The Kosuke Fukudome & Hiroki Kuroda Thread

[Guest]

Yeah, I don't want Silva because of his price range. Given the budget and sale, signing Silva would probably mean little help for the offense.

[Mephistopheles]

Honestly, the Cubs could not make a change this year and their offense would produce more last year. Jacque Jones' offense in CF is really good even with a .330 OBP. Murton would be a good bet to EqA .285 or .290 and you would likely see more power from Lee and better production out of the catcher position with Soto. If the Cubs don't make a move, they'd finish #3 or so in the league in runs score IMO. It's not as big as a need as most people here make it out to be. This team can score 820 runs as it is next season -- which would place them third in the league and score 70 more runs than this season.

 

Honestly I would rank the Cubs needs in this order:

 

1. Real Shortstop

2. #5 Starter

3. Good Corner outfielder

 

I wouldn't put CF as a need. I'm content with Jones' above average centerfield defense (i know...) and his likely return to a .275 EqA next season. The pitching staff is likely to regress a lot.

[Lefty]

Meph, you are too quick to see offensive improvement. If you go to ESPN.com you can see the breakdown of offense by position.

 

The crazy thing is that Murton and Floyd hit like Soriano when they played LF. Our LFers hit 39 HRs. Is Soriano going to beat that? Our RFs hit about what the most enthusiastic Murton supporter would hope .293/.375/.419. The only chance for offensive improvement in the OF is if Jones or Pie hits 20 HRs.

 

In the infield you have a similar problem. Even with Ramirez sitting 20% of the time, our third basemen hit .310/.366/.520. Our second basemen produced along the lines of DeRosa in total .286/.353/.413. Any gain in the infield besides SS comes down to Lee hitting more HRs than last year. We can hope but it is not a gimme.

 

It would seem that catcher would be an easy improvement. But I am not so sure. Barrett was mediocre for a third of the season, but had 8 HRs. Kendall had a decent OBP for a third of the season. Soto played a little and padded the numbers. But over a full season I don't see Soto/Blanco doing much better than the .239/.304/.369 line of 2007. I mean Blanco or Hill will catch at least thirty games. And do we really know what kind of hitter Soto is?

 

Offensive improvement will not come hoping what we have on hand will improve. Whether we will (or should) spend the money or whether appropriate players are available is the question. But it would seem that we can't take too many offensive positions off the table.

[Mephistopheles]

Using this:

 

2007 OBP * .5 + 2007 PECOTA OBP * .25 + 2006 OBP * .25 = 2008 Projection OBP

2007 EqA * .5 + 2007 PECOTA EqA * .25 + 2006 EqA * .25 = 2008 Projection EqA

 

This amount of PT (and batting order)

Soriano 95%

Theriot 95%

Lee 95%

Ramirez 80%

Murton 90%

Jones 90%

DeRosa 75%

Soto 66%

 

and soto's line is a .270 EqA with a .325 OBP.

and theriots 2006 is thrown out

 

We get 801 runs scored. That's with Aramis missing 35 games. Let him play 150 games and we're up to 807 runs scored.

 

The projections for the starters:

Name OBP EqA

Soriano .344 .296

Theriot .327 .244

Lee .384 .297

Ramirez .362 .297

Murton .359 .275

Jones .337 .264

DeRosa .359 .274

Soto .325 .270

 

That's slightly optimistic on Soriano and pessimistic on Jones. The others? Pretty spot on. So 807 runs, sorry that's still going to be #3 or so.

[Guest]

Ugh, Cubs need a new SS.

[Mephistopheles]

for giggles i put in tejada at a .290 EqA and .360 OBP --> 846 runs

for giggles i put in greene at a .270 EqA and .310 OBP --> 828 runs

for giggles i put in rodriguez at .325 EqA and .390 OBP --> 884 runs

 

If you keep the pitching staff constant (from last year). Then Alex Rodriguez pushes us from 807 runs to 884 runs (+77 runs) and from 91.4 wins to 97.9 wins (+6.5).

[1908]

www.suntimes.com/sports/baseball/cubs/640355,cubs110707.article

Somebody pinch me.

[C.C.]

www.suntimes.com/sports/baseball/cubs/640355,cubs110707.article

Somebody pinch me.

 

Yawwwnnnn...Let me know when we actually sign someone.

[jersey cubs fan]

Because Silva's one of the better FA options. He's going to be priced out of the Cubs range, so don't worry about it. If you want a second Japanese player to go with Fukudome to ease his transition, don't get in a bidding war over a guy may wind up being a LOOGY. Take a flier on Tomohiro Nioka. He's interested in coming to the majors this year. He's not a great player, he's maybe the third best shortstop in Japan, but he has enough power to hit 10 home runs and could hit .280/.320 or so. He is a shortstop and is supposedly pretty good there defensively. If we don't have a plan to replace Theriot, signing this guy and having the two splitting time wouldn't be the worst idea in the world. I don't think Nioka is going to generate a lot of buzz to the point where he's expensive.

 

Does he happen to hit left handed, or hit well against RHP? If so, I'd be for a platoon partner with Theriot, as long as they do actually improve the offense elsewhere. Because there's no way this lineup goes top 3 by staying with the status quo.

[Lefty]

Using this:

 

2007 OBP * .5 + 2007 PECOTA OBP * .25 + 2006 OBP * .25 = 2008 Projection OBP

2007 EqA * .5 + 2007 PECOTA EqA * .25 + 2006 EqA * .25 = 2008 Projection EqA

 

This amount of PT (and batting order)

Soriano 95%

Theriot 95%

Lee 95%

Ramirez 80%

Murton 90%

Jones 90%

DeRosa 75%

Soto 66%

 

and soto's line is a .270 EqA with a .325 OBP.

and theriots 2006 is thrown out

 

We get 801 runs scored. That's with Aramis missing 35 games. Let him play 150 games and we're up to 807 runs scored.

 

The projections for the starters:

Name OBP EqA

Soriano .344 .296

Theriot .327 .244

Lee .384 .297

Ramirez .362 .297

Murton .359 .275

Jones .337 .264

DeRosa .359 .274

Soto .325 .270

 

That's slightly optimistic on Soriano and pessimistic on Jones. The others? Pretty spot on. So 807 runs, sorry that's still going to be #3 or so.

 

No need to apologize to me, I'll take that. But can I ask you a few questions since you are the man with the numbers?

 

How do your PT assessments compare with normal patterns? I.e., even if a guy is healthy all year, do they necessarily play in 95% of their team's games? How did the Cubs do versus what PECOTA had them pegged for in 2007? And finally, were our actual runs scored meaningfully different from what any of the Runs Created formulas would have predicted?

 

Also, Jones was not awful against LHPs this year (small sample). You are giving him 90% playing time. I think he'd be hard pressed to have a .337 OBP in that scenario. Probably doesn't alter your projection that much though. But unless your answers are a surprise to me, and the Cubs were "unlucky," expecting an older team to score 50 more runs without major changes in personnel seems farfetched. Crappy bench players play and drag things down. This ain't Strat-O-Matic.

[PrimeTime]

Some guy on another board said he heard on 670 The Score today that the Cubs were close to signing Fukudome..

[cbbryan]

Some guy on another board said he heard on 670 The Score today that the Cubs were close to signing Fukudome..

 

Has he even become a FA yet? I haven't heard if he's filed.

 

It would be nice if it were true

[inari]

I would love for that to be true. I doubt it is.

[Roast]

Some guy on another board said he heard on 670 The Score today that the Cubs were close to signing Fukudome..

 

Has he even become a FA yet? I haven't heard if he's filed.

 

It would be nice if it were true

 

 

Wasn't there a thread earlier that said he had? idk.

 

I really hope we sign Fukudome so I can mispronounce his name like an immature middle schooler. Oh, and because he seems like a pretty good ballplayer, too.

[Moonlight Graham]

I really think Hendry is going to get Fukudome. \:D/

[inari]

Any word on whether the Score reported anything?

[Mephistopheles]

How do your PT assessments compare with normal patterns? I.e., even if a guy is healthy all year, do they necessarily play in 95% of their team's games? How did the Cubs do versus what PECOTA had them pegged for in 2007? And finally, were our actual runs scored meaningfully different from what any of the Runs Created formulas would have predicted?

 

95% is 154 games. Most full time starters get between 150 and 160 starts a season. Bumping the PT down for each player to 90% (145 games) and we get 803 runs versus 807. Dumping down the PT to 85% and we're at 798 runs. So it isn't that big of a difference. Using a similar method for the 2007 Cubs I got I think 820 runs as well. Keep in mind that that was with Barett EqAing like .285 and our RFs having an EqA around .275 (Jones), LF having an EqA around .280 (Murton) and Soriano in CF. The Cubs got a .231 EqA from their catchers, compared to a projection of .275 (minus 33 runs). They got .282 out of LF, fine. They got a .245 EqA out of CF instead of .285 or so (minus 33 runs). They got a .264 EqA out of RF, compared to a prediction of about .275 (minus 10 runs). Those add up to be about -75 runs or so, which is about how many runs the Cubs were below 820. None of the other positions overproduced their expected value.

 

As far as comparing to the projections, the 2007 Cubs offense significantly underperformed by 70 runs.

[BigbadB]

I really think Hendry is going to get Fukudome. \:D/

 

Assuming that happens, and the Cubs also overbid for Kaz Matsui, I wonder what sort of improvement that will be for the offense.

 

I would also think that this would allow the Cubs a bit more flexibility with the payroll to bring Wood and Prior back, especially if they can find a way to move Jacque Jones.

 

With Pie in CF, Fukudome in RF and Matsui at SS against RH pitchers, they would now have 3 lefty bats in the line up against RHP on a regular basis. I also wonder if the Cubs would move Soriano from the top spot if they had a guy like Fukudome to bat near the top of the order, or if they would go with Soriano and Fukudome 1/2?

 

While none of this is a given, it sure seems like the direction the Cubs are leaning. I don't hate Matsui, but I'm not overly fond of his overall production. But, a platoon of Theriot and Matsui might be better than an everyday Theriot.

[Mephistopheles]

I really think Hendry is going to get Fukudome. \:D/

 

Assuming that happens, and the Cubs also overbid for Kaz Matsui, I wonder what sort of improvement that will be for the offense.

 

Where do you want me to insert Fukudome? Rightfield (over Murton) or Centerfield (over Jones). I would assume RF for now.

 

No changes:

808.7 Runs (91.5 Wins)

 

Add Fukudome in RF with a .285 EqA and .375 OBP and batting him second:

820.8 Runs (92.6 Wins)

 

Add Matsui at SS with a .320 OBP and a .250 EqA

824.5 Runs (92.9 Wins)

[inari]

I'm listening to the Score and they're not saying anything about this deal being close.

[David]

Is Matsui even that much of an improvement over Theriot? I want to improve at SS, but that would actually involve improving.

 

How has Matsui done outside of Coors?

[inari]

Is Matsui even that much of an improvement over Theriot? I want to improve at SS, but that would actually involve improving.

 

How has Matsui done outside of Coors?

 

Not that good. Not that he did all that well in Coors either.

[jersey cubs fan]

 

95% is 154 games. Most full time starters get between 150 and 160 starts a season. Bumping the PT down for each player to 90% (145 games)

 

 

The Cubs had 1 guy play 150 games in 2007 and just 3 with as many as 140. They had 5 over 140 in 2006, 3 in 2005, 4 in 2004. There were only 74 players in all of baseball to play in 150 games last year, 2.5 per team. And of course, games played isn't the same as playing time, since guys can enter a game as a pinch hitter/late inning defensive replacement, or leave the game early for a variety of reasons.

 

The average NL team got 720 PA out of its 4 spot. 90% of that is 648. And only 30 NL players had that many PA, 1.9 per team. In other words, the vast majority don't get 90% of their team's playing time.

[jersey cubs fan]

Is Matsui even that much of an improvement over Theriot? I want to improve at SS, but that would actually involve improving.

 

How has Matsui done outside of Coors?

 

Not that good. Not that he did all that well in Coors either.

 

Not that much of an improvement over Theriot, although he does hit considerably better against RHP, which could allow a platoon of Theriot/Matsui to be much better than strictly Theriot.

[Guest]

Some guy on another board said he heard on 670 The Score today that the Cubs were close to signing Fukudome..

 

Has he even become a FA yet? I haven't heard if he's filed.

 

It would be nice if it were true

 

I don't think he's declared yet. Kuroda has.