[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Revising what he's done for the offenses, I'd go in a different route.

 

Barrett/Blanco > Estrada/Miller. The defense that Estrada may give over Barrett doesn't make up for the huge advantage Barrett has offensively.

 

Lee> Fielder. If Fielder keeps improving and Lee declines, this one could swing the other way.

 

DeRosa = Weeks. Even calling it a push assumes a DeRosa decline while Weeks improves. If both repeated their most recent seasons, then DeRosa would move ahead. I assume a slight decline from DeRosa and I do think Weeks will get much better. How much better next season? I don't know.

 

Hardy > Izturis. Defensively, they are equal. Hardy is no great shakes with the bat, but Izturis sucks. If Theriot could unseat Izturis, it might equal things up here a bit.

 

Ramirez > Koskie/Whoeverthehelltheyuse

 

Murton/Floyd > Mench/Jenkins

 

I haven't talked the Hall/Soriano comparison, so I guess I'll touch on it here.

 

Hall has a career OPS+ of 105. His last three seasons were 126, 117, and 70. He definitely seems to be improving as he's entering his prime.

 

Soriano has a career OPS+ of 115. His last three years have been 98, 110, 132. Just as good if not better than Hall over the same span.

 

He credits Hall for being younger and detracts Soriano for age. I'm not sure that Soriano is about to leave his productive years just yet. I also find it amusing that he takes away from Soriano's defense in CF which has yet to be proven while saying he "thinks" Hall will be pretty good, even though Hall has only played 7 games in CF thus far. Both are athletic enough to handle it, so I don't detract either.

 

Maybe this is my homer pick, but I'm taking Soriano here as well.

 

Soriano > Hall

 

Jones > Hart

 

So, offensively, the Cubs hold the edge almost everywhere.

 

I may look at the pitching later.

[Balsa]

What this ignores is that the game is not played by position.

 

IE, the amount Barrett, Ramirez, and Lee are better far eclipses and may cover for other weaknesses. In this way, it makes it misleadingly close.

[oldstyle81]

he also said that lee is only slightly better than laroche and Lee is injury prone

 

for the pirates on their MLB board

[oldstyle81]

I agree with the assesment that a healthy Sheets is better than Zambrano.

 

so a career 3.83 era in 1088 ip is better than a 3.29 in 977 ip? i think their whip's might be close but i bet zambrano has a much better baa. without a doubt advantage Z.

 

BAA

Zambrano .224

Sheets .258

 

Zambrano gives up more walks but when he is on, he is much better than sheets

[Mizzou]

Wow, Bill Hall is a heck of a ballplayer. I didn't realize how good he was last year until just now. I'd still take Soriano over him though.

[Balsa]

Wow, Bill Hall is a heck of a ballplayer. I didn't realize how good he was last year until just now. I'd still take Soriano over him though.

Imagine getting that kind of production from SS :shock:

[CubinNY]

Too bad baseball isn't boxing.

 

Z over sheets in a first round KO

Barrett over Estrada, judges decsion

Lee over Fielder (he has the reach), TKO in the 8th

Weeks is faster than DeRosa, so I will give it to DeRosa on points

Iztuis over Hardy, those Latin guys are scrappy, judges decision

Murton KOs Mench in the fourth, then finshes off Geof for spelling his name funny in a one punch KO, The Ginger kid has some pipes

Aramis wins by forefit

JJ man handles Hart, TKO in the fifth

Soriano out points Hall, speed kills

Marquis is Krazy and goes bat crap all over Soupon in a 2nd round KO

Hill and Bush fight to a draw and neither man gets hit once

Prior goes UFC and gets a submission from Vargas with a devistating leg lock.

 

Floyd was going to fight Bernie the Brewer but hurt his Acheles tendon trying to get through the ropes before the fight so that is the only win for the Brew Crew.

 

Makes about as much sense as ranking baseball teams head to head.

[Guest]

If you assume health, I could see giving sheets an edge over Z. But then I'd say assume health for both Sheets and Prior and give the edge to Mark.

 

If you're not going to make health an assumption for anyone, then just go ahead and say that Z has a clear edge on everyone because of durability.

[Handlebar McSkullet]

Estrada isnt even that strong defensively. Barrett smokes Estrada.

 

Ill give them the "weeks, fielder, and hall(im from milwaukee and my eyes bug out over how amazing he is) are young and improving" if I can get Murton, Zambrano.

 

Ill give them Sheets "completely healthy" if I get Prior, Miller, and Wood.

 

Ill give them JJ has "more pop", but until he recieves a gold glove, his batting and health is just too poor to be an advantage over Izturis.

 

The Cubs bullpen has a pretty big advantage over the brewers.

 

Buster is on crack!!!

[nilodnayr]

FWIW, PECOTA predicts Fielder will be better offensively than Lee THIS year. Of course when you take defense into consideration the scales tip in Lee's favor.

 

Anyone have a guess when Braun will be called up?

[KingCubsFan]

FWIW, PECOTA predicts Fielder will be better offensively than Lee THIS year. Of course when you take defense into consideration the scales tip in Lee's favor.

 

Anyone have a guess when Braun will be called up?

BA says possibly all-star break

[Mephistopheles]

I agree with the assesment that a healthy Sheets is better than Zambrano.

 

so a career 3.83 era in 1088 ip is better than a 3.29 in 977 ip? i think their whip's might be close but i bet zambrano has a much better baa. without a doubt advantage Z.

 

BAA

Zambrano .224

Sheets .258

 

Zambrano gives up more walks but when he is on, he is much better than sheets

Ben Sheets is a stud. He strikes out more than Zambrano and allows a Greg Maddux-prime esque walk rate. He's simply the second best pitcher in the game if healthy. He might even be as good as Santana.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Actually I have an unfounded gut feeling telling me Zambrano is going to get hurt in the not too distant future.

 

You aren't the only one. :(

[baseball7897]

I agree with the assesment that a healthy Sheets is better than Zambrano.

 

so a career 3.83 era in 1088 ip is better than a 3.29 in 977 ip? i think their whip's might be close but i bet zambrano has a much better baa. without a doubt advantage Z.

 

BAA

Zambrano .224

Sheets .258

 

Zambrano gives up more walks but when he is on, he is much better than sheets

Ben Sheets is a stud. He strikes out more than Zambrano and allows a Greg Maddux-prime esque walk rate. He's simply the second best pitcher in the game if healthy. He might even be as good as Santana.

 

That is a very bold statement. Ben Sheets is one of those rare power pitchers with command of the strikezone, but to say he is the second best pitcher in baseball when healthy is a little over board.

[TruffleShuffle]

Ben Sheets is not in the same class as Johan Santana. No way.

[CheeseHead Cubs Fan]

Ben Sheets is not in the same class as Johan Santana. No way.

 

Agreed, Santana has his own category. Sheets (when healthy) can be amazing. Perhaps a better comparison is Roy Oswalt, no?

[BigbadB]

Ben Sheets is not in the same class as Johan Santana. No way.

 

Agreed, Santana has his own category. Sheets (when healthy) can be amazing. Perhaps a better comparison is Roy Oswalt, no?

 

I'd compare him to Peavy.

[Productive Outs]

FWIW, PECOTA predicts Fielder will be better offensively than Lee THIS year. Of course when you take defense into consideration the scales tip in Lee's favor.

 

Anyone have a guess when Braun will be called up?

 

i really think Lee will perform closer to his 75th projected procentile. PECOTA's inability to differentiate between injuries makes Lee have about 66% of the normal PAs for a year.

[KingCubsFan]

I agree with the assesment that a healthy Sheets is better than Zambrano.

 

so a career 3.83 era in 1088 ip is better than a 3.29 in 977 ip? i think their whip's might be close but i bet zambrano has a much better baa. without a doubt advantage Z.

 

BAA

Zambrano .224

Sheets .258

 

Zambrano gives up more walks but when he is on, he is much better than sheets

Mark Prior is a stud. He strikes out more than Zambrano and allows a Greg Maddux-prime esque walk rate. He's simply the second best pitcher in the game if healthy. He might even be as good as Santana.

fixed[/b]

[Rob]

Just to stimulate debate, here are a few quick and dirty numbers from the PECOTA projections for Sheets and Santana.

 

Santana:

 

90th Percentile - 226.3 IP, 177 H, 243 SO, 41 BB, 0.97 WHIP, 2.16 ERA

Weighted Mean - 218.7 IP, 187 H, 218 SO, 50 BB, 1.08 WHIP, 2.97 ERA

10th Percentile - 185.7 IP, 175 H, 168 SO, 54 B, 1.23 WHIP, 3.96 ERA

 

Sheets:

 

90th Percentile - 196 IP, 163 H, 197 SO, 27 BB, 0.97 WHIP, 2.59 ERA

Weighted Mean - 180.7 IP, 162 H, 172 SO, 30 BB, 1.06 WHIP, 3.29 ERA

10th Percentile - 136.7 IP, 135 H, 120 SO, 28 BB, 1.19 WHIP, 4.25 ERA

[CoolHandLuke]

Just to stimulate debate, here are a few quick and dirty numbers from the PECOTA projections for Sheets and Santana.

 

Santana:

 

90th Percentile - 226.3 IP, 177 H, 243 SO, 41 BB, 0.97 WHIP, 2.16 ERA

Weighted Mean - 218.7 IP, 187 H, 218 SO, 50 BB, 1.08 WHIP, 2.97 ERA

10th Percentile - 185.7 IP, 175 H, 168 SO, 54 B, 1.23 WHIP, 3.96 ERA

 

Sheets:

 

90th Percentile - 196 IP, 163 H, 197 SO, 27 BB, 0.97 WHIP, 2.59 ERA

Weighted Mean - 180.7 IP, 162 H, 172 SO, 30 BB, 1.06 WHIP, 3.29 ERA

10th Percentile - 136.7 IP, 135 H, 120 SO, 28 BB, 1.19 WHIP, 4.25 ERA

 

Zambrano:

 

90th Percentile - 227.3 IP, 177 H, 241 SO, 83 BB, 1.14 WHIP, 2.95 ERA

Weighted Mean - 215 IP, 184 H, 210 SO, 92 BB, 1.29 WHIP, 3.85 ERA

10th Percentile - 122.3 IP, 127 H, 97 SO, 70 BB, 1.61 WHIP, 5.86 ERA