The Kosuke Fukudome & Hiroki Kuroda Thread

[Mephistopheles]

 

95% is 154 games. Most full time starters get between 150 and 160 starts a season. Bumping the PT down for each player to 90% (145 games)

 

 

The Cubs had 1 guy play 150 games in 2007 and just 3 with as many as 140. They had 5 over 140 in 2006, 3 in 2005, 4 in 2004. There were only 74 players in all of baseball to play in 150 games last year, 2.5 per team. And of course, games played isn't the same as playing time, since guys can enter a game as a pinch hitter/late inning defensive replacement, or leave the game early for a variety of reasons.

 

The average NL team got 720 PA out of its 4 spot. 90% of that is 648. And only 30 NL players had that many PA, 1.9 per team. In other words, the vast majority don't get 90% of their team's playing time.

 

None of this means anything. As I posted earlier, I reduced it down to 85% and the runs went down by less than 10 runs. I was already playing DeRosa, Soto and Aramis at below that percent. Regardless of how you slice it up the Cubs can be expected to score at least 40 runs more than they did last season (thats 790) if they don't make a single move. That's been the point the entire time.

 

80% PT gives us 792 runs and gives just one player on the team more than 600 PAs.

 

85% gives this many PAs

650.3 Soriano

635.8 Theriot

621.4 Lee

606.9 Ramirez

592.5 Murton

578.0 Jones

497.3 DeRosa

426.4 Soto

 

this isnt the issue you make it out to be. as a rough estimate its fine.

[jersey cubs fan]

Regardless of how you slice it up the Cubs can be expected to score at least 40 runs more than they did last season (thats 790) if they don't make a single move. That's been the point the entire time.

 

If they make no improvements I'd take the under on 790 without question. You aren't taking into account things like underperformance, injury, and substitutions by inept players. You paint a very rosy pitcher where nobody gets hurt or underperforms. That's how Jim Hendry puts together teams and why he's always so confused when they don't live up to his expectations.

 

The Cubs haven't been an inept offensive ballclub for years by accident.

[Electron Blue]

Regardless of how you slice it up the Cubs can be expected to score at least 40 runs more than they did last season (thats 790) if they don't make a single move. That's been the point the entire time.

 

If they make no improvements I'd take the under on 790 without question. You aren't taking into account things like underperformance, injury, and substitutions by inept players. You paint a very rosy pitcher where nobody gets hurt or underperforms. That's how Jim Hendry puts together teams and why he's always so confused when they don't live up to his expectations.

 

The Cubs haven't been an inept offensive ballclub for years by accident.

 

But Jacque Jones underperformed last year, Lee's power was way down, and the entire catching position was below what Geo should provide this year...

 

Claiming potential injuries is such an easy argument... as easy as it is unnecessary to make. We could go get A-rod, Bonds, and Cabrera, and we'd still have "underperformances, injuries, and substitutions by inept players" to worry about. Meph's making a rough estimation about how these players would do -- that's all it is.

[Mephistopheles]

Regardless of how you slice it up the Cubs can be expected to score at least 40 runs more than they did last season (thats 790) if they don't make a single move. That's been the point the entire time.

 

If they make no improvements I'd take the under on 790 without question. You aren't taking into account things like underperformance, injury, and substitutions by inept players. You paint a very rosy pitcher where nobody gets hurt or underperforms. That's how Jim Hendry puts together teams and why he's always so confused when they don't live up to his expectations.

 

The Cubs haven't been an inept offensive ballclub for years by accident.

 

I already showed why the Cubs offense didnt break 800 last year: Jones sucking and Barrett not hitting. It has nothing to do with injuries. Usually some guys underperform, but at the same time usually guys over perform at the same time so the effect cancels out

 

that didnt happen last year for the cubs. it was bad luck

[JeffH]

800 runs?

 

The Chicago Cubs?

 

The under on that is one of the surest bets in all of sports.

 

The Cubs have topped 800 runs once in the last 30 years.

[David]

800 runs?

 

The Chicago Cubs?

 

The under on that is one of the surest bets in all of sports.

 

The Cubs have topped 800 runs once in the last 30 years.

 

While you might have a point in that they are unlikely to reach 800 runs next year, this is a pretty stupid reason to use as support for your argument.

[Derwood]

i think it's safe to say that while Jones/Catcher regain form, other players will balance it out by sucking badly.

[1908]

Some guy on another board said he heard on 670 The Score today that the Cubs were close to signing Fukudome..

Has he even become a FA yet? I haven't heard if he's filed.

It would be nice if it were true

I don't think he's declared yet. Kuroda has.

The official list of NPB players who have declared for free agency will not be released until after November 12.

[Post Count Padder]

Some guy on another board said he heard on 670 The Score today that the Cubs were close to signing Fukudome..

If true, I'd be really really excited. However, I doubt we'd hear anything like that right away. I'm not even sure if he's filed for FA yet.

[Mephistopheles]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2007/11/iwase-may-stay-.html

[Guest]

:(

[Mephistopheles]

loogys arent important. the difference between a crappy one and a good one is a good run or three. not worth losing sleep over.

[Bruno7481]

Was listening to XM earlier this afternoon and they had a guest on who was speculating that Fukudome could stay in Japan and sign a deal with the Giants.

[nilodnayr]

for giggles i put in tejada at a .290 EqA and .360 OBP --> 846 runs

for giggles i put in greene at a .270 EqA and .310 OBP --> 828 runs

for giggles i put in rodriguez at .325 EqA and .390 OBP --> 884 runs

 

If you keep the pitching staff constant (from last year). Then Alex Rodriguez pushes us from 807 runs to 884 runs (+77 runs) and from 91.4 wins to 97.9 wins (+6.5).

 

Isn't the marginal expected revenue between a 91.4 win team and a 97.9 win team something north of $50M? Quite and ROI on ARod.

[Yanksfan1523]

 

FUKUDOME!

 

I'm ready to get that jersey!

 

http://img91.imageshack.us/img91/6165/fukudomejk2.jpg

 

I'll take 3!! 2 children and 1 adult!!

[UMFan83]

 

FUKUDOME!

 

I'm ready to get that jersey!

 

http://img91.imageshack.us/img91/6165/fukudomejk2.jpg

 

I'll take 3!! 2 children and 1 adult!!

 

That looks so awesome, I might buy one even though there is only rumors that the Cubs are interested in him

[nilodnayr]

Except of course that he already said he would have Kosuke on the back of his jersey.

[Yanksfan1523]

Except of course that he already said he would have Kosuke on the back of his jersey.

 

Players should not be allowed to do that. Ichiro started that, I hate it.

[Sarcastic]

Am I the only person who thinks that Fukudome shirts would sell even if he decided to go with his first name on the official jersey?

[nilodnayr]

Am I the only person who thinks that Fukudome shirts would sell even if he decided to go with his first name on the official jersey?

Nope

[Roast]

Except of course that he already said he would have Kosuke on the back of his jersey.

 

Players should not be allowed to do that. Ichiro started that, I hate it.

 

They should go the way of the XFL.... "Hehateme"...

[BCVM22]

Players should not be allowed to do that. Ichiro started that, I hate it.

 

I think in this case it can be allowed. The guy's name is FUKUDOME. It's a perfectly normal surname in Japan, not so much here. If the guy wants to head off a possible minor distraction before it starts and just not worry about it, I'm fine with it.

[Yanksfan1523]

Players should not be allowed to do that. Ichiro started that, I hate it.

 

I think in this case it can be allowed. The guy's name is FUKUDOME. It's a perfectly normal surname in Japan, not so much here. If the guy wants to head off a possible minor distraction before it starts and just not worry about it, I'm fine with it.

 

I guess.

[NCCubFan]

As far as I'm concerned, if he signs with the Cubs he can asked to be called anything in the world he wants to be called.

[TheDude]

Except of course that he already said he would have Kosuke on the back of his jersey.

 

Players should not be allowed to do that. Ichiro started that, I hate it.

 

Are you trying to be offensive, or just don't know any better?