Rank the NL for 2008

[UMFan83]

I started talking about this in another thread, but I would be interested to see how people think the NL is shaping up. I think right now its all over the place. With the Mets acquiring Santana, I would be most would pick the Mets at number 1, but from there you can go a number of ways. Here is what I projected:

 

1. Mets

2. Diamondbacks

3. Dodgers

4. Rockies

5. Phillies

6. Padres

7. Brewers (just being a pessimist)

8. Cubs

9. Braves

10. Reds

----------------------------------Realistic Contender Line----------------------------------

11. Astros

12. Cardinals

13. Nationals

14. Giants

15. Pirates

16. Marlins

[David]

Guess I'll follow suit and repost what I posted in the other thread for the sake of discussion.

 

 

The D'Backs sweeping us in the playoffs isn't changing my mind that their record last year was a fluke. They gave up more runs than they scored. It's going to catch up to them. And yes, I understand that they got great production out of their bullpen last year, which would help explain their situation with the pythag, somewhat. That's still something else that's hard to repeat or predict. Bullpen performance seems to be inherently pretty flukish.

 

 

Haren is a really nice addition, though. As for Johnson, I don't really think he has much in the tank at age 44. He made what, 9 or 10 starts last year?

 

I'm not saying they aren't a decent team, but I can't put them as top 2 in the NL. I'm not even sure that I'd put them ahead of the Cubs.

[Rob]

Are we assuming the Dodgers stay healthy or get injured? Cause they're the one team in either league that can actually get better as they get injured...

[David]

My rankings...wow, right now, I'm trying to do this, and I feel like a supreme homer because I can't definitively put any teams ahead of the Cubs aside from the Mets. MAYBE the Dodgers, I guess. Anyway, it's a jumbled mess of teams, but I'll give it a shot. I can understand why media guys can't win with the fans when they try to put this stuff together.

 

 

1. Mets

2. Cubs

3. Dodgers

4. Brewers

5. Diamondbacks

6. Phillies

7. Rockies

8. Padres

9. Braves

----------------------------------Realistic Contender Line----------------------------------

10. Reds

11. Nationals

12. Astros

13. Cardinals

14. Marlins

15. Giants

16. Pirates

[pitchcs]

Based off memory on what teams have done:

 

1. Mets

2. Dodgers

3. Cubs

4. Padres

5. Rockies

6. Brewers

7. D'Backs

8. Phillies

9. Braves

10. Reds

 

Contender Line

 

11. Giants

12. Astros

13. Cardinals

14. Nationals

15. Pirates

16. Marlins

[DenverCubs]

1. Mets

2. (tie) Brewers, Cubs, D'Backs, Dodgers, Padres, Phillies, Rockies

9. Braves

 

Contender Line

 

10. Reds

11. Cardinals

12. Giants

13. Astros

14. Nationals

15. Pirates

16. Marlins

[Post Count Padder]

1. Mets

2. Dodgers

3. Cubs

4. Phillies

5. D'backs

6. Padres

7. Brewers

8. Rockies

9. Braves

10.Reds

---------------------------------

11. Nats

12. Astros

13. Marlins

14. Cards

15. Giants

16. Pirates

[inari]

My list is different from everybody else's, it seems...

 

1. Mets

2. Phillies

3. Padres

4. Diamondbacks

5. Rockies

6. Cubs

7. Dodgers

8. Brewers

9. Braves

-------------

10. Astros

11. Reds

12. Nationals

13. Marlins

14. Giants

15. Cardinals

16. Pirates

[Mephistopheles]

Wins:

 

1. New York Mets (95-100)

2. Atlanta Braves (90-95)

3. Philadelphia Phillies (90-95)

4. Los Angeles Dodgers (90-95)

5. Chicago Cubs (87-82)

---------------------REAL CONTENDER LINE------------

6. Arizona Diamondbacks (85-90)

7. San Diego Padres (85-90)

---------------------REAL PRETENDER LINE------------

8. Colorado Rockies (80-85)

9. Milwaukee Brewers (80-85)

10. Cincinnati Reds (75-80)

11. St. Louis Cardinals (75-80)

12. Pittsburgh Pirates (70-75)

13. Washington Nationals (65-70)

14. Florida Marlins (65-70)

15. Houston Astros (65-70)

16. San Francisco Giants (70-75)

[Mephistopheles]

So yeah the only question for me is who wins the Wild Card: Philly or Atlanta. I think the rest is etched in stone.

[JesseG.]

1. Mets

2. Rockies

3. Brewers

4. Dodgers

5. Dimondbacks

6. Phillies

7. Cubs

8. Braves

9. Padres

10. Reds

11. Astros

12. Cards

-------------------------------------

13. Pirates

14. Giants

15. Nats

16. Malrins

[rawaction]

1. Mets

2. Phillies

3. Cubs

4. Dodgers

5. Braves

6. Diamondbacks

7. Rockies

8. Reds

9. Brewers

 

-----------------------------Contender line--------------------------------------

 

10 Padres

11 Nationals

12 Cardinals

13 Astros

14 Pirates

15 Giants

16 Marlins

[VanceJergins]

I started talking about this in another thread, but I would be interested to see how people think the NL is shaping up. I think right now its all over the place. With the Mets acquiring Santana, I would be most would pick the Mets at number 1, but from there you can go a number of ways. Here is what I projected:

 

1. Mets

2. Diamondbacks

3. Dodgers

4. Rockies

5. Phillies

6. Padres

7. Brewers (just being a pessimist)

8. Cubs

9. Braves

10. Reds

----------------------------------Realistic Contender Line----------------------------------

11. Astros

12. Cardinals

13. Nationals

14. Giants

15. Pirates

16. Marlins

 

I think I remember last year you saying the Cubs would get 4th in the division, so things are looking up.

[Ender]

1. Mets - Seems pretty obvious

2. Dodgers - This is a really good team if they let the younger guys play

3. Phillies - A lot depends on Lidge but this is still a good team.

4. Braves - Good lineup, ok pitching, strong bullpen.

5. Brewers - The cameron signing is biggest upgrade in the NL Central this season, the defensive rearrangement is worth 4-5 wins imo.

6. Rockies - Took a hot streak to sneak into the playoffs, I don't see a repeat.

7. Cubs - Soto won't be as good as people think, Fukudome will take some time to adjust, the rotation will regress.

8. Diamondbacks - This was a sub .500 team last year and even with the Haren upgrade they'll have problems competing in that division this year.

9. Padres - This team is on a downward trend.

10. Reds - I love the Reds young guys, they are the one team that could mature early and be 4-5 spots above where I pick them.

11. Astros - this is a really poorly built team with no long term future, this is a huge drop from #10 with the Reds having a shot at .500+ and the Astros having a shot at 90+ losses.

12. Marlins - meh

13. Giants - worst franchise in baseball when you take $$ into account and yes I think it is worse than Baltimore which is shocking.

14. Cardinals - They need to rebuild big time.

15. Nationals - No pitching

16. Pirates - small market + poorly run = bad results

[inari]

Defensive improvement will never ever result in 4-5 wins.

[VanceJergins]

7. Cubs - Soto won't be as good as people think, Fukudome will take some time to adjust, the rotation will regress.

 

Nobody has been realistically projecting huge things for Soto. He should definitely be an improvement over last year. And how do you figure the rotation will regress? Zambrano had his worst full season as a pro, it was Hill's first full season, and with all the options for 4-5, that shouldn't be any worse than last year. Lilly may regress but it won't be by a whole lot.

[SouthSideRyan]

Defensive improvement will never ever result in 4-5 wins.

 

Ryan Braun does crazy things to the word never.

 

Of course 4-5 wins only brings the Brewers to even with the Cubs pythag last year.

[Ender]

Defensive improvement will never ever result in 4-5 wins.

 

You don't undertand how much defense means if this was a serious post.

 

Nobody has been realistically projecting huge things for Soto

 

Most sources have him listed as an .800+ OPS C which makes him top 5 or so in the NL even if his defense doesnt' show up.

 

As for the pitching, Zambrano is in a clear downward spiral over the past 4 years and I don't think last year was fluke. Lilly had a career year that I don't see repeating. Marquis and the #5's are all worse than they pitched last year. The real difference is i don't believe in the Cubs defense from last year, I don't think they are a top 5 defensive team.

[CubColtPacer]

Defensive improvement will never ever result in 4-5 wins.

 

You don't undertand how much defense means if this was a serious post.

 

Nobody has been realistically projecting huge things for Soto

 

Most sources have him listed as an .800+ OPS C which makes him top 5 or so in the NL even if his defense doesnt' show up.

 

As for the pitching, Zambrano is in a clear downward spiral over the past 4 years and I don't think last year was fluke. Lilly had a career year that I don't see repeating. Marquis and the #5's are all worse than they pitched last year. The real difference is i don't believe in the Cubs defense from last year, I don't think they are a top 5 defensive team.

 

I would tend to agree that if the Cubs brought back the same defensive squad from last year, they likely weren't a top 5 defensive team. In many ways, that's where the current Cubs starters have upgraded the most though. Jones had a fluke good defensive season in CF last year, but he's being replaced by a guy who is legitimately that good. RF had horrible defense from Murton/Floyd/Ward, and Fukudome is supposed to bring very good RF defense. The catcher position had Barrett and Kendall back there for most of the year providing awful defense behind the plate, and now they have Soto, and the one thing we really know for sure about him is that he is a good defensive catcher. 7 of the 8 Cubs regulars are average or better defensively for their spot, and 6 of the 8 could be considered above average for their spot. I'd call that a top defense.

 

As for the pitching, here's how I see it:

 

Z: wildcard. could go back up, could stay the same, could continue to slide down the hill

Lilly: likely to go down a little bit

Hill: could stay the same, could go up a little bit

Marquis: could stay the same, could go down a little bit, could go down a lot

5 spot (5.10 ERA last year): depends on how long Lieber can go. Probably an improvement, maybe around the same.

 

So I'd expect a slight regression from the starting staff. The bullpen is shaping up to be possibly better than it was last year though. Overall the pitching staff shouldn't be that much worse than they were last year if at all.

[JesseG.]

Defensive improvement will never ever result in 4-5 wins.

 

With how bad Ryan Braun played Defense last year... Its possible.. Defense is REALLY important.

[XZero771679666304]

Defensive improvement will never ever result in 4-5 wins.

 

You don't undertand how much defense means if this was a serious post.

 

Nobody has been realistically projecting huge things for Soto

 

Most sources have him listed as an .800+ OPS C which makes him top 5 or so in the NL even if his defense doesnt' show up.

 

As for the pitching, Zambrano is in a clear downward spiral over the past 4 years and I don't think last year was fluke. Lilly had a career year that I don't see repeating. Marquis and the #5's are all worse than they pitched last year. The real difference is i don't believe in the Cubs defense from last year, I don't think they are a top 5 defensive team.

 

I agree with most of what you say, but I think you're dead wrong about the Cubs' defense. And this won't be the Cubs defense from last year, it'll be better.

 

Before you even say Aramis' name, he's been in an upward trend defensively each of the past 4 years, so it's safe to say he should be at least as good in 2008 as in 2007.

 

Lee had a down year in 2007, and I don't believe for a second he just morphed from an elite into an average 1B in one year.

 

 

As for the rest of the defense:

 

Pie >>> Jones

Fukudome >> Floyd/Murton/DeRo

Soto >>>>>>>> Kendall/Barrett/Hill

 

 

Soriano should be about the same (his numbers in LF last year were pretty close to his numbers in LF in 2006), and DeRosa's 2007 defense was right in line with his career numbers at 2B. Theriot's defense will be mediocre, but it was last year.

 

I think it's a real stretch to say the Cubs defense will be worse in 2008, when it really should be better. At the very least, it'll be as good, with better control of the running game, and a lot more OF assists.

 

As for the Brewers defense, even with Cameron, it is only better than average at one position. It's still going to be a huge weakness.

 

4-5 wins better? Maybe. But the loss of Cordero may well negate that by itself.

 

There are a lot of variables floating around here for both teams. I find it just as likely that Braun, Hart and especially Hardy will regress a bit as it is that the Cubs' rotation will regress as a whole. Lilly did have a career year, but he also moved from the most brutal division in baseball to one of the softest. As for Z, I think is issues are all in his head, so who the hell knows.

[ctcf]

I think having the D'Backs anywhere in the top 5 is vastly overrating that team.

[Ender]

There are a lot of variables floating around here for both teams

 

I certainly agree and any team from the #2 spot all the way down until the Giants/Marlins level teams could easily make the playoffs. I think the Mets are the clear top team and after that we have a big mix of teams that could be anywhere from 80-88 wins depending on which players step up and which get hurt etc.

[illiniguy]

I think we have a lot more room for a better year than last year.

 

Soriano missed a month last year.

For what a month, Ramirez didn't hit any homers? He also missed a couple weeks.

Lee went a half season forgetting how to drive the ball.

Zambrano had his worst year as a pro.

Fukudome will have to be an upgrade over Floyd.

Soto, even if he tanks, will be better than what we had at that spot last year.

Rich Hill should only get better.

 

As for the Brewers.

I doubt Fielder can get much better.

If Braun improves his offense they should just rename the MVP trophy.

Corey Hart and JJ Hardy had great years, I want to see them do that again.

Bill Hall will be better.

Rickie Weeks will be better.

Just how good is Gallardo?

 

I still like our chances to take the division.

[pitchcs]

I'm surprised how high most are on the Phillies.