Hendry on Sports Central tonight

[abuck1220]

also, just because some guys have good minor league numbers and end up not being good major leaguers does NOT mean that some guys with bad minor league numbers end up with good major league numbers. it doesn't work both ways.

 

i can't even believe you're trying to make that argument.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

also, just because some guys have good minor league numbers and end up not being good major leaguers does NOT mean that some guys with bad minor league numbers end up with good major league numbers. it doesn't work both ways.

 

i can't even believe you're trying to make that argument.

 

Actually, I can believe he made the argument. I've just surprised he didn't find a way to mention Bellhorn, Grieve, and Choi in that post.

[oldcubsfan]

Just pointing out that the people who claim minor league stats are predictive are not always correct. The predictability factor is not absolute. If that bothers you, sorry.

[ltb]

Just pointing out that the people who claim minor league stats are predictive are not always correct. The predictability factor is not absolute. If that bothers you, sorry.

 

please provide me with a better predictor of future performance

thanks!

[abuck1220]

Just pointing out that the people who claim minor league stats are predictive are not always correct. The predictability factor is not absolute. If that bothers you, sorry.

 

i agree that some good minor leaguers end up being bad major leaguers.

 

but that sure as hell doesn't mean that bad minor leaguers end up being good major leaguers.

[oldcubsfan]

Just pointing out that the people who claim minor league stats are predictive are not always correct. The predictability factor is not absolute. If that bothers you, sorry.

 

please provide me with a better predictor of future performance

thanks!

 

Why? Do you think minor league stats can be equated to major league performance absolutely? If so, you have your opinion already.

[abuck1220]

Just pointing out that the people who claim minor league stats are predictive are not always correct. The predictability factor is not absolute. If that bothers you, sorry.

 

please provide me with a better predictor of future performance

thanks!

 

Why? Do you think minor league stats can be equated to major league performance absolutely? If so, you have your opinion already.

 

great answer. you've really provided a lot of support for your position.

[oldcubsfan]

Just pointing out that the people who claim minor league stats are predictive are not always correct. The predictability factor is not absolute. If that bothers you, sorry.

 

i agree that some good minor leaguers end up being bad major leaguers.

 

but that sure as hell doesn't mean that bad minor leaguers end up being good major leaguers.

 

I don't think RH was saying Pagan was going to turn into a superstar, I was agreeing that he could be a decent major league player, nothing more. He wasn't a terrible minor league player. I just think he can be a fine 4th or 5th outfielder and may be a short term answer in CF until Pie is ready. He certainly isn't the long term answer, but short term he could be. That's all I'm agreeing with.

[oldcubsfan]

Just pointing out that the people who claim minor league stats are predictive are not always correct. The predictability factor is not absolute. If that bothers you, sorry.

 

please provide me with a better predictor of future performance

thanks!

 

Why? Do you think minor league stats can be equated to major league performance absolutely? If so, you have your opinion already.

 

great answer. you've really provided a lot of support for your position.

And your postion is that minor league stats are a great predictor, is that correct? Well, Vance added a few more recent examples of how your preddictor has failed to predict accurately.

[RichHillIsABeast]

Just pointing out that the people who claim minor league stats are predictive are not always correct. The predictability factor is not absolute. If that bothers you, sorry.

 

please provide me with a better predictor of future performance

thanks!

 

Why? Do you think minor league stats can be equated to major league performance absolutely? If so, you have your opinion already.

 

great answer. you've really provided a lot of support for your position.

 

Be reasonable. It wouldn't matter what he or anyone said to you. Your opinion won't ever change. Thanks for keeping an open mind!

[treebird]

Just pointing out that the people who claim minor league stats are predictive are not always correct. The predictability factor is not absolute. If that bothers you, sorry.

 

please provide me with a better predictor of future performance

thanks!

 

Why? Do you think minor league stats can be equated to major league performance absolutely? If so, you have your opinion already.

 

great answer. you've really provided a lot of support for your position.

 

Be reasonable. It wouldn't matter what he or anyone said to you. Your opinion won't ever change. Thanks for keeping an open mind!

 

why should he change his opinion if no one gives him evidence as to why he should do so?

[abuck1220]

Just pointing out that the people who claim minor league stats are predictive are not always correct. The predictability factor is not absolute. If that bothers you, sorry.

 

please provide me with a better predictor of future performance

thanks!

 

Why? Do you think minor league stats can be equated to major league performance absolutely? If so, you have your opinion already.

 

great answer. you've really provided a lot of support for your position.

 

Be reasonable. It wouldn't matter what he or anyone said to you. Your opinion won't ever change. Thanks for keeping an open mind!

 

give me something to keep an open mind about.

 

you're saying that bad minor league players can turn into good major league players...throw some names at me.

[ltb]

Just pointing out that the people who claim minor league stats are predictive are not always correct. The predictability factor is not absolute. If that bothers you, sorry.

 

please provide me with a better predictor of future performance

thanks!

 

Why? Do you think minor league stats can be equated to major league performance absolutely? If so, you have your opinion already.

 

did i say that?

i was asking you for something that will predict a player's major league performance better than his minor league performance.

 

i'm really looking forward to your answer.

[Andy]

Good minor leaguers will occasionally fail at the big league level. It's the same principle that applies to college athletes not always managing to hit the big-time. It's a simple weed-out process.

 

Bad minor leaguers are highly unlikely to suddenly become better players when facing a higher degree of competition. In fact, the only possible way I can see this happening is if a player felt that he was too good to be playing minor league ball and did not give even close to 100 percent effort. And even then I don't see how a player talented enough to believe this wouldn't put up at least decent numbers.

[Jon]

Bad minor leaguers usually don't get shots in the majors.

 

They seem to get some with the Cubs, though. Heck, one turned into a bad major leaguer and received back-to-back multi-year deals from Hendry.

[Flames24Rulz]

I'll never understand why Angel Pagan has so many fans.

 

What is it, the suckiness, the name, or the speed that the 2006 Cubs prided themselves on?

[RichHillIsABeast]

Just pointing out that the people who claim minor league stats are predictive are not always correct. The predictability factor is not absolute. If that bothers you, sorry.

 

please provide me with a better predictor of future performance

thanks!

 

Why? Do you think minor league stats can be equated to major league performance absolutely? If so, you have your opinion already.

 

great answer. you've really provided a lot of support for your position.

 

Be reasonable. It wouldn't matter what he or anyone said to you. Your opinion won't ever change. Thanks for keeping an open mind!

 

give me something to keep an open mind about.

 

you're saying that bad minor league players can turn into good major league players...throw some names at me.

 

No. You added the descriptions "good" and "bad" to this discussion. There are tons of minor leaguers who put up better numbers in the bigs. I never said Pagan was going to be a world burner, just that he'd be a productive ML bench player.

 

Chris Carpenter didn't put up good numbers in AA or AAA. He's one of the best pitchers in baseball and has been for some time now.

 

Robinson Cano, Alfonso Soriano, Jose Reyes

 

Those are all guys who showed ok to great improvement in the bigs compared to their career minor league numbers. No, I don't think Pagan will turn out to be a stud, but a .775 OPS or better bench player with decent SB totals? Sure.

[BigbadB]

Just pointing out that the people who claim minor league stats are predictive are not always correct. The predictability factor is not absolute. If that bothers you, sorry.

 

i agree that some good minor leaguers end up being bad major leaguers.

 

but that sure as hell doesn't mean that bad minor leaguers end up being good major leaguers.

 

I don't think RH was saying Pagan was going to turn into a superstar, I was agreeing that he could be a decent major league player, nothing more. He wasn't a terrible minor league player. I just think he can be a fine 4th or 5th outfielder and may be a short term answer in CF until Pie is ready. He certainly isn't the long term answer, but short term he could be. That's all I'm agreeing with.

 

A 4th outfielder on the Royals or the Rockies, sure. He shouldn't be getting consideration for anything more than the 5th outfielder on a large market team like the Cubs. I actually wouldn't mind him as the 5th outfielder.

 

I certainly don't like the plan if the plan is to let him play CF until Pie is ready. I don't think the Cubs offense can afford to have a no hit CF in combination with a no hit SS and a no hit C when Blanco plays.

 

I can buy into RichHillisaBeast's argument that Pagan has more power. A lot of guys develop more power as they hit their middle 20's. But, it's not a significant increase of power. He won't be an ideal bat off the bench, but he can play multiple outfield positions.

 

He's no Jose Macias.

[Jon]

Pagan hasn't even shown an ability to be an effective base stealer (72.4% in the minors, 66.6% at AAA).

 

He doesn't really offer much of anything special.

[abuck1220]

those guys were all very highly thought of prospects, and any iffy numbers they put up in the minors were when they were playing at levels high for their age. soriano was jacking 40 hrs when he was pagan's age, and reyes and cano are still 2-3 years younger than pagan.

 

pagan is not good. he wasn't good in the bigs last year, he wasn't good in the 2,500 minor league ab's that he had, and he's going to be 26 next season. what leads you to think otherwise?

Edited December 14, 2006 by abuck1220

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Just pointing out that the people who claim minor league stats are predictive are not always correct. The predictability factor is not absolute. If that bothers you, sorry.

 

please provide me with a better predictor of future performance

thanks!

 

Why? Do you think minor league stats can be equated to major league performance absolutely? If so, you have your opinion already.

 

great answer. you've really provided a lot of support for your position.

 

Be reasonable. It wouldn't matter what he or anyone said to you. Your opinion won't ever change. Thanks for keeping an open mind!

 

give me something to keep an open mind about.

 

you're saying that bad minor league players can turn into good major league players...throw some names at me.

 

No. You added the descriptions "good" and "bad" to this discussion. There are tons of minor leaguers who put up better numbers in the bigs. I never said Pagan was going to be a world burner, just that he'd be a productive ML bench player.

 

Chris Carpenter didn't put up good numbers in AA or AAA. He's one of the best pitchers in baseball and has been for some time now.

 

Robinson Cano, Alfonso Soriano, Jose Reyes

 

Those are all guys who showed ok to great improvement in the bigs compared to their career minor league numbers. No, I don't think Pagan will turn out to be a stud, but a .775 OPS or better bench player with decent SB totals? Sure.

 

The problem with the four you listed are that they are all immensly talented players who were thought of highly as prospects because of their tools and skills.

[RichHillIsABeast]

those guys were all very highly thought of prospects, and any iffy numbers they put up in the minors were when they were playing at levels high for their age. soriano was jacking 40 hrs when he was pagan's age, and reyes and cano are still 2-3 years younger than pagan.

 

pagan is not good. he wasn't good in the bigs last year, he wasn't good in the 2,500 minor league ab's that he had, and he's going to be 26 next season. what leads you to think otherwise?

 

Some guys don't figure it out until they get older. Why? I have no clue.

 

Pagan was always thought better of by scouts than he performed (who saw him with more power potential than he showed in the minors). That's why he kept moving up levels, not b/c he actually produced. Kind of like how EPatt got his AAA promotion after putting up mediocre numbers in AA. Someone saw something in his game that merited a promotion. Then he caught fire (obviously EPatt had previous minor league success at lower levels). Guys get promoted because of other things than statistical production.

 

I don't think Pagan is going to be good, but he's shown the ability in flashes to be a very solid bench option. He has power. You can see it in his swing. Fluid, non-uppercut, with decent bat speed. The home runs will come. A lot of guys will never develop that power b/c they put too much backspin on the ball with their golf swings. Pagan doesn't suffer from that. I don't think his ST outburst was a fluke. The 5 HR he hit in 150 AB or so in 2006 wasn't either.

 

Likewise I think Murton will develop more power. You can just tell by the way he swings.

[RichHillIsABeast]

The problem with the four you listed are that they are all immensly talented players who were thought of highly as prospects because of their tools and skills.

 

All I wanted to show is that players can improve in the majors beyond what they produced in the minors.

 

Pagan can do the same, albeit at a much reduced level. The physical tools are there.

 

Who thought highly of those players? The stats community? Nope. Scouts did. And it's the Cubs scouts who targeted Pagan. Scouting has it's flaws, but sometimes they're able to see stuff stats don't predict. All stats do is predict future performance based on past performance, irregardless of the extenuation circumstances. That's a serious blind spot.

 

Scouts have issues too, no doubt. Too much dreaming and not enough actual production in many cases.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

I agree with what you say about scouting and stats - I believe a balance between the two would be the most ideal way to work. And I think Pagan is a servicable 25th man; I don't think his physical tools are that great.

[JC]

I agree with what you say about scouting and stats - I believe a balance between the two would be the most ideal way to work. And I think Pagan is a servicable 25th man; I don't think his physical tools are that great.

 

You're nuts. He hit more major league home runs last year than in all of his other professional years combined. He's a significant horse the Cubs were missing last year during the stretch.