ESPN1000 Mark Teahen for Matt Murton?

[Bruce Miles]

Actually, "Limelight" is one of my favorite songs from my favorite band, Rush. But enough about me.

 

Well, considering you also showed your age with this last response, I suppose that is enough about you. Of course, I'm probably older and have likely been to more Rush shows than you. :D

 

I attended three Rush shows this past summer and have been to 13 since 1976, when I was 19.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Bruce,

 

Do you believe in Big Foot?

 

Also, my wife says I spend too much time talking about baseball and Coors Light, what do you think?

 

 

In all seriousness, thanks for answering our questions. It's nice to have some reality and sanity brought in among all the rumors.

[JeffH]

It's nice to have some reality and sanity brought in among all the rumors.

 

Boooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!!!!!

[UMFan83]

Bruce,

 

Do you believe in Big Foot?

 

Also, my wife says I spend too much time talking about baseball and Coors Light, what do you think?

 

 

In all seriousness, thanks for answering our questions. It's nice to have some reality and sanity brought in among all the rumors.

 

Personally I prefer wild rampant speculation from people's brother's girlfriend's uncle's friends who work as a janitor in the ballpark.

[BigbadB]

A - I don't think Murton's numbers are inflated because he played sporadically. I think it's rare to have a player who plays better when they start almost randomly (it certainly didn't seem like a strict platoon, and the demotion to AAA didn't help).

 

B - take away all of his PH plate appearances and I think his numbers would actually go up. He had a couple HRs, but his game log shows a ton of 0/1s. If there's one thing we learned in '07, it's that Murton isn't a PH.

 

I'm really not in favor of trading Murton if they don't have to. He makes for an awesome #4 outfielder. But.....

 

Murton vs. RHP in 2007: .257 .331 .396

Teahen vs RHP in 2007: .297 .363 .437

 

And this was in an off year for Teahen. There are more RHP in the league than LHP. Between the two of them, they would be one heck of a complete LFer.

 

And I say LFer because I'm convinced the best move the Cubs could make this offseason that doesn't involve transactions would be to move Soriano to RF where he belongs. Most of the guys the Cubs have been sending out to RF last year and looking at this offseason are basically LFers. Just move Soriano for the last time and be done with it. Seeing Daryle Ward, Cliff Floyd, Jacque Jones (weak arm) and Matt Murton trying to play RF has been amusing, but there comes a point where it's not funny anymore.

[St.Paul Cub]

 

I'm really not in favor of trading Murton if they don't have to. He makes for an awesome #4 outfielder. But.....

 

Murton vs. RHP in 2007: .257 .331 .396

Teahen vs RHP in 2007: .297 .363 .437

 

And this was in an off year for Teahen. There are more RHP in the league than LHP. Between the two of them, they would be one heck of a complete LFer.

 

And I say LFer because I'm convinced the best move the Cubs could make this offseason that doesn't involve transactions would be to move Soriano to RF where he belongs. Most of the guys the Cubs have been sending out to RF last year and looking at this offseason are basically LFers. Just move Soriano for the last time and be done with it. Seeing Daryle Ward, Cliff Floyd, Jacque Jones (weak arm) and Matt Murton trying to play RF has been amusing, but there comes a point where it's not funny anymore.

 

I totally agree.

 

Thanks for stopping in and giving us the inside info Bruce.

[CubColtPacer]

Check out the career stats:

 

Teahan averages 14 HRs, 78 RBI, .274, .340, .429, .769

Murton averages 16 HRs, 55 RBI, .296, .365, .455, .820

Perhaps one of you stat geeks out there can look at those numbers and explain how Teahan has "more power", "a higher ceiling", etc. When I look at the numbers it looks like Murton is significantly better in most offensive areas. To me the only advantages Teahan has are his defense and the fact he's left-handed.

 

To be a bit fair, Teahen played against tougher pitching in the AL, especially considering how utterly putrid the pitching was in the NL Central was this year. Also, it was kind of an outlier year for Comerica this year, but since it's inception it's always been one of the ten toughest parks for hitters.

 

Comerica is Detroit. I don't like the comparison because Murton's numbers are probably a bit inflated due to situational hitting (platoon) rather than playing everyday. They are essentially the same type of hitter, with Teahen probably possessing more power.

 

A - I don't think Murton's numbers are inflated because he played sporadically. I think it's rare to have a player who plays better when they start almost randomly (it certainly didn't seem like a strict platoon, and the demotion to AAA didn't help).

 

B - take away all of his PH plate appearances and I think his numbers would actually go up. He had a couple HRs, but his game log shows a ton of 0/1s. If there's one thing we learned in '07, it's that Murton isn't a PH.

 

He's probably saying that Murton's stats are inflated because 38.7% of his at-bats were against left-handers, which is high (to compare, Soriano had 21.8% of his at-bats against left-handers). Add to that his splits in 2007:

 

vs left: .319/.386/.505

vs right: .257/.331/.396

 

If Murton had an equal distribution of at bats between right handers and left-handers at his current splits, he'd have an overall OPS that was 28 points lower.

 

His PH numbers were down, you're right. He had a .172/.294/.414 line as a pinch hitter. If you take the PH numbers out of his overall numbers, his OPS goes up 17 points.

[BigbadB]

Actually, "Limelight" is one of my favorite songs from my favorite band, Rush. But enough about me.

 

Well, considering you also showed your age with this last response, I suppose that is enough about you. Of course, I'm probably older and have likely been to more Rush shows than you. :D

 

I attended three Rush shows this past summer and have been to 13 since 1976, when I was 19.

 

You win, on both fronts. :D

[ctcf]

Darn I wanted to find out whats going on with Prior. Is he still around?

[Bruce Miles]

Darn I wanted to find out whats going on with Prior. Is he still around?

 

 

They should have it wrapped up one way or another by Dec. 12. They're getting a good amount of interest from other teams. They've got to see if they can come to some reasonable deal. If Prior were a four-plus guy rather than a five-plus guy, this would be less complex. The fact that he can leave after 2008 changes things from both sides' perspectives.

[craig]

Bruce, a couple Q's if you're still around or feel like answering.

1. With Ohman gone, do you sense they want to get a LH reliever outside? Big priority? Or do you think they are A-OK to go with status quo? Marshall maybe serving as 2nd lefty/long-reliever role, Cotts and Pigs and presumably some minor-league contract pickups for competition?

 

2. Ohman seemed to be a guy they moved because they wanted to. Do you sense that there are any other guys like that, time to turn the page guys? Is Cedeno like that, a guy whose talents or personality or whatever they just don't think is a fit, or do you sense that they're comfortable with him and OK with him as a bench guy?

 

3. From your view, is their anything they are targetting now other than contingency planning and perhaps what to do about Prior? Seems that if they were to get Fukudome, they might not really need to do anything else. They'd have their starters, they'd have 5 bench players (Ward, Blanco, Cedeno, Murton, and Pagan), other than lefty relief maybe a pretty sit-tight pitching staff. My hypothesis is that basically most of the current discussions are shot-in-the-dark explorations ("what would it take to get Roberts?" "OK, that's more than we're willing to give now, but we'll keep that in mind, thanks") and contingency stuff: If we don't get Fukudome, what would it cost for Swisher or you-name-it-alternatives? If we need to trade some of Murton/Cedeno/Pie/Wuertz/Marshall/Dempster/Marquis to fill RF if Fukudome fails, what contingencies are there to replace Murton or Cedeno or Wuertz or Pie etc.? Mostly just contingency planning. Agree or disagree?

[ctcf]

Darn I wanted to find out whats going on with Prior. Is he still around?

 

 

They should have it wrapped up one way or another by Dec. 12. They're getting a good amount of interest from other teams. They've got to see if they can come to some reasonable deal. If Prior were a four-plus guy rather than a five-plus guy, this would be less complex. The fact that he can leave after 2008 changes things from both sides' perspectives.

 

Any idea what are the odds of him staying?

 

Oh and muchos gracias senor!

[Bruce Miles]

Bruce, a couple Q's if you're still around or feel like answering.

1. With Ohman gone, do you sense they want to get a LH reliever outside? Big priority? Or do you think they are A-OK to go with status quo? Marshall maybe serving as 2nd lefty/long-reliever role, Cotts and Pigs and presumably some minor-league contract pickups for competition?

 

2. Ohman seemed to be a guy they moved because they wanted to. Do you sense that there are any other guys like that, time to turn the page guys? Is Cedeno like that, a guy whose talents or personality or whatever they just don't think is a fit, or do you sense that they're comfortable with him and OK with him as a bench guy?

 

3. From your view, is their anything they are targetting now other than contingency planning and perhaps what to do about Prior? Seems that if they were to get Fukudome, they might not really need to do anything else. They'd have their starters, they'd have 5 bench players (Ward, Blanco, Cedeno, Murton, and Pagan), other than lefty relief maybe a pretty sit-tight pitching staff. My hypothesis is that basically most of the current discussions are shot-in-the-dark explorations ("what would it take to get Roberts?" "OK, that's more than we're willing to give now, but we'll keep that in mind, thanks") and contingency stuff: If we don't get Fukudome, what would it cost for Swisher or you-name-it-alternatives? If we need to trade some of Murton/Cedeno/Pie/Wuertz/Marshall/Dempster/Marquis to fill RF if Fukudome fails, what contingencies are there to replace Murton or Cedeno or Wuertz or Pie etc.? Mostly just contingency planning. Agree or disagree?

 

They will not actively pursue a LH reliever from outside. No free agent, but if one is part of a trade, they'll listen. They're not looking to dump Cedeno. They still see value and the possibility he can beat out Theriot. Once RF gets done, they're about settled. Swisher seems way, way out of the question. The A's will want half the universe for him considering he's a cornerstone of the team. You're right in thinking most of the talks are exploratory. Most of these explorations, such as will happen with Roberts, end up nowhere. But teams have to ask.

[Bruce Miles]

Darn I wanted to find out whats going on with Prior. Is he still around?

 

 

They should have it wrapped up one way or another by Dec. 12. They're getting a good amount of interest from other teams. They've got to see if they can come to some reasonable deal. If Prior were a four-plus guy rather than a five-plus guy, this would be less complex. The fact that he can leave after 2008 changes things from both sides' perspectives.

 

Any idea what are the odds of him staying?

 

Oh and muchos gracias senor!

 

 

Odds, I'd say, are 40-60 of him staying. They'd like to get something in return if he won't agree to a year plus a team option deal.

[abuck1220]

i get the feeling that prior hates the cubs and i'm pretty sure the cubs feel the same way.

 

what a messy, sad ending to what could have been glorious. please trade him to the AL.

[craig]

Odds, I'd say, are 40-60 of him staying. They'd like to get something in return if he won't agree to a year plus a team option deal.

 

We've heard that a number of teams are interested and Prior's name has come up with a number of teams.

 

Do you have any sense for how much they could get for him? For example, if he could net the caliber of B+ prospect they got for Ohman/Infante, would that be surprisingly good return? Or would you expect more? There was a San Diego rumor, for example, with three B prospect names included. I have no idea what Prior's market is worth at this point. Would the Cubs be lucky to get one B or B+ prospect? Or is there enough interest that they might harvest a couple of pretty interesting prospects? Any feeling? Or is the interest really misleading, and nobody's really offering any more than one Pignatiello or Jake Fox type C prospect?

 

Seems to me they'd probably like to resolve things either way, preferably before the 12th. But if the rumored interest is at all accurate, it would seem that there must be teams who think he's worth the tender price even if the Cubs don't. So I don't see why the 12th needs to really be a deadline. Tender him, and you can still trade him later even if you still can never reach a mutually satisfactory contract.

[Bruce Miles]

Odds, I'd say, are 40-60 of him staying. They'd like to get something in return if he won't agree to a year plus a team option deal.

 

We've heard that a number of teams are interested and Prior's name has come up with a number of teams.

 

Do you have any sense for how much they could get for him? For example, if he could net the caliber of B+ prospect they got for Ohman/Infante, would that be surprisingly good return? Or would you expect more? There was a San Diego rumor, for example, with three B prospect names included. I have no idea what Prior's market is worth at this point. Would the Cubs be lucky to get one B or B+ prospect? Or is there enough interest that they might harvest a couple of pretty interesting prospects? Any feeling? Or is the interest really misleading, and nobody's really offering any more than one Pignatiello or Jake Fox type C prospect?

 

Seems to me they'd probably like to resolve things either way, preferably before the 12th. But if the rumored interest is at all accurate, it would seem that there must be teams who think he's worth the tender price even if the Cubs don't. So I don't see why the 12th needs to really be a deadline. Tender him, and you can still trade him later even if you still can never reach a mutually satisfactory contract.

 

Tender him, but remember, you can't cut him more than 20 percent. The Cubs would love to non-tender him and sign him back the next day at a lesser deal. That's what they did with Michael Barrett in December 2003. They traded for him, non-tendered him and then re-signed him. Prior made $3.575 million this year. If he's tendered, whoever has him runs the risk of paying him a ton of dough for him to rehab into the seaon and then risk losing him. Any team will want some give from Prior.

[Guest]

They're not looking to dump Cedeno. They still see value and the possibility he can beat out Theriot.

 

Yay.

[Mephistopheles]

I'll believe it when it happens. Theriot will have to hit like .240/.300/.300 for a prolonged spell before Cedeno is given a chance, I think.

[Keener98]

I'll believe it when it happens. Theriot will have to hit like .240/.300/.300 for a prolonged spell before Cedeno is given a chance, I think.

 

Sadly I agree.

[David]

I'll believe it when it happens. Theriot will have to hit like .240/.300/.300 for a prolonged spell before Cedeno is given a chance, I think.

 

 

That's not exactly inconceivable, though.

[GoCubsGo1679625768]

I dunno, I'm gonna give Lou the benefit of the doubt, if(when) Cedeno outproduces Theriot in ST, I think he will get the job.

[Lefty]

Tender him, but remember, you can't cut him more than 20 percent. The Cubs would love to non-tender him and sign him back the next day at a lesser deal. That's what they did with Michael Barrett in December 2003. They traded for him, non-tendered him and then re-signed him. Prior made $3.575 million this year. If he's tendered, whoever has him runs the risk of paying him a ton of dough for him to rehab into the seaon and then risk losing him. Any team will want some give from Prior.

 

I thought the new CBA made it a 40% cut.

[Guancous]

teahen is a moneyball-draft guy.

 

Michael Lewis wrote a 2005 New York Times article about Mark Teahan. It's 9 pages of his psychology. It's a fascinating read:

 

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/04/24/magazine/24BASEBALL.html

[SouthSideRyan]

Why must every one of Bruce's appearances turn into a press conference? Can we treat him like normal?

 

Bruce,

 

What is your favorite ice cream flavor and TV show?

 

I like strawberry cheesecake & cinnamon, and I'm also really into Lost.

 

Bruce loves the limelight. Or is it that he loves the night life and that he likes to boogie? I keep forgetting.

 

Actually, "Limelight" is one of my favorite songs from my favorite band, Rush. But enough about me.

 

You had me until this.