Zambrano as Trade Bait?

[jersey cubs fan]

There's a reason why they haven't won a world series in over 100 years.

 

Yea, I'd say bad player development and evaluation coupled with bad contracts.

 

Z has the one contract that they could conceivably move.

 

How is his contract more movable than Lilly or Fukudome's?

 

 

I had not seen Bruce Miles's blog on the Zambrano story

 

Perceptions are a funny thing. All year long, we’ve heard people lament how poor old Randy Wells should have a much better record than his 10-8 with a 2.96 ERA. And it’s true, he could well have a better record.

 

Guess what? So could Big Z. We talked about this a few weeks ago, but we’ll run some numbers past you again here. These are the starts this year, all quality starts, in which Big Z could have gotten a victory, but ended up with a loss or a no-decision:

 

April 11: ND, 6 IP, 3 ER

April 23: L, 7 IP, 3 ER

May 27: ND, 6 IP, 1 ER

June 10: ND, 8 IP, 1ER

June 18: ND, 7 IP, 3 ER

June 23: ND, 7 IP, 3 ER

July 3: ND, 7 IP, 1 ER

July 7: L 6 IP, 2 ER

July 27: ND, 7 IP, 1ER

Sept. 4: ND, 6 IP, 1ER

 

That’s 67.1 innings pitched and 19 earned runs over 10 starts for a 2.54 ERA. Yeah, pitchers like that grow on trees. And a writer in this town wanted simply to cut him loose a few weeks ago?

 

He makes some good points about how difficult it would be to get it done, and how differently Zambrano's quirks are treated than some of his teammates.

 

I'm all for seeing what's out there, but when it comes down to it people are being ridiculous with their "just get rid of him stance" and exaggerating his shortcomings.

[Little Slide Rooter]

"Why, are you guys our general manager now?" he said. "I don't care. If the Cubs want to trade me, it's because they don't like me anymore. I have to move on. What else can I do? I just move on." Zambrano added he doesn't want to waive his no-trade rights, then left, saying: "That's enough."

 

To anyone who heard Zs tone of voice, he sounded upset about the talks and like he really doesnt want to leave the Cubs, but if they dont want him, he'll accept a trade. This does not need to happen.

[gflore34]

What about moving Z for a major league ready SS prospect, I'm talking about someone with range and a non-noodle arm?

[apete6]

What about moving Z for a major league ready SS prospect, I'm talking about someone with range and a non-noodle arm?

 

Like Andres Blanco?

[gflore34]

What about moving Z for a major league ready SS prospect, I'm talking about someone with range and a non-noodle arm?

 

Like Andres Blanco?

 

...and someone who can hit.

[apete6]

What about moving Z for a major league ready SS prospect, I'm talking about someone with range and a non-noodle arm?

 

Like Andres Blanco?

 

...and someone who can hit.

 

That's why I said that. Good SS prospects who are amazing fielders and can hit aren't exactly common. I don't think we're getting Elvis Andrus or Alicedes Escobar for Zambrano and both of those guys are suspect hitters anyway.

[dew1679666265]

What about moving Z for a major league ready SS prospect, I'm talking about someone with range and a non-noodle arm?

 

Like Andres Blanco?

 

...and someone who can hit.

 

That's why I said that. Good SS prospects who are amazing fielders and can hit aren't exactly common. I don't think we're getting Elvis Andrus or Alicedes Escobar for Zambrano and both of those guys are suspect hitters anyway.

 

There's always Brandon Wood. .895 career minor league OPS, but I don't know how well he fields.

 

Not advocating that trade by the way. Just throwing out a top SS prospect who can hit.

[Benchwarmer]

"Why, are you guys our general manager now?" he said. "I don't care. If the Cubs want to trade me, it's because they don't like me anymore. I have to move on. What else can I do? I just move on." Zambrano added he doesn't want to waive his no-trade rights, then left, saying: "That's enough."

 

To anyone who heard Zs tone of voice, he sounded upset about the talks and like he really doesnt want to leave the Cubs, but if they dont want him, he'll accept a trade. This does not need to happen.

 

Who cares about his tone of voice? How about pitching like you have the talent to do. We heard the same whining about not getting rid of Kerry Wood for years. Zambrano has shown he is inconsistent, is not a leader and very self-absorbed. All this cutesy stuff may please some, but I want 20 wins and 30 quality starts on a consistent basis for a guy I'm paying $18M.

[SouthSideRyan]

30 quality starts??

[fromthestretch]

30 quality starts??

 

Yeah, that's setting the bar a bit high.

 

Maddux did that ONCE in his career (1992 with the Cubs). His QS% for his career was 65%.

 

Randy Johnson did that ONCE in his career (2002 with AZ). Career QS% of 67%.

 

Clemens never had more than 27 QS in a season. Career QS% of 66%.

 

For his career, Zambrano is at 63%. The NL average this season is 51%, while Zambrano is at 60% for the season.

[Keener98]

30 quality starts??

 

Screw that If hes making 18 mil a year he better give a quality start every damn time out!

[fromthestretch]

I want 20 wins and 30 quality starts on a consistent basis for a guy I'm paying $18M.

 

I want $30 million per year and perfect health. My chances of getting both of those things are about as good as your chances of finding any pitcher who will give you 20 wins and 30 quality starts on a consistent basis.

[Keener98]

"Why, are you guys our general manager now?" he said. "I don't care. If the Cubs want to trade me, it's because they don't like me anymore. I have to move on. What else can I do? I just move on." Zambrano added he doesn't want to waive his no-trade rights, then left, saying: "That's enough."

 

To anyone who heard Zs tone of voice, he sounded upset about the talks and like he really doesnt want to leave the Cubs, but if they dont want him, he'll accept a trade. This does not need to happen.

 

Who cares about his tone of voice? How about pitching like you have the talent to do. We heard the same whining about not getting rid of Kerry Wood for years. Zambrano has shown he is inconsistent, is not a leader and very self-absorbed. All this cutesy stuff may please some, but I want 20 wins and 30 quality starts on a consistent basis for a guy I'm paying $18M.

 

 

Did you not read what Jersey posted? If not here it is again, and like Bruce Miles says, "Be careful what you wish for".

 

Perceptions are a funny thing. All year long, we’ve heard people lament how poor old Randy Wells should have a much better record than his 10-8 with a 2.96 ERA. And it’s true, he could well have a better record.

 

Guess what? So could Big Z. We talked about this a few weeks ago, but we’ll run some numbers past you again here. These are the starts this year, all quality starts, in which Big Z could have gotten a victory, but ended up with a loss or a no-decision:

 

April 11: ND, 6 IP, 3 ER

April 23: L, 7 IP, 3 ER

May 27: ND, 6 IP, 1 ER

June 10: ND, 8 IP, 1ER

June 18: ND, 7 IP, 3 ER

June 23: ND, 7 IP, 3 ER

July 3: ND, 7 IP, 1 ER

July 7: L 6 IP, 2 ER

July 27: ND, 7 IP, 1ER

Sept. 4: ND, 6 IP, 1ER

 

That’s 67.1 innings pitched and 19 earned runs over 10 starts for a 2.54 ERA. Yeah, pitchers like that grow on trees. And a writer in this town wanted simply to cut him loose a few weeks ago?

 

And this quote from Miles couldnt be any more on point.

 

As I said, Z can be a knucklehead, or at least do knuckleheaded things. But perception again is a funny animal. For example, what if it was Z and not Ryan Dempster who hopped over the fence and broke his toe? Can you imagine the outcry? But it was Demp and it was funny and everybody had a good laugh. And remember, too, when Dempster came into camp in tip-top shape a couple years ago after admitting he had let himself go the previous year? Did anybody say he was “cheating his teammates” as they did when Zambrano talked about being “lazy” about his abs work?

 

On the field, what if it was Z and not Ted Lilly who had bowled over Yadier Molina last year? That’s a play where a pitcher risks big-time injury. When Ted did it, it was a “hard-nosed play.” If Z did it, it’s a major “OMG” moment on the Internet. Teddy Ballgame also has legged out a triple and tried for a stolen base when the “light was red as hell,” according to the manager. If Z lays down a bunt or takes batting practice a little too hard, he’s being “dumb” and “selfish” in a lot of people’s eyes.

[Guest]

"Why, are you guys our general manager now?" he said. "I don't care. If the Cubs want to trade me, it's because they don't like me anymore. I have to move on. What else can I do? I just move on." Zambrano added he doesn't want to waive his no-trade rights, then left, saying: "That's enough."

 

To anyone who heard Zs tone of voice, he sounded upset about the talks and like he really doesnt want to leave the Cubs, but if they dont want him, he'll accept a trade. This does not need to happen.

 

Who cares about his tone of voice? How about pitching like you have the talent to do. We heard the same whining about not getting rid of Kerry Wood for years. Zambrano has shown he is inconsistent, is not a leader and very self-absorbed. All this cutesy stuff may please some, but I want 20 wins and 30 quality starts on a consistent basis for a guy I'm paying $18M.

 

 

Did you not read what Jersey posted? If not here it is again, and like Bruce Miles says, "Be careful what you wish for".

 

Perceptions are a funny thing. All year long, we’ve heard people lament how poor old Randy Wells should have a much better record than his 10-8 with a 2.96 ERA. And it’s true, he could well have a better record.

 

Guess what? So could Big Z. We talked about this a few weeks ago, but we’ll run some numbers past you again here. These are the starts this year, all quality starts, in which Big Z could have gotten a victory, but ended up with a loss or a no-decision:

 

April 11: ND, 6 IP, 3 ER

April 23: L, 7 IP, 3 ER

May 27: ND, 6 IP, 1 ER

June 10: ND, 8 IP, 1ER

June 18: ND, 7 IP, 3 ER

June 23: ND, 7 IP, 3 ER

July 3: ND, 7 IP, 1 ER

July 7: L 6 IP, 2 ER

July 27: ND, 7 IP, 1ER

Sept. 4: ND, 6 IP, 1ER

 

That’s 67.1 innings pitched and 19 earned runs over 10 starts for a 2.54 ERA. Yeah, pitchers like that grow on trees. And a writer in this town wanted simply to cut him loose a few weeks ago?

 

And this quote from Miles couldnt be any more on point.

 

As I said, Z can be a knucklehead, or at least do knuckleheaded things. But perception again is a funny animal. For example, what if it was Z and not Ryan Dempster who hopped over the fence and broke his toe? Can you imagine the outcry? But it was Demp and it was funny and everybody had a good laugh. And remember, too, when Dempster came into camp in tip-top shape a couple years ago after admitting he had let himself go the previous year? Did anybody say he was “cheating his teammates” as they did when Zambrano talked about being “lazy” about his abs work?

 

On the field, what if it was Z and not Ted Lilly who had bowled over Yadier Molina last year? That’s a play where a pitcher risks big-time injury. When Ted did it, it was a “hard-nosed play.” If Z did it, it’s a major “OMG” moment on the Internet. Teddy Ballgame also has legged out a triple and tried for a stolen base when the “light was red as hell,” according to the manager. If Z lays down a bunt or takes batting practice a little too hard, he’s being “dumb” and “selfish” in a lot of people’s eyes.

I love me some Bruce.

[SouthSideRyan]

I think I know what Bruce is getting at...

[dew1679666265]

I want 20 wins and 30 quality starts on a consistent basis for a guy I'm paying $18M.

 

There are currently 4 pitchers being paid $18 million a year. They are Barry Zito, Carlos Zambrano, Johan Santana and CC Sabathia. Of those four players, none have ever won 20 games nor have they ever had 30 quality starts in a season.

 

There has not been a pitcher since before 2005 (at least) that has had 30 quality starts in a season. There are a few in the 25-28 range, but that's as high as it gets. As for 20 wins in a season, there have been 9 pitchers in the majors to do that since 2005. Obviously, none of them are being paid $18+ million a year.

 

You're expecting from Z something no other pitcher has done in the past 5 years (at least).

[Keener98]

I think I know what Bruce is getting at...

 

 

Rac.........

[SouthSideRyan]

And it goes without saying that wins are a really stupid pitching category.

[Backtobanks]

I think I know what Bruce is getting at...

 

Obviously, Bruce is pointing out that Zambrano draws attention to himself and that every negative happening is magnified. Same with Milton Bradley.

[Exile on Waveland]

I demand to know where my hovercraft is!

[Outshined_One]

I demand to know where my hovercraft is!

 

It is full of eels.

[inari]

I think I know what Bruce is getting at...

 

Obviously, Bruce is pointing out that Zambrano draws attention to himself and that every negative happening is magnified. Same with Milton Bradley.

 

Are you sure it's not something else? Something more... SINISTER?!

[Eric Clipperton]

I agree with Bruce's points on how Zambrano's quirks are treated, and appreciate the callout of other media members who disgrace the term journalist. That said, the numbers presented here may back up his point to the average Cubs fan, but in the context of nsbb.com c. 2009, they are ill-informed and potentially misleading. If you analyze a pitcher's "quality start losses" only, well, pitchers with stats as good as Bruce mentions actually DO grow on trees-specifically the cherry tree where he picked these games. This contains massive selection bias, and we could easily rearrange the "stat" to say practically whatever we needed to support our already decided-upon conclusion.

 

Personally, I'd get rid of him if we don't have to pay any salary as long as there is some actual value coming back, no matter how long a shot the prospect is- something like Kyler Burke is a good example of the type of guy I would consider worth a try. If we pay $5MM/yr, I'd expect a couple guys in the acquiring team's top-30 list, more or less. And if we pay $10MM per....well, then why make the deal? Hope the Cubs don't panic to get rid of guys who they have devalued in the media, some of which is due to Lou's ridiculous postgame speeches and other idle chatter. Actually, idle implies this chatter is benign. Idiotic and self-serving are more accurate adjectives, as it frequently hurts the team in ways an old-school baseball man is unlikely to want to hear: devaluing assets, limiting roster and trade flexibility, etc.

 

Basically I'd be all for getting rid of Z if there were reason to believe the Cubs would not panic and spend that money in a reckless and backwards-thinking fashion. i.e. CHONE, a proven closer, speed, grit, chemistry etc.

Bring in some more valuable players, the Lilly and DeRosa of the 06-07 free agency period...not the Soriano.

[dew1679666265]

That said, the numbers presented here may back up his point to the average Cubs fan, but in the context of nsbb.com c. 2009, they are ill-informed and potentially misleading. If you analyze a pitcher's "quality start losses" only, well, pitchers with stats as good as Bruce mentions actually DO grow on trees-specifically the cherry tree where he picked these games. This contains massive selection bias, and we could easily rearrange the "stat" to say practically whatever we needed to support our already decided-upon conclusion.

 

I don't understand how pointing out that Z pitched well enough to win a few extra games is cherry picking stats. The point is that there were games in which Z pitched well to very well in that he didn't get a win.

 

Personally, I'd get rid of him if we don't have to pay any salary as long as there is some actual value coming back, no matter how long a shot the prospect is- something like Kyler Burke is a good example of the type of guy I would consider worth a try. If we pay $5MM/yr, I'd expect a couple guys in the acquiring team's top-30 list, more or less. And if we pay $10MM per....well, then why make the deal?

 

You're in favor of a salary dump of Z? I wouldn't do that - I think he's too valuable for that.

[Eric Clipperton]

That said, the numbers presented here may back up his point to the average Cubs fan, but in the context of nsbb.com c. 2009, they are ill-informed and potentially misleading. If you analyze a pitcher's "quality start losses" only, well, pitchers with stats as good as Bruce mentions actually DO grow on trees-specifically the cherry tree where he picked these games. This contains massive selection bias, and we could easily rearrange the "stat" to say practically whatever we needed to support our already decided-upon conclusion.

 

I don't understand how pointing out that Z pitched well enough to win a few extra games is cherry picking stats. The point is that there were games in which Z pitched well to very well in that he didn't get a win.

 

Personally, I'd get rid of him if we don't have to pay any salary as long as there is some actual value coming back, no matter how long a shot the prospect is- something like Kyler Burke is a good example of the type of guy I would consider worth a try. If we pay $5MM/yr, I'd expect a couple guys in the acquiring team's top-30 list, more or less. And if we pay $10MM per....well, then why make the deal?

 

You're in favor of a salary dump of Z? I wouldn't do that - I think he's too valuable for that.

The point that Z didn't get a win in some games he pitched well in does not tell us any meaningful information about the skill or value of the pitcher. Pitcher value is independent of wins. Every pitcher has games they pitch well in but lose, and pitch poorly while lucking into a win. Who cares?

 

I am right about even either way on a pure salary dump of Z- i could take it or leave it. How much do you think he is worth?