Tejada available this offseason?

[TheDude]

I wanted and advocated Tejada each of the last three years around here. Next year is really no different. I don't know if Baltimore is really in position to ask for the moon anymore. He's another year older and another year off the contract, although 2 years remain.

 

With Tejada, Lee, Ramirez, and DeRosa, the Cubs would be looking at 90-100 HR and 220+ XBH infield. That is some kind of power on the infield.

[Mephistopheles]

 

ton of money is not 13 mil these days. His EqA this season is .294 after three straight seasons of .300. I can't even begin to describe the offensive contributions of a .300 EqA SS. To put it into comparison, he's Derrek Lee playing SS.

 

Question. What's the difference between adjusted EqA for the season and adjusted EqA for all time? Because for all-time shows Tejada at .294, while the season shows .278. What makes choosing 1 better than the other?

 

 

in the NL, adjusted EqA =~ all-time EqA.

 

in the AL, adjusted EqA < all time EqA.

 

When you do that calculations for the league average raw eqa you use the league average totals overall. Pitchers bring down the NL totals. Using EqA1 to compare players between the NL and AL is stupid

[CuseCubFan69]

I wanted and advocated Tejada each of the last three years around here. Next year is really no different. I don't know if Baltimore is really in position to ask for the moon anymore. He's another year older and another year off the contract, although 2 years remain.

 

With Tejada, Lee, Ramirez, and DeRosa, the Cubs would be looking at 90-100 HR and 220+ XBH infield. That is some kind of power on the infield.

 

I think it's going to depend on who needs a SS or an upgrade like the Cubs to help cover weaknesses in other areas. If there is little or no interest in Tejada then the Cubs have a pretty good chance if they choose to go this route and imo it might help or hurt them having a lot of ex Cub people in the O's organization. If they love a certain amount of Cub players may really help. I really think the O's will want a potential 1 or 2 pitcher that is ready to pitch now and a prospect ready now and a very good prospect and depending again, on the competition they may get better or worse for that. It also may depend on what direction the O's are going to go in 2008. Do they have a SS ready to fill in or will they need a replacement? Do they want a young guy full of potential in a trade for Tejada and if the do the Cubs are going to be out of luck unless they can get a third team involved or the O's are interested in Theriot to be included in a package.

[biittner77]

The Orioles braintrust is formerly the Cubs braintrust. They are familiar with what the Cubs have and probably like some players that we here don't. How about this:

 

Murton, Marshall, Theriot and Dopirak for Tejada and cash.

 

If the Cubs make the playoffs and Theriot does well can/ will the Cubs trade him?

[nilodnayr]

I very much have to side with Meph on this one. I'd absolutely trade Marmol, definitely trade Pie, definitely trade Marshall, and would consider Hill. Marmos is a reliever, hes going to pitch 70 innings for us. No matter how great he is, its not going to make as much of a difference as a position player. Pie has major flaws. He has big upside, but who knows how much hes going to realize. Marshall is pitchig well, but has big injury history (which the O's are very careful about) and isn't that great. Trading Hill would all depend on who we would have to replace him.

 

Tejada's 13M is ridiculously undermarket. He plays average D and is going to put up an 800 OPS in the AL East. His peripherals are all fairlyc consistant with former years. One year of dropping from 880 to 810 OPS is not necessarily a trend MORP has his 08-09 value at a smidge under $50M.

 

I had never heard of this Luis Hernandez before the O's called him up...took a look at his bbcube page and man has he been horrible. To his credit, he has been young for his level. I can't imagine them handing him the starting job for 08. I'd be more than happy to give them Theriot :D

 

As for Renteria, hes Tejada-lite. In production, in salary, and in player cost. Plus, they have Escobar to take over for him, so hes in a much more expendable situation. I'd have to imagine they'd be very happy taking Marshall for him. I'd do it.

Edited September 19, 2007 by nilodnayr

[soccer10k]

Tejada's 13M is ridiculously undermarket. He plays average D and is going to put up an 800 OPS in the NL East. His peripherals are all fairlyc consistant with former years. One year of dropping from 880 to 810 OPS is not necessarily a trend MORP has his 08-09 value at a smidge under $50M.

 

So he's been traded already then? :wink:

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Tejada's 13M is ridiculously undermarket. He plays average D and is going to put up an 800 OPS in the NL East. His peripherals are all fairlyc consistant with former years. One year of dropping from 880 to 810 OPS is not necessarily a trend MORP has his 08-09 value at a smidge under $50M.

 

Tejada's IsoP dropping 4 years in a row is definitely a trend.

[nilodnayr]

Tejada's 13M is ridiculously undermarket. He plays average D and is going to put up an 800 OPS in the NL East. His peripherals are all fairlyc consistant with former years. One year of dropping from 880 to 810 OPS is not necessarily a trend MORP has his 08-09 value at a smidge under $50M.

 

Tejada's IsoP dropping 4 years in a row is definitely a trend.

 

First of all its 3 years (04 was his career high in IsoP). Second of all, how significant are those drops? I looked at it two ways. One was simply a year over year % change in IsoP. This makes 05-06 look like a big decline with a 20% drop. 04-05 was pretty insignificant with a 6% drop, 06-07 slightly more significant with a 10% drop.

 

Secondly, I normalized for 650 ABs (since he was injured for some of this year and its in progress) and looked at it from a total bases drop perspective. Because his average was so high in 06, the 05-06 drop in Normalized TBs was only 3%, he also only had a 3% drop from 04-05. However, from 06-07, his normalized TBs dropped 10%. The bad news, is you can't use the wrist injury as an excuse, because his IsoP before the injury was a paltry 117. The good news though, is that hes done much better in the second half with a 207 post ASB IsoP.

 

While I completely agree hes in the regression stage of his career, what I'm saying is that I don't expect his OPS to drop 70 points a year from here on out. I still think he'll be an extremely above average offensive shortstop for the next 2 years and would be worth trying to acquire given his undermarket salary.

[brinoch]

Renteria might also be available, depending on how comfortable the Braves are with Escobar taking over. I think it's likely that they'll move some salary again this winter, and Renteria -- along with Jones -- are the two easy targets.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

The Baltimore Sun has an article up that continues to suggest the Orioles will shop Tejeda and says that even if he's back in 2008, he likely won't be at shortstop.

 

Link.

 

Though no Orioles executive will say it publicly, there's plenty of sentiment in the front office that if Tejada returns, it should be at another position. Tejada has struggled defensively this season at the only position he has ever played, making 15 errors and compiling a .969 fielding percentage, which would be his worst since he became an everyday player for the Oakland Athletics in 1998.

 

"He doesn't move real well," said Orioles third base and infield coach Juan Samuel. "I don't know how we can [fix] it. He's not overweight. People say that he's in better shape this year than he was last year. I don't know if he's tired, or if all those games in a row [1,152 before a June injury] are catching up to him. I can't put my finger on it. He just really hasn't been consistent."

 

Here is a little more...

 

Several executives from other teams said the Orioles would have traded Tejada before the deadline in July, but his long stint on the disabled list made that virtually impossible. As it is, his trade value, thanks to declining power numbers and defensive questions, is down from last year.

 

Two baseball executives said the Orioles could probably land one or two high-ceiling prospects. However, they doubted that Tejada could fetch a top-of-the-rotation pitcher or a proven young bat.

[CubinNY]

The Baltimore Sun has an article up that continues to suggest the Orioles will shop Tejeda and says that even if he's back in 2008, he likely won't be at shortstop.

 

Link.

 

Though no Orioles executive will say it publicly, there's plenty of sentiment in the front office that if Tejada returns, it should be at another position. Tejada has struggled defensively this season at the only position he has ever played, making 15 errors and compiling a .969 fielding percentage, which would be his worst since he became an everyday player for the Oakland Athletics in 1998.

 

"He doesn't move real well," said Orioles third base and infield coach Juan Samuel. "I don't know how we can [fix] it. He's not overweight. People say that he's in better shape this year than he was last year. I don't know if he's tired, or if all those games in a row [1,152 before a June injury] are catching up to him. I can't put my finger on it. He just really hasn't been consistent."

 

Here is a little more...

 

Several executives from other teams said the Orioles would have traded Tejada before the deadline in July, but his long stint on the disabled list made that virtually impossible. As it is, his trade value, thanks to declining power numbers and defensive questions, is down from last year.

Danger Will Robinson, Danger!

 

That said, two years is a reasonable amount of time for his contract.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Are Harvey and Dopirak high-ceiling prospects?

[CuseCubFan69]

Are Harvey and Dopirak high-ceiling prospects?

 

How high are your ceilings?

[SouthSideRyan]

MacPhail continuing his devaluing players before he trades them techniques.

 

I hope him and Stockstill were big fans of Marshall.

[Derwood]

Are Harvey and Dopirak high-ceiling prospects?

 

How high are your ceilings?

 

http://www.follow-me-now.de/assets/images/Being_John_Malkovich-1.jpg

[BigbadB]

While I enjoy a great defensive play at SS, I don't put all that much value on a guy who can get to a ball better than another guy. For example, Ozzie Smith could get to balls that Theriot could only dream of getting to.

 

The Cubs have been winning with a mediocre fielding/non bat at SS all year long. Whether that be Izturis, Theriot or Cedeno playing the position.

 

Offense is the big problem with this team. Geovany Soto addresses some of that offensive problem by handing him the job behind the plate. Not only does Soto provide adequate to above average offense behind the dish, he is tons better defensively than any of the other options.

 

If Tejada can't play SS anymore, I'd be fine with him at 2nd and slide DeRosa back over to SS. If Mark Loretta can still play SS, so can DeRosa, and probably better.

 

Realistically, Tejada and Renteria are probably the only 2 upgrades that can be found at the SS position this offseason over someone like Theriot. Most other teams will be hanging on to what they have.

 

What it will cost to get either of those two guys is what this thread really comes down to. Baltimore does know our system. The two guys that I would label as untouchable from our prospect/youth list are Rich Hill and Geovany Soto. After that, I'd certainly be willing to work deals to get either Tejada or Renteria.

 

Heck, I'd trade Soriano to Baltimore for Tejada if they'd be interested in him.

 

I think Theriot is fine if there isn't a significant upgrade at the position. Though, I do believe Cedeno would put up better offense if he was just left alone to play the position everyday.

 

What I don't want to see is the Cubs just stand pat this offseason like St. Louis did last year. What is nice is the Cubs do have quality, cheap talent to use as filler or trade bait. The upgrade makes the most sense at SS.

 

I'm curious how many other teams will be interested in an upgrade at SS this offseason.

[Backtobanks]

While I enjoy a great defensive play at SS, I don't put all that much value on a guy who can get to a ball better than another guy. For example, Ozzie Smith could get to balls that Theriot could only dream of getting to.

 

The Cubs have been winning with a mediocre fielding/non bat at SS all year long. Whether that be Izturis, Theriot or Cedeno playing the position.

 

Offense is the big problem with this team. Geovany Soto addresses some of that offensive problem by handing him the job behind the plate. Not only does Soto provide adequate to above average offense behind the dish, he is tons better defensively than any of the other options.

 

If Tejada can't play SS anymore, I'd be fine with him at 2nd and slide DeRosa back over to SS. If Mark Loretta can still play SS, so can DeRosa, and probably better.

 

Realistically, Tejada and Renteria are probably the only 2 upgrades that can be found at the SS position this offseason over someone like Theriot. Most other teams will be hanging on to what they have.

 

What it will cost to get either of those two guys is what this thread really comes down to. Baltimore does know our system. The two guys that I would label as untouchable from our prospect/youth list are Rich Hill and Geovany Soto. After that, I'd certainly be willing to work deals to get either Tejada or Renteria.

 

Heck, I'd trade Soriano to Baltimore for Tejada if they'd be interested in him.

I think Theriot is fine if there isn't a significant upgrade at the position. Though, I do believe Cedeno would put up better offense if he was just left alone to play the position everyday.

What I don't want to see is the Cubs just stand pat this offseason like St. Louis did last year. What is nice is the Cubs do have quality, cheap talent to use as filler or trade bait. The upgrade makes the most sense at SS.

 

I'm curious how many other teams will be interested in an upgrade at SS this offseason.

 

I don't understand your trade of Soriano for Tejada. The only thing that does is save some money while downgrading the offense. As for Cedeno, I can't help but think that he has about run out of chances with the Cubs. He looks to be the perfect example of a AAAA player. If the Cubs can make a trade for Tejada or Renteria during the off season, I would imagine Cedeno would be part of the package.

[Warpticon]

Tejada's 13M is ridiculously undermarket. He plays average D and is going to put up an 800 OPS in the NL East. His peripherals are all fairlyc consistant with former years. One year of dropping from 880 to 810 OPS is not necessarily a trend MORP has his 08-09 value at a smidge under $50M.

 

Tejada's IsoP dropping 4 years in a row is definitely a trend.

 

First of all its 3 years (04 was his career high in IsoP). Second of all, how significant are those drops? I looked at it two ways. One was simply a year over year % change in IsoP. This makes 05-06 look like a big decline with a 20% drop. 04-05 was pretty insignificant with a 6% drop, 06-07 slightly more significant with a 10% drop.

 

Secondly, I normalized for 650 ABs (since he was injured for some of this year and its in progress) and looked at it from a total bases drop perspective. Because his average was so high in 06, the 05-06 drop in Normalized TBs was only 3%, he also only had a 3% drop from 04-05. However, from 06-07, his normalized TBs dropped 10%. The bad news, is you can't use the wrist injury as an excuse, because his IsoP before the injury was a paltry 117. The good news though, is that hes done much better in the second half with a 207 post ASB IsoP.

 

While I completely agree hes in the regression stage of his career, what I'm saying is that I don't expect his OPS to drop 70 points a year from here on out. I still think he'll be an extremely above average offensive shortstop for the next 2 years and would be worth trying to acquire given his undermarket salary.

 

Is a potentially below average defensive shortstop worth 13 million and a starting pitcher or potential starting center fielder if he drops 30 points in OPS, then? He doesn't have to drop 70 points in 2008 to be a disappointment relative to his cost when you're looking at a .750 shorttstop in 2009.

 

A year ago I'd have given up all of the mentioned players for him easily. i'm not entirely comfortable with Tejada at the moment.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

What I'm hoping happens is that Baltimore becomes so convinced they don't want Tejeda at SS, they a move has to happen.

 

My guess, the Cubs competition for his services will primarily be the White Sox and Astros.

 

Depending on what those two teams are offering, the Cubs might get him for a package less than what many think.

 

I'd offer a package of Marshall + Ohman + Patterson and see what the Orioles think. Initially, it's probably not enough. To sweeten the deal, Cedeno could also be included.

 

Another SS possibility could be Michael Young. While he just signed an extension, there's lots of rumblings out of Arlington that he's very unhappy due to the trade of Teixeira and does not want to wait through a rebuilding period.

 

If he were placed on the market, the Rangers would have interest in Marshall or Pie for sure.

[Guest]

MacPhail continuing his devaluing players before he trades them techniques.

 

I hope him and Stockstill were big fans of Marshall.

 

Stockstill drafted Marshall so I have to think so.

[UK1679666180]

MacPhail continuing his devaluing players before he trades them techniques.

 

I hope him and Stockstill were big fans of Marshall.

 

Stockstill drafted Marshall so I have to think so.

 

Borderline chance that he seen him. He was not a high draft pick (6th I believe), so Swoope obviously seen him numerous times and prob. the east coast crosschecker once or twice, but it's up in the air as far as Stockstill.

[brinoch]

Carlos Guillen is unhappy that Tigers manager Jim Leyland is moving him from shortstop to first base. He didn't expect to move this early in a contract that runs through 2011. The Tigers probably wouldn't make Guillen available to the White Sox, who should make shortstop a priority, but would the Brewers consider trading Bill Hall? The guy who hit .270 with 35 homers as Milwaukee's regular shortstop a year ago seems expendable because of J.J. Hardy and Corey Hart, and the Brewers will look for pitching in the off-season.

 

… Trading Hall could make it easier for the Brewers to re-sign closer Francisco Cordero, which is general manager Doug Melvin's top priority. … The Braves might look to move shortstop Edgar Renteria to allow Yunel Escobar to play his natural position.

 

Looks like there a chance that Guillen might be available and another indication that Renteria could be moved.

 

My guess is that the Braves will let Jones go, trade Renteria and sign Teixeira to a long-term deal. Escobar will take over at SS, and perhaps Willie Harris will play CF. But, frankly, he's nothing particularly special. I think the Cubs could probably acquire Renteria for Pie or pitching.

[Guest]

Ooo, I'd love Guillen.

[rawaction]

Carlos Guillen is unhappy that Tigers manager Jim Leyland is moving him from shortstop to first base. He didn't expect to move this early in a contract that runs through 2011. The Tigers probably wouldn't make Guillen available to the White Sox, who should make shortstop a priority, but would the Brewers consider trading Bill Hall? The guy who hit .270 with 35 homers as Milwaukee's regular shortstop a year ago seems expendable because of J.J. Hardy and Corey Hart, and the Brewers will look for pitching in the off-season.

 

… Trading Hall could make it easier for the Brewers to re-sign closer Francisco Cordero, which is general manager Doug Melvin's top priority. … The Braves might look to move shortstop Edgar Renteria to allow Yunel Escobar to play his natural position.

 

Looks like there a chance that Guillen might be available and another indication that Renteria could be moved.

 

My guess is that the Braves will let Jones go, trade Renteria and sign Teixeira to a long-term deal. Escobar will take over at SS, and perhaps Willie Harris will play CF. But, frankly, he's nothing particularly special. I think the Cubs could probably acquire Renteria for Pie or pitching.

 

I think RF is a bigger hole than SS. Theriot isn't great by any means, but I think he does enough well to be hidden in the 8th hole all of next year. I'd trade for Renteria, but wouldn't give up Pie for him. I'd probably look to trade Marshall and Atkins for him.

 

My #1 trade target would be Brad Hawpe. Not sure if he would be available, but they have a ton of offense, and more on the horizon (Koshansky, Baker, Stewart) and could use some pitching and a CF. I would offer Pie, Hart, and maybe even Veal for Hawpe.

[BigbadB]

Aren't they kind of high on Spilbourghs, also? Or has he cooled off?