I like the Brewers this year

[TruffleShuffle]

My pick to win the NL Central this year is the Milwaukee Brewers. They've been building their team the way a small-market team should, from the farm system. The signing of Jeff Suppan was surprising, but gives them another consistent veteran starter. Here's the way they shake out:

 

C - Johnny Estrada - I think the deal for him was a good one, especially if Doug Davis' poor year last year was not a fluke. Throwing over 100 walks and a sharp decline in his K-rate suggests to me that it wasn't.

 

Anyhow, Estrada can't draw a walk to save his life, but he is a pretty solid hitter for a catcher. He's definitely an upgrade over Damian Miller, who belongs as a backup at this stage of his career

 

1B - Was already good last year, hitting 271/347/483 with an OPS+ of 111, at just age 22. If he tightens his strike zone a little this year, he could really be a feared hitter. I think he'll have a really good year.

 

2B - Rickie Weeks - Hasn't been quite as good as expected, but still had a .363 OBP and 97 OPS+ in 2006. I think he'll progress offensively, but he really needs to get better defensively. .950 FP for a 2B downright sucks.

 

SS - J.J. Hardy - I love his glove, but there are definite questions about his bat. He does have pretty good patience though. I think he'll at least be able to contribute somewhat offensively as long as he's over his ankle problems from last year.

 

3B - Corey Koskie - He's been very steady during his career, but the big question is health. He played only 97 games in 2005 and missed a lot of last year with a severe concussion, and still isn't participating in baseball-related activities. They do have Tony Graffanino and Craig Counsell, who are adequate backups, but I think they'd be better served to move Bill Hall to 3B and go with Kevin Mench in LF - assuming Koskie isn't ready to go.

 

LF - Bill Hall. Projected to move to the outfield, since he's not a great SS and J.J. Hardy should be ready. Hall really blew up last year, doubling his HR total from the previous year. He drew a lot more walks but also struck out a ton. I don't think he'll have the power numbers he did last year, but he still should be a good offensive presence.

 

CF - Brady Clark - liked him a lot in 2004 and 2005, but in 2006 his OBP went down and his power - doubles and homers - completely vanished. I think he'll bounce back some, since his poor BA in 2006 was mainly due to a mediocre BABIP despite a solid 23 LD%. Still he's no better than an average leadoff hitter.

 

RF - Geoff Jenkins - really not a great hitter, and his power was down last year. He also seems to get injured a lot, although his health hasn't been too bad the past 3 years. He'll probably do about what he did last year.

 

Extra OF - Kevin Mench, Laynce Nix, Gabe Gross. Mench had a disappointing 2006 but still is a good backup and a serviceable starter. Nix was highly touted as a prospect, but has been awful in the bigs. His plate discipline is atrocious and it's hard to believe that he'll ever be more than a good-field, no-hit outfielder. Gabe Gross had a good year as an extra OF last year, and could be a good bat off the bench.

 

 

Tomorrow or Tuesday I'll get to pitching. Starting pitching is good and deep, which is why I like them.

[Andy]

I got burned by the Brewers' potential last year, and I'm dropping them before they turn into my Arizona Cardinals of baseball in terms of continually picking them to do well.

[A New Era]

My pick to win the NL central this year. . . The Chicago Cubs.

[wolf stansson]

2B - Rickie Weeks - Hasn't been quite as good as expected, but still had a .363 OBP and 97 OPS+

Saying he still had a 97 ops+ makes it sound like that is a good thing.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

After looking at their offense they're better than I expected. What to make of that bullpen though?

[illiniguy]

Does Ryan Braun factor in this year at all? If he can take the third base job I really like their team.

[baseball7897]

The Brewers will contend for the NL central title in 07, but I think they're another year or two away from being serious contenders. Their biggest key to me is going to be the health of Ben Sheets. If he can make 30-35 starts this year, then I think they have as a good of a shot as another NL central team besides the Pirates.

[CoolHandLuke]

Does Ryan Braun factor in this year at all? If he can take the third base job I really like their team.

 

It sounds like he has a shot at winning the job out of spring training, especially if Koskie can't get over his injuries. I think he takes over full time at some point in the season. The brewers could be set in the infield for a long time if Hardy ever starts hitting like he should and Braun is the real deal.

 

Truffle also forgot to mention Corey Hart. I have heard that Hall will get a look in center, with Hart getting a shot to win a starting corner outfield spot. They have a lot of options in the outfield and I'm not sure anything is decided, but they definately have a decent enough stable to pick from (Jenkins, Hall, Hart, Gross, Mench, Clark)

 

I think their season hinges on the health of Sheets.

[goonys evil twin]

I haven't paid much attention to other teams this year. I really don't have a good grasp on the strengths and weaknesses of the competition. I did have a Cardinals fan at my SB party who claimed "everybody in the Central got better this offseason". I don't think that's true, but I was too distracted to get into a conversation about it.

[TruffleShuffle]

2B - Rickie Weeks - Hasn't been quite as good as expected, but still had a .363 OBP and 97 OPS+

Saying he still had a 97 ops+ makes it sound like that is a good thing.

 

Well considering that a 97 OPS+ tied him for 9th out of 30 in terms of all starting MLB second basemen, I'd say it sort of is a good thing. Would you like to reconsider your sarcastic response?

[BigbadB]

I was going to point out that Corey Hart was missing from the original post, but someone beat me to it. They seem pretty high on him.

 

There is no guarantee that Jenkins will be in the outfield when the season starts. They've been trying to move him all winter long.

 

But, I do agree that they are an improved team.

[soccer10k]

The Brewers will contend for the NL central title in 07, but I think they're another year or two away from being serious contenders. Their biggest key to me is going to be the health of Ben Sheets. If he can make 30-35 starts this year, then I think they have as a good of a shot as another NL central team besides the Pirates.

 

Not that it necessarily matters in this case, but the 2003 Cubs were supposed to be a year away from seriously contending as well. Just figured I would point that out.

[wolf stansson]

2B - Rickie Weeks - Hasn't been quite as good as expected, but still had a .363 OBP and 97 OPS+

Saying he still had a 97 ops+ makes it sound like that is a good thing.

 

Well considering that a 97 OPS+ tied him for 9th out of 30 in terms of all starting MLB second basemen, I'd say it sort of is a good thing. Would you like to reconsider your sarcastic response?

How was it sarcastic, Truffle? There was zero irony to what I was saying.

 

Also, no, I would not like to reconsider it. A 97 ops + is above average for a second basemen, but it is not a huge strength to their team. Since he will likely improve this year, it will be, but that wasn't what I was pointing out.

[goonys evil twin]

2B - Rickie Weeks - Hasn't been quite as good as expected, but still had a .363 OBP and 97 OPS+

Saying he still had a 97 ops+ makes it sound like that is a good thing.

 

Well considering that a 97 OPS+ tied him for 9th out of 30 in terms of all starting MLB second basemen, I'd say it sort of is a good thing. Would you like to reconsider your sarcastic response?

How was it sarcastic, Truffle? There was zero irony to what I was saying.

 

Also, no, I would not like to reconsider it. A 97 ops + is above average for a second basemen, but it is not a huge strength to their team. Since he will likely improve this year, it will be, but that wasn't what I was pointing out.

 

I don't think he was calling it a huge strength to their team, more like a decent enough option to hold down the position without killing them offensively.

[cheapseats]

 

C - Johnny Estrada - I think the deal for him was a good one, especially if Doug Davis' poor year last year was not a fluke. Throwing over 100 walks and a sharp decline in his K-rate suggests to me that it wasn't.

 

Anyhow, Estrada can't draw a walk to save his life, but he is a pretty solid hitter for a catcher. He's definitely an upgrade over Damian Miller, who belongs as a backup at this stage of his career

 

PECOTA:

Johnny Estrada: .274 .316 .407

Damian Miller: .252 .322 .392

 

Estrada's predicted EQA is just one point higher than Miller's.

 

Doug Davis projects to be worth 1.5 wins more than Estrada.

 

Davis should have brought back something better than Johnny Estrada.

[Guest]

Last yr, I said I wasn't convince the Brewers were going to be the 06 "Sleeper team" of MLB, and I was right. Granted, it didn't take a brain surgeon to figure out, tho. I mean at the time they either have injury problems (Sheets) or unproven players at key spots (Fielder/Hall/Hardy), so they weren't ready to contend last yr. Now this yr, I'm still not convince they are ready to contend, but I little less gung-ho about that proclamation. I think the Brewers are a "Wait and see" team. Let's see where they are at after April, just liike Cleveland.

[CP_414]

My pick to win the NL Central this year is the Milwaukee Brewers. They've been building their team the way a small-market team should, from the farm system. The signing of Jeff Suppan was surprising, but gives them another consistent veteran starter. Here's the way they shake out:

 

C - Johnny Estrada - I think the deal for him was a good one, especially if Doug Davis' poor year last year was not a fluke. Throwing over 100 walks and a sharp decline in his K-rate suggests to me that it wasn't.

 

Anyhow, Estrada can't draw a walk to save his life, but he is a pretty solid hitter for a catcher. He's definitely an upgrade over Damian Miller, who belongs as a backup at this stage of his career

 

1B - Was already good last year, hitting 271/347/483 with an OPS+ of 111, at just age 22. If he tightens his strike zone a little this year, he could really be a feared hitter. I think he'll have a really good year.

 

2B - Rickie Weeks - Hasn't been quite as good as expected, but still had a .363 OBP and 97 OPS+ in 2006. I think he'll progress offensively, but he really needs to get better defensively. .950 FP for a 2B downright sucks.

 

SS - J.J. Hardy - I love his glove, but there are definite questions about his bat. He does have pretty good patience though. I think he'll at least be able to contribute somewhat offensively as long as he's over his ankle problems from last year.

 

3B - Corey Koskie - He's been very steady during his career, but the big question is health. He played only 97 games in 2005 and missed a lot of last year with a severe concussion, and still isn't participating in baseball-related activities. They do have Tony Graffanino and Craig Counsell, who are adequate backups, but I think they'd be better served to move Bill Hall to 3B and go with Kevin Mench in LF - assuming Koskie isn't ready to go.

 

LF - Bill Hall. Projected to move to the outfield, since he's not a great SS and J.J. Hardy should be ready. Hall really blew up last year, doubling his HR total from the previous year. He drew a lot more walks but also struck out a ton. I don't think he'll have the power numbers he did last year, but he still should be a good offensive presence.

 

CF - Brady Clark - liked him a lot in 2004 and 2005, but in 2006 his OBP went down and his power - doubles and homers - completely vanished. I think he'll bounce back some, since his poor BA in 2006 was mainly due to a mediocre BABIP despite a solid 23 LD%. Still he's no better than an average leadoff hitter.

 

RF - Geoff Jenkins - really not a great hitter, and his power was down last year. He also seems to get injured a lot, although his health hasn't been too bad the past 3 years. He'll probably do about what he did last year.

 

Extra OF - Kevin Mench, Laynce Nix, Gabe Gross. Mench had a disappointing 2006 but still is a good backup and a serviceable starter. Nix was highly touted as a prospect, but has been awful in the bigs. His plate discipline is atrocious and it's hard to believe that he'll ever be more than a good-field, no-hit outfielder. Gabe Gross had a good year as an extra OF last year, and could be a good bat off the bench.

 

 

Tomorrow or Tuesday I'll get to pitching. Starting pitching is good and deep, which is why I like them.

 

I think the Brew crew has a great chance to win the Central. Based on all the reports up here in Milwaukee the starters will not be what you had.

 

It should look like this:

C- Estrada/Miller

1B - Prince

2B - Weeks

SS - Hardy

3B - Koskie, if he is healthy to start the year and that is not a given. If Koskie is going to miss any significant time the job goes to Braun, and once Braun takes the job he will keep it.

LF - Jenkins vs. RHP, Mench vs. LHP it seems Yost wants to go with a strict platoon there.

CF - Bill Hall

RF - Corey Hart

 

If Sheets can pitch near 200 innings (again, a big if) Milwaukee will have a great shot to win the division.

 

Sheets, Cappy, Suppan, Bush, Vargas/Villenueva

[wekse]

i'm hoping braun is here in nashville for a bit :D

[nilodnayr]

i'm hoping braun is here in nashville for a bit :D

 

Assuming Koskie is a no go (last report was a month ago that he hadn't resumed baseball activity and in this case no news is bad news), the only way Braun breaks with the team is if he has a fantastic spring. Reports I've heard are that they will start with Graffanino/Counsell at 3B. Hopefully that wont last into May.

[cheapseats]

i'm hoping braun is here in nashville for a bit :D

 

Assuming Koskie is a no go (last report was a month ago that he hadn't resumed baseball activity and in this case no news is bad news), the only way Braun breaks with the team is if he has a fantastic spring. Reports I've heard are that they will start with Graffanino/Counsell at 3B. Hopefully that wont last into May.

 

Stupid Brewers.

[nilodnayr]

i'm hoping braun is here in nashville for a bit :D

 

Assuming Koskie is a no go (last report was a month ago that he hadn't resumed baseball activity and in this case no news is bad news), the only way Braun breaks with the team is if he has a fantastic spring. Reports I've heard are that they will start with Graffanino/Counsell at 3B. Hopefully that wont last into May.

 

Stupid Brewers.

 

Agreed. But at least the Jenkins/Mench platoon will be incredibly productive.

[oldstyle81]

Sheets is to the Brewers as Prior is to the Cubs

 

potential up the arse if only they could actually use it

[nilodnayr]

Sheets is to the Brewers as Prior is to the Cubs

 

potential up the arse if only they could actually use it

 

Difference is, Sheets used it last year, Prior didn't. Sheets is supposed to be healthy next year, Prior isn't.

[wekse]

i'm hoping braun is here in nashville for a bit :D

 

Assuming Koskie is a no go (last report was a month ago that he hadn't resumed baseball activity and in this case no news is bad news), the only way Braun breaks with the team is if he has a fantastic spring. Reports I've heard are that they will start with Graffanino/Counsell at 3B. Hopefully that wont last into May.

 

Stupid Brewers.

 

i love that they're pretty stupid...i've got to see some great minor league ballgames over the last few years, heh.

[Ender]

The Brewers got killed last year by injuries, they lost 75% of the IF and 40% of their starting rotation long term. So its really hard to pat yourself on the back for being right about them not being a top team. Any team that has 5 important players go down for half a season is going to look pretty ugly.

 

I think the Brewers have as good a shot as anyone else in the NL Central. Its going to take at least two of the young guys stepping up a good bit to make it happen and Weeks, Hardy and Sheets staying healthy.

 

Sheets, Capuano, Bush, Suppan, Vargas is probably the best rotation in the division but the bullpen could hold the pitching back somewhat and the offense is most likely just average.