MacPhail: Deal is dead (p. 297), stop posting, go outside

[Tracer Bullet]

Great lets talk about Hendry's trade history on this thread and make it even longer.

Aramis Ramirez and Kenny Lofton for Jose Hernandez, Bobby Hill, and Matt Bruback

 

Todd Hundley and Chad Hermanson for Eric Karros and Mark Grudzielanek

 

That is all.

 

Couldn't agree more. Hendry's steals have worked out far better long term for him than his busts have bit him in the long run.

 

I couldn't disagree more. Since Hendry became GM:

 

The Tribune has upped Cubs payroll from 70m to 110m+

The farm system has gone from one of the top farm systems to the bottom and back to the middle of the pack

 

Cubs record since 2003 is 407-403 while playing in arguably the worst division in baseball during that span.

 

My expectations are a bit higher than yours, I guess.

 

It's been said before, but Hendry is an average at best GM. You can certainly have a worse GM. Also, the clubs record since 2003 doesn't really rest solely on Hendry. What if Prior and Wood are healthy those years? What if DLee doesn't break his wrist? There's a bunch of factors that go into the teams record and it's unfair to cast all the blame on Hendry's trades.

 

He's average. Nothing more and nothing less.

 

He may be average for GMs in the league right now, but he's still bad at his job.

 

Though I do agree that team record during tenure is a pretty shoddy way of judging a GM. It's a factor, but there are so many others that are ignored (case in point - look at what DD has done in Detroit and the team record during his tenure, esp before last season). If you're looking at team record, finding a trend, if any, makes more sense than just the record overall. And if the trend can be explained by things outside his control, that should be considered (though I'm not sure Hendry escapes blame for what happened to Prior & Wood - he hired Dusty and didn't do much to stop what Dusty did to those guys in '03 - though people disagree on whether that resulted in injury or not).

[17 Seconds]

 

He not only improves the defense (although DeRosa did O.K.) but that would give the Cubs one heck of a line-up from 1 through 5 plus Soto, etc..

 

Derosa actually ha a higher career RF at second.

 

 

I realize discussing stats can become an endless debate but I show secondbase career numbers as follows:

 

Roberts...FP=.987...Rfg=4.57...innings at position=6256

DeRosa...FP=.984...Rfg=4.09...innings at position=1564.7

 

 

Where did you get those numers from? ESPN.com has different ones. It has Deorsa as a 4.87 and Roberts as a 4.78.

 

Anyways, my point was to show that Roberts isn't really an upgrade defensively.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Range Factor is an awful defensive metric. Roberts isn't super defensively, but he's better than DeRosa.

[17 Seconds]

Range Factor is an awful defensive metric. Roberts isn't super defensively, but he's better than DeRosa.

 

I can't find other defensive metrics that are sorted by position. Derosa's overall numbers are skewed since he plays so many positions.

[Post Count Padder]

Sergio Mitre, Ricky Nolasco, and Renyel Pinto for Juan Pierre

 

That is all.

[Mizzou]

Sergio Mitre, Ricky Nolasco, and Renyel Pinto for Juan Pierre

 

That is all.

And what have those three done since the trade though? Pinto has been somewhat decent, the other two, not so much.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Sergio Mitre, Ricky Nolasco, and Renyel Pinto for Juan Pierre

 

That is all.

And what have those three done since the trade though? Pinto has been somewhat decent, the other two, not so much.

 

Their performance since then is mostly irrelevant. At the time, they had more value in trade than Pierre.

[JGalt73]

Range Factor is an awful defensive metric. Roberts isn't super defensively, but he's better than DeRosa.

 

I can't find other defensive metrics that are sorted by position. Derosa's overall numbers are skewed since he plays so many positions.

 

BP's Davenport Translations have both DeRosa and Roberts at average (+1 run) for last year and similar for their career.

 

David Pinto's Probabilistic Model of Range for 2007 has DeRosa near the bottom of the list at 95% of average and Roberts at average.

Edited March 11, 2008 by JGalt73

[17 Seconds]

Sergio Mitre, Ricky Nolasco, and Renyel Pinto for Juan Pierre

 

That is all.

And what have those three done since the trade though? Pinto has been somewhat decent, the other two, not so much.

 

That's not the point. Even if all 3 of those guys were out of baseball by 2011, it still would have been a bad trade. When they were traded, they all had value. Value that should have been used accordingly.

[rawaction]

Sergio Mitre, Ricky Nolasco, and Renyel Pinto for Juan Pierre

 

That is all.

And what have those three done since the trade though? Pinto has been somewhat decent, the other two, not so much.

 

Actually Pinto, the one that's done nothing. Mitre and Nolasco both have been alright when healthy. Both have already done at least as much as Pierre, when you combine them. Both have about 4 years under Marlins control to still do something.

[Mizzou]

Sergio Mitre, Ricky Nolasco, and Renyel Pinto for Juan Pierre

 

That is all.

And what have those three done since the trade though? Pinto has been somewhat decent, the other two, not so much.

 

That's not the point. Even if all 3 of those guys were out of baseball by 2011, it still would have been a bad trade. When they were traded, they all had value. Value that should have been used accordingly.

Actual value or perceived value? Unless you've been talking to a major league GM, then you have absolutely no idea what value they really had, other than what the Florida GM valued them at.

 

Pierre sucked, no doubt about it. The trade wasn't near as bad as people like to make it out to be though.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Josh Donaldson

[CubColtPacer]

Sergio Mitre, Ricky Nolasco, and Renyel Pinto for Juan Pierre

 

That is all.

And what have those three done since the trade though? Pinto has been somewhat decent, the other two, not so much.

 

Actually Pinto, the one that's done nothing. Mitre and Nolasco both have been alright when healthy. Both have already done at least as much as Pierre, when you combine them. Both have about 4 years under Marlins control to still do something.

 

As far as future value, I'd take Donaldson over all 3 of them.

 

At the same time, that trade I think perfectly symbolized Henry's biggest strength and some of his biggest flaws. He targets a scrappy player that is fast and has a good average. He recognizes which pitchers in his system are rated higher than they should be, but he fails to use that perceived value to get a good player. Most of Hendry's bad moves are not that staying pat would be a better option, but more that he probably should have been able to find a much better move for the value in his system.

 

I do question the perceived value of players sometime, and Mizzou makes a good point up there. At the same time, it has been shown that Pierre has high value from several G.M.s (higher than he deserves, and his recent contract proves that) so if Hendry was able to trade for him the Florida G.M. must have put some pretty decent value on those pitchers. In this case, the pitchers perceived value was higher than their actual value, and they were used to trade for another guy whose perceived value was higher than his actual value.

[UMFan83]

Todd Walker for Jose Ceda

 

I am mostly kidding though because anyone can trade 10 Todd Walkers and you will maybe get 1 decent prospect like Ceda. It is looking like a nice move but it could have easily been David Crouthers.

 

Hendry is a slightly below average GM who looks good based on his resources and the weakness of his division. Would we have nearly as good of a bullpen if we couldn't just throw millions at Howry and Eyre 2 offseasons ago? Would most teams have already cut their losses with Kerry Wood and allow him to rehab and convert to a reliever on another teams buck? Would most teams be able to 'fix' a dysfunctional team (built by the same GM) by throwing $136 million at the top FA hitter, and giving mildly outrageous sums to 2 starters?

 

A good GM robs another team more than he is robbed in trades, and consistently can find value in places where other teams cannot (and are not willing to pay for). The DLee and Ramirez trades were fantastic and literally shaped the franchise for the next decade. The Cubs have certainly dealt with adversity during his tenure as well (Wood/Prior, Mueller blowing out his knee, etc). But the bottom line is trades for "veteran starting pitchers" for 2 decent prospects when our starting 5 was not a problem, and throwing all your eggs in a basket for a player who doesn't play a position of need, while other positions remain a problem are not signs of a competent GM.

Edited March 11, 2008 by UMFan83

[BigbadB]

Sergio Mitre, Ricky Nolasco, and Renyel Pinto for Juan Pierre

 

That is all.

And what have those three done since the trade though? Pinto has been somewhat decent, the other two, not so much.

 

That's not the point. Even if all 3 of those guys were out of baseball by 2011, it still would have been a bad trade. When they were traded, they all had value. Value that should have been used accordingly.

Actual value or perceived value? Unless you've been talking to a major league GM, then you have absolutely no idea what value they really had, other than what the Florida GM valued them at.

 

Pierre sucked, no doubt about it. The trade wasn't near as bad as people like to make it out to be though.

 

Ignoring for just a moment what those 3 prospects have or haven't done in a Marlins uniform, Juan Pierre should never have been a target in the first place.

 

The failure to recognize that this team needed talented players to be added to the roster rather than a slap hitting lead off hitter is where the mistake began. Trading for a slappy lead off hitter making nearly 6m dollars and strapping the payroll from being able to add talented players is the second mistake. Including 3 cheap and young pitchers was the straw that broke the camel's back.

[KingCubsFan]

Sergio Mitre, Ricky Nolasco, and Renyel Pinto for Juan Pierre

 

That is all.

And what have those three done since the trade though? Pinto has been somewhat decent, the other two, not so much.

 

That's not the point. Even if all 3 of those guys were out of baseball by 2011, it still would have been a bad trade. When they were traded, they all had value. Value that should have been used accordingly.

Actual value or perceived value? Unless you've been talking to a major league GM, then you have absolutely no idea what value they really had, other than what the Florida GM valued them at.

 

Pierre sucked, no doubt about it. The trade wasn't near as bad as people like to make it out to be though.

 

Ignoring for just a moment what those 3 prospects have or haven't done in a Marlins uniform, Juan Pierre should never have been a target in the first place.

 

The failure to recognize that this team needed talented players to be added to the roster rather than a slap hitting lead off hitter is where the mistake began. Trading for a slappy lead off hitter making nearly 6m dollars and strapping the payroll from being able to add talented players is the second mistake. Including 3 cheap and young pitchers was the straw that broke the camel's back.

I think another thing that gets overlooked when evaluating the Pierre trade is that it illustrated just how much Hendry values the input of his manager and looks to build his team around things valued by the coaches. As a former coach himself, that's understandable. But it hurts when the team's philosophy changes all the time. When Baker came in, Hendry's philosophy was clearly power pitching and power hitting. Baker wanted speed, defense, etc. and we ended up with two crappy teams. With Piniella, you're seeing a return to power arms in the bullpen, more power, and an increased value in the ability to take a walk.

[ter]

 

He not only improves the defense (although DeRosa did O.K.) but that would give the Cubs one heck of a line-up from 1 through 5 plus Soto, etc..

 

Derosa actually ha a higher career RF at second.

 

 

I realize discussing stats can become an endless debate but I show secondbase career numbers as follows:

 

Roberts...FP=.987...Rfg=4.57...innings at position=6256

DeRosa...FP=.984...Rfg=4.09...innings at position=1564.7

 

 

Where did you get those numers from? ESPN.com has different ones. It has Deorsa as a 4.87 and Roberts as a 4.78.

 

Anyways, my point was to show that Roberts isn't really an upgrade defensively.

 

 

Here is where I got the info.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/

 

I would not be surprised if I went to three different places, I would get three different figures.

 

Regardless of DeRosa's and Roberts' stats, I am just not a huge fan of the Range Factor stat but that is just me.

[RedFlash]

i disagree with the notion that Hendry is a bad GM, because that is not the truth is....there are alot of GMs that are clearly worse then Hendry. And while it does seems questionable, Hendry does want to win. NAME ME ONE GM who hasn't made questionable moves. Every team, including the World Champs have signed players that said particular teams fanbase, are not thrilled with. So that's not a trait uncommon in baseball.

 

With that said, I do believe Hnedry is trying to put together a Championship Caliber team on the Northside. I know it's trendy to hate on Hendry, but this guy---regardless of the situation---has brought in Derrek Lee, Aramis Ramirez, Mark DeRosa, Ted Lilly, Alfonso Soriano, Kosoke Fukudome, through trades and signings. And players like Felix Pie, Carlos Zambrano, Carlos Marmol, Mike Weurtz, Rich Hill, Sean Marshall, Geovany Soto, Ryan Theriot, Sean Gallagher are players who were either signed as UDFA (Zambrano/Pie/Marmol, I believe) and drafted and developed. Those players are expected to be big contributors to the club for next half decade to decade. In other words...Hendry has arguably assemble the most talented team in franchise history, and people want to mark him as a Bad GM, because the teams hasn't don it on the field. I'm sorry boys and girls, Hendry could acquire an All-Star at every position, but if the manager can't pull the team together, you can't blame the GM. With Lou at the helm, I am confident the Cubs are as close to a World Series, as they have ever been.

 

I'm not saying Hendry is perfect, but continuing to knock him as a "Bad GM" is, IMO, without merit. All this guy has try to do, since becoming GM is try to put the Cubs on the right track to a Championship. IMO, we will get it, very soon.

[Post Count Padder]

What I was getting at in my two trade posts was not that I was contradicting myself, but showing that Hendry is neither terrible, nor great. For every good move he makes, there's a bad one and vice versa. He's an average GM who should do better with a high payroll and crappy division.

[JGalt73]

Another opinion...

 

Steve (PA): Joe, do the Cubs really have a trade package worthy of Brian Roberts without including Pie? The Gallagher/Cedeno/et al package being thrown around seems weak for a top-5 2B with two years under contract remaining.

 

Joe Sheehan: I saw a comparison somewhere--or maybe we were talking about it at a Feed--that Mark DeRosa and Brian Roberts had similar stats last year. DeRosa had the higher OBP, Roberts was better overall, but the gap wasn't huge.

 

Roberts is the better player, to be sure, and getting him would align the Cubs' talent better. However, I'm not convinced that Roberts + Fuld are better than Pie + DeRosa. And I say that as someone not at all sold on Pie.

 

If I'm the Orioles, there's no way I deal Roberts for a package where Gallagher is the best player.

[Moonshot]

Great lets talk about Hendry's trade history on this thread and make it even longer.

Aramis Ramirez and Kenny Lofton for Jose Hernandez, Bobby Hill, and Matt Bruback

 

Todd Hundley and Chad Hermanson for Eric Karros and Mark Grudzielanek

 

That is all.

 

Couldn't agree more. Hendry's steals have worked out far better long term for him than his busts have bit him in the long run.

 

I couldn't disagree more. Since Hendry became GM:

 

The Tribune has upped Cubs payroll from 70m to 110m+

The farm system has gone from one of the top farm systems to the bottom and back to the middle of the pack

 

Cubs record since 2003 is 407-403 while playing in arguably the worst division in baseball during that span.

 

My expectations are a bit higher than yours, I guess.

 

My expectations are as high as anyone on this board. I was specifically remarking on his trades, not FA's, drafts, etc. As for his overall record, it wasn't Hendry that broke D. Lee's wrist in 2006, it wasn't Hendry who let Prior and Wood in for 120+ pitch counts on a regular basis. The GM's job is to give the manager the pieces to win, and the manager to put those pieces in the right place to win the games.

 

I'll say that Hendry's drafts have been putrid to say the least, but FA's and trades, I can't complain too much. Overall I would rate him an average GM, slightly above. Just my opinion though.

[Backtobanks]

I go along with Hendry being an average GM. Of course we all know that all of the posters on NSBB would be better than Hendry. (Disclaimer- we have hindsight on our side.) :lol:

[UMFan83]

I really hate when people post info a day late, but I don't remember seeing this. If it has already been posted, ridicule me

 

From SI.com's Jon Heyman yesterday

 

Most baseball people still think Brian Roberts will go to the Cubs before spring is over. What may be delaying a trade is for the Orioles to complete their scouting of the Cubs' minor leaguers.

 

The teams have discussed pitchers Sean Gallagher and Sean Marshall, outfielder Matt Murton and infielder Ronny Cedeno as potential trade compensation, and the Baltimore Sun recently reported that one offer was for Gallagher, Cedeno, pitching prospect Donald Veal and a fourth player.

ADVERTISEMENT

 

Roberts recently told me he considered the Cubs "a tremendous organization." Meanwhile, Roberts' spring locker mate, Kevin Millar, who's already seen star shortstop Miguel Tejada and talented young lefty Erik Bedard leave in Baltimore's overdue rebuilding project, implored, "Make sure the Cubs know he's broken down and they can't take him.'' (Millar was kidding. Roberts is fine.)

[CubinNY]

i disagree with the notion that Hendry is a bad GM, because that is not the truth is....there are alot of GMs that are clearly worse then Hendry.

That's the standard. We want a GM who is clearly not the worst in baseball. .500 here we come! Where's the beer?

[Ding Dong Johnson]

there are alot of GMs that are clearly worse then Hendry.

and a lot that are clearly better -- that still makes him either a bad GM or a mediocre one at the very best