Should we be worried about the Brewers?

[Little Slide Rooter]

Theyve alwayd been streaky. Just when they seem unstopable, they go ice cold. Then just as they seem to have collapsed, they get red hot again, an repeat process all season. More likely than not, they're pitching will do them in, but they have been consitantly great all season, with a .688 winning % for the Spring. Here are some of their offesnsice lines

 

Fielder(whose reportedly back on the meat) .273/.374/.623 6HR

Weeks .312/.425/.506 3HR

Hart .351/.383/.757 7HR

Hardy .403/.488/.761 4HR

Casey freaking McGehee .328/.339/.639 6HR

Mike Cameron .267/.366/.517 3 HR

 

Meanwhile, we have 1 guy with an OPS near 1.000 and he happens to be conveniantly lodged in the leadoff spot like a racoon in a crawlspace.

[mcgoobs]

No.

[Sammys Boombox]

No.

 

And no.

[Cubswin11]

No because 4 out of every 5 games they will have someone pitching who isn't Yovanni Gallarado and instead one of Suppan/Looper/Parra/Bush none of which will post a era lower than 4.2 and all will have .500 records.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Theyve alwayd been streaky. Just when they seem unstopable, they go ice cold. Then just as they seem to have collapsed, they get red hot again, an repeat process all season. More likely than not, they're pitching will do them in, but they have been consitantly great all season, with a .688 winning % for the Spring. Here are some of their offesnsice lines

 

Fielder(whose reportedly back on the meat) .273/.374/.623 6HR

Weeks .312/.425/.506 3HR

Hart .351/.383/.757 7HR

Hardy .403/.488/.761 4HR

Casey freaking McGehee .328/.339/.639 6HR

Mike Cameron .267/.366/.517 3 HR

 

Meanwhile, we have 1 guy with an OPS near 1.000 and he happens to be conveniantly lodged in the leadoff spot like a racoon in a crawlspace.

 

You need to remind yourself that Spring numbers mean very, very little. And also that the Brewers' pitching is hilarious.

[erik316wttn]

Their pitching is horrible. They're going to be on the wrong end of a lot of 8-6 games this year.

[UMFan83]

Haha remember in 2005 when the Cubs were tearing the cover off the ball in spring training and everyone was talking about how awesome the Cubs offense was going to be that year and then the season started and everyone struggled. Players are going to hit in Arizona, and do yourself a favor and don't take anything from spring numbers, because every single year you will end up looking like a fool.

 

I'm actually more worried about the Cardinals. Every passing day I think about their team more and think about how dangerous they could be.

[FergieJ31]

Spring training stats are utterly meaningless at a purely statistical level - avg correlation with regular season stats is historically insignificant.

 

There are only two reasons why the stats mean anything at all: (1) determining position battles and (2) as a rough indicator of health.

[17 Seconds]

Of course we should worry about the Brewers, but not because of spring training numbers.

 

Seriously, Casey McGehee has raked in 2 straight spring trainings. That should tell you all you need to know.

[17 Seconds]

No because 4 out of every 5 games they will have someone pitching who isn't Yovanni Gallarado and instead one of Suppan/Looper/Parra/Bush none of which will post a era lower than 4.2 and all will have .500 records.

 

Parra and Bush could easily put up ERA's lower than 4.20.

[dew1679666265]

No because 4 out of every 5 games they will have someone pitching who isn't Yovanni Gallarado and instead one of Suppan/Looper/Parra/Bush none of which will post a era lower than 4.2 and all will have .500 records.

 

Parra and Bush could easily put up ERA's lower than 4.20.

 

I wouldn't say easily for Bush, though he could do it. He's had two seasons in his career where he's put up an ERA under 4.20 and one of those (last year) was 4.18.

 

The projections range from 3.98 to 4.50 - with Bill James projecting the lowest and only ERA below 4.20.

[Rob]

Spring training stats are utterly meaningless at a purely statistical level - avg correlation with regular season stats is historically insignificant.

 

There are only two reasons why the stats mean anything at all: (1) determining position battles and (2) as a rough indicator of health.

 

That's not entirely true. There is a minor expected bump in the right direction for people who have surpassed their career numbers by very large margins.

 

That said, I'm still not terribly concerned.

[razzzorsharp]

God no. All they have are two MVP canidates, a host of other hitters, a bullpen that is deeper than last year, an ace in the making, a deep bench, two pretty good SP, and two servicable ones to round out the staff.

[FergieJ31]

Spring training stats are utterly meaningless at a purely statistical level - avg correlation with regular season stats is historically insignificant.

 

There are only two reasons why the stats mean anything at all: (1) determining position battles and (2) as a rough indicator of health.

 

That's not entirely true. There is a minor expected bump in the right direction for people who have surpassed their career numbers by very large margins.

 

Can you point to any published work on this? I'm extremely dubious that a regression study conducted honestly (without cherrypicking) would have any predictive value.

[treebird]

God no. All they have are two MVP canidates, a host of other hitters, a bullpen that is deeper than last year, an ace in the making, a deep bench, two pretty good SP, and two servicable ones to round out the staff.

 

that's an amazingly charitable description of their rotation.

[Sosa21MVP]

with a .688 winning % for the Spring.

 

Who cares?

[ELCABALLO45]

The 2009 Milwaukee Brewers will go as far as Gallardo and Parra take us.

 

Gallardo in my opinion is going to be a stud. Parra wore down alot last year and can be wild at times. But he does have a great arm. I don't think he will every be a ACE but he could be a solid number 2 or strong number 3.

 

Braun,Fielder,Hart, Cameron and Hardy are all going to hit. Weeks is a big question mark, he has the talent but yeah.. we all know how this goes. Make or break year for him. Kendall is Kendall and Hall is also a question mark as well.

 

I think the Brewers offense will be fine. Its going to come down to pitching. And if Gallardo steps up and Parra takes a step foward and Hoffman is decent. We can compete. However.. there is alot of IF's in there.

 

This is the Cubs division to win and there is no question about it. But it would be silly to rule us out already before the 1st pitch is even thrown.

[dew1679666265]

God no. All they have are two MVP canidates, a host of other hitters, a bullpen that is deeper than last year, an ace in the making, a deep bench, two pretty good SP, and two servicable ones to round out the staff.

 

Yovani Gallardo: 122 ERA+ 101 K: 37 BB (2007 stats)

Manny Parra: 98 ERA+ 147 K: 75 BB

Jeff Suppan: 87 ERA+ 90 K: 67 BB

Dave Bush: 103 ERA+ 109 K: 48 BB

Seth McClung: 107 ERA+ 87 K: 55 BB

 

Those are the numbers of the Brewers' rotation members last year (I used Gallardo's 07 stats since he was hurt last year). I agree with you on Gallardo (ace) and I think Parra will improve to be a pretty good pitcher this year. The rest weren't that good last year and likely won't be much better this year.

 

Dave Bush was decent, but Suppan and McClung were pretty below average.

[UMFan83]

I swear people have been saying that it's been Weeks' make or break year for the last 3 seasons

[SouthSideRyan]

God no. All they have are two MVP canidates, a host of other hitters, a bullpen that is deeper than last year, an ace in the making, a deep bench, two pretty good SP, and two servicable ones to round out the staff.

 

that's an amazingly charitable description of their rotation.

 

That's amazingly charitable for mostt every topic.

 

Their "2 MVP candidates" are DHs who couldn't crack 900 OPSs last year.

 

Their "deeper bullpen" consists of trading out Salomon Torres and Brian Shouse(their 2 best pen guys last year) for full seasons of Todd Coffey and the awful Jorge Julio. Oh, and the ancient Trevor Hoffman.(DL right now)

 

The deep bench has the Gathright like Chris Duffy, and the despicable Casey McGehee. Their 2nd bat off the bench is a 38 year old Craig Counsell.

 

Manny Parra's servicable, I think it's a bit premature to call him pretty good. Jeff Suppan hasn't been any good since leaving St. Louis, and I don't think it's a stretch to think the same about Braden Looper.

 

The Brewers have not upgraded anywhere from a team last year that won the wild card on the last day of the season and was 11 games worse than the Cubs in pythag. They've since lost their 2 best starting pitchers, their 2 best bullpen pitchers, and their 2 best bench bats.

[Rob]

Spring training stats are utterly meaningless at a purely statistical level - avg correlation with regular season stats is historically insignificant.

 

There are only two reasons why the stats mean anything at all: (1) determining position battles and (2) as a rough indicator of health.

 

That's not entirely true. There is a minor expected bump in the right direction for people who have surpassed their career numbers by very large margins.

 

Can you point to any published work on this? I'm extremely dubious that a regression study conducted honestly (without cherrypicking) would have any predictive value.

 

It was from a BP article at the end of spring training a few seasons ago. I could pull the article, but I'm far too lazy to do all that work for a "oh, okay."

 

Rest assured, it was just a very minor bump for players who had absolutely ridiculous ST numbers.

[XZero771679666304]

God no. All they have are two MVP canidates, a host of other hitters, a bullpen that is deeper than last year, an ace in the making, a deep bench, two pretty good SP, and two servicable ones to round out the staff.

 

that's an amazingly charitable description of their rotation.

 

That's amazingly charitable for mostt every topic.

 

Their "2 MVP candidates" are DHs who couldn't crack 900 OPSs last year.

 

Their "deeper bullpen" consists of trading out Salomon Torres and Brian Shouse(their 2 best pen guys last year) for full seasons of Todd Coffey and the awful Jorge Julio. Oh, and the ancient Trevor Hoffman.(DL right now)

 

The deep bench has the Gathright like Chris Duffy, and the despicable Casey McGehee. Their 2nd bat off the bench is a 38 year old Craig Counsell.

 

Manny Parra's servicable, I think it's a bit premature to call him pretty good. Jeff Suppan hasn't been any good since leaving St. Louis, and I don't think it's a stretch to think the same about Braden Looper.

 

The Brewers have not upgraded anywhere from a team last year that won the wild card on the last day of the season and was 11 games worse than the Cubs in pythag. They've since lost their 2 best starting pitchers, their 2 best bullpen pitchers, and their 2 best bench bats.

 

Yeah, that about sums it up. Not to be inflammatory, but I think a lot of crew fans are having a hard time coping with going from nowhere to being hyped as the best young team in the game and now fading back again.

 

The offense will be good, but the pitching staff will be awful, outside of Gallardo and Hoffman.

 

The Cardinals are much more frightening, though much of that depends on the health/stamina of Carpenter.

[brewersbrewers]

I am not worried about the cubs, like the Brewers, the cubs aren't as good as they were last year either. If you think about it the cubs over achieved while the Brewers under achieved, and we won't have Ned to makes all those big mistakes like he did last year.

[Soul]

I am not worried about the cubs, like the Brewers, the cubs aren't as good as they were last year either. If you think about it the cubs over achieved while the Brewers under achieved, and we won't have Ned to makes all those big mistakes like he did last year.

 

Underachieved? How many games would the Brewers have won without CC pitching every 3rd day in September?

[TruffleShuffle]

I swear people have been saying that it's been Weeks' make or break year for the last 3 seasons

 

that's because every year he neither makes nor breaks. he seems to play really badly for a stretch of the season, but also plays really well for part of the season and reminds people that he could be a really good player.