Cubs and Big Z Avoid Arbitration, Agree to 1/$12.4 M

[wvcubsfan]

looking into my crystal ball...... I see the Cubs winning the hearing, and a 4-5 year extension being worked out between now and opening day with an average salary of 14.5 mil.

 

I have a magic 8 ball and it said ask again later.

 

I think what you wrote will be close to what they settle for.

 

eidt..the average being 14.5 or what they settle for in 2007?

 

I think the average of the extension will be 14.5 per year. With the first year being 13 and the last year being 16 based on a four year extension.

 

I hope you're right. I think the average will be around 16.8.

 

And where the heck were you when I was battling all these guys on how good the Big East was!

 

Back home in SEC country. I had to stay away from the Cubs boards for a while, just didn't have enough time to keep up with the soap opera involving the Razorbacks and the soap opera of the Cub's off season moves so I had to choose one or the other.

 

As far as the Big East, I really don't understand why they don't get respect in football when all they do is beat teams they aren't supposed to.

[nilodnayr]

I asked this before, sorry if it was already answered...its hard to keep up to date with the billion new threads a day.

 

Has a top tier player ever gone to arbi in his last year and resigned with the same team?

 

Also, to put it in perspective, the probable difference between what Hendry thought the midpoint was going to be (12.5) and what it ended up being (13.25) is the equivalent to about 4 Jason Marquis starts (if hes healthy for the length of his contract), or the revenue the Under Armor sign is bringing in this year.

 

If Hendry were willing to settle at 12.5, then the extra 750K is insignificant in terms of starting point of long term contract negotiations. The only thing this does do is send the message to Z that Hendry believes he has the power, not only in the arbi hearing, but also in long term contract negotiations. When in reality, we all know its completely the opposite (at least for the long term contract). And I have to believe Z thinks that as well.

[wvcubsfan]

I don't know the answer for sure off the top of my head, but I would think the answer is yes. I think most players realize that this has turned into a business, and that everyone has to do what they think is best. This is only the first step. The next step will be more critical IMO.

[PrimeTime]

ESPN 1000 said Z and Jim are trying to work out a deal of around 12.5 million

[YearofDaCubs]

ESPN 1000 said Z and Jim are trying to work out a deal of around 12.5 million

OK, I think that's doable, but 14-15mil IMO isn't.

[CuseCubFan69]

ESPN 1000 said Z and Jim are trying to work out a deal of around 12.5 million

 

Are you 85% sure of that?

[nilodnayr]

so we're going to go fight with our favorite player because we won't just pay him the middle number, which is just a couple million dollars more than what we're hoping to win the right to give him?

 

i don't think this can be worth it. even if you win because z is compared to oswalt, he's still going to turn around and ask for the same zito money. what is there to be gained here?

 

A) Do we know the Cubs aren't going halfway?

 

 

B) 4 million

 

A) Yes, go to the link to Bruce's article on the first page

 

B)4M to be gained, having a good chance at signing Zambrano (plus 4M) is lost......hmmm, is it just me or does this not work out when you do a cost benefit analysis.

[jdelaney5150]

I think a lot of those thinking Z has the strong hand here can't see the forest for the trees. If Z is demanding Zito money, the Cubs have absolutely nothing to lose by letting him walk? Why? Because you know what you can get for Zito money? Zito! I am being metaphorical here, but the point is when you let a guy who is demanding top dollar walk, he is very replaceable. It is when you get the top guys at a discount (a la Oswalt and Carpenter) where it is valuable. Extraordinary players are not that valuable when they come at exorbitant prices; they are a commodity. Extraordinary players at discount prices are invaluable. Hence the Cubs have absolutely no motivation to give in to Z on this one. Z is much closer to Oswalt and Carpenter than he is to Zito, and the arby hearing will bear this out and improve the Cubs position. At that point, talks will turn towards a 5-year deal in the $75 million range (which will give him a nice ~$4 million bump this year). If Z wins, a 5-year deal will be in the $95 million range, and I don't think the Cubs have any reason to go that high with him.

[Garwilly]

so we're going to go fight with our favorite player because we won't just pay him the middle number, which is just a couple million dollars more than what we're hoping to win the right to give him?

 

i don't think this can be worth it. even if you win because z is compared to oswalt, he's still going to turn around and ask for the same zito money. what is there to be gained here?

 

A) Do we know the Cubs aren't going halfway?

 

 

B) 4 million

 

A) Yes, go to the link to Bruce's article on the first page

 

B)4M to be gained, having a good chance at signing Zambrano (plus 4M) is lost......hmmm, is it just me or does this not work out when you do a cost benefit analysis.

 

He asked what was to be gained, the answer, again, is 4 million.

 

This may or may not affect a long term deal negatively, either way, that was not the question.

[C.C.]

I think a lot of those thinking Z has the strong hand here can't see the forest for the trees. If Z is demanding Zito money, the Cubs have absolutely nothing to lose by letting him walk? Why? Because you know what you can get for Zito money? Zito! I am being metaphorical here, but the point is when you let a guy who is demanding top dollar walk, he is very replaceable. It is when you get the top guys at a discount (a la Oswalt and Carpenter) where it is valuable. Extraordinary players are not that valuable when they come at exorbitant prices; they are a commodity. Extraordinary players at discount prices are invaluable. Hence the Cubs have absolutely no motivation to give in to Z on this one. Z is much closer to Oswalt and Carpenter than he is to Zito, and the arby hearing will bear this out and improve the Cubs position. At that point, talks will turn towards a 5-year deal in the $75 million range (which will give him a nice ~$4 million bump this year). If Z wins, a 5-year deal will be in the $95 million range, and I don't think the Cubs have any reason to go that high with him.

 

I'd rather have Z, Oswalt, or Carpenter over Zito.

[Garwilly]

I think a lot of those thinking Z has the strong hand here can't see the forest for the trees. If Z is demanding Zito money, the Cubs have absolutely nothing to lose by letting him walk? Why? Because you know what you can get for Zito money? Zito! I am being metaphorical here, but the point is when you let a guy who is demanding top dollar walk, he is very replaceable. It is when you get the top guys at a discount (a la Oswalt and Carpenter) where it is valuable. Extraordinary players are not that valuable when they come at exorbitant prices; they are a commodity. Extraordinary players at discount prices are invaluable. Hence the Cubs have absolutely no motivation to give in to Z on this one. Z is much closer to Oswalt and Carpenter than he is to Zito, and the arby hearing will bear this out and improve the Cubs position. At that point, talks will turn towards a 5-year deal in the $75 million range (which will give him a nice ~$4 million bump this year). If Z wins, a 5-year deal will be in the $95 million range, and I don't think the Cubs have any reason to go that high with him.

 

I'd rather have Z, Oswalt, or Carpenter over Zito.

 

I agree.

[jdelaney5150]

I think a lot of those thinking Z has the strong hand here can't see the forest for the trees. If Z is demanding Zito money, the Cubs have absolutely nothing to lose by letting him walk? Why? Because you know what you can get for Zito money? Zito! I am being metaphorical here, but the point is when you let a guy who is demanding top dollar walk, he is very replaceable. It is when you get the top guys at a discount (a la Oswalt and Carpenter) where it is valuable. Extraordinary players are not that valuable when they come at exorbitant prices; they are a commodity. Extraordinary players at discount prices are invaluable. Hence the Cubs have absolutely no motivation to give in to Z on this one. Z is much closer to Oswalt and Carpenter than he is to Zito, and the arby hearing will bear this out and improve the Cubs position. At that point, talks will turn towards a 5-year deal in the $75 million range (which will give him a nice ~$4 million bump this year). If Z wins, a 5-year deal will be in the $95 million range, and I don't think the Cubs have any reason to go that high with him.

 

I'd rather have Z, Oswalt, or Carpenter over Zito.

 

I would too, and that actually just further proves the Cubs case that the Zito contract was not a true indication of his worth and thus not a good basis for Z to base his compensation on.

[RichHillIsABeast]

I think a lot of those thinking Z has the strong hand here can't see the forest for the trees. If Z is demanding Zito money, the Cubs have absolutely nothing to lose by letting him walk? Why? Because you know what you can get for Zito money? Zito! I am being metaphorical here, but the point is when you let a guy who is demanding top dollar walk, he is very replaceable. It is when you get the top guys at a discount (a la Oswalt and Carpenter) where it is valuable. Extraordinary players are not that valuable when they come at exorbitant prices; they are a commodity. Extraordinary players at discount prices are invaluable. Hence the Cubs have absolutely no motivation to give in to Z on this one. Z is much closer to Oswalt and Carpenter than he is to Zito, and the arby hearing will bear this out and improve the Cubs position. At that point, talks will turn towards a 5-year deal in the $75 million range (which will give him a nice ~$4 million bump this year). If Z wins, a 5-year deal will be in the $95 million range, and I don't think the Cubs have any reason to go that high with him.

 

I'd rather have Z, Oswalt, or Carpenter over Zito.

 

Zito's team didn't have the bank to offer Zito anything in the range of what Carpenter and Oswalt got from their clubs.

 

If an ace goes to FA, they can ask for Zito money. If they want to talk extensions with a current club, Carpenter and Oswalt should be the comparables.

[CardsFanInChiTown]

I think a lot of those thinking Z has the strong hand here can't see the forest for the trees. If Z is demanding Zito money, the Cubs have absolutely nothing to lose by letting him walk? Why? Because you know what you can get for Zito money? Zito! I am being metaphorical here, but the point is when you let a guy who is demanding top dollar walk, he is very replaceable. It is when you get the top guys at a discount (a la Oswalt and Carpenter) where it is valuable. Extraordinary players are not that valuable when they come at exorbitant prices; they are a commodity. Extraordinary players at discount prices are invaluable. Hence the Cubs have absolutely no motivation to give in to Z on this one. Z is much closer to Oswalt and Carpenter than he is to Zito, and the arby hearing will bear this out and improve the Cubs position. At that point, talks will turn towards a 5-year deal in the $75 million range (which will give him a nice ~$4 million bump this year). If Z wins, a 5-year deal will be in the $95 million range, and I don't think the Cubs have any reason to go that high with him.

 

 

I disagree, you pay top end talent. It's the Marquis and Lilly contracts that kill you.

[CubColtPacer]

so we're going to go fight with our favorite player because we won't just pay him the middle number, which is just a couple million dollars more than what we're hoping to win the right to give him?

 

i don't think this can be worth it. even if you win because z is compared to oswalt, he's still going to turn around and ask for the same zito money. what is there to be gained here?

 

A) Do we know the Cubs aren't going halfway?

 

 

B) 4 million

 

A) Yes, go to the link to Bruce's article on the first page

 

B)4M to be gained, having a good chance at signing Zambrano (plus 4M) is lost......hmmm, is it just me or does this not work out when you do a cost benefit analysis.

 

What does B mean? Bruce already said that he believes that the two sides going to arbitration would not likely hurt any feelings or affect anything but the starting point of the money for the negotiations.

[goonys evil twin]

I think a lot of those thinking Z has the strong hand here can't see the forest for the trees. If Z is demanding Zito money, the Cubs have absolutely nothing to lose by letting him walk? Why? Because you know what you can get for Zito money? Zito! I am being metaphorical here, but the point is when you let a guy who is demanding top dollar walk, he is very replaceable. It is when you get the top guys at a discount (a la Oswalt and Carpenter) where it is valuable. Extraordinary players are not that valuable when they come at exorbitant prices; they are a commodity. Extraordinary players at discount prices are invaluable. Hence the Cubs have absolutely no motivation to give in to Z on this one. Z is much closer to Oswalt and Carpenter than he is to Zito, and the arby hearing will bear this out and improve the Cubs position. At that point, talks will turn towards a 5-year deal in the $75 million range (which will give him a nice ~$4 million bump this year). If Z wins, a 5-year deal will be in the $95 million range, and I don't think the Cubs have any reason to go that high with him.

 

I'd rather have Z, Oswalt, or Carpenter over Zito.

 

Yeah, I have two problems with this story.

 

First off, you are making it seem like Zito is the greatest pitcher in baseball. That's not close to the case. Also, calling extraordinary players commodities is just inaccurate. Commodities suggest readily available and significant supply, not to mention of equal value. Extraordinary players are by their very nature extraordinary, ie not commodities. They are worth the money because those are the guys that make a difference between average and great. Sure, you'd rather get your great players at cheap cost, but that can only happen if you grow them internally. They are few and far between and hard to develop, however.

 

I would much rather overpay a great player and fill the rest of the spots with replacable commodities (guys like Marquis, Izturis, Jones), than overpay those replacable commodities and let a great player walk.

 

I agree with your statement that the Cubs don't have motivation to give into Zambrano's arby price, or even the midway point. But the reasoning you use to get to that point isn't really logical at all.

[YearofDaCubs]

I think a lot of those thinking Z has the strong hand here can't see the forest for the trees. If Z is demanding Zito money, the Cubs have absolutely nothing to lose by letting him walk? Why? Because you know what you can get for Zito money? Zito! I am being metaphorical here, but the point is when you let a guy who is demanding top dollar walk, he is very replaceable. It is when you get the top guys at a discount (a la Oswalt and Carpenter) where it is valuable. Extraordinary players are not that valuable when they come at exorbitant prices; they are a commodity. Extraordinary players at discount prices are invaluable. Hence the Cubs have absolutely no motivation to give in to Z on this one. Z is much closer to Oswalt and Carpenter than he is to Zito, and the arby hearing will bear this out and improve the Cubs position. At that point, talks will turn towards a 5-year deal in the $75 million range (which will give him a nice ~$4 million bump this year). If Z wins, a 5-year deal will be in the $95 million range, and I don't think the Cubs have any reason to go that high with him.

 

I'd rather have Z, Oswalt, or Carpenter over Zito.

Santana, Carpenter, Oswalt, Webb, Halladay, Sabathia, and Arroyo all had better ERA's than Z last year, how much are they making?

[jdelaney5150]

I think a lot of those thinking Z has the strong hand here can't see the forest for the trees. If Z is demanding Zito money, the Cubs have absolutely nothing to lose by letting him walk? Why? Because you know what you can get for Zito money? Zito! I am being metaphorical here, but the point is when you let a guy who is demanding top dollar walk, he is very replaceable. It is when you get the top guys at a discount (a la Oswalt and Carpenter) where it is valuable. Extraordinary players are not that valuable when they come at exorbitant prices; they are a commodity. Extraordinary players at discount prices are invaluable. Hence the Cubs have absolutely no motivation to give in to Z on this one. Z is much closer to Oswalt and Carpenter than he is to Zito, and the arby hearing will bear this out and improve the Cubs position. At that point, talks will turn towards a 5-year deal in the $75 million range (which will give him a nice ~$4 million bump this year). If Z wins, a 5-year deal will be in the $95 million range, and I don't think the Cubs have any reason to go that high with him.

 

I'd rather have Z, Oswalt, or Carpenter over Zito.

 

Yeah, I have two problems with this story.

 

First off, you are making it seem like Zito is the greatest pitcher in baseball. That's not close to the case. Also, calling extraordinary players commodities is just inaccurate. Commodities suggest readily available and significant supply, not to mention of equal value. Extraordinary players are by their very nature extraordinary, ie not commodities. They are worth the money because those are the guys that make a difference between average and great. Sure, you'd rather get your great players at cheap cost, but that can only happen if you grow them internally. They are few and far between and hard to develop, however.

 

I would much rather overpay a great player and fill the rest of the spots with replacable commodities (guys like Marquis, Izturis, Jones), than overpay those replacable commodities and let a great player walk.

 

I agree with your statement that the Cubs don't have motivation to give into Zambrano's arby price, or even the midway point. But the reasoning you use to get to that point isn't really logical at all.

 

I want to stress again that the Zito comparison was metaphorical. I used Zito because he was the #1 FA pitcher on the market this winter, and my point was that if your ace is demanding the price tag of the #1 FA pitcher, you don't lose that much by letting him walk because you can go out and spend roughly the same amount and sign the #1 FA pitcher on the market the next year. Yes, sometimes there are really lean FA years but there are also really full FA years too so I think it evens out. I'm also not suggesting that you should in fact let him walk, just saying that knowing that you can gives you the position of strength.

[goonys evil twin]

I want to stress again that the Zito comparison was metaphorical. I used Zito because he was the #1 FA pitcher on the market this winter, and my point was that if your ace is demanding the price tag of the #1 FA pitcher, you don't lose that much by letting him walk because you can go out and spend roughly the same amount and sign the #1 FA pitcher on the market the next year. Yes, sometimes there are really lean FA years but there are also really full FA years too so I think it evens out. I'm also not suggesting that you should in fact let him walk, just saying that knowing that you can gives you the position of strength.

 

That makes no sense. You can't "just go out and sign the #1 FA pitcher on the market next year".

 

You are devaluing top notch pitchers by referring them as commodities.

[cl smooth]

so what time will we find out whether z or the cubs won this chess match?

[jdelaney5150]

I want to stress again that the Zito comparison was metaphorical. I used Zito because he was the #1 FA pitcher on the market this winter, and my point was that if your ace is demanding the price tag of the #1 FA pitcher, you don't lose that much by letting him walk because you can go out and spend roughly the same amount and sign the #1 FA pitcher on the market the next year. Yes, sometimes there are really lean FA years but there are also really full FA years too so I think it evens out. I'm also not suggesting that you should in fact let him walk, just saying that knowing that you can gives you the position of strength.

 

That makes no sense. You can't "just go out and sign the #1 FA pitcher on the market next year".

 

You are devaluing top notch pitchers by referring them as commodities.

 

Of course you can. Why wouldn't you be able to? And it is not at all devaluing something by calling it a commodity. A Ferrari is a commodity, and it's pretty valuable. It just means that it is replaceable, and $17 million pitchers are.

[Scott G. F.]

so what time will we find out whether z or the cubs won this chess match?

 

 

Bruce Miles is on scene. When he know's we'll know. It began 11 minutes ago.

[nilodnayr]

I think a lot of those thinking Z has the strong hand here can't see the forest for the trees. If Z is demanding Zito money, the Cubs have absolutely nothing to lose by letting him walk? Why? Because you know what you can get for Zito money? Zito! I am being metaphorical here, but the point is when you let a guy who is demanding top dollar walk, he is very replaceable. It is when you get the top guys at a discount (a la Oswalt and Carpenter) where it is valuable. Extraordinary players are not that valuable when they come at exorbitant prices; they are a commodity. Extraordinary players at discount prices are invaluable. Hence the Cubs have absolutely no motivation to give in to Z on this one. Z is much closer to Oswalt and Carpenter than he is to Zito, and the arby hearing will bear this out and improve the Cubs position. At that point, talks will turn towards a 5-year deal in the $75 million range (which will give him a nice ~$4 million bump this year). If Z wins, a 5-year deal will be in the $95 million range, and I don't think the Cubs have any reason to go that high with him.

 

I'd rather have Z, Oswalt, or Carpenter over Zito.

 

I would too, and that actually just further proves the Cubs case that the Zito contract was not a true indication of his worth and thus not a good basis for Z to base his compensation on.

 

So you are saying that Z should be looking for more than Zito money? I completely agree. So if he wants to sign with the cubs for Zito money (and less years), then why should we let him walk? You are completely contradicting yourself.

 

And I don't think you are using the word commodity correctly. Are you using it as in, a common product, indestinguishable and easily replaceable? I believe you are implying that a free agent player being paid at a level equal to his value is a commodity. Well there are a few problems with that...The way pre-arbi, arbi, and FA are set up, players are paid less than they are worth for their first 6 years of playing time in order to be paid more than they are worth after they reach the market. Secondly, Z is not easily replaceable. Thirdly, commodities are good inwhich there is a baseline of quality, one bag of soybeans is the same as another. Starting pitchers are not like this, especially aces.

 

I'm not saying players can't be commodities, and in fact there have been previous rumors of collusion alleging so. Remember the year when every #3 pitcher that hit the market was offered 7/21? Those players were commodities. Very indestinguishable in quality and readily available for replacement. Some one like Z, regardless of contract, is not.

[JonnyRed]

What kind of negative things can be said of Carlos? The reason Carlos isn't already at least a two time 20 game winner is because of the crappy offenses Hendry put together. Hendry and Baker have abused Carlos to the point his arm is about to fall off.

 

Zambrano might have gone high with his asking price, but the Cubs lowballed him too. Zambrano is more than a million dollars better than Ted Lilly.

 

Z IMO still has to prove that he's one of the top 5 pitchers in the game before I pay him like one. We all know what happens when he lets his emotions get the better of him.

[nilodnayr]

so we're going to go fight with our favorite player because we won't just pay him the middle number, which is just a couple million dollars more than what we're hoping to win the right to give him?

 

i don't think this can be worth it. even if you win because z is compared to oswalt, he's still going to turn around and ask for the same zito money. what is there to be gained here?

 

A) Do we know the Cubs aren't going halfway?

 

 

B) 4 million

 

A) Yes, go to the link to Bruce's article on the first page

 

B)4M to be gained, having a good chance at signing Zambrano (plus 4M) is lost......hmmm, is it just me or does this not work out when you do a cost benefit analysis.

 

What does B mean? Bruce already said that he believes that the two sides going to arbitration would not likely hurt any feelings or affect anything but the starting point of the money for the negotiations.

 

While I have all the trust in the world for Bruce and believe every word he says, there has to be at least a little affect of going to abri on the situation. Z is a proud guy, it can't not affect him at all. Additionally, in my opinion (or memory), this would be completely unprecedented.

 

I believe eventually the cubs will sign Z long term because they absolutely have to, but I also believe going to arbi has an adverse impact to that process/relationship.