjustment for the fact that you need to use 2 roster spots for one role.

 

(Even that's a simplification, because the 50% of innings Harden doesn't give you is not spread to one player, but to many, some starters covering missed starts, and some relievers covering early exits.)

[SouthSideRyan]

I understand that, and I would much rather pay 16m a year for 200 innings out of Harden. Then 7.5m for 140 innings

 

In case anyone missed it.

[javy knows my name]

I understand that, and I would much rather pay 16m a year for 200 innings out of Harden. Then 7.5m for 140 innings

 

In case anyone missed it.

I've got one, too.

 

Dude brought up Harden's stellar k/9 as a negative.

 

A negative.

 

As in bad.

[jersey cubs fan]

I understand that, and I would much rather pay 16m a year for 200 innings out of Harden. Then 7.5m for 140 innings

 

In case anyone missed it.

I've got one, too.

 

Dude brought up Harden's stellar k/9 as a negative.

 

A negative.

 

As in bad.

 

So all of a sudden you are pro-fascism?

[Elrhino]

Looks like Harden just wants to try a 1 year deal to rebuild his value and try it again next season ... which makes signing with the Rangers and playing in that ballpark especially odd. No doubt they were the highest bidder, but he really couldn't find anything even close to 1 year/7.5 from anyone else? And to do it so early signifies he wanted to get the money while it was available. Not a good omen for other free agents.

[YearofDaCubs]

I don't know if this was discussed but Soriano accepted arb from the Braves and basically got traded for prospects. Why couldn't we have done the same thing with Harden? If he signed with another team we would have gotten picj and If he accepted arb with us I'm sure at the very least we could have traded him for something.

[CubColtPacer]

I don't know if this was discussed but Soriano accepted arb from the Braves and basically got traded for prospects. Why couldn't we have done the same thing with Harden? If he signed with another team we would have gotten picj and If he accepted arb with us I'm sure at the very least we could have traded him for something.

 

Harden could have refused to be traded. The Braves were lucky that Soriano was willing to agree to the trade.