Hendry on Sports Central tonight

[mg420]

It's not an "arbitrary period of time." Players know what is at stake and what they can get if they perform. It's a litmus test for higher pressure situations.

 

Yes, with the pitchers jogging in the outfield, the manager signing autographs, and 1/2 the ball club there I could see how the pressure could get to a kid.

 

Every game I've evered played whether it be a playoff game or beer league softball I've tried my damnedest. I really don't think guys who've played the game their entire life and are getting paid are any different.[/quote]

 

i disagree. i watch some players not run to 1b, catch pop ups with one hand, jog to 2nd when they could have gone all the way to 3rd if they were running hard or dont bother to backup a play and am amazed that they even care about the game. baseball is a business and some of the players are just in it for the $$ and themselves.

[RichHillIsABeast]

Pagan spent 6 years in the minors. That's "doing your time." He never made it to the show, meaning it was an unknown how he'd perform at the ML level. That's all I meant by calling him an "unknown." It's not like he was a career AAAA player.

 

He hit 5 HR in 170 AB. That certainly wasn't a clear expectation from his minor league numbers. I was pleasantly surprised by that.

 

He had a fluke 2 HR game, and other than that he was predictably awful.

 

The more than 1 HR for every 10 AB he hit in ST suggests otherwise.

[goonys evil twin]

Pagan spent 6 years in the minors. That's "doing your time." He never made it to the show, meaning it was an unknown how he'd perform at the ML level. That's all I meant by calling him an "unknown." It's not like he was a career AAAA player.

 

He hit 5 HR in 170 AB. That certainly wasn't a clear expectation from his minor league numbers. I was pleasantly surprised by that.

 

He had a fluke 2 HR game, and other than that he was predictably awful.

 

The more than 1 HR for every 10 AB he hit in ST suggests otherwise.

 

It doesn't suggest a thing. ST stats are meaningless.

[RichHillIsABeast]

It's not an "arbitrary period of time." Players know what is at stake and what they can get if they perform. It's a litmus test for higher pressure situations.

 

Yes, with the pitchers jogging in the outfield, the manager signing autographs, and 1/2 the ball club there I could see how the pressure could get to a kid.

 

Every game I've evered played whether it be a playoff game or beer league softball I've tried my damnedest. I really don't think guys who've played the game their entire life and are getting paid are any different.

 

Players know they are auditioning for a job. You don't get infinite chances in a career. That's pressure.

 

Some guys step it up in pressure situations and others wilt. It's one thing to put up numbers in unstressful minor league games, when it's just a game. It's another when your whole career and all the work you've put in are on the line.

 

Your career is not on the line in spring training. You are grossly overvaluing spring training.

 

If you are a fringe prospect, or career minor leaguer, yes, your chance at the show is on the line. Not everyone is a top prospect. Organizations don't make holes for the likes of Angel Pagan.

 

I'm not overvaluing the importance of ST to players who fight for bench spots.

[RichHillIsABeast]

Pagan spent 6 years in the minors. That's "doing your time." He never made it to the show, meaning it was an unknown how he'd perform at the ML level. That's all I meant by calling him an "unknown." It's not like he was a career AAAA player.

 

He hit 5 HR in 170 AB. That certainly wasn't a clear expectation from his minor league numbers. I was pleasantly surprised by that.

 

He had a fluke 2 HR game, and other than that he was predictably awful.

 

The more than 1 HR for every 10 AB he hit in ST suggests otherwise.

 

It doesn't suggest a thing. ST stats are meaningless.

 

That's your opinion. I disagree.

[RichHillIsABeast]

Pagan by month:

 

April: .263/.263/.316/.579 (19 AB)

May: injured

June: .250/.250/.300/.550 (1 AB)

July: .294/.357/.510/.867 (51 AB)

Aug.: .279/.324/.457/.781 (58 AB)

Sept.: .249/.308/.396/.704 (40 AB)

 

 

Pagan performed just fine apart from his 1st month in the bigs (how many players do the same their first time in the bigs?). 19 ABs shouldn't condemn him. Then he was injured for all of May and most of June.

 

He tore it up in July and did just fine in August. He put up a .700 OPS in September. One bad month (40 AB) after his initial intro to the bigs. Big whoop. Pagan's numbers aren't as bad as some of you are making out.

 

Pagan has great speed, some power, and can field his position. He's not a bad bench option when he's making the league minimum.

[cheapseats]

Pagan's numbers aren't as bad as some of you are making out.

 

.306 .394 .700

 

Pretty bad.

[goonys evil twin]

Pagan by month:

 

April: .263/.263/.316/.579 (19 AB)

May: injured

June: .250/.250/.300/.550 (1 AB)

July: .294/.357/.510/.867 (51 AB)

Aug.: .279/.324/.457/.781 (58 AB)

Sept.: .249/.308/.396/.704 (40 AB)

 

 

Pagan performed just fine apart from his 1st month in the bigs (how many players do the same their first time in the bigs?). 19 ABs shouldn't condemn him. Then he was injured for all of May and most of June.

 

He tore it up in July and did just fine in August. He put up a .700 OPS in September. One bad month (40 AB) after his initial intro to the bigs. Big whoop. Pagan's numbers aren't as bad as some of you are making out.

 

Pagan has great speed, some power, and can field his position. He's not a bad bench option when he's making the league minimum.

 

He had 1 2HR game in July, take that away and he hit .261/.333/.370. I don't like just "taking away" stats for players, but it's not as ridiculous as you eliminating his 3 worst months.

 

Pagan's overall number sucked. Pagan's career has sucked. Pagan will always suck. He had a nice game. He might have a couple more in his career. But his numbers will suck when all is said and done.

[RichHillIsABeast]

Pagan's numbers aren't as bad as some of you are making out.

 

.306 .394 .700

 

Pretty bad.

 

Considering it was his first stint in the bigs? Take out his first month and those stats look a lot better. Pagan did pretty darn well.

 

I'm going to enjoy seeing Angel on the 2007 Cubs roster.

[RichHillIsABeast]

Pagan by month:

 

April: .263/.263/.316/.579 (19 AB)

May: injured

June: .250/.250/.300/.550 (1 AB)

July: .294/.357/.510/.867 (51 AB)

Aug.: .279/.324/.457/.781 (58 AB)

Sept.: .249/.308/.396/.704 (40 AB)

 

 

Pagan performed just fine apart from his 1st month in the bigs (how many players do the same their first time in the bigs?). 19 ABs shouldn't condemn him. Then he was injured for all of May and most of June.

 

He tore it up in July and did just fine in August. He put up a .700 OPS in September. One bad month (40 AB) after his initial intro to the bigs. Big whoop. Pagan's numbers aren't as bad as some of you are making out.

 

Pagan has great speed, some power, and can field his position. He's not a bad bench option when he's making the league minimum.

 

He had 1 2HR game in July, take that away and he hit .261/.333/.370. I don't like just "taking away" stats for players, but it's not as ridiculous as you eliminating his 3 worst months.

 

Pagan's overall number sucked. Pagan's career has sucked. Pagan will always suck. He had a nice game. He might have a couple more in his career. But his numbers will suck when all is said and done.

 

Are you kidding me? April was HIS FIRST MONTH IN THE MAJORS. How many stud prospects suck it up in their first month in the bigs? So many adjustments are being made it's pretty crappy to judge a player's overall worth by the very first ML action he sees.

 

I didn't take away 3 months. I said take away the 1st (April) b/c it was his first few ABs in the bigs. Take away the 1 AB in June b/c it is statistically insignificant (if we're going by month). That is in no way, shape, or form comparable to taking away a couple HR arbitrarily. There are reasons to ignore certain stats. Statistical insight is a great thing. Arbitrary exclusion is bogus reasoning.

[cheapseats]

Pagan's numbers aren't as bad as some of you are making out.

 

.306 .394 .700

 

Pretty bad.

 

Considering it was his first stint in the bigs? Take out his first month and those stats look a lot better. Pagan did pretty darn well.

 

I'm going to enjoy seeing Angel on the 2007 Cubs roster.

 

You can't just arbitrarily take away a period of time and pretend it never happened.

 

.251 .310 .360

 

His ZIPS projection.

 

If you're going to enjoy that, I'm going to guess you also enjoy poking yourself in the eye with sharp objects.

[Soriano12]

 

I'm going to enjoy seeing Angel on the 2007 Cubs roster.

 

Me too, as a reserve.

[RichHillIsABeast]

Pagan's numbers aren't as bad as some of you are making out.

 

.306 .394 .700

 

Pretty bad.

 

Considering it was his first stint in the bigs? Take out his first month and those stats look a lot better. Pagan did pretty darn well.

 

I'm going to enjoy seeing Angel on the 2007 Cubs roster.

 

You can't just arbitrarily take away a period of time and pretend it never happened.

 

.251 .310 .360

 

His ZIPS projection.

 

If you're going to enjoy that, I'm going to guess you also enjoy poking yourself in the eye with sharp objects.

 

ZIPS - the Word of the baseball gods. [/sarcasm]

[CaliforniaRaisin]

I don't get how anyone can hit .250 in 1 AB (Pagan in June). :huh:

 

If you're going to take away his worst month, you should take away his best month - no matter the reason why you're taking away his worst month. That's only fair.

[RichHillIsABeast]

I don't get how anyone can hit .250 in 1 AB (Pagan in June). :huh:

 

If you're going to take away his worst month, you should take away his best month - no matter the reason why you're taking away his worst month. That's only fair.

 

It's only fair? Says who? The reason for discarding the worst month is not b/c it is the worst month. It is b/c it was his first month in the bigs.

 

All I'm doing is ignoring his initial ML action, not throwing out months based on performance.

 

When we talk about Murton do we throw out his one horrible month and his best month when thinking about the numbers he puts up next season? Nope. People tend to look at his 2nd half or just flat out ignore his horrible June as he was "making adjustments" or "Dusty forced free swinging on him." Funny how Murton gets that break from a lot of NSBB posters, but Pagan does not.

[VanceJergins]

I don't get how anyone can hit .250 in 1 AB (Pagan in June). :huh:

 

If you're going to take away his worst month, you should take away his best month - no matter the reason why you're taking away his worst month. That's only fair.

 

It's only fair? Says who? The reason for discarding the worst month is not b/c it is the worst month. It is b/c it was his first month in the bigs.

 

All I'm doing is ignoring his initial ML action, not throwing out months based on performance.

 

When we talk about Murton do we throw out his one horrible month and his best month when thinking about the numbers he puts up next season? Nope. People tend to look at his 2nd half or just flat out ignore his horrible June as he was "making adjustments" or "Dusty forced free swinging on him." Funny how Murton gets that break from a lot of NSBB posters, but Pagan does not.

 

Murton ended up at .297/ .365/ .444/ .809. Those are good final stats, Pagans were not.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

I don't get how anyone can hit .250 in 1 AB (Pagan in June). :huh:

 

If you're going to take away his worst month, you should take away his best month - no matter the reason why you're taking away his worst month. That's only fair.

 

It's only fair? Says who? The reason for discarding the worst month is not b/c it is the worst month. It is b/c it was his first month in the bigs.

 

All I'm doing is ignoring his initial ML action, not throwing out months based on performance.

 

When we talk about Murton do we throw out his one horrible month and his best month when thinking about the numbers he puts up next season? Nope. People tend to look at his 2nd half or just flat out ignore his horrible June as he was "making adjustments" or "Dusty forced free swinging on him." Funny how Murton gets that break from a lot of NSBB posters, but Pagan does not.

 

I actually don't ignore Murton's June or just pay attention to his second half.

 

I don't see the purpose of throwing out 1/8 of his ABs when he has so few ABs itself, it limits an already limited pool of evaluation.

 

The reason Murton gets a break from posters and Pagan doesn't? Better minor league stats, better major league stats, better season last year, more PAs so we can better judge his ability.

[abuck1220]

 

I think it's silly too, but that's the philosophy of a lot of organizations. Sing didn't do his time in the minors like Pagan and other did. Sing probably didn't have the scouts saying he was ready. You have to be "ready" and put out. Having the necessary qualities your ballclub is seeking is important (Pagan got the edge b/c Dusty/Hendry were high on speed at the time). Die-Hard didn't have that edge and really doesn't project to get it done at the ML level. Pagan was an unknown.

 

wow. how can pagan be said to have "done his time" in the minors yet still be considered an unknown? he had 2500 mediocre at best minor league ab's...i think it was pretty clear what he brought to the table (not much).

 

Pagan spent 6 years in the minors. That's "doing your time." He never made it to the show, meaning it was an unknown how he'd perform at the ML level. That's all I meant by calling him an "unknown."

 

actually a guy's minor league numbers can be a pretty good indicator of what type of major league player he'll be. he was quite "known". and what a surprise...pagan's big league numbers were right in line with his career minor league numbers...terrible.

[RichHillIsABeast]

 

I think it's silly too, but that's the philosophy of a lot of organizations. Sing didn't do his time in the minors like Pagan and other did. Sing probably didn't have the scouts saying he was ready. You have to be "ready" and put out. Having the necessary qualities your ballclub is seeking is important (Pagan got the edge b/c Dusty/Hendry were high on speed at the time). Die-Hard didn't have that edge and really doesn't project to get it done at the ML level. Pagan was an unknown.

 

wow. how can pagan be said to have "done his time" in the minors yet still be considered an unknown? he had 2500 mediocre at best minor league ab's...i think it was pretty clear what he brought to the table (not much).

 

Pagan spent 6 years in the minors. That's "doing your time." He never made it to the show, meaning it was an unknown how he'd perform at the ML level. That's all I meant by calling him an "unknown."

 

actually a guy's minor league numbers can be a pretty good indicator of what type of major league player he'll be. he was quite "known". and what a surprise...pagan's big league numbers were right in line with his career minor league numbers...terrible.

 

Yes, they can be a pretty good indicator, but they're not the ultimate say on what a player will do. Minor league do not always translate. Would you like me to list the myriad examples of this? There are tons of players who can rip apart the minors but can't get it done in the majors. Likewise there are some players that aren't world burners in the minors who can contribute at the ML level. Pagan is one of those, IMO. Sorry I don't have a stat to show that.

[RichHillIsABeast]

I don't get how anyone can hit .250 in 1 AB (Pagan in June). :huh:

 

If you're going to take away his worst month, you should take away his best month - no matter the reason why you're taking away his worst month. That's only fair.

 

It's only fair? Says who? The reason for discarding the worst month is not b/c it is the worst month. It is b/c it was his first month in the bigs.

 

All I'm doing is ignoring his initial ML action, not throwing out months based on performance.

 

When we talk about Murton do we throw out his one horrible month and his best month when thinking about the numbers he puts up next season? Nope. People tend to look at his 2nd half or just flat out ignore his horrible June as he was "making adjustments" or "Dusty forced free swinging on him." Funny how Murton gets that break from a lot of NSBB posters, but Pagan does not.

 

I actually don't ignore Murton's June or just pay attention to his second half.

 

I don't see the purpose of throwing out 1/8 of his ABs when he has so few ABs itself, it limits an already limited pool of evaluation.

 

The reason Murton gets a break from posters and Pagan doesn't? Better minor league stats, better major league stats, better season last year, more PAs so we can better judge his ability.

 

Sorry about that, Raisin. I didn't mean to suggest that you characterized Murton's play that way, just that a certain method of reasoning was used on a board favorite and denied one of the lesser players.

 

Murton shouldn't get a break b/c he is better than Pagan (in evaluating his stats). We should use the same reasoning when evaluating each player. I don't care if Murton or Pagan slump early on in their ML careers as it is an adjustment stage. Why can't people view Pagan's 2006 as a breaking in period? Because he doesn't have a minor league record of mashing the ball? The Cubs scouts seem to really like the kid and they've been right before where the stats community was down on a player (Jacque Jones for example).

 

Scouting and stats are both imperfect methods and some solid players are picked up by one side and not the other. I think Pagan falls into the category where the scouts will find a decent ML bench player (and fringe OF starter) where the stats guys see a career minor leaguer.

[abuck1220]

Yes, they can be a pretty good indicator, but they're not the ultimate say on what a player will do. Minor league do not always translate. Would you like me to list the myriad examples of this? There are tons of players who can rip apart the minors but can't get it done in the majors. Likewise there are some players that aren't world burners in the minors who can contribute at the ML level.

 

i would love to see a list of guys who had a .700 career minor league OPS and ended up being decent big league players. please do list the myriad examples of this.

 

Pagan is one of those, IMO. Sorry I don't have a stat to show that.

 

i have a stat to show that he's not.

 

career minor league OPS (2,500+ PA's): .705

career major league OPS: .701

 

funny how that works out.

[RichHillIsABeast]

Yes, they can be a pretty good indicator, but they're not the ultimate say on what a player will do. Minor league do not always translate. Would you like me to list the myriad examples of this? There are tons of players who can rip apart the minors but can't get it done in the majors. Likewise there are some players that aren't world burners in the minors who can contribute at the ML level.

 

i would love to see a list of guys who had a .700 career minor league OPS and ended up being decent big league players. please do list the myriad examples of this.

 

Pagan is one of those, IMO. Sorry I don't have a stat to show that.

 

i have a stat to show that he's not.

 

career minor league OPS (2,500+ PA's): .705

career major league OPS: .701

 

funny how that works out.

 

It's pretty frustrating when you intentionally misread what I write and regurgitate what I didn't say so you can attempt to prove your point to yourself.

 

I said there are a myriad examples of players who had minor league numbers that didn't translate, not .700 OPS guys who ended up being decent big league players.

 

I pointed out that there are ballplayers who the stats guys find that scouts don't and ballplayers that scouts find that stats guys don't. Pagan is an example of this, IMO. Why on earth would Pagan's minor and major league stats be a counter to this argument?

[oldcubsfan]

 

I think it's silly too, but that's the philosophy of a lot of organizations. Sing didn't do his time in the minors like Pagan and other did. Sing probably didn't have the scouts saying he was ready. You have to be "ready" and put out. Having the necessary qualities your ballclub is seeking is important (Pagan got the edge b/c Dusty/Hendry were high on speed at the time). Die-Hard didn't have that edge and really doesn't project to get it done at the ML level. Pagan was an unknown.

 

wow. how can pagan be said to have "done his time" in the minors yet still be considered an unknown? he had 2500 mediocre at best minor league ab's...i think it was pretty clear what he brought to the table (not much).

 

Pagan spent 6 years in the minors. That's "doing your time." He never made it to the show, meaning it was an unknown how he'd perform at the ML level. That's all I meant by calling him an "unknown."

 

actually a guy's minor league numbers can be a pretty good indicator of what type of major league player he'll be. he was quite "known". and what a surprise...pagan's big league numbers were right in line with his career minor league numbers...terrible.

 

Yes, they can be a pretty good indicator, but they're not the ultimate say on what a player will do. Minor league do not always translate. Would you like me to list the myriad examples of this? There are tons of players who can rip apart the minors but can't get it done in the majors. Likewise there are some players that aren't world burners in the minors who can contribute at the ML level. Pagan is one of those, IMO. Sorry I don't have a stat to show that.

I tend to agree with you. Here's two recent guys with awesome minor league numbers but can't hit major league pitching-DuBois and Restovich. Great fastball hitters, but the old curve kills them.

[CubinNY]

 

I think it's silly too, but that's the philosophy of a lot of organizations. Sing didn't do his time in the minors like Pagan and other did. Sing probably didn't have the scouts saying he was ready. You have to be "ready" and put out. Having the necessary qualities your ballclub is seeking is important (Pagan got the edge b/c Dusty/Hendry were high on speed at the time). Die-Hard didn't have that edge and really doesn't project to get it done at the ML level. Pagan was an unknown.

 

wow. how can pagan be said to have "done his time" in the minors yet still be considered an unknown? he had 2500 mediocre at best minor league ab's...i think it was pretty clear what he brought to the table (not much).

 

Pagan spent 6 years in the minors. That's "doing your time." He never made it to the show, meaning it was an unknown how he'd perform at the ML level. That's all I meant by calling him an "unknown."

 

actually a guy's minor league numbers can be a pretty good indicator of what type of major league player he'll be. he was quite "known". and what a surprise...pagan's big league numbers were right in line with his career minor league numbers...terrible.

 

Yes, they can be a pretty good indicator, but they're not the ultimate say on what a player will do. Minor league do not always translate. Would you like me to list the myriad examples of this? There are tons of players who can rip apart the minors but can't get it done in the majors. Likewise there are some players that aren't world burners in the minors who can contribute at the ML level. Pagan is one of those, IMO. Sorry I don't have a stat to show that.

I tend to agree with you. Here's two recent guys with awesome minor league numbers but can't hit major league pitching-DuBois and Restovich. Great fastball hitters, but the old curve kills them.

 

And exactly how does this support his argument? Pagan had crappy numbers in the minors.

 

Are people supposed to think he's going to be even a decent bench player becuase some players who have good numbers in the minors don't in the majors when he's had bad numbers in the minors too?

 

It doesn't logically follow.

 

The Cubs bought his contract for like $10,000 from the Mets.

[abuck1220]

Yes, they can be a pretty good indicator, but they're not the ultimate say on what a player will do. Minor league do not always translate. Would you like me to list the myriad examples of this? There are tons of players who can rip apart the minors but can't get it done in the majors. Likewise there are some players that aren't world burners in the minors who can contribute at the ML level.

 

i would love to see a list of guys who had a .700 career minor league OPS and ended up being decent big league players. please do list the myriad examples of this.

 

Pagan is one of those, IMO. Sorry I don't have a stat to show that.

 

i have a stat to show that he's not.

 

career minor league OPS (2,500+ PA's): .705

career major league OPS: .701

 

funny how that works out.

 

It's pretty frustrating when you intentionally misread what I write and regurgitate what I didn't say so you can attempt to prove your point to yourself.

 

I said there are a myriad examples of players who had minor league numbers that didn't translate, not .700 OPS guys who ended up being decent big league players.

 

I pointed out that there are ballplayers who the stats guys find that scouts don't and ballplayers that scouts find that stats guys don't. Pagan is an example of this, IMO. Why on earth would Pagan's minor and major league stats be a counter to this argument?

 

BECAUSE THEY SUCK AND SO DOES HE.

 

your argument is that pagan is some kind of diamond in the rough who had bad/mediocre minor league stats, but the scouts found him anyway and now he's a contributor. except he's not. to make your argument, pagan would have to actually be, you know, good.