Is anyone else worried we might be toast?

[CubColtPacer]

My numbers show 22 ER's in 5 games @Wrigley field on the year with great offensive lines vs Phi and Cin and mediocre numbers against other teams on that list.

 

They seem to be the anti Brewers. The Brewers stats aren't too terrible in road games @hitters parks but they are horrible @pitcher parks.

 

Thanks for the correction. I forgot about the 2 games at the very beginning of the year in Wrigley.

 

The Padres were kind of strange in hitters parks. They tended to have lots of low scoring games with a few double digit numbers added in that skewed the numbers for both their hitting and their pitching.

[Soul]

Will we see Peavy though, how you can say that the last game of the season is going to matter for them. Maybe they are 2 games up in the wild card and 2 back in the division. Heck maybe they have a 2 game lead in the division by then. Its still 11 games away.

 

There is also a decent chance that the Brewers are up or down by 2 games at that point and the game still won't matter.

 

Yeah, there's no telling where the standings will be by that series. There's no way of being sure the games will matter. Odds are the last game won't matter for at least one of MIL or SD, if not both. And it's possible the last two will be meaningless as well. Things are tight for everybody right now, but that can all go out the windown in 2 days.

 

Which is also why the whole loss column thing doesn't matter now, HAHAH!

[SouthSideRyan]

i guess it didnt occur to you that in order to get ahead of us the Brewers would have to win two games, which the odds of happening are <.52*.52 which is about 25%.

 

Ive never understood looking at the L column. It's stupid.

 

It's small but the Brewers have a better chance of gaining ground on us in those 2 games than they do losing ground. It's not statistically insignificant.

 

okay there's the same chance that the cubs gain ground on the brewers that they gain ground on us.

 

Not if you're using the Brew's winning % as their likelihood of winning. Though, I do agree with you, it's probably just as likely they lose 2 as win 2(probably a little more likely) since the 2 "extra" games are against Atlanta and San Diego.

[SouthSideRyan]

I'm not all that worried about SD since they don't play that well in hitters parks and the Brewers get them at home and there is still time for them to become meaningless games.

 

 

Well, you should be, as the Padres are much much better than the Brewers.

 

Not on the road vs the Brewers at home they aren't

 

Padres ERA in hitters parks this season...

 

4.12 @Chi

4.50 @Cin

4.86 @Col

5.82 @Hou

6.92 @Phi

5.47 @Ari

 

They are a team built around defense and pitchers who will thrive in big parks. Their team ERA at home is 2.99, its 4.35 on the road and its over 5.00 in hitters parks on the year, they simply are not the same team in that situation.

 

How do their hitters do in these parks?

 

Seems pretty empty to tell me their pitchers do worse in hitters parks, and leave it at that.

[GhostRunner]

This thread is really making me freak out.

 

I can't read all this without my heart racing and I start getting simultaneously excited and worried and nervous and twitchy and then self-criticizing when I realize that I have no control over anything whatsoever and should just relax a bit and enjoy the ride.

 

Then I start trying to come up with ways to give the Cubs an edge and occasionally wonder weird things like if Soto is capable of carrying the team on his back for a week. Sometimes during close games I do strange, new-agey things like visualizing positive white energy around the players and try to will them to do good things on the field.

 

No, I'm not a whack-job. I just want them to win, dammit!

[Ender]

How do their hitters do in these parks?

 

.738 OPS @Chi

1.015 @Cin

.749 @Col

.752 @Hou

1.052 @Phi

.809 @Ari

 

They feasted on Phi and Cin pitching which is no surprise. They were pretty mediocre against Chi, Col and Hou and were solid against Ari.

 

I'd say the pitching splits are much larger than the hitting ones overall.

[BigbadB]

Will we see Peavy though, how you can say that the last game of the season is going to matter for them. Maybe they are 2 games up in the wild card and 2 back in the division. Heck maybe they have a 2 game lead in the division by then. Its still 11 games away.

 

There is also a decent chance that the Brewers are up or down by 2 games at that point and the game still won't matter.

 

Both divisions have been tight for at least the last month. While it's possible that someone will run away with their division within these last 10 days, it's just as possible it will all come down to the last games.

[Ender]

Let me add I'm scared of tonights game @Hou.

 

Bush has stunk on the road this season and it has been 3 years, 2 months, 21 days since the Brewers swept a team on the road!

[Fro]

officially not toast, back to controlling our own destiny.

[NCCubFan]

Let me add I'm scared of tonights game @Hou.

Good call. :D

[nilodnayr]

BP has us at a 55.44309% chance of making the playoffs. Unfortunately, yesterday was a rough day... we lost 15.97812%.

 

And we're back up to 71.79337%.

[Soul]

BP has us at a 55.44309% chance of making the playoffs. Unfortunately, yesterday was a rough day... we lost 15.97812%.

 

And we're back up to 71.79337%.

 

Better than a roller coaster ride @ Great America.

[inari]

BP has us at a 55.44309% chance of making the playoffs. Unfortunately, yesterday was a rough day... we lost 15.97812%.

 

And we're back up to 71.79337%.

 

Anyone able to calculate what percentage 1.5 would put us at?

[C.C.]

Man, these last 9 games are going to kill me!

[CUBZ99]

This season has been a crazy one. So many ups and downs, and in 24 hours the outlook went from "being toast" to optomistic again.

 

Too bad that even if the Cubs clinch a playoff spot, they won't be able to celebrate at Wrigley.

[wvcbxl]

Anyone able to calculate what percentage 1.5 would put us at?

 

On a Monte-Carlo simulation? Hardly.

[badger1679666666]

This season has been a crazy one. So many ups and downs, and in 24 hours the outlook went from "being toast" to optomistic again.

 

Too bad that even if the Cubs clinch a playoff spot, they won't be able to celebrate at Wrigley.

 

It'd almost be more fun to tie the Brewers and win the playoff at Wrigley. I don't think my heart could take a playoff vs. the Brewers though.

[UMFan83]

I think I read somewhere that if the Brewers lose today, the percentage goes up to around 82%

[BigSlick]

I think I read somewhere that if the Brewers lose today, the percentage goes up to around 82%

 

They'd be 2 back in the loss column, and pretty well boned considering they have no off days and how strong their schedule is.

 

I just don't see them losing to that completely destroyed Cardinals lineup though. :cry:

[C.C.]

I think I read somewhere that if the Brewers lose today, the percentage goes up to around 82%

 

They'd be 2 back in the loss column, and pretty well boned considering they have no off days and how strong their schedule is.

 

I just don't see them losing to that completely destroyed Cardinals lineup though. :cry:

 

2 back? You mean 1 back.

[SouthSideRyan]

I think I read somewhere that if the Brewers lose today, the percentage goes up to around 82%

 

They'd be 2 back in the loss column, and pretty well boned considering they have no off days and how strong their schedule is.

 

I just don't see them losing to that completely destroyed Cardinals lineup though. :cry:

 

They'd be 1 back in the loss column. They're tied in it now.