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Cubs and Big Z Avoid Arbitration, Agree to 1/$12.4 M

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fromthestretch First Round Pick

fromthestretch

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
I want to stress again that the Zito comparison was metaphorical. I used Zito because he was the #1 FA pitcher on the market this winter, and my point was that if your ace is demanding the price tag of the #1 FA pitcher, you don't lose that much by letting him walk because you can go out and spend roughly the same amount and sign the #1 FA pitcher on the market the next year. Yes, sometimes there are really lean FA years but there are also really full FA years too so I think it evens out. I'm also not suggesting that you should in fact let him walk, just saying that knowing that you can gives you the position of strength.

 

That makes no sense. You can't "just go out and sign the #1 FA pitcher on the market next year".

 

You are devaluing top notch pitchers by referring them as commodities.

 

Of course you can. Why wouldn't you be able to? And it is not at all devaluing something by calling it a commodity. A Ferrari is a commodity, and it's pretty valuable. It just means that it is replaceable, and $17 million pitchers are.

 

The pitcher might not want to sign with your team for personal reasons. Also, other teams will be competing with you to sign him. They may offer more money, a no-trade clause, etc. It's not like they can just assume that they'll be able to land the best, or even one of the top 2-3 pitchers on the market next offseason.

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JonnyRed First Round Pick

JonnyRed

Verified Member
Posted
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I'm more and more afraid every day that Hendry will find a way to royally screw this up.

 

Have faith....Hendry has a pretty good track record of getting deals done with his key players. He signed both D-Lee and A-Ram to good deals and landed Soriano as well.

BigbadB First Round Pick

BigbadB

Community Moderator
Posted
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What kind of negative things can be said of Carlos? The reason Carlos isn't already at least a two time 20 game winner is because of the crappy offenses Hendry put together. Hendry and Baker have abused Carlos to the point his arm is about to fall off.

 

Zambrano might have gone high with his asking price, but the Cubs lowballed him too. Zambrano is more than a million dollars better than Ted Lilly.

 

Z IMO still has to prove that he's one of the top 5 pitchers in the game before I pay him like one. We all know what happens when he lets his emotions get the better of him.

 

We don't know what the market is for the top 5 pitchers in the game. None of them were free agents this offseason. Zito surely isn't one of them. And if Zito will make 18m, then Zambrano is worth at least that.

 

Zito's ERA+ the last three years is 105, 116 and 116

Zambrano's ERA+ the last three years is 165, 131 and 136

back2backjax Draft Eligible

back2backjax

Verified Member
Posted
Posted
ESPN 1000 reporting they are only 200K apart and the hearing may not have started yet.

 

12.3 and 12.5

 

$200K...that's it? C'mon H, give the guy $200K more just to end this saga. So help me, if we pay $17M per year for Lilly/Marquis and set off a crapstorm of bad feelings with Z over $200K, I will....well, I'll do nothing. But it will upset me.

apete6 ACL Cubs

apete6

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
ESPN 1000 reporting they are only 200K apart and the hearing may not have started yet.

 

12.3 and 12.5

 

Seriously, give it up Hendry. 200K is less than the beer revenue for 1 game. Freaking don't piss off Z. Aaarrrrgggggghhhh.

Bull ACL Cubs

Bull

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Again, that's from ESPN 1000 reporting that Levine is reporting the 200K difference. Third hand at best.
CubColtPacer South Bend Cubs

CubColtPacer

Community Moderator
Posted
Posted
Yeah, I'll agree that they better not go to the hearing over a 200K difference when the difference in arbitration figures is 4.5 million-it's time to get this done before it goes to arbitration.
CubColtPacer South Bend Cubs

CubColtPacer

Community Moderator
Posted
Posted
Again, that's from ESPN 1000 reporting that Levine is reporting the 200K difference. Third hand at best.

 

That's true-Levine hasn't exactly been the best source, and has been really bad this offseason.

jdelaney5150 College Ball

jdelaney5150

Verified Member
Posted
Posted

So you are saying that Z should be looking for more than Zito money? I completely agree. So if he wants to sign with the cubs for Zito money (and less years), then why should we let him walk? You are completely contradicting yourself.

 

And I don't think you are using the word commodity correctly. Are you using it as in, a common product, indestinguishable and easily replaceable? I believe you are implying that a free agent player being paid at a level equal to his value is a commodity. Well there are a few problems with that...The way pre-arbi, arbi, and FA are set up, players are paid less than they are worth for their first 6 years of playing time in order to be paid more than they are worth after they reach the market. Secondly, Z is not easily replaceable. Thirdly, commodities are good inwhich there is a baseline of quality, one bag of soybeans is the same as another. Starting pitchers are not like this, especially aces.

 

I'm not saying players can't be commodities, and in fact there have been previous rumors of collusion alleging so. Remember the year when every #3 pitcher that hit the market was offered 7/21? Those players were commodities. Very indestinguishable in quality and readily available for replacement. Some one like Z, regardless of contract, is not.

 

Not a contradiction at all. Z has said publicly that he will be looking for "Zito money" and yes in a perfect world Z's performance over the last few years and future projections would earn him more than Zito. And you are right in saying that pre-arbi, arbi, and FA contracts are all different but that just further illustrates that what Z is basing his worth on (the Zito contract) is incorrect. He rightfully should be comparing himself to the Oswalt and Carpenter deals, and that is why I think the Cubs are in a strength position here.

 

Yes, that is the definition of commodity that I am using, although I would shy away from using the term "common". But easily replaceable is the key. Again, using the Ferrari example, there aren't a lot of them but if you have one and demolish it as long as you have the money you can go out and get yourself another one that is indistinguishable from the one you had. If you don't think Z fits that, I think you overvalue him. Over the last 4 years, Z has averaged 15 wins and a 3.3 ERA. I think that $15-$17 million per year on the FA market can buy you that kind of production in almost any given year. I don't think that every player is a commodity. Albert Pujols is not, because he can not be replaced at any price.

YearofDaCubs Myrtle Beach Pelicans

YearofDaCubs

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
What kind of negative things can be said of Carlos? The reason Carlos isn't already at least a two time 20 game winner is because of the crappy offenses Hendry put together. Hendry and Baker have abused Carlos to the point his arm is about to fall off.

 

Zambrano might have gone high with his asking price, but the Cubs lowballed him too. Zambrano is more than a million dollars better than Ted Lilly.

 

Z IMO still has to prove that he's one of the top 5 pitchers in the game before I pay him like one. We all know what happens when he lets his emotions get the better of him.

Going by ERA he is not in the top 5.

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