Is anyone else worried we might be toast?

[nilodnayr]

BP has us at a 55.44309% chance of making the playoffs. Unfortunately, yesterday was a rough day... we lost 15.97812%.

 

Where is that link? thanks.

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/ps_odds.php

[inari]

Imagine what our odds would be if we hadn't been swept by Houston and Florida. If we don't make the playoffs, those two series are the reason.

[daske17]

While I'm always worried, I want to send out a vote of thanks to the Mets for giving the Braves something to fight for. While they would need to jumpfrog the Phillies for the division, if the Mets continue their slide, the Braves will see their series with the Brewers as extra-meaningful.

 

All that said, we just need to win games. Worrying about other teams doesn't help what the team needs to do on the field.

[nilodnayr]

Imagine what our odds would be if we hadn't been swept by Houston and Florida. If we don't make the playoffs, those two series are the reason.

 

If we don't make the playoffs it will most likely be bay a game or two, meaning, that every game we didn't win will be the reason.

[kente777]

While I'm always worried, I want to send out a vote of thanks to the Mets for giving the Braves something to fight for. While they would need to jumpfrog the Phillies for the division, if the Mets continue their slide, the Braves will see their series with the Brewers as extra-meaningful.

 

All that said, we just need to win games. Worrying about other teams doesn't help what the team needs to do on the field.

 

I don't follow the Braves that close, but a guy at work here is fanatical about them and he says until they are mathematically eliminated, Bobby Cox will pull out all stops to win.

 

:)

[C.C.]

While I'm always worried, I want to send out a vote of thanks to the Mets for giving the Braves something to fight for. While they would need to jumpfrog the Phillies for the division, if the Mets continue their slide, the Braves will see their series with the Brewers as extra-meaningful.

 

All that said, we just need to win games. Worrying about other teams doesn't help what the team needs to do on the field.

 

I don't follow the Braves that close, but a guy at work here is fanatical about them and he says until they are mathematically eliminated, Bobby Cox will pull out all stops to win.

 

:)

 

What manager doesn't?

[genbar]

Don't worry yet...

 

In fact, if I'm the Brewers I'm worried. Padres and Braves aren't going to lay down. Both are playing for something. They have 8 games with them.

 

I agree. 8 games against two very tough teams. I feel pretty good about our chances.

 

Ditto. I feel like ATL and SD will get the best of them.

[Ender]

I'm not all that worried about SD since they don't play that well in hitters parks and the Brewers get them at home and there is still time for them to become meaningless games.

 

The @atl series scares the crap out of me as a Brewer fan. If we come out of that stretch with a 0.5 game lead or deficit on the Cubs then I'd start to get really worried if I were you.

 

Truth is over a dozen games any team can be great or bad so both sides should be worried the rest of the season. All it takes is a mini slump and that team is done.

Edited September 19, 2007 by Ender

[chuckywang]

i've never got the whole loss column thing.

 

It's important because it determines who controls their own destiny.

[JeffH]

Sorry if I come off like a Negative Nancy, Debbie Downer, etc.

But I am really concerned at this point. The Brewers are already ahead of the Cubs in the loss column and close the season at home, where they have been one of the best teams in baseball. The Cubs close against Cincy, who always plays them tough. I really see the Brewers as being the favorites right now.

 

The Cubs are the number one cause of feline AIDS.

[nilodnayr]

Sorry if I come off like a Negative Nancy, Debbie Downer, etc.

But I am really concerned at this point. The Brewers are already ahead of the Cubs in the loss column and close the season at home, where they have been one of the best teams in baseball. The Cubs close against Cincy, who always plays them tough. I really see the Brewers as being the favorites right now.

 

The Cubs are the number one cause of feline AIDS.

 

They are also the #1 cause of me drinking 15 Labatts and puking on my Practice Leader (ahh memories, or lack thereof, of the 2004 playoff, or lackthereof, run)

[imb]

We're Cub fans, when does the worrying stop?

 

We worry that we might miss the playoffs, then we make it in and we worry that we'll lose in the playoffs. Then it's the offseason and we worry that Hendry will sign a 31-year old to a $136 million dollar contract and then spring training starts and we worry that Mark Prior will get hurt and then the season starts and we worry that we're going to suck and then it's time for the ammy draft and we worry that we'll draft a toolsy outfielder that can't take a walk and then the season winds down and we worry again whether or not we'll make it to the playoffs.

[Mephistopheles]

i guess it didnt occur to you that in order to get ahead of us the Brewers would have to win two games, which the odds of happening are <.52*.52 which is about 25%.

 

Ive never understood looking at the L column. It's stupid.

 

It's small but the Brewers have a better chance of gaining ground on us in those 2 games than they do losing ground. It's not statistically insignificant.

 

okay there's the same chance that the cubs gain ground on the brewers that they gain ground on us.

[Soul]

I'm not all that worried about SD since they don't play that well in hitters parks and the Brewers get them at home and there is still time for them to become meaningless games.

 

The @atl series scares the crap out of me as a Brewer fan. If we come out of that stretch with a 0.5 game lead or deficit on the Cubs then I'd start to get really worried if I were you.

 

Truth is over a dozen games any team can be great or bad so both sides should be worried the rest of the season. All it takes is a mini slump and that team is done.

 

That's....what I was saying just a couple days ago.

[inari]

I'm not all that worried about SD since they don't play that well in hitters parks and the Brewers get them at home and there is still time for them to become meaningless games.

 

 

Well, you should be, as the Padres are much much better than the Brewers.

[Soul]

What me worry?

 

http://www.notmilk.com/graphics/alfrede.jpg

[Ender]

I'm not all that worried about SD since they don't play that well in hitters parks and the Brewers get them at home and there is still time for them to become meaningless games.

 

 

Well, you should be, as the Padres are much much better than the Brewers.

 

Not on the road vs the Brewers at home they aren't

 

Padres ERA in hitters parks this season...

 

4.12 @Chi

4.50 @Cin

4.86 @Col

5.82 @Hou

6.92 @Phi

5.47 @Ari

 

They are a team built around defense and pitchers who will thrive in big parks. Their team ERA at home is 2.99, its 4.35 on the road and its over 5.00 in hitters parks on the year, they simply are not the same team in that situation.

 

If the games were @SD I'd assume we lose 3 out of 4, @Mil is another story and as I said there is still a decent chance the last game or two aren't meaningful so I can't be too worried about that series just yet. The Atlanta series could be a nightmare though.

[BigbadB]

Why would the Padres games possibly not matter? They are a game out of first and ahead in the wild card race. Their games will matter the rest of the way.

 

And you will be seeing Chris Young and Jake Peavy in that series.

[Ender]

Will we see Peavy though, how you can say that the last game of the season is going to matter for them. Maybe they are 2 games up in the wild card and 2 back in the division. Heck maybe they have a 2 game lead in the division by then. Its still 11 games away.

 

There is also a decent chance that the Brewers are up or down by 2 games at that point and the game still won't matter.

[davearm]

i've never got the whole loss column thing.

 

It's important because it determines who controls their own destiny.

Exactly.

 

If you trail in the loss column, you can't make the playoffs without outside help, no matter what you do.

 

We can debate whether or not this is important in baseball, since most everyone assumes the Brewers will lose at least a few more times, but it's pretty apparent why folks talk about it.

[jersey cubs fan]

Will we see Peavy though, how you can say that the last game of the season is going to matter for them. Maybe they are 2 games up in the wild card and 2 back in the division. Heck maybe they have a 2 game lead in the division by then. Its still 11 games away.

 

There is also a decent chance that the Brewers are up or down by 2 games at that point and the game still won't matter.

 

Yeah, there's no telling where the standings will be by that series. There's no way of being sure the games will matter. Odds are the last game won't matter for at least one of MIL or SD, if not both. And it's possible the last two will be meaningless as well. Things are tight for everybody right now, but that can all go out the windown in 2 days.

[Peoriaman]

no.

[Peoriaman]

hell, some people here are worried we WILL make the play-offs! There is a 14 page thread on that.

 

Let's just play the games and the better team will win.

Edited September 19, 2007 by Peoriaman

[CubColtPacer]

I'm not all that worried about SD since they don't play that well in hitters parks and the Brewers get them at home and there is still time for them to become meaningless games.

 

 

Well, you should be, as the Padres are much much better than the Brewers.

 

Not on the road vs the Brewers at home they aren't

 

Padres ERA in hitters parks this season...

 

4.12 @Chi

4.50 @Cin

4.86 @Col

5.82 @Hou

6.92 @Phi

5.47 @Ari

 

They are a team built around defense and pitchers who will thrive in big parks. Their team ERA at home is 2.99, its 4.35 on the road and its over 5.00 in hitters parks on the year, they simply are not the same team in that situation.

 

If the games were @SD I'd assume we lose 3 out of 4, @Mil is another story and as I said there is still a decent chance the last game or two aren't meaningful so I can't be too worried about that series just yet. The Atlanta series could be a nightmare tough.

 

First off, who is Chi? It can't be the Cubs, because the Padres only allowed 7 runs in 3 games to the Cubs.

 

If you're putting their ERA in hitters parks, let's look at their runs per game in the same parks:

 

Cin: 8.33 R/G

Col: 4.55 R/G

Hou: 7.25 R/G

Phi: 6.67 R/G

Ari: 4.67 R/G

 

They may pitch worse in hitter parks, but they also hit a lot better. Milwaukee will still have the slight advantage in that series because they are so good at home.

[Ender]

My numbers show 22 ER's in 5 games @Wrigley field on the year with great offensive lines vs Phi and Cin and mediocre numbers against other teams on that list.

 

They seem to be the anti Brewers. The Brewers stats aren't too terrible in road games @hitters parks but they are horrible @pitcher parks.