MacPhail: Deal is dead (p. 297), stop posting, go outside

[rawaction]

 

If Hendry is able to get Roberts for Marshall, Gallegher,Cedeno , he might go for it and deal Pie as part of a package to get an upgrade at short or a top of the rotation starter. Cameron isn't a terrible option. He is still a great defender with a strong arm and he provides some speed/power but nothing in terms of average/OBP.

 

While Cameron doesn't hit for a high average, he's always had a good batting eye. Career .111 BB/PA, which is great. If he hits in the .260-.270 range, he'd be among the better CFs in the game. And an FYI, he hit over .268 in the 2 years prior to 2007.

[CubColtPacer]

Lieber is a bad option, I mean really, look at his numbers the past two years, not really good. He's also in his late 30's, regression is the norm at that age.

 

As SSR has pointed out, his ERA has actually been right around league average for starting pitchers. It hasn't been awful.

 

Plus, look at his home and away ERA splits from his time with the Cubs, and his time with the Phillies:

 

Cubs:

99

Home: 4.20, Away: 3.99

00

Home: 3.71, Away: 5.15

01

Home: 3.39, Away: 4.24

02

Home: 3.09, Away: 4.31

 

Phillies

05

Home: 4.38, Away: 4.05

06

Home: 5.18, Away: 4.64

07

Home: 5.26, Away: 4.19

 

The last 3 years in Chicago, Lieber dominated at Wrigley. His road ERA was over a point over his his home ERA each season, which is a dramatic split. As you can see, his time with the Phillies has been hurt by their very hard ballpark to pitch in with home ERA's being worse than road ERA's every year.

 

Take him out of Philly and put him in Wrigley again? His numbers most likely improve, not regress. At worst he'll likely be a league average starter once again, which is a better guarantee than you can say for Dempster.

[badnews]

I think Lieber's 1999-2002 numbers say nothing useful about him right now. Lieber's nearing that vaunted John Thomson point in his career.

[RynoHawk23]

I'd take Marquis & Dempster over Lieber any day of the week. You do realize you are pulling for a guy that is old and has a near 5.00 era the last two years. I don't understand the thought That Dempster is completely awful. He's fine as a #4 starter. Its not like we're trotting him out there after Zambrano. Marquis is a fine #5 starter. Number 4 and 5 starters are not expected to win 15 games and have 3.00 era's.

 

The real problem with these guys is when/if we make the playoffs. Because in all actuality Lilly is a #3 and Hill is a #4. We are missing the dominant #2 or #1a.

[inari]

I'd take Marquis & Dempster over Lieber any day of the week. You do realize you are pulling for a guy that is old and has a near 5.00 era the last two years. I don't understand the thought That Dempster is completely awful. He's fine as a #4 starter. Its not like we're trotting him out there after Zambrano. Marquis is a fine #5 starter. Number 4 and 5 starters are not expected to win 15 games and have 3.00 era's.

 

The real problem with these guys is when/if we make the playoffs. Because in all actuality Lilly is a #3 and Hill is a #4. We are missing the dominant #2 or #1a.

 

I don't know where to start with this.

 

Lieber is better than Dempster or Marquis. He's league average. Both of the others are well below average. But that's not even the point I want to address.

 

This #3 #4 garbage is useless. Rich Hill is a very good starter. He was probably the best pitcher on the Cubs last year. Ted Lilly might have been too. But really, who cares? They're both good starters, and it doesn't matter where they'd be sorted in whatever virtual rotation it is that allows guys to be classified as #1-5.

 

Also, stop underrating Rich Hill. He'd be the fourth best starter on roughly zero pitching staffs around the league.

[David]

Not to mention the fact that Marquis is ahead of Dempster on the depth chart.

[mul21]

Lieber is a bad option, I mean really, look at his numbers the past two years, not really good. He's also in his late 30's, regression is the norm at that age.

 

As SSR has pointed out, his ERA has actually been right around league average for starting pitchers. It hasn't been awful.

 

Plus, look at his home and away ERA splits from his time with the Cubs, and his time with the Phillies:

 

Cubs:

99

Home: 4.20, Away: 3.99

00

Home: 3.71, Away: 5.15

01

Home: 3.39, Away: 4.24

02

Home: 3.09, Away: 4.31

 

Phillies

05

Home: 4.38, Away: 4.05

06

Home: 5.18, Away: 4.64

07

Home: 5.26, Away: 4.19

 

The last 3 years in Chicago, Lieber dominated at Wrigley. His road ERA was over a point over his his home ERA each season, which is a dramatic split. As you can see, his time with the Phillies has been hurt by their very hard ballpark to pitch in with home ERA's being worse than road ERA's every year.

 

Take him out of Philly and put him in Wrigley again? His numbers most likely improve, not regress. At worst he'll likely be a league average starter once again, which is a better guarantee than you can say for Dempster.

 

Now, knowing that Lieber has been a ground ball pitcher when he is going good, has his GB/FB ratio taken a hit in the last few years that would make his Philly #'s out of whack since the ball jumps out of there? I seem to recall that him keeping the ball down was the reason for his success with the Cubs.

[CubColtPacer]

Lieber is a bad option, I mean really, look at his numbers the past two years, not really good. He's also in his late 30's, regression is the norm at that age.

 

As SSR has pointed out, his ERA has actually been right around league average for starting pitchers. It hasn't been awful.

 

Plus, look at his home and away ERA splits from his time with the Cubs, and his time with the Phillies:

 

Cubs:

99

Home: 4.20, Away: 3.99

00

Home: 3.71, Away: 5.15

01

Home: 3.39, Away: 4.24

02

Home: 3.09, Away: 4.31

 

Phillies

05

Home: 4.38, Away: 4.05

06

Home: 5.18, Away: 4.64

07

Home: 5.26, Away: 4.19

 

The last 3 years in Chicago, Lieber dominated at Wrigley. His road ERA was over a point over his his home ERA each season, which is a dramatic split. As you can see, his time with the Phillies has been hurt by their very hard ballpark to pitch in with home ERA's being worse than road ERA's every year.

 

Take him out of Philly and put him in Wrigley again? His numbers most likely improve, not regress. At worst he'll likely be a league average starter once again, which is a better guarantee than you can say for Dempster.

 

Now, knowing that Lieber has been a ground ball pitcher when he is going good, has his GB/FB ratio taken a hit in the last few years that would make his Philly #'s out of whack since the ball jumps out of there? I seem to recall that him keeping the ball down was the reason for his success with the Cubs.

 

Actually no. He's never been that much of a ground ball pitcher since coming from the Pirates.

 

1999-1.33

2000-1.69

2001-1.34

2002-1.23

2004-1.43

2005-1.29

2006-1.23

2007-1.52

 

So as you can see, he's remained pretty consistent in ground ball percentage over the years with a couple outliers.

 

And badnews, I'm not trying to point out his numbers from 99-02 as an indication that he could ever be that good again. I pointed it out to show that he thrived in Wrigley Field. If he came to the Cubs, I'd expect his home split to be better or at least equal to his road split next year. If he had pitched in Wrigley the last 3 seasons instead of Citizens Bank Park, his numbers would have likely been a lot better. His road split the last few seasons hasn't been bad at all..he'd still be a league average pitcher or better in a ballpark that doesn't favor offense so much.

[fromthestretch]

I'd take Marquis & Dempster over Lieber any day of the week. You do realize you are pulling for a guy that is old and has a near 5.00 era the last two years. I don't understand the thought That Dempster is completely awful. He's fine as a #4 starter. Its not like we're trotting him out there after Zambrano. Marquis is a fine #5 starter. Number 4 and 5 starters are not expected to win 15 games and have 3.00 era's.

 

The real problem with these guys is when/if we make the playoffs. Because in all actuality Lilly is a #3 and Hill is a #4. We are missing the dominant #2 or #1a.

 

I'm not saying ERA is the best way to evaluate a starter, but since you used it, I'm a little unclear as to how you can support the idea of Dempster as a starter when he has a career ERA of 4.99 as a starter, yet at the same time, you don't want Lieber because he "has a near 5.00 ERA the last two years" (it's actually 4.80 as a starter). When he doesn't have to pitch in Philadelphia, which really favors hitters, he has a 4.36 ERA in 18 starts the past two seasons.

 

On top of that, it appears you favor him over Marquis, who was at least league-average last year.

 

Dempster is no longer a reasonable option as a starter.

[JeffH]

I'm completely against the idea of Dempster as a starting pitcher, but using his career numbers as a starter isn't altogether fair to him.

 

He pitched a lot of those innings with his arm in bad shape.

[UBlink]

I don't think I could stomach Colon.

 

That's OK, he's got enough stomach for him and you.

[fromthestretch]

I'm completely against the idea of Dempster as a starting pitcher, but using his career numbers as a starter isn't altogether fair to him.

 

He pitched a lot of those innings with his arm in bad shape.

 

OK then. I'll take his numbers from 1999-2002. He made 11 starts in 1998 with a 7.08 ERA. I excluded that since it was his first season in the majors. I also stopped at 2002, since that was the last year he made at least 25 starts. These are his numbers in 125 starts from 1999-2002:

 

793.2 IP

802 H

395 BB

659 K

4.65 ERA

1.51 WHIP

 

Still awful. He's really only had one season as a starter that you could classify as decent.

[UMFan83]

Someone on OH mentioned that Rosenthal was on Comcast Sports Baltimore last night and had the following to say

 

1) The Orioles will trade Bedard before Roberts

 

2) As we've heard before, we are 1 player from a deal with the Mariners

 

3) The Indians are also interested in Roberts and

 

4) Other teams may get involved for Roberts as well.

 

Great I'm sure we'll either be outbid or Hendry will randomly give up the farm to get him.

[anabiono]

I'm completely against the idea of Dempster as a starting pitcher, but using his career numbers as a starter isn't altogether fair to him.

 

He pitched a lot of those innings with his arm in bad shape.

 

yeah, but you watched him "tight-rope" in the games last season right?

 

what makes you think that is going to be any easier to watch if he takes the mound in the 1st?

 

it will be a disaster...probably on par or worse than wade miller...

 

just say no to dempster in any situation...lets trade him if possible

[JeffH]

I'm completely against the idea of Dempster as a starting pitcher, but using his career numbers as a starter isn't altogether fair to him.

 

He pitched a lot of those innings with his arm in bad shape.

 

yeah, but you watched him "tight-rope" in the games last season right?

 

what makes you think that is going to be any easier to watch if he takes the mound in the 1st?

 

it will be a disaster...probably on par or worse than wade miller...

 

just say no to dempster in any situation...lets trade him if possible

 

Reading comprehension is a good thing.

[CUBZ99]

Someone on OH mentioned that Rosenthal was on Comcast Sports Baltimore last night and had the following to say

 

1) The Orioles will trade Bedard before Roberts

 

2) As we've heard before, we are 1 player from a deal with the Mariners

 

3) The Indians are also interested in Roberts and

 

4) Other teams may get involved for Roberts as well.

 

Great I'm sure we'll either be outbid or Hendry will randomly give up the farm to get him.

 

I disagree, there is no way that Hendry trades Pie, Marmol, Hill or the like for Roberts.

 

I'm more afraid that he will attempt to sign an Eckstein or trade for an inferior 2B. Has it been reported what Hendry's obsession with finding a replacement for DeRosa is? For the life of me I don't understand why he is attempting to replace one of the more productive players on the team. He should be focusing his trade efforts on a top of the rotation starter.

[BigbadB]

Ryan Dempster's walk rate is and always has been a concern of mine. If you stick him in the rotation, he's going to walk a lot of guys who in turn score a lot of runs.

[Tyrant]

 

Great I'm sure we'll either be outbid or Hendry will randomly give up the farm to get him.

 

Nah, I think it'll probably be the rumored package that goes through. It's just on hold because January is Goose Gossage's month in the sun. Once February comes around, MLB can complete the paperwork.

[UMFan83]

Someone on OH mentioned that Rosenthal was on Comcast Sports Baltimore last night and had the following to say

 

1) The Orioles will trade Bedard before Roberts

 

2) As we've heard before, we are 1 player from a deal with the Mariners

 

3) The Indians are also interested in Roberts and

 

4) Other teams may get involved for Roberts as well.

 

Great I'm sure we'll either be outbid or Hendry will randomly give up the farm to get him.

 

I disagree, there is no way that Hendry trades Pie, Marmol, Hill or the like for Roberts.

 

I'm more afraid that he will attempt to sign an Eckstein or trade for an inferior 2B. Has it been reported what Hendry's obsession with finding a replacement for DeRosa is? For the life of me I don't understand why he is attempting to replace one of the more productive players on the team. He should be focusing his trade efforts on a top of the rotation starter.

 

Don't know what his obsession is, but Eckstein already signed with Toronto

[Derwood]

ERA+ :

 

Lieber 2006: 95

Lieber 2007: 98

 

Marquis 2006: 74

Marquis 2007: 101

 

so Lieber was way better in 06, while 07 was a coin flip

[CUBZ99]

Someone on OH mentioned that Rosenthal was on Comcast Sports Baltimore last night and had the following to say

 

1) The Orioles will trade Bedard before Roberts

 

2) As we've heard before, we are 1 player from a deal with the Mariners

 

3) The Indians are also interested in Roberts and

 

4) Other teams may get involved for Roberts as well.

 

Great I'm sure we'll either be outbid or Hendry will randomly give up the farm to get him.

 

I disagree, there is no way that Hendry trades Pie, Marmol, Hill or the like for Roberts.

 

I'm more afraid that he will attempt to sign an Eckstein or trade for an inferior 2B. Has it been reported what Hendry's obsession with finding a replacement for DeRosa is? For the life of me I don't understand why he is attempting to replace one of the more productive players on the team. He should be focusing his trade efforts on a top of the rotation starter.

 

Don't know what his obsession is, but Eckstein already signed with Toronto

 

:oops: I knew that.

[anabiono]

I'm completely against the idea of Dempster as a starting pitcher, but using his career numbers as a starter isn't altogether fair to him.

 

He pitched a lot of those innings with his arm in bad shape.

 

yeah, but you watched him "tight-rope" in the games last season right?

 

what makes you think that is going to be any easier to watch if he takes the mound in the 1st?

 

it will be a disaster...probably on par or worse than wade miller...

 

just say no to dempster in any situation...lets trade him if possible

 

Reading comprehension is a good thing.

 

doh...that was before coffee!

 

#-o

[jersey cubs fan]

ERA+ :

 

Lieber 2006: 95

Lieber 2007: 98

 

Marquis 2006: 74

Marquis 2007: 101

 

so Lieber was way better in 06, while 07 was a coin flip

 

This isn't based on any facts. But my take on these guys is Lieber can be a stable back of the rotation guy, with no real upside. Marquis may give you a few more excellent games, but also more disaster starts. I could see going after Lieber with the hopes that he won't be a disaster. Maybe not great, but not horrible. The only thing is, he's way past TJS days, and coming off foot surgery. You can't really hope he'll be any better than he's been the past couple years, and he might be worse.

[jersey cubs fan]

I'm completely against the idea of Dempster as a starting pitcher, but using his career numbers as a starter isn't altogether fair to him.

 

He pitched a lot of those innings with his arm in bad shape.

 

yeah, but you watched him "tight-rope" in the games last season right?

 

what makes you think that is going to be any easier to watch if he takes the mound in the 1st?

 

it will be a disaster...probably on par or worse than wade miller...

 

just say no to dempster in any situation...lets trade him if possible

 

Reading comprehension is a good thing.

 

I don't see how it's not fair. He also pitched a lot of those innings as a fresh armed kid with no physical limitations. And he pitched a lot of his innings being protected in the bullpen. Ryan Dempster is what his career suggests he is, and his career numbers are a very good indicator of what you'd get if he came back to the rotation, not good.

[Soul]

I'm completely against the idea of Dempster as a starting pitcher, but using his career numbers as a starter isn't altogether fair to him.

 

He pitched a lot of those innings with his arm in bad shape.

 

yeah, but you watched him "tight-rope" in the games last season right?

 

what makes you think that is going to be any easier to watch if he takes the mound in the 1st?

 

it will be a disaster...probably on par or worse than wade miller...

 

just say no to dempster in any situation...lets trade him if possible

 

Reading comprehension is a good thing.

 

I don't see how it's not fair. He also pitched a lot of those innings as a fresh armed kid with no physical limitations. And he pitched a lot of his innings being protected in the bullpen. Ryan Dempster is what his career suggests he is, and his career numbers are a very good indicator of what you'd get if he came back to the rotation, not good.

 

He's going to suck.

 

That's pretty much it.