Re: Harden close to signing with Rangers

[Shilzzz]

Regardless of whatever someone may or may not consider a small sample size, pitchers with the k/9 numbers Harden posts each year are elite, not just okay or decent. There is an argument to be made about his injury history, but it's clear by now what Harden is when he pitches, which is one of the best pitchers in baseball right now.

 

That Hendry didn't offer arbitration to Harden is one of the most mindblowingly stupid decisions he has made, and he has made plenty. Put Harden up against anyone that ends up taking the rotation spots not filled by Zambrano and Dempster, and Harden wins. I don't care if you say it's 70% Harden 30% Gorzalanny, Harden still wins.

 

Yet, here we sit, waiting for our general manager to trade Milton Bradley for pennies on the dollar while a dominate pitcher is had by another team who doesn't compensate the Cubs even one cent. If Hendry doesn't believe that Harden can last another year for fear of injury, then make your mind up beforehand and take what you can from the Twins. If Hendry still believed the Cubs could make the playoffs at that time, fine, but at least offer arbitration; either you get a part to full time stud pitcher at a reasonable cost, or you get a draft pick. But because Bradley threw a ball into the bleachers with 2 outs once, and was generally cantankerous with a relentless media, his focus can't be distracted by smart baseball decisions, which he seemingly hasn't been capable of since 2007 or so.

 

I really hope he understands that he's not going to survive a year of Randy Wells, Gorz, and Samardzija in the rotation.

[CUBZ99]

Regardless of whatever someone may or may not consider a small sample size, pitchers with the k/9 numbers Harden posts each year are elite, not just okay or decent. There is an argument to be made about his injury history, but it's clear by now what Harden is when he pitches, which is one of the best pitchers in baseball right now.

 

That Hendry didn't offer arbitration to Harden is one of the most mindblowingly stupid decisions he has made, and he has made plenty. Put Harden up against anyone that ends up taking the rotation spots not filled by Zambrano and Dempster, and Harden wins. I don't care if you say it's 70% Harden 30% Gorzalanny, Harden still wins.

 

Yet, here we sit, waiting for our general manager to trade Milton Bradley for pennies on the dollar while a dominate pitcher is had by another team who doesn't compensate the Cubs even one cent. If Hendry doesn't believe that Harden can last another year for fear of injury, then make your mind up beforehand and take what you can from the Twins. If Hendry still believed the Cubs could make the playoffs at that time, fine, but at least offer arbitration; either you get a part to full time stud pitcher at a reasonable cost, or you get a draft pick. But because Bradley threw a ball into the bleachers with 2 outs once, and was generally cantankerous with a relentless media, his focus can't be distracted by smart baseball decisions, which he seemingly hasn't been capable of since 2007 or so.

 

I really hope he understands that he's not going to survive a year of Randy Wells, Gorz, and Samardzija in the rotation.

 

Where did you expect Hendry to get the money for to sign Harden? We can't even sign a mid level player like Cameron or Byrd without dumping part of Bradley's salary. In regard to the Twins situation, it is possible that Hendry felt that he would rather take a chance that Ricketts would allow him payroll space to resign Harden, and it was better to take a chance with that than take some B-, C prospects from the Twins. Or its entirely possible that his medical records are so bad that the Hendry didn't want to blow $7 or 8MM on a pitcher that wouldn't contribute much to an already cash strapped team.

 

In some ways I guess it is fitting to allow Hendry to hang himself with his past poor payroll management. It is just extremely painful to watch so far.

[cubsfan26]

Regardless of whatever someone may or may not consider a small sample size, pitchers with the k/9 numbers Harden posts each year are elite, not just okay or decent. There is an argument to be made about his injury history, but it's clear by now what Harden is when he pitches, which is one of the best pitchers in baseball right now.

 

Which isn't enough, not to mention that K/9 is one of Harden issues. Striking out all of those hitters usually makes him throw tons of pitches. Which is why he struggles to give the team innings even when healthy.

 

That Hendry didn't offer arbitration to Harden is one of the most mindblowingly stupid decisions he has made, and he has made plenty.

 

You need to have money to be able to do that. People on here are really overreacting about that. Harden is very injury prone and the Cubs would be risk paying him 10m. Which is WAY too high for a pitcher who might pitch 140 innings, and could be alot less. IMO this is about the same as Kerry Wood last season. It would have been nice to offer him it. But at the same time I don't wanna get stuck with him accepting it either.

 

If Hendry still believed the Cubs could make the playoffs at that time, fine, but at least offer arbitration; either you get a part to full time stud pitcher at a reasonable cost, or you get a draft pick.

 

You aren't paying enough attention to the lack of innings and the lack and the injury risk involved with Harden. Paying him 7.5-10m is a risky price not a reasonable price.

 

I really hope he understands that he's not going to survive a year of Randy Wells, Gorz, and Samardzija in the rotation.

 

The Cubs have been able to patch together pretty good rotations over the last 7-8 years(besides 06). I would give them the benefit of the doubt when putting a rotation together. Remember Randy Wells never should have done what he did last year in the first place. I think we would all agree he's not that good, but that doesn't mean he can't be a serviceable 4th starter. He wouldn't be the first guy who got by with average stuff, because he threw strikes and knows how to pitch. Same with Gorzelanny and Marshall who both have had success in the past.

Edited December 10, 2009 by cubsfan26

[inari]

120+ innings is a safe bet for Harden. 7.5 mil is a reasonable price for that.

[Ballgame64]

This is a very interesting thread. I also think it is interesting that part of Brad Penny's one year deal is the Cardinals agree to not offer him arbitration next year. Penny's representative must realize arbitration is not necessarily a good thing for players who want to test the free agent market.

 

Personally, I could care less about Harden. The stats might say he is good bordering on great when he is healthy enough to pitch, but to me this is too much like the Prior saga. I'd like to see how the rest of the offseason plays out before saying this was a horrible move. With Lilly missing the first month, maybe Hendry and those who have a lot more information about Harden than people on this message board felt they needed more of a sure thing. I also think it is only fair to see how Harden performs in 2010 before saying this was a horrible year.

[17 Seconds]

oh yeah, brad penny got 7.5 but rich harden isn't worth that? right

[cubsfan26]

120+ innings is a safe bet for Harden. 7.5 mil is a reasonable price for that.

 

Safe bet is going a little far, but that would be possible. Still ask your self who pitches in those other 10-16 starts? What does it do to your bullpen when Harden leaves the game in the 3rd or 4th inning? Stop just looking at Harden numbers and thinking would be worth it, and consider what it does to your team.

 

oh yeah, brad penny got 7.5 but rich harden isn't worth that? right

 

Who said Penny wasn't overpaid? But at least he will give you 170-200 innings. When Harden isn't pitching that means something else needs to start. If that guy isn't good it pretty much takes away any postive Harden brings.

Edited December 10, 2009 by cubsfan26

[17 Seconds]

I understand that, and I would much rather pay 16m a year for 200 innings out of Harden. Then 7.5m for 140 innings, because I think having a part-time pitcher like that on your staff has a bad domino effect on your team. That doesn't show up in the stats when you are considering having Harden on your team.

 

your whole pov here is just ridiculous

[cubsfan26]

I understand that, and I would much rather pay 16m a year for 200 innings out of Harden. Then 7.5m for 140 innings, because I think having a part-time pitcher like that on your staff has a bad domino effect on your team. That doesn't show up in the stats when you are considering having Harden on your team.

 

your whole pov here is just ridiculous

 

Why? If you feel that way then you must believe that baseball shouldn't be played on the field with people and has no human factors involved. Or believe t oh Harden will skip a start here, and we can just start another guy it's so easy. Or oh shoot Harden on the DL for a month, lets just move Marshall to the rotation from the pen even though he's no stretched out. Or oh Harden leaves the game in the 4th inning, we can just put someone else in the game it's all good. Who cares if it tires out the whole bullpen for the next few days. There's a domino effect of having a pitcher like that on your team, if you cant' see that then I don't know what to tell you. So sorry I rather pay a pitcher more that can stay healthy, and give me innings. I can't help it that I can see the dropbacks of other much less talented pitchers having to fill in on the spot and expect to perform at a good level. Unless your lucky and find a bunch of talented young relievers and have a talented starter in the minors waiting in the wings. It's gonna cost you alot of games.

Edited December 10, 2009 by cubsfan26

[Ballgame64]

oh yeah, brad penny got 7.5 but rich harden isn't worth that? right

You are worth whatever someone will pay you, nothing more, nothing less.

[Shilzzz]

Regardless of whatever someone may or may not consider a small sample size, pitchers with the k/9 numbers Harden posts each year are elite, not just okay or decent. There is an argument to be made about his injury history, but it's clear by now what Harden is when he pitches, which is one of the best pitchers in baseball right now.

 

Which isn't enough, not to mention that K/9 is one of Harden issues. Striking out all of those hitters usually makes him throw tons of pitches. Which is why he struggles to give the team innings even when healthy.

 

That Hendry didn't offer arbitration to Harden is one of the most mindblowingly stupid decisions he has made, and he has made plenty.

 

You need to have money to be able to do that. People on here are really overreacting about that. Harden is very injury prone and the Cubs would be risk paying him 10m. Which is WAY too high for a pitcher who might pitch 140 innings, and could be alot less. IMO this is about the same as Kerry Wood last season. It would have been nice to offer him it. But at the same time I don't wanna get stuck with him accepting it either.

 

If Hendry still believed the Cubs could make the playoffs at that time, fine, but at least offer arbitration; either you get a part to full time stud pitcher at a reasonable cost, or you get a draft pick.

 

You aren't paying enough attention to the lack of innings and the lack and the injury risk involved with Harden. Paying him 7.5-10m is a risky price not a reasonable price.

 

I really hope he understands that he's not going to survive a year of Randy Wells, Gorz, and Samardzija in the rotation.

 

The Cubs have been able to patch together pretty good rotations over the last 7-8 years(besides 06). I would give them the benefit of the doubt when putting a rotation together. Remember Randy Wells never should have done what he did last year in the first place. I think we would all agree he's not that good, but that doesn't mean he can't be a serviceable 4th starter. He wouldn't be the first guy who got by with average stuff, because he threw strikes and knows how to pitch. Same with Gorzelanny and Marshall who both have had success in the past.

 

1) Why do you think I threw in the caveat about when he pitches? Now, could Harden stand to be more efficient? Absolutely. However, that the thing that makes Harden most successful is also his biggest pitfall does not make him something not worth the 7.5 mil he commands. My thought is that either he is being coached poorly as far as release points or he is bullheaded when it comes to listening to coaching, but i've never heard anything along the lines of Harden being difficult to coach. Those strikeouts, and the fact that he misses so many bats is what makes him successful, because there is no chance of that hitter to get on base or drive in runs. And while that may make him struggle to get more innings, the innings he does pitch he is very tough, and I'm not quite sure you understand, or maybe you just severely underestimate, exactly how important a role and difficult to find that is. Why do you think we lived with Wood and Prior for so long?

 

2) You are the same poster who, iirc, is in favor of Grabow's contract. Therefore I will not acknowledge your opinion of how a team spends money, specifically on pitching.

 

3) As a simple addendum, which i think goes to show your faulty line of logic here, you are stretching it by throwing out that 10m figure. I think you know this, too, so to do that just undermines your argument. If Lincecum is lucky, he gets $15m in arbitration this time, and he's won two cy youngs while being fully healthy.

 

That you can argue for Grabow's contract and support the course of action taken on Harden is ridiculous. I'm sorry, but it is, and how you don't see it is beyond me.

[Shilzzz]

120+ innings is a safe bet for Harden. 7.5 mil is a reasonable price for that.

 

Safe bet is going a little far, but that would be possible. Still ask your self who pitches in those other 10-16 starts? What does it do to your bullpen when Harden leaves the game in the 3rd or 4th inning? Stop just looking at Harden numbers and thinking would be worth it, and consider what it does to your team.

 

do you really need this explained to you? If the team is paying Sean Marshall, what, 1m, and pays Harden 7.5, that equates to a full year of a starting pitcher at 8.5m, correct? Okay, then, here's what you do: take 80 innings of Marshall weighted and 120 innings of Harden weighted out, and see what kind of numbers you end up with. Now, is that pitcher worth 8.5 million dollars?

 

All this other stuff about domino effects is poppycock posturing to set some sort of stance no one can argue against.

[inari]

120+ innings is a safe bet for Harden. 7.5 mil is a reasonable price for that.

 

Safe bet is going a little far, but that would be possible. Still ask your self who pitches in those other 10-16 starts? What does it do to your bullpen when Harden leaves the game in the 3rd or 4th inning? Stop just looking at Harden numbers and thinking would be worth it, and consider what it does to your team.

 

 

Who pitches in those other 10-16 starts? Hm. Dunno. But they're going to pitch in all 30+ now.

[Shilzzz]

Regardless of whatever someone may or may not consider a small sample size, pitchers with the k/9 numbers Harden posts each year are elite, not just okay or decent. There is an argument to be made about his injury history, but it's clear by now what Harden is when he pitches, which is one of the best pitchers in baseball right now.

 

That Hendry didn't offer arbitration to Harden is one of the most mindblowingly stupid decisions he has made, and he has made plenty. Put Harden up against anyone that ends up taking the rotation spots not filled by Zambrano and Dempster, and Harden wins. I don't care if you say it's 70% Harden 30% Gorzalanny, Harden still wins.

 

Yet, here we sit, waiting for our general manager to trade Milton Bradley for pennies on the dollar while a dominate pitcher is had by another team who doesn't compensate the Cubs even one cent. If Hendry doesn't believe that Harden can last another year for fear of injury, then make your mind up beforehand and take what you can from the Twins. If Hendry still believed the Cubs could make the playoffs at that time, fine, but at least offer arbitration; either you get a part to full time stud pitcher at a reasonable cost, or you get a draft pick. But because Bradley threw a ball into the bleachers with 2 outs once, and was generally cantankerous with a relentless media, his focus can't be distracted by smart baseball decisions, which he seemingly hasn't been capable of since 2007 or so.

 

I really hope he understands that he's not going to survive a year of Randy Wells, Gorz, and Samardzija in the rotation.

 

Where did you expect Hendry to get the money for to sign Harden? We can't even sign a mid level player like Cameron or Byrd without dumping part of Bradley's salary. In regard to the Twins situation, it is possible that Hendry felt that he would rather take a chance that Ricketts would allow him payroll space to resign Harden, and it was better to take a chance with that than take some B-, C prospects from the Twins. Or its entirely possible that his medical records are so bad that the Hendry didn't want to blow $7 or 8MM on a pitcher that wouldn't contribute much to an already cash strapped team.

 

In some ways I guess it is fitting to allow Hendry to hang himself with his past poor payroll management. It is just extremely painful to watch so far.

 

That's when having a GM who is actually creative with salary and players comes in handy. That we can't keep the guy who is the arguably most talented pitcher at a reasonable cost without netting some sort of compensation is exactly why the Cubs more than likely won't compete next year.

[MSG T]

120+ innings is a safe bet for Harden. 7.5 mil is a reasonable price for that.

 

Safe bet is going a little far, but that would be possible. Still ask your self who pitches in those other 10-16 starts? What does it do to your bullpen when Harden leaves the game in the 3rd or 4th inning? Stop just looking at Harden numbers and thinking would be worth it, and consider what it does to your team.

 

 

Who pitches in those other 10-16 starts? Hm. Dunno. But they're going to pitch in all 30+ now.

 

As I said in the last argument over Harden. They aren't going to go out and get a Halladay or someone else who is good to replace Harden. They are going to use Marshall or Gorz or Shark, the same guys who would have picked up those other 10-15 starts that Harden wouldn't make. In effect, they're going to replace a #1-2 type pitcher with a back of the rotation pitcher.

 

The Cubs pitching staff will be worse because of it.

[cubsfan26]

Dunno. But they're going to pitch in all 30+ now.

 

Which is a big difference then being in the rotation on a regular schedule every five days. Then having guys like Gorzelanny and Marshall having to go back and forth from the bullpen. It's not easy if you pitch in the pen for a month or two, then go out and start 4 or 5 games in a row. Again people aren't paying attention to the human factors involved in this thing and just looking at stats.

 

 

They are going to use Marshall or Gorz or Shark, the same guys who would have picked up those other 10-15 starts that Harden wouldn't make. In effect, they're going to replace a #1-2 type pitcher with a back of the rotation pitcher.

 

Yes but how much better overall? Since Marshall, Gorzelanny or Shark are more likely to pitch better when they are in the rotation consistently every 5th day. Sure they won't pitch better then Harden. But If you have Harden then one of those guys would have to jump from the pen and make a bunch of starts in a row and more then likely going to struggle. Due to not being stretched out and not being on a regular routine. So you gotta factor in Harden, plus having to throw in one of those guys in out of nowhere with it likely they won't pitch as well. Compared to one of Gorzelanny or Marshall every 5th, with one of them hopefully pitching like a solid starter. You are still probably better with Harden and one of those guys struggling in some of his make up starts. But I dunno if they will be 7.5m better. Plus it's a waste to have both Marshall and Gorzelanny on the roster unless you are gonna give one of those guys a spot in the rotation.

Edited December 10, 2009 by cubsfan26

[MSG T]

Dunno. But they're going to pitch in all 30+ now.

 

Which is a big difference then being in the rotation on a regular schedule every five days. Then having guys like Gorzelanny and Marshall having to go back and forth from the bullpen. It's not easy if you pitch in the pen for a month or two, then go out and start 4 or 5 games in a row. Again people aren't paying attention to the human factors involved in this thing and just looking at stats.

 

 

Marshall has done fine in that exact type of situation in the past. Moving either to the rotation full-time makes the pitching staff worse.

[NewUserName]

does this thread just keep changing names and resurfacing? seems like I have read all of this before

[MSG T]

does this thread just keep changing names and resurfacing? seems like I have read all of this before

 

You've only read part of it before. I think parts of the Harden arbitration thread got infected and morphed into this one.

[Shilzzz]

 

Yes but how much better overall? Since Marshall, Gorzelanny or Shark are more likely to pitch better when they are in the rotation consistently every 5th day.

 

Do you, perhaps, have anything other than conjecture to make this argument? I pay attention to those human elements, but think that you are weighing those far too heavily. I am willing to change my opinion here, because I would like to feel more comfortable about losing Harden for nothing, but you have said nothing that's even come close to changing my mind.

[mhuber92211]

was harden worth the 7 million he earned in 2009 statistically speaking?

[CUBZ99]

was harden worth the 7 million he earned in 2009 statistically speaking?

 

Yes.

[Shilzzz]

Rich Harden Cubs 10.91

Tim Lincecum Giants 10.42

J Verlander Tigers 10.09

Jon Lester Red Sox 9.96

Y Gallardo Brewers 9.89

Javier Vazquez Braves 9.77

J Sanchez Giants 9.75

C Kershaw Dodgers 9.74

Zack Greinke Royals 9.50

Ricky Nolasco Marlins 9.49

 

Top k/9 minimum 120IP in 2009. Some good company there. That Harden is .51 higher than Lincecum, who is only .32 higher than Verlander, and the rates bunch up quickly thereafter, speaks even more highly of how filthy Harden is.

[Tim M]

Rich Harden Cubs 10.91

Tim Lincecum Giants 10.42

J Verlander Tigers 10.09

Jon Lester Red Sox 9.96

Y Gallardo Brewers 9.89

Javier Vazquez Braves 9.77

J Sanchez Giants 9.75

C Kershaw Dodgers 9.74

Zack Greinke Royals 9.50

Ricky Nolasco Marlins 9.49

 

Top k/9 minimum 120IP in 2009. Some good company there. That Harden is .51 higher than Lincecum, who is only .32 higher than Verlander, and the rates bunch up quickly thereafter, speaks even more highly of how filthy Harden is.

 

Sanchez is the only guy on that list I would take Harden over.

[cubsfan26]

Marshall has done fine in that exact type of situation in the past. Moving either to the rotation full-time makes the pitching staff worse.

 

He did for a few starts in 08, but not so much last season. He didn't have alot of those chances in 09 though. Even though Marshall pitched pretty well as a starter last year before getting pulled from the rotation. Which was basically because Wells was pitching well, and Marshall was LH and the Cubs needed a LH pitcher in the pen.

 

 

Do you, perhaps, have anything other than conjecture to make this argument? I pay attention to those human elements, but think that you are weighing those far too heavily. I am willing to change my opinion here, because I would like to feel more comfortable about losing Harden for nothing, but you have said nothing that's even come close to changing my mind.

 

Well I guess we can look over Rich Harden starts last year and look the effect they had on the team. But right now I don't have the time to do it. Overall though it's pretty common knowledge that it's pretty hard to shuffle players around. Especially pitchers who's arms get use to throwing 1 or 2 innings, and aren't often stretched out enough to just go out there out of the blue and throw 5-6 innings. Of course if the Cubs have a really good deep pen, and have a good young starter they wanna keep waiting in Triple A. Then the domino effect isn't as bad with having a guy like Harden on the roster. But if you got young struggling relievers in your pen, and gotta shuffle guys back and forth from the pen to the rotation. It does have a pretty big effect on your team as a whole.