Jake Peavy: Available.

[SouthSideRyan]

I think you could pull it off if you agreed to take Greene along with Peavy.

 

So something like Pie/Cedeno/Marshall/Adkins.

 

If Towers takes that, Hendry has some nasty pictures of him.

 

That platter wouldn't land Peavy alone, let alone Greene.

 

I'm thinking Pie/Theriot/Marshall/Veal/Adkins might get them to discuss that deal.

 

I'm thinking he's operating under the assumption that Greene has negative trade value. Not outrageous depending on just how much money Moores needs to recoup.

 

Honestly, I think Pie/Castillo/Marshall would be a decent start.

[Jehrico]

Soto WILL BE a Cub in 2009 but it does not stop other teams from ask for him in return in any trade discussions. The Cubs farm system is pretty weak so that's a huge reach saying that the Cubs even have five Gerut or Hairston level prospects in the minors. I specifically choose those two to mention because at one time in the distant past they were both well overrated prospects, just like almost anyone in the Cubs system and that's exactly what the Padres will try to avoid.

Gerut and Hairston have not been 'prospects' of any kind in quite some time. Both are full-time MLB players and have been for a few years. Comparing them to the Cubs names being floated - besides probably Cedeno, who has been around a couple years now - is not really an accurate comparison.

I don't know where you get your information, but Gerut hasn't played anything close to full time since 4 years ago, and Hairston has never been a full time player career. He has yet to break 350 ABs in a season. They are both absolutely comparable to Cedeno and Johnson in terms of value. Not that this argument has anything to do with any teams chances of landing Peavey.

[Andy]

Soto WILL BE a Cub in 2009 but it does not stop other teams from ask for him in return in any trade discussions. The Cubs farm system is pretty weak so that's a huge reach saying that the Cubs even have five Gerut or Hairston level prospects in the minors. I specifically choose those two to mention because at one time in the distant past they were both well overrated prospects, just like almost anyone in the Cubs system and that's exactly what the Padres will try to avoid.

Gerut and Hairston have not been 'prospects' of any kind in quite some time. Both are full-time MLB players and have been for a few years. Comparing them to the Cubs names being floated - besides probably Cedeno, who has been around a couple years now - is not really an accurate comparison.

I don't know where you get your information, but Gerut hasn't played anything close to full time since 4 years ago, and Hairston has never been a full time player career. He has yet to break 350 ABs in a season. They are both absolutely comparable to Cedeno and Johnson in terms of value. Not that this argument has anything to do with any teams chances of landing Peavey.

I meant full time as in they're always with the big club.

[Jehrico]

Soto WILL BE a Cub in 2009 but it does not stop other teams from ask for him in return in any trade discussions. The Cubs farm system is pretty weak so that's a huge reach saying that the Cubs even have five Gerut or Hairston level prospects in the minors. I specifically choose those two to mention because at one time in the distant past they were both well overrated prospects, just like almost anyone in the Cubs system and that's exactly what the Padres will try to avoid.

Gerut and Hairston have not been 'prospects' of any kind in quite some time. Both are full-time MLB players and have been for a few years. Comparing them to the Cubs names being floated - besides probably Cedeno, who has been around a couple years now - is not really an accurate comparison.

I don't know where you get your information, but Gerut hasn't played anything close to full time since 4 years ago, and Hairston has never been a full time player career. He has yet to break 350 ABs in a season. They are both absolutely comparable to Cedeno and Johnson in terms of value. Not that this argument has anything to do with any teams chances of landing Peavey.

I meant full time as in they're always with the big club.

that means little, especially when that big club has the crap on it's roster that SD has.

[CubFanPhilly]

Samardzija, Marshall, Gaudin, Pie & Theriot/Cedeno could be an interesting proposal for Peavy & Greene.

 

Assuming the Cubs either re-signed Wood or picked up a couple of relievers in FA, and assuming they are unable to dump Marquis, the payroll would be around $140 mil. Middle relief would be thin (Cotts, Wuertz, Guzman, Ascanio, Hart, et. al.). Obviously, Dempster would be gone and the offense would be only marginally upgraded, but it'd be a hell of a rotation. The big concern I'd have is the $140+ mil. that the Cubs would have committed to 2010 (before signing Harden and with few obvious candidates remaining for 5th starter).

[nilodnayr]

Can we get a few things straight here?

 

1) Shark is NOT getting traded. His NTC is not one of those "give me a NTC so I can get a sweatener when you trade me to one of the teams I wouldn't mind playing for". STOP CREATING TRADE SCENARIOS INCLUDING HIM.

 

2) The Padres will NOT be taking back salary. They aren't taking Lee, they aren't trading AGonz for nothing short of 3x what they could get for Peavy.

 

And of course, Soto isn't getting traded, but I know people aren't really suggesting trade scenarios involving him, just suggesting something of possibly comparable value.

[USSoccer]

I think you could pull it off if you agreed to take Greene along with Peavy.

 

So something like Pie/Cedeno/Marshall/Adkins.

 

If Towers takes that, Hendry has some nasty pictures of him.

 

That platter wouldn't land Peavy alone, let alone Greene.

 

I'm thinking Pie/Theriot/Marshall/Veal/Adkins might get them to discuss that deal.

 

I'm thinking he's operating under the assumption that Greene has negative trade value. Not outrageous depending on just how much money Moores needs to recoup.

 

Honestly, I think Pie/Castillo/Marshall would be a decent start.

 

 

This is exactly what I'm thinking. Whatever he's owed in 2009, it's probably a hell of a lot more than San Diego wants to pay for him. He's not going to get cheaper. They aren't going to contend, so they'd be probably wanting to tack him on to any Peavy deal, much like Willis was dealt with Cabrera.

[SouthSideRyan]

I think you could pull it off if you agreed to take Greene along with Peavy.

 

So something like Pie/Cedeno/Marshall/Adkins.

 

If Towers takes that, Hendry has some nasty pictures of him.

 

That platter wouldn't land Peavy alone, let alone Greene.

 

I'm thinking Pie/Theriot/Marshall/Veal/Adkins might get them to discuss that deal.

 

I'm thinking he's operating under the assumption that Greene has negative trade value. Not outrageous depending on just how much money Moores needs to recoup.

 

Honestly, I think Pie/Castillo/Marshall would be a decent start.

 

 

This is exactly what I'm thinking. Whatever he's owed in 2009, it's probably a hell of a lot more than San Diego wants to pay for him. He's not going to get cheaper. They aren't going to contend, so they'd be probably wanting to tack him on to any Peavy deal, much like Willis was dealt with Cabrera.

 

Greene signed a 2Y/11M deal prior to last season. ESPN has his salary at 4.5M for last year. Bonuses may affect it in some way, but ~6M seems like a safe guess. Khalil was awful last year and will be a free agent after this season. You nailed it, he's a worse version of Dontrelle to Peavy's Cabrera.

[CubFanPhilly]

Can we get a few things straight here?

 

1) Shark is NOT getting traded. His NTC is not one of those "give me a NTC so I can get a sweatener when you trade me to one of the teams I wouldn't mind playing for". STOP CREATING TRADE SCENARIOS INCLUDING HIM.

 

2) The Padres will NOT be taking back salary. They aren't taking Lee, they aren't trading AGonz for nothing short of 3x what they could get for Peavy.

 

And of course, Soto isn't getting traded, but I know people aren't really suggesting trade scenarios involving him, just suggesting something of possibly comparable value.

 

Well, I'm glad we got that straight. Any other untouchables besides Soto and those with NTCs? I'd hate to waste bandwidth.

[nilodnayr]

I think you could pull it off if you agreed to take Greene along with Peavy.

 

So something like Pie/Cedeno/Marshall/Adkins.

 

If Towers takes that, Hendry has some nasty pictures of him.

 

That platter wouldn't land Peavy alone, let alone Greene.

 

I'm thinking Pie/Theriot/Marshall/Veal/Adkins might get them to discuss that deal.

 

I'm thinking he's operating under the assumption that Greene has negative trade value. Not outrageous depending on just how much money Moores needs to recoup.

 

Honestly, I think Pie/Castillo/Marshall would be a decent start.

 

 

This is exactly what I'm thinking. Whatever he's owed in 2009, it's probably a hell of a lot more than San Diego wants to pay for him. He's not going to get cheaper. They aren't going to contend, so they'd be probably wanting to tack him on to any Peavy deal, much like Willis was dealt with Cabrera.

 

Greene signed a 2Y/11M deal prior to last season. ESPN has his salary at 4.5M for last year. Bonuses may affect it in some way, but ~6M seems like a safe guess. Khalil was awful last year and will be a free agent after this season. You nailed it, he's a worse version of Dontrelle to Peavy's Cabrera.

 

6.5M for 2009

 

Guess how much he was worth in 2008? $1,905,581.89

 

Yeah, he probably has negative value in the market.

[mordecaibrown]

Soto WILL BE a Cub in 2009 but it does not stop other teams from ask for him in return in any trade discussions. The Cubs farm system is pretty weak so that's a huge reach saying that the Cubs even have five Gerut or Hairston level prospects in the minors. I specifically choose those two to mention because at one time in the distant past they were both well overrated prospects, just like almost anyone in the Cubs system and that's exactly what the Padres will try to avoid.

Gerut and Hairston have not been 'prospects' of any kind in quite some time. Both are full-time MLB players and have been for a few years. Comparing them to the Cubs names being floated - besides probably Cedeno, who has been around a couple years now - is not really an accurate comparison.

I don't know where you get your information, but Gerut hasn't played anything close to full time since 4 years ago, and Hairston has never been a full time player career. He has yet to break 350 ABs in a season. They are both absolutely comparable to Cedeno and Johnson in terms of value. Not that this argument has anything to do with any teams chances of landing Peavey.

I meant full time as in they're always with the big club.

that means little, especially when that big club has the crap on it's roster that SD has.

 

I guess you guys missed the "distant past" part. If you remember both Hairston(DBacks) and Gerut(Indians) were hyped by their original organizations only to fizzle out in the big leagues. So throwing names out like Vitters, Pie, Castillo is completely comparable in terms of value because at one time both Gerut and Hairston were considered elite prospects and had more value then almost any Cubs farmhand mention as a trade possibility.

 

Getting back to the original post, the Cubs would expect young proven major league talent in return for Z. Not the "Scott Hairston" Type prospect(when he was a prospect)or "Joey Gerut" type prospect(when he was a prospect) or even the "Over hyped Cubs prospect of the month " type prospect which posters have mentioned in terms of a potential Peavy trade.

 

Think about this from a Padres fans point of view. Would you as a Cub fan accept four to five mediocre prospects as the value of Carlos Zambrano if a trade had to be made?

[SouthSideRyan]

It doesn't matter what the fans will "accept" If Towers absolutely needs to dump salary, he's going to dump salary. When you have the Braves coming out and saying they're not going to give up anything of value, and the Cards not even giving up things without value, and the Astros not having anything of value, then the Padres may be forced to take whatever they can get.

 

Whether that's the Braves 11th, 12th, and 13th best prospect, some magic beans from Drayton McClane's backyard, or a package from the Cubs is up to the Padres to decide.

[CP_414]

It doesn't matter what the fans will "accept" If Towers absolutely needs to dump salary, he's going to dump salary. When you have the Braves coming out and saying they're not going to give up anything of value, and the Cards not even giving up things without value, and the Astros not having anything of value, then the Padres may be forced to take whatever they can get.

 

Whether that's the Braves 11th, 12th, and 13th best prospect, some magic beans from Drayton McClane's backyard, or a package from the Cubs is up to the Padres to decide.

 

Exactly. The Cubs may have a chance to get a stud pitcher for pennies on a dollar. Hendry needs to make this happen. Hopefully SD feels they "have to" trade Peavy. There are not many options other than the Cubs. Pie, Marshall, Castillo, Ceda might be enough.

[nilodnayr]

It doesn't matter what the fans will "accept" If Towers absolutely needs to dump salary, he's going to dump salary. When you have the Braves coming out and saying they're not going to give up anything of value, and the Cards not even giving up things without value, and the Astros not having anything of value, then the Padres may be forced to take whatever they can get.

 

Whether that's the Braves 11th, 12th, and 13th best prospect, some magic beans from Drayton McClane's backyard, or a package from the Cubs is up to the Padres to decide.

 

Exactly. The Cubs may have a chance to get a stud pitcher for pennies on a dollar. Hendry needs to make this happen. Hopefully SD feels they "have to" trade Peavy. There are not many options other than the Cubs. Pie, Marshall, Castillo, Ceda might be enough.

 

No No No. It doesn't seem like there is a total ultimatum (and if there was then obviously no one would know about it). We aren't going to get Peavy for pennies on the dollar. We are going to have to give up a lot.

[CP_414]

It doesn't matter what the fans will "accept" If Towers absolutely needs to dump salary, he's going to dump salary. When you have the Braves coming out and saying they're not going to give up anything of value, and the Cards not even giving up things without value, and the Astros not having anything of value, then the Padres may be forced to take whatever they can get.

 

Whether that's the Braves 11th, 12th, and 13th best prospect, some magic beans from Drayton McClane's backyard, or a package from the Cubs is up to the Padres to decide.

 

Exactly. The Cubs may have a chance to get a stud pitcher for pennies on a dollar. Hendry needs to make this happen. Hopefully SD feels they "have to" trade Peavy. There are not many options other than the Cubs. Pie, Marshall, Castillo, Ceda might be enough.

 

No No No. It doesn't seem like there is a total ultimatum (and if there was then obviously no one would know about it). We aren't going to get Peavy for pennies on the dollar. We are going to have to give up a lot.

 

How does it not seem like there isn't a total ultimatum? Why would SD even entertain the idea of trading Peavy if they didn't have to slash payroll? He is their best player, and is signed to a team friendly deal for the next 5 years. Of course we don't know for sure, it sure seems to me like they have to move him. If they do have to trade him they only have a couple options, and they might have hard time finding a better deal than one from the Cubs.

[SweetZombieJesus]

It doesn't matter what the fans will "accept" If Towers absolutely needs to dump salary, he's going to dump salary. When you have the Braves coming out and saying they're not going to give up anything of value, and the Cards not even giving up things without value, and the Astros not having anything of value, then the Padres may be forced to take whatever they can get.

 

Whether that's the Braves 11th, 12th, and 13th best prospect, some magic beans from Drayton McClane's backyard, or a package from the Cubs is up to the Padres to decide.

 

*ding*

 

Peavy's true value might be high but his current trade value is probably low as the Braves are not in it supposedly and the AL is completely out.

[Jehrico]

It doesn't matter what the fans will "accept" If Towers absolutely needs to dump salary, he's going to dump salary. When you have the Braves coming out and saying they're not going to give up anything of value, and the Cards not even giving up things without value, and the Astros not having anything of value, then the Padres may be forced to take whatever they can get.

 

Whether that's the Braves 11th, 12th, and 13th best prospect, some magic beans from Drayton McClane's backyard, or a package from the Cubs is up to the Padres to decide.

 

*ding*

 

Peavy's true value might be high but his current trade value is probably low as the Braves are not in it supposedly and the AL is completely out.

What the Padres will get out of him depends largely on how determined the owners are to shed his payroll with their pending divorce, and if the other GMs in the league know it.

[nilodnayr]

It doesn't matter what the fans will "accept" If Towers absolutely needs to dump salary, he's going to dump salary. When you have the Braves coming out and saying they're not going to give up anything of value, and the Cards not even giving up things without value, and the Astros not having anything of value, then the Padres may be forced to take whatever they can get.

 

Whether that's the Braves 11th, 12th, and 13th best prospect, some magic beans from Drayton McClane's backyard, or a package from the Cubs is up to the Padres to decide.

 

Exactly. The Cubs may have a chance to get a stud pitcher for pennies on a dollar. Hendry needs to make this happen. Hopefully SD feels they "have to" trade Peavy. There are not many options other than the Cubs. Pie, Marshall, Castillo, Ceda might be enough.

 

No No No. It doesn't seem like there is a total ultimatum (and if there was then obviously no one would know about it). We aren't going to get Peavy for pennies on the dollar. We are going to have to give up a lot.

 

How does it not seem like there isn't a total ultimatum? Why would SD even entertain the idea of trading Peavy if they didn't have to slash payroll? He is their best player, and is signed to a team friendly deal for the next 5 years. Of course we don't know for sure, it sure seems to me like they have to move him. If they do have to trade him they only have a couple options, and they might have hard time finding a better deal than one from the Cubs.

 

 

15, 16, 17, 22.

 

Those are the reasons why the Padres want to trade Peavy now. Those are Peavy's yearly salaries from 2010-2013. Whats significant about those numbers isn't so much the fact that they will be a big bump in pay by the team after 2009. Whats significant is that they will be fairly close to Peavy's ACTUAL value. Once Peavy reaches the part of his contract that he signed the extention last winter he isn't going to be such a great deal anymore. He'll be a $20M pitcher making $17.5M. Now really is the right time where hes reached the inflection of his best production AND best value. The demand from the market SHOULD be at its highest, however because there are seemingly few trading partners it is not. If that indeed is the case then I'm guessing we'll see them hold onto Peavy and trade him at the deadline.

 

Additionally, you have to look at the Padres as a whole. They have many holes and a poor farm system (in addition to the payroll issues). One Jake Peavy isn't going to propel this team into the playoffs. They need multiple young, good, cheap players. It would be foolish for a team to not entertain offers on their best player if it will help them have a better team overall. DePodesta has said that many times on his blog.

 

Regardless as to whether or not payroll slashing is going on in SD, now is the right time to trade Peavy.

[mul21]

How does it not seem like there isn't a total ultimatum? Why would SD even entertain the idea of trading Peavy if they didn't have to slash payroll? He is their best player, and is signed to a team friendly deal for the next 5 years. Of course we don't know for sure, it sure seems to me like they have to move him. If they do have to trade him they only have a couple options, and they might have hard time finding a better deal than one from the Cubs.

 

I think this has to be pretty close to accurate. While they may not be under a "get rid of him at all costs" type order, it seems pretty clear they are looking to shed payroll and get back what they can. Given what appears to be a limited number of options in terms of teams that are willing to trade for him and where he's willing to go, you may end up getting a bargain if you trade for him.

 

I also think that taking Greene lessens what you have to give up because of his poor production last year vs. his current cost. There's no way you're going to have to give up more in the deal to get Greene if you take on his entire salary.

[Jehrico]

 

How does it not seem like there isn't a total ultimatum? Why would SD even entertain the idea of trading Peavy if they didn't have to slash payroll? He is their best player, and is signed to a team friendly deal for the next 5 years. Of course we don't know for sure, it sure seems to me like they have to move him. If they do have to trade him they only have a couple options, and they might have hard time finding a better deal than one from the Cubs.

 

 

15, 16, 17, 22.

 

Those are the reasons why the Padres want to trade Peavy now. Those are Peavy's yearly salaries from 2010-2013. Whats significant about those numbers isn't so much the fact that they will be a big bump in pay by the team after 2009. Whats significant is that they will be fairly close to Peavy's ACTUAL value. Once Peavy reaches the part of his contract that he signed the extention last winter he isn't going to be such a great deal anymore. He'll be a $20M pitcher making $17.5M. Now really is the right time where hes reached the inflection of his best production AND best value. The demand from the market SHOULD be at its highest, however because there are seemingly few trading partners it is not. If that indeed is the case then I'm guessing we'll see them hold onto Peavy and trade him at the deadline.

 

Additionally, you have to look at the Padres as a whole. They have many holes and a poor farm system (in addition to the payroll issues). One Jake Peavy isn't going to propel this team into the playoffs. They need multiple young, good, cheap players. It would be foolish for a team to not entertain offers on their best player if it will help them have a better team overall. DePodesta has said that many times on his blog.

 

Regardless as to whether or not payroll slashing is going on in SD, now is the right time to trade Peavy.

I think you're hitting it on the nose. Divorces can get acrimonious and messy. One of two things will happen...the Padres will do the smart thing and keep him, as they're unlikely to get fair value with the limited market they have to work with, or, if they're desperate enough because of the divorce, they'll take what the can to save the money. If we get them, it's going to be because their owners made the bad choice out of necessity because of the divorce, not because we overwhelmed them with our prospects. That said, this thread is going to be the BRTII thread, because no one is going to offer the Padres fair value right now. They're not going to lose anything by waiting as long as possible, and they won't owe him any more money until the first paycheck for next season is due. This is going to drag on until at least right before spring training, if not later. It's anyone's guess as to whether this divorce will have any impact on them making a bad decision. It's highly unlikely, IMO, but not impossible.

[nilodnayr]

The Padres 2008 Payroll was $73.7M. Buster Olney reports the Padres want to have a 2009 payroll around $50M. Looking at the Padres currently, with them picking up Giles option and arbi raises they have roughly $49M committed. THAT INCLUDES PEAVY. It does not include retaining Hoffman. If they really want Hoffman they'll have to either decline Giles' option or trade him or trade Greene and get nothing in return.

 

Regardless, the Padres DO have room in their budget for Peavy for 2009. They don't HAVE to trade him. Like I said above, the timing of the trade is due to his maximum production/cost, not the divorce.

[SouthSideRyan]

49M committed with how many players on the roster? And how long does Moores see having to have a low payroll? Does Towers want to tie up 2/5 of the payroll into one player in a few years?

[Blue W]

While this might be a Brian Roberts part II thread in length, I kind of doubt it. The Cubs are going to have to make a decision on Dempster pretty quickly. They aren't going to re-sign Dempster AND treade for Peavy. If there is a deal to be made with San Diego, they're going to have to give the Cubs some assurances soon. We can't be dickering for five months over Peavy only to lose out on him AND Dempster.

[mordecaibrown]

The Padres 2008 Payroll was $73.7M. Buster Olney reports the Padres want to have a 2009 payroll around $50M. Looking at the Padres currently, with them picking up Giles option and arbi raises they have roughly $49M committed. THAT INCLUDES PEAVY. It does not include retaining Hoffman. If they really want Hoffman they'll have to either decline Giles' option or trade him or trade Greene and get nothing in return.

 

Regardless, the Padres DO have room in their budget for Peavy for 2009. They don't HAVE to trade him. Like I said above, the timing of the trade is due to his maximum production/cost, not the divorce.

 

Great post!

 

The Padres want the max they can get for Peavy, they really do not have to trade him so why would they settle for the mediocre.

 

Headley, Hundley and Antonelli would not be value for Carlos Zambrano, so why on earth would the Padres accept that type of deal for Peavy.

Edited October 28, 2008 by mordecaibrown

[nilodnayr]

49M committed with how many players on the roster? And how long does Moores see having to have a low payroll? Does Towers want to tie up 2/5 of the payroll into one player in a few years?

 

That $49M is with a 25 man roster. However, they obviously have to go cheap at some positions. The only position they lose a starter at is 2B. They have internal options such as Antonelli (although he had a disasterous 2008) or Edgar Gonzalez and Scott Hairston.

 

Worse off though is their rotation after Peavy and Young. They have to find 3 guys out of Baek, Hensley, Banks, LeBlanc, Greer, Germano, and God knows who else. They can bargain hunt like they always do though for Estes and Ledezma -esque guys and will surely be looking at the rehab guys again like Prior and Clement, so its not an insurmountable task to build the back end of their rotation, especially since they know they aren't going to compete.

 

Their bullpen should be OK (not good or even average, but probably good enough), even without Hoffman.