Tribune: Wood Signs Deal with Cleveland (p. 29)

[RynoRules]

I don't get this. It makes no sense.

 

What the Yankees did makes me think there is some other data point out there that we don't know about.

[Backtobanks]

It's always interesting to read the Hendry-bashing rants. What if the Cubs offered arbitration and Wood accepted $9 million for one year. The Cubs then trade Gregg for a mid-level prospect. Meanwhile, the Cubs can't afford Peavy and a veteran RF. Harden and Wood have their usual problems with injuries and guess what happens - Hendry gets bashed for spending money on Wood, not getting Peavy, not filling RF adequately, giving away Ceda for nothing, etc. In other words, Hendry is bashed either way. Also, for all of the "pretend" GMs out there, we have a thread going about spending money on Renteria. The GM's job sure looks easier from this side of the computer screen.

[JeffH]

The GM's job sure looks easier from this side of the computer screen.

 

I would, most likely, not be a good MLB GM.

 

That is irrelevant.

 

Jim Hendry is not good at his job.

[Banedon]

The GM's job sure looks easier from this side of the computer screen.

 

I would, most likely, not be a good MLB GM.

 

That is irrelevant.

 

Jim Hendry is not good at his job.

 

I don't know why I'm bothering to jump in on this but...

 

2 straight division championships. Is the WS the only measure of whether a GM is good or not? Are there 29 bad GM's every year? Hendry has made his share of mistakes, no question. I don't always agree with him (this being one of those times), but like you pointed out, we'd probably be bad GM's. And the moves he's made have gotten us in a position to win the last couple of years, and the future looks good. I'm not sure what more you want. Yeah yeah, WS...

 

If you want to argue that he's not great at his job, I'd probably agree. But not good at his job? That's overstating.

[UMFan83]

This might fly under the radar, but check out what the Yankees did...

 

The Yankees announced they are not offering arbitration to any of their free agents. It means they will not get draft-pick compensation when they sign elsewhere.

 

A recent rule change means that the Yankees are still allowed to re-sign any of the players.

 

So, this leads me to two possible conclusions about why Hendry declined arbitration.

 

1) He thinks he can re-sign Wood.

2) Teams are declining arbitration in order to keep their budgets down, as more draft picks require more money to be spent and someone accepting arbitration could result in the team paying more money than expected.

 

Does anyone know about this rule change, by the way?

 

It's still cheaper to sign first round picks then have to acquire your talent by overpaying for them on the FA market. Unless of course internally Hendry doesn't trust his scouts enough to make competent first round picks. If that's the case we have a problem.

[Blue W]

I totally get the man-love for Kerry. I share it. But if the choice is Peavy for four years/$63M or Wood for one year/$9M, I think this decision is the right one. We couldn't take the risk of tying up money that could land us another ace.

 

This is a big if, and a deal could fall through at any time for Peavy, or never come together in the first place. But Hendry had to put us in a position to have a legitimate shot at Peavy working within the budget. Unfortunately, Kerry was the price we have to pay for some flexibility right now.

 

This is the problem with arm chair GMs: they never have to take the risks to make something great happen. They never have to make the hard decisions that could potentialy blow up in their faces. In their minds, their records are perfect and Hendry is a dolt for not following their cyber advice. They hold these beliefs despite all of the Bobby Hills and Hee Sop Chois that they were sure were players of the future - only to be proven wrong time and time again. I know, because I'm guilty of being an armchair GM myself. We all are.

 

Where I draw the line is irrationality - as in the irrational hatred of Jim Hendry. I understood it a bit more during the Baker years, but only because I had a non-irrational hatred of Dust Bag and Hendry seemed to be allowing the toothpick to do his thinking for him. In the last couple years, it makes no sense at all.

 

I'm not going to outline the unprecedented (since WWII) success the Cubs have enjoyed under Hendry. It's been done. I'm not going to show that Hendry's good and even great deals have far outweighed marginal mistakes. I'm not going to make claims about how it is crazy to hold Hendry accountable for two bad playoff performances, when he was the guy who built the teams that got there.

 

I'm just going to say, happy Holidays, Jim. I'm looking forward to another great year of Cubs baseball and making the playoffs for the third straight season. I can't wait to see what you do to make us better in 2009.

 

And to Woody: thanks for the memories. You'll always be the Kid K to me.

[CubColtPacer]

As someone mentioned the Todd Walker situation is not really applicable to Wood. Walker was cut and the Padres had to pay only 1/6 of the salary, but part of the deal was that the Padres had to show a reasonable argument showing that Walker was not better than the players they decided to keep. The fact that he was only average the year before and had really struggled in Spring Training (every middle infielder played better than him in ST) made it a hard grievance for the union to win, and so they chose not to fight.

 

With Wood, the Cubs would have to show that all 7 relievers were kept instead of him for a reason other than the money. That would be nearly impossible.

 

I also believe that Wood would get 10+ in arbitration. The fact that he made 8 million or so last year hurts the Cubs case for him to not get a substantial raise. Looking at comparable closer salaries hurts the Cubs. Part of it would depend on how the market comes out for K-Rod and Fuentes, but I think he would have gotten a lot of money.

 

With that said, I still think this was a mistake. I think there are valid reasons for both sides of the argument, but I find the risk of offering arbitration to be a much stronger case. The Cubs could really use those draft picks. I would only change my mind if it came out that the budget was both extremely tight and the medical reports were iffy on him. It will also be hard to judge the market for Wood, as he just became more desirable to any team without the pick attached. He might receive an offer that he otherwise wouldn't have.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

2 straight division championships. Is the WS the only measure of whether a GM is good or not? Are there 29 bad GM's every year? Hendry has made his share of mistakes, no question. I don't always agree with him (this being one of those times), but like you pointed out, we'd probably be bad GM's. And the moves he's made have gotten us in a position to win the last couple of years, and the future looks good. I'm not sure what more you want. Yeah yeah, WS...

 

If you want to argue that he's not great at his job, I'd probably agree. But not good at his job? That's overstating.

 

I think the analysis has to go a little deeper than "two straight division titles? Yes or no."

 

He's won two straight division titles (one of which was won with an actually good team) by throwing heavily backloaded contracts at anything that moved and leaving us with little in the farm system. I question whether the future looks all that bright.

 

He'd be a horrible GM if he had done all that without the division titles, but I'm not sure doing it with them makes him a good one.

[bukie]

The frustration isn't over the Cubs not re-signing Kerry Wood, or even attempting to re-sign Kerry Wood.

 

The frustration is that the Cubs are dumping their second most effective reliever for nothing, because of a payroll crunch caused by overpaying for other junk over the last 3 years, and then making a trade that absolutely didn't have to be made that early in the offseason, leaving no wiggle room to even try to get pick compensation. All this to save 3 million and weaken an already weak farm system without doing anything to rectify that problem.

[Wheelimus]

It hurts like hell, but I took a hint when Hendry said he wasn't coming back and came to terms with it. Losing the draft picks hurt like hell anew, though.

 

Then again, things are shaping up to be weird this offseason. So much talent but it really feels like the money has dried up. Damn economy.

 

We'll be fine. Time for Marmol to shine. Time for Shark and Marshall to step up. Maybe we can even remember that we still have Michael Wuertz.

[sneakypower]

D'Backs GM Josh Byrnes said getting two draft picks for Dunn was a premise of the July trade, but since then "the poor economy has affected some things."

[jersey cubs fan]

2 straight division championships. Is the WS the only measure of whether a GM is good or not?

 

He's been here for a lot longer than 2 years, and in order to win those 2 divisions (with weak competition) he absolutely sold out the future. He needed unprecedented financial freedom to win those titles. We've had to deal with some absolutely horrible teams during his tenure and it's virtually assured that we will deal with the same problem very soon because of his horrible management decisions. A monkey could win divisions with the money Jim had at his disposal the past 2 years. A good GM shouldn't have to shell out the contracts he did for the guys he got. The foundation should have been in place years before. A good team should have had the Cubs winning 85 games each and every year with multiple 90+ win seasons.

[Soul]

The frustration isn't over the Cubs not re-signing Kerry Wood, or even attempting to re-sign Kerry Wood.

 

The frustration is that the Cubs are dumping their second most effective reliever for nothing, because of a payroll crunch caused by overpaying for other junk over the last 3 years, and then making a trade that absolutely didn't have to be made that early in the offseason, leaving no wiggle room to even try to get pick compensation. All this to save 3 million and weaken an already weak farm system without doing anything to rectify that problem.

 

This is one reason why some of us continue to say Hendry's not all that great a GM.

[SouthSideRyan]

It's always interesting to read the Hendry-bashing rants. What if the Cubs offered arbitration and Wood accepted $9 million for one year. The Cubs then trade Gregg for a mid-level prospect. Meanwhile, the Cubs can't afford Peavy and a veteran RF. Harden and Wood have their usual problems with injuries and guess what happens - Hendry gets bashed for spending money on Wood, not getting Peavy, not filling RF adequately, giving away Ceda for nothing, etc. In other words, Hendry is bashed either way. Also, for all of the "pretend" GMs out there, we have a thread going about spending money on Renteria. The GM's job sure looks easier from this side of the computer screen.

 

Jake Peavy and a RF are going to cost a combined 4M?

[Guancous]

The Cubs probably had the best roster 1-25 in the NL last year. They won 97 games. Hendry acquired Harden and potentially Peavy without losing major league, All-Star talent. Hendry may not be Branch Rickey but calling him bad at his job is absolutely ludicrous. At some point you have to blame the players.

[davearm2]

I understand the decision to let Woody walk... the argument that spending that kind of money on a closer is an incorrect allocation of limited resources is probably a valid one, sentimentality aside. Forgoing the potential compensatory draft picks is a mistake on Hendry's fault, though... and just one of many mistakes he's made this offseason.

 

Dempster's contract was a HUGE gamble, and we probably would have been better served to just let him walk and pocket the draft picks. And the budget room he's sucking up is apparently pretty important too.

 

And the handling of the Ceda/Gregg/Marmol thing has been pretty ridiculous too. The trade would actually make a bit of sense if the plan was for the Cubs to use Gregg as the closer so he's a Type A after this season, and then let him walk and pocket a couple high draft picks. It'd be trading Ceda and a few mil for a couple high draft picks, essentially. If we'd become less enamored with Ceda, that's certainly defensible.

 

But no... we trade Ceda for a guy who is no sure bet to be any better than him this year, to say nothing of the price difference (which certainly comes into play). And then to top it off, Lou pretty much names Marmol his closer which means we'll be getting nothing for Gregg after this season, barring something unexpected. That'll jack up Marmol's price in arby even higher, too.

 

It's no wonder our farm system is quickly becoming a laughing stock... Hendry is completely bungling the process of infusing the system with high level talent.

I'm confused as to why you think Gregg needs to be used as a closer to maintain Type A status.

[Tarver]

The Cubs probably had the best roster 1-25 in the NL last year. They won 97 games. Hendry acquired Harden and potentially Peavy without losing major league, All-Star talent. Hendry may not be Branch Rickey but calling him bad at his job is absolutely ludicrous. At some point you have to blame the players.

 

What? Why did you include that?

[Guancous]

The Cubs probably had the best roster 1-25 in the NL last year. They won 97 games. Hendry acquired Harden and potentially Peavy without losing major league, All-Star talent. Hendry may not be Branch Rickey but calling him bad at his job is absolutely ludicrous. At some point you have to blame the players.

 

What? Why did you include that?

 

I thought I'd throw a bone since this is a Peavy thread.

[davearm2]

lol

 

cue up the "playoffs are a crapshoot" responses

People say that because it's true.

 

Folks are quick to point out (and rightly so) that it's silly to judge a starting pitcher based on wins and losses, because lots of other things are at work, and besides, the SP is usually long gone by the time the game actually ends.

 

Well guess what. For all intents and purposes, a GM's job constructing the current year's roster ends long about August 31 with the trade deadline. (And arguably the July 31 non-waiver deadline is the more appropriate finish line.)

 

8/31 is a full 2 months before ol Bud hands over the trophy to the WS winner. Everything that happens in that intervening 2 months is out of the GM's hands.

[davearm2]

The frustration isn't over the Cubs not re-signing Kerry Wood, or even attempting to re-sign Kerry Wood.

 

The frustration is that the Cubs are dumping their second most effective reliever for nothing, because of a payroll crunch caused by overpaying for other junk over the last 3 years, and then making a trade that absolutely didn't have to be made that early in the offseason, leaving no wiggle room to even try to get pick compensation. All this to save 3 million and weaken an already weak farm system without doing anything to rectify that problem.

List for me the overpaid junk that's currently under contract with the Cubs, preventing the retention of Kerry Wood.

 

I'll get you started: Jason Marquis. Most indications are that Hendry's trying to wiggle out of that one as we speak.

 

Who else you got?

[sneakypower]

Soriano

 

admittedly i love watching him play, but he's not nearly as beneficial to the team as you'd hope for from a guy with his salary

[BigbadB]

But Hendry probably has a better idea of how the market is. So for Hendry not to offer Wood arbitration tells me the market isn't what the players thought it would. The fact that were in December and the only free agents to sign with anybody are Mike Hampton and Jeremy Affeldt should tell us something.

 

I don't buy this at all. The reason Mike Hampton and Jeremy Affeldt are the only ones to sign so far is because teams are no longer willing to cough up draft picks on players before the arbitration deadline, especially if they don't have to.

 

Anyone who believes the Giants would sign Bob Howry before last night isn't facing reality. Anyone who believes that Bob Howry would go anywhere but Chicago if the Cubs offered arbitration is not facing reality.

 

Now that the arbitration deadline has passed, teams will be much more willing to start negotiating with players (especially the players who were not offered arby).

 

Rafael Furcal has been one of the most talked about free agents this offseason. Why? Because he's not going to cost anyone any picks.

 

Sure, Tex and Sabathia are hot commodities as well, but those are two guys that teams are willing to cough up draft picks to land. After that list, everyone else is a gamble.

 

Kerry Wood would have been a gamble worth taking, IMO. I'm fully expecting the Texas Rangers to offer Kerry a 3 or 4 year deal this offseason. I think they still would have done it even if the Cubs offered arby, but now they stand to sign him without costing any compensation. And this is where I think Hendry really screwed this up.

 

Yes, there is always that gamble that Kerry doesn't attract the interest he desires and he accepts arbitration. But, if that day comes, you figure out a way to make it work. It's a one year contract.

 

Bottom line, there are teams out there looking to spend money to make their teams better. 4 teams have expressed interest in Marquis. If the Angels lose out on Tex, they might have interest in Derrek Lee. If the Angels did get Tex, San Fran might have some interest in a guy like Lee, especially when they lose out on many of the free agents they are interested in. Lee for Nate Schierholtz and a pitching prospect would be a huge savings, and I think Schierholtz could match Lee's production right now.

 

I don't think Wood accepting arby messes up the chances to get Peavy. The Cubs have plenty of trade pieces to reduce the payroll if put in a pinch.

 

This is just a bad move by Hendry. Pure and simple.

[bukie]

The frustration isn't over the Cubs not re-signing Kerry Wood, or even attempting to re-sign Kerry Wood.

 

The frustration is that the Cubs are dumping their second most effective reliever for nothing, because of a payroll crunch caused by overpaying for other junk over the last 3 years, and then making a trade that absolutely didn't have to be made that early in the offseason, leaving no wiggle room to even try to get pick compensation. All this to save 3 million and weaken an already weak farm system without doing anything to rectify that problem.

List for me the overpaid junk that's currently under contract with the Cubs, preventing the retention of Kerry Wood.

 

I'll get you started: Jason Marquis. Most indications are that Hendry's trying to wiggle out of that one as we speak.

 

Who else you got?

You don't think the 40 million designated to Fukudome, Marquis and Soriano is a deterrent?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

(this post must be read in chant form)

 

The frustration isn't over the Cubs not re-signing Kerry Wood, or even attempting to re-sign Kerry Wood.

 

The frustration is that the Cubs are dumping their second most effective reliever for nothing, because of a payroll crunch caused by overpaying for other junk over the last 3 years, and then making a trade that absolutely didn't have to be made that early in the offseason, leaving no wiggle room to even try to get pick compensation. All this to save 3 million and weaken an already weak farm system without doing anything to rectify that problem.

List for me the overpaid junk that's currently under contract with the Cubs, preventing the retention of Kerry Wood.

 

I'll get you started: Jason Marquis. Most indications are that Hendry's trying to wiggle out of that one as we speak.

 

Who else you got?

 

Fukudome

[Soul]

The Cubs probably had the best roster 1-25 in the NL last year. They won 97 games. Hendry acquired Harden and potentially Peavy without losing major league, All-Star talent. Hendry may not be Branch Rickey but calling him bad at his job is absolutely ludicrous. At some point you have to blame the players.

 

What? Why did you include that?

 

I thought I'd throw a bone since this is a Peavy thread.

 

Hasn't lost all-star talent? If you're going to include this offseason into the mix, then have a look at the 2008 NL all star pitching roster:

 

Pitchers

 

Pos Player B/T

 

P Aaron Cook, COL R/R

 

P Ryan Dempster, CHC R/R

 

P Dan Haren, ARI R/R

 

P Brad Lidge, PHI R/R

 

P Tim Lincecum, SF L/R

 

P Carlos Marmol, CHC R/R

 

P Ben Sheets, MIL R/R

 

P Edinson Volquez, CIN R/R

 

P Billy Wagner, NYM L/L

 

P Brandon Webb, ARI R/R

 

P Brian Wilson, SF R/R

 

P Kerry Wood, CHC R/R

 

P Carlos Zambrano, CHC S/R