How Do the Hot-Starting 2026 Cubs Match Up with the 2016 Version?

As they begin a new week, the Chicago Cubs sit at 27-14, leading the NL Central by 3.5 games. Only the team from the suburbs northwest of Atlanta has a better record. The devastating pitching injury news keeps on coming—last week, 2025 All-Star Matthew Boyd hit the injured list for the second time this season. Despite that, the Cubs are in the midst of a 15-game winning streak at home, and are 8-2 in their last 10 games. This season marks the first time since 2016 that the Cubs are at least 10 games over .500 this early in the season.

That's not to say that the 2026 Cubs are on the path to a similar destiny; these are different rosters with varying strengths and weaknesses. Nonetheless, fans are feeling good about this team that finds ways to win while starring down injuries. Here we are going to go position by position, comparing how the starters have fared through the first quarter of the season. (For what it's worth, those Cubs were 29-12 at this same juncture.)

Catcher

• 2016: Miguel Montero/David Ross
• 2026: Carson Kelly/ Miguel Amaya

Before (and after) Willson Contreras held down the position from 2017-2022, the Cubs favored the tandem catcher approach. Montero was penciled in as the starter, but the 39-year-old Ross found himself starting over a third of the team’s games due to his chemistry with the veteran starters and Montero's brutal follow-up to what had been a very strong 2015 campaign.

Although Montero hit the team’s first home run of the season, he was largely a non-factor at the plate, hitting .208 with four extra base hits through May 6. Ross was hitting a little bit better, but the two of them together had a combined FanGraphs WAR of 0.7. Ten years later, Carson Kelly’s breakout 2025 is carrying over tolerably well into 2026. Even after going 0-for-Arlington, he's hitting .283/.377/.384 on the campaign. Amaya got off to s slower start, but he's thrived in lighter duty and is now hitting .228/.371/.351. This year's group is certainly out-hitting the 2016 duo, though Ross and Montero were better behind the plate.

First Base

• 2016: Anthony Rizzo
• 2026: Michael Busch

Anthony Rizzo loved life in the middle of a high-octane lineup to start 2016. Through 41 games (a point that came 10 days later that year than this year), he was batting .245/.382/.536, with 11 home runs, 34 RBIs and more walks than strikeouts. This was Peak Rizzo: a Gold Glover, a Silver Slugger, a multi-time All-Star and the heartbeat of the team.

Fast-forward to today, and the Cubs have their most prolific first baseman since Rizzo in Michael Busch, but he has not yet found his footing completely. The rust is shaking off nicely as the weather warms, and Busch is now batting .238/.349/.367, but Rizzo was obviously a better player that year than Busch is, at least right now.

Second Base

• 2016: Ben Zobrist
• 2026: Nico Hoerner

Fresh off a 2015 World Series MVP award with the Royals, Zobrist signed a four-year deal as a veteran complement to the Cubs' young offensive core. He was the primary second baseman early in the 2016 season, although he did log nearly 190 innings in the outfield, as needs arose. He hit the ground running for his new team, and the 40-game mark found him flirting with a 1.000 OPS. He wasn't a dazzling defender, but he was good enough.

When the first pitch of 2026 was thrown, Nico Hoerner was entering a contract year. By the time the second game of the season started, he had agreed to a six-year extension. Through May 10, Hoerner is showing why he was deserving of this deal. His defense is exceptional, and even mired in a 3-for-22 slump, he's currently hitting .278/.351/.426, with plus baserunning, to boot. This is the first position where one can make a strong case for the 2026 Cubs to top the 2016 crew, so let's give them the nod.

Third Base

• 2016: Kris Bryant
• 2026: Alex Bregman

Here's a question that can sound fun or cursed, depending on your mood: When Bregman's time in Chicago is over, whose impact will have been greater? Bryant ascended from being a top draft choice to the status of the sport's top prospect. He won a Rookie of the Year Award and an MVP Award for the Cubs, and was instrumental in their winning the World Series. Thereafter, though, his career was often disrupted by injuries. Bregman is already past his peak, but is he past his prime—or is this just a standard-issue slow start from a veteran whom you can trust to get untracked any minute? Either way, Bryant then was a much better player than Bregman now, but the skills and the gravitas of the veteran at this moment give him a chance to carve a legacy just as rich as Bryant's before he's done as a Cub.

Shortstop

• 2016: Addison Russell
• 2026: Dansby Swanson

I am tempted to just call this for Swanson and move on, but Russell was another bright spot for the 2016 Cubs. He would end up having an All-Star season and some huge playoff moments, but he started off slowly in April. His .225/.352/.337 slash line does not jump off the page, but as a staple in the bottom of the lineup, he was not counted on to carry much of the offense. His defense was dazzling, though a bit unconventional at times. What he did off the field forever stains his place in the team's history, but he was a linchpin of (arguably) the best defense in baseball history.

Swanson is off to a peculiar start to 2026. He's only batting .201, but he's shown power, and he's walking enough to keep his OBP respectable, at .313. Russell was a better defender, but on intangibles on and off the field, it's fair to say Swanson is a better contributor to wins right now than Russell was even then.

Left Field

• 2016: Various
• 2026: Ian Happ

When Kyle Schwarber collided with Dexter Fowler in the first week of the season, the 2016 Cubs' plans for left field were scuppered. That was the Cade Horton injury of the 2016 club. Jorge Soler started 51 games at the position, which led the team, but Bryant made 36 starts there as well, with Willson Contreras and Chris Coghlan also starting over 20 games each. Bryant was the best player who played left in 2016, but none of the players mentioned got off to as hot a start as Ian Happ is having right now. He leads the Cubs with nine homers, and is on pace to surpass his career high of 25. He's also walking at a very high rate, adjusting as well as anyone to the ABS system and the smaller zone that comes with it. The 31-year-old is entering a contract year, and is certainly performing well enough to earn a multi-year deal, but it remains to be seen if the Cubs will be the ones offering it to him. The longest-tenured Chicago athlete gives the 2026 Cubs the advantage in left over the rotation of solid players that Joe Maddon used in 2016, though to be fair, Maddon was scrambling a bit—and he got to backfill a lot of the playing time he gave to others in left by slotting Javier Báez into the lineup.

Center Field

• 2016: Dexter Fowler
• 2026: Pete Crow-Armstrong

Fowler had been a dynamic leadoff man for the 2015 Cubs, but looked poised to leave via free agency—until, suddenly, he showed up at Cubs camp after all. He then got off to a much better start than he'd enjoyed in his first year on the North Side; mid-May found him batting .324/.445/.547. Maddon rightly dubbed him the catalyst of the offense, and he kept their engine firing until more of the sparks caught and his teammates heated up come summer.

In the present, Crow-Armstrong is the most exciting center fielder in baseball, but the jury is still out on what kind of hitter he will be. He has one of the lowest walk percentages on the team, and he's pairing it with one of the highest strikeout percentages. He still has the speed to steal bases and stretch hits into extra bases, but he hasn't put that on full display this year. After a Reds series in which he was the game-breaking force the Cubs so often benefited from last season, maybe his bat is warming up in its own right. Either way, his elite defense makes him valuable—but that 2016 version of Fowler was a more complete player.

Right Field

• 2016: Jason Heyward
• 2026: Seiya Suzuki 

The top outfielder on the market joined the Cubs on an eight-year prior to 2016, famously taking less money than he was offered by the Nationals. The recipient of the largest free-agent contract in Cubs history struggled to hit throughout the seven seasons he played in Chicago, and was granted his release before the eighth year. If you want to believe the players, it was Heyward’s rally cry during the Game 7 rain delay that ignited the Cubs offense en route to the World Series win, but there sadly isn’t a “speeches given” section on the back of his baseball card. Heyward struggled immediately in 2016, posting a .581 OPS through early May, redeemed only by the respect of his teammates and his sparkling play in right field.

Heyward will always have the defensive chops that Suzuki lacks, but Suzuki is a middle of the order hitter who has done nothing but hit since his return from the IL. In 27 games, he’s slashing .293/.403/.535 with 7 homers, anchoring the middle of a lineup that has not gotten much from Crow-Armstrong, Busch, or Bregman yet. Suzuki turned into one of the better hitters in baseball last season, after being more good than great in his first three MLB seasons. Like Happ, the 31-year-old is in a contract year, and could see another large payday if he continues to be a dependable middle-of-the-order bat. The Suzuki over Heyward choice is one of the easiest on this list.

Utility

• 2016: Javier Báez
• 2026: Matt Shaw

Since there was no DH in the NL 10 years ago (and Báez had to make this list somewhere), let's compare him to Shaw as a utility player. Before taking the everyday shortstop job, Báez bounced around the infield in 2016. He played over 300 innings at second and third base, nearly 200 at shortstop, and a few more innings in left field and first base. The 23-year-old had a walkoff home run on Mothers Day, although he fell into a slump thereafter and had just a .277 OBP through 41 Cubs games. He was already showing the ability to make a huge impact defensively.

This isn’t a dig on Shaw, as he has seemed to turn a corner with the bat this season while handling multiple positions. After a mixed bag of results in 2025, he is hitting .271 with a .755 OPS this season. The underlying metrics suggest Shaw has made improvements to his hit tool and that should become more apparent as the season goes on, but at this point, the edge is still going to Baez.

Starting Rotation

• 2016: Jon Lester, Jake Arrieta, John Lackey, Kyle Hendricks, Jason Hammel
• 2026: Shota Imanaga, Edward Cabrera, Colin Rea, Jameson Taillon, Ben Brown/Javier Assad

The aspect that sets the 2016 team apart from the 2026 team is the starting pitching. Currently, the rotation has some bright spots and some not-so-bright spots. A healthy Imanaga is leading the bunch, with a 2.28 ERA over eight starts and a high strikeout rate to go with restored velocity. Imanaga always seems to start the season hot, so right now, he is the Cubs’ best starter. Trade addition Edward Cabrera has been as good as advertised, at times—but we've also seen what it looks like when his strange changeup-first arsenal isn't in sync. Colin Rea is back in the rotation due to the Cade Horton injury and has been a solid back-end contributor. Jameson Taillon and Matthew Boyd (who is now hurt again) have not been as sharp as they were last season, though.

It’s really unfair to compare the current bunch to their 2016 counterparts, who were one of the most dominant single-season Cubs rotations ever. Lester and Hendricks finished second and third in the NL Cy Young Award voting, with Arrieta also getting support after winning the prize the previous year. Arrieta had already thrown a no-hitter by this time that year. The magnitude of difference here is much larger than between, say, Fowler and Crow-Armstrong or the respective catcher tandems.

Closer/Bullpen

• 2016: Héctor Rondón
• 2026: Daniel Palencia

Led by Rondón and fellow righty Pedro Strop, the 2016 Cubs pen got off to a hot start. Like any contender, they sought to reinforce that group as the summer wore on, but they had depth and high-velocity strikeout options in that group even in April and May.

The 2026 bullpen needs reinforcements now, as all of their high-leverage arms outside of Hoby Milner and Brown have spent time on the IL. Current closer and WBC champion Daniel Palencia is a more electric arm than Rondón, but at least Rondón was healthy. There are glimpses of hope for breakout years from just enough guys, but right now, it's easy to pick this part of the 2016 pitching staff over the 2026 version, too.

The Verdict

• C; Carson Kelly/Miguel Amaya
• 1B: Anthony Rizzo
• 2B: Nico Hoerner
• 3B: Kris Bryant
• SS: Dansby Swanson
• LF: Ian Happ
• CF: Dexter Fowler
• RF: Seiya Suzuki
• UTL: Javier Báez
• Rotation: 2016
• Bullpen: 2016

In 11 categories, the 2016 Cubs have the advantage in six of them, making this a bit closer of a race than some might have thought. On the other hand, some of the 2016 group's advantages are much greater than those for the 2026 team. This group also doesn't have a farm system likely to yield either a Contreras-caliber midseason boost or a trade package like the one that brought the team Aroldis Chapman in 2016.

These are two very different teams, and the game has changed immensely over the past decade, so this is not to say the 2026 team can’t experience the same fate. They are the hottest team in baseball right now, and are still finding ways to win despite their injuries. It will be a fun summer in Chicago, but there probably won’t ever be a Cubs team like the one we saw 10 years ago.