C. Lee to Astros - 6 years/$100 M

[Banedon]

For approximately the same average annual value, the Cubs got the better of this deal with Soriano, instead of CLee.

 

I guess that's obvious. Duh.

 

Well the difference is, of course, that we'll have Soriano for 2 years more than the Astros will have C Lee. If they both produce like this for 4 more years, well then the Astros only have 2 decline years to deal with, while we have 4. Of course, if we can win a World Series in those productive years, I'll manage to get over it.

[nilodnayr]

as for lee's contract: 4 year no trade clause per espn radio(xm). so he'll not be a DH for awhile anyway.

 

as for the cubs: we need a couple pitchers, and i'm set for opening day!

 

I believe he'll have limited no trade protection for the last 2 years, although after the 5th year he'll be a 10/5 and will have the right to veto any deal. So basically there is a one year trading window where he has limited protection.

[RockTheIvy]

Watch he'll have that Richard Hidalgo year. This does make the Soriano deal look a lot better though.

[nilodnayr]

Carlos Lee's OPS+ for the last three years

 

125

110

123

 

Sorianos OPS+ for the last three years

 

132

110

98

 

Fan Graph Comparison

[jjgman21]

Carlos Lee's OPS+ for the last three years

 

125

110

123

 

Sorianos OPS+ for the last three years

 

132

110

98

 

Fan Graph Comparison

 

what is your point?

 

how about this

 

Lee

04 OPS 125, IsoD 61

05 OPS 110, IsoD 59

06 OPS 125, IsoD 55

 

Soriano

04 OPS 98, IsoD 44

05 OPS 110, IsoD 41

06 OPS 135, IsoD 74 (go ahead and take away the IBBs, it's still a vast improvement in an area Lee is getting worse at)

 

not sure why K/BB ratio is in the discussion. we're not talking about pitchers and I thought the general view was strikeouts are not a strong consideration amongst those with the sabr mindset.

[nilodnayr]

Carlos Lee's OPS+ for the last three years

 

125

110

123

 

Sorianos OPS+ for the last three years

 

132

110

98

 

Fan Graph Comparison

 

what is your point?

 

how about this

 

Lee

04 OPS 125, IsoD 61

05 OPS 110, IsoD 59

06 OPS 125, IsoD 55

 

Soriano

04 OPS 98, IsoD 44

05 OPS 110, IsoD 41

06 OPS 135, IsoD 74 (go ahead and take away the IBBs, it's still a vast improvement in an area Lee is getting worse at)

 

not sure why K/BB ratio is in the discussion. we're not talking about pitchers and I thought the general view was strikeouts are not a strong consideration amongst those with the sabr mindset.

 

Just presenting the facts that Soriano and Lees production is a lot more similar than people think. The K/BB tab on the comparison was just random, I was scrolling through all of them looking at the differences.

 

I really don't get your point though. So you are saying that Soriano had one fluke patience year because he was hitting in front of Felipe Lopez/Jose Vidro/Royce Clayton and Nick Johnson/Jose Vidro? If you do isolate out his IBB from 16 to his normal 5 or so, then that takes his IsoD down 10 points give or take a few. So on the whole you are saying that his patience is worse than Lee's, right?

[CaliforniaRaisin]

He hits the Cubs well (who doesn't?) and he'll like playing his home games at the Juice Box, but after about 3-4 years, that contract isn't going to be pleasant. And he'll need to be DHing by then.

Same could be said for Soriano?

 

Definitely. But I don't think Soriano will be a tub of lard in four years :)

[ToupeeOnFire]

He hits the Cubs well (who doesn't?) and he'll like playing his home games at the Juice Box, but after about 3-4 years, that contract isn't going to be pleasant. And he'll need to be DHing by then.

Same could be said for Soriano?

 

Definitely. But I don't think Soriano will be a tub of lard in four years :)

Excactly. I would bet on a lean, trim, athletic Soriano aging better than a tubby Carlos Lee.

[JC]

He hits the Cubs well (who doesn't?) and he'll like playing his home games at the Juice Box, but after about 3-4 years, that contract isn't going to be pleasant. And he'll need to be DHing by then.

Same could be said for Soriano?

 

Definitely. But I don't think Soriano will be a tub of lard in four years :)

 

My wife also once thought fit 30 year olds couldn't turn into tubs of lard in four years.

 

Jokes on her...

[Abe Frohman]

I love the matchup of Carlos Zambrano against Carlos Lee. It is always interesting.

[RynoRules]

For approximately the same average annual value, the Cubs got the better of this deal with Soriano, instead of CLee.

 

I guess that's obvious. Duh.

 

Well the difference is, of course, that we'll have Soriano for 2 years more than the Astros will have C Lee. If they both produce like this for 4 more years, well then the Astros only have 2 decline years to deal with, while we have 4. Of course, if we can win a World Series in those productive years, I'll manage to get over it.

 

I should also think that Soriano's skills will decline less steeply, if only b/c he appears to keep himself in better shape than Lee.

[nilodnayr]

For approximately the same average annual value, the Cubs got the better of this deal with Soriano, instead of CLee.

 

I guess that's obvious. Duh.

 

Well the difference is, of course, that we'll have Soriano for 2 years more than the Astros will have C Lee. If they both produce like this for 4 more years, well then the Astros only have 2 decline years to deal with, while we have 4. Of course, if we can win a World Series in those productive years, I'll manage to get over it.

 

I should also think that Soriano's skills will decline less steeply, if only b/c he appears to keep himself in better shape than Lee.

 

However, conversely, Soriano depends on speed for his game, which obviously declines with age, whereas Lee does not.

[A New Era]

i really have no qualms about the cubs spending money. its not my money. i just couldnt go into yet another season with absolutely no hope. now there is atleast some hope that if lee, ramirez, and soriano are healthy we'll be decent. another 66-win season and nobody in this world could talk me off the ledge.

 

I agree...Atleast we know there is no way in hell we can be as bad as last season...Im a surprised with all Hendry has done so far, and its only a day after thanksgiving..There will be plenty more to come,especially around the winter meetings...Only if Jason Schmidt accepts the 3 year/45 mil contract Hendry offered him...Id prolly cry then I dont know what..

 

What, where?

[killthegoat06]

i really have no qualms about the cubs spending money. its not my money. i just couldnt go into yet another season with absolutely no hope. now there is atleast some hope that if lee, ramirez, and soriano are healthy we'll be decent. another 66-win season and nobody in this world could talk me off the ledge.

 

I agree...Atleast we know there is no way in hell we can be as bad as last season...Im a surprised with all Hendry has done so far, and its only a day after thanksgiving..There will be plenty more to come,especially around the winter meetings...Only if Jason Schmidt accepts the 3 year/45 mil contract Hendry offered him...Id prolly cry then I dont know what..

 

What, where?

 

chicagocubsonline.com said Bruce Levine reported this offer Monday or Tuesday (I can't remember). Other forums picked it up and we discussed it in the Schmidt thread. Seeing as nobody else has reported it in the last few days, it is probably bogus ....darn :cry:

[jjgman21]

 

I really don't get your point though. So you are saying that Soriano had one fluke patience year because he was hitting in front of Felipe Lopez/Jose Vidro/Royce Clayton and Nick Johnson/Jose Vidro? If you do isolate out his IBB from 16 to his normal 5 or so, then that takes his IsoD down 10 points give or take a few. So on the whole you are saying that his patience is worse than Lee's, right?

 

I had not point. I was just responding to a post that had no point with another post that had no point. now that you gave the context of what you were trying to say, I my post has negative point.

[jjgman21]

For approximately the same average annual value, the Cubs got the better of this deal with Soriano, instead of CLee.

 

I guess that's obvious. Duh.

 

Well the difference is, of course, that we'll have Soriano for 2 years more than the Astros will have C Lee. If they both produce like this for 4 more years, well then the Astros only have 2 decline years to deal with, while we have 4. Of course, if we can win a World Series in those productive years, I'll manage to get over it.

 

I should also think that Soriano's skills will decline less steeply, if only b/c he appears to keep himself in better shape than Lee.

 

However, conversely, Soriano depends on speed for his game, which obviously declines with age, whereas Lee does not.

 

I don't get this at all. you just posted a point that the two players are similar, making no reference to speed whatsoever. now the point of speed comes up and Soriano's game is based on speed?

 

was Soriano's speed relevant in the 46 times he could have walked around the bases last year?

[Soriano12]

This contract makes me feel better about the Soriano deal.

[UK1679666180]

For approximately the same average annual value, the Cubs got the better of this deal with Soriano, instead of CLee.

 

I guess that's obvious. Duh.

 

Well the difference is, of course, that we'll have Soriano for 2 years more than the Astros will have C Lee. If they both produce like this for 4 more years, well then the Astros only have 2 decline years to deal with, while we have 4. Of course, if we can win a World Series in those productive years, I'll manage to get over it.

 

I should also think that Soriano's skills will decline less steeply, if only b/c he appears to keep himself in better shape than Lee.

 

However, conversely, Soriano depends on speed for his game, which obviously declines with age, whereas Lee does not.

 

I don't get this at all. you just posted a point that the two players are similar, making no reference to speed whatsoever. now the point of speed comes up and Soriano's game is based on speed?

 

was Soriano's speed relevant in the 46 times he could have walked around the bases last year?

 

More depends on his bat speed moreso than his running speed.

 

Obviously, his running speed separates himself from similar production players but depending on what you expect from him, his power w/out the speed should be suffice.

[Soul]

Stros had to make this move. They were in danger of being routed to the bottom of the division. Signing Lee keeps them relevant. It's a good signing for them. I was hoping Carlos would go back to the AL.

[wolf stansson]

I don't know if this has been mentioned or not, but I have heard that his no-trade clause is for the first three years of his deal only. After that they can trade him. I don't know if this has been confirmed yet though.

[UMFan83]

Carlos Lee's OPS+ for the last three years

 

125

110

123

 

Sorianos OPS+ for the last three years

 

132

110

98

 

Fan Graph Comparison

 

what is your point?

 

how about this

 

Lee

04 OPS 125, IsoD 61

05 OPS 110, IsoD 59

06 OPS 125, IsoD 55

 

Soriano

04 OPS 98, IsoD 44

05 OPS 110, IsoD 41

06 OPS 135, IsoD 74 (go ahead and take away the IBBs, it's still a vast improvement in an area Lee is getting worse at)

 

not sure why K/BB ratio is in the discussion. we're not talking about pitchers and I thought the general view was strikeouts are not a strong consideration amongst those with the sabr mindset.

 

Just presenting the facts that Soriano and Lees production is a lot more similar than people think. The K/BB tab on the comparison was just random, I was scrolling through all of them looking at the differences.

 

I really don't get your point though. So you are saying that Soriano had one fluke patience year because he was hitting in front of Felipe Lopez/Jose Vidro/Royce Clayton and Nick Johnson/Jose Vidro? If you do isolate out his IBB from 16 to his normal 5 or so, then that takes his IsoD down 10 points give or take a few. So on the whole you are saying that his patience is worse than Lee's, right?

 

2006:

Lee - 27.2 VORP

Soriano - 48.2 VORP

 

2005:

Lee - 24.7 VORP

Soriano - 39.5 VORP

 

Soriano is vastly superior

[CubinNY]

Wow.

[treebird]

Carlos Lee's OPS+ for the last three years

 

125

110

123

 

Sorianos OPS+ for the last three years

 

132

110

98

 

Fan Graph Comparison

 

what is your point?

 

how about this

 

Lee

04 OPS 125, IsoD 61

05 OPS 110, IsoD 59

06 OPS 125, IsoD 55

 

Soriano

04 OPS 98, IsoD 44

05 OPS 110, IsoD 41

06 OPS 135, IsoD 74 (go ahead and take away the IBBs, it's still a vast improvement in an area Lee is getting worse at)

 

not sure why K/BB ratio is in the discussion. we're not talking about pitchers and I thought the general view was strikeouts are not a strong consideration amongst those with the sabr mindset.

 

Just presenting the facts that Soriano and Lees production is a lot more similar than people think. The K/BB tab on the comparison was just random, I was scrolling through all of them looking at the differences.

 

I really don't get your point though. So you are saying that Soriano had one fluke patience year because he was hitting in front of Felipe Lopez/Jose Vidro/Royce Clayton and Nick Johnson/Jose Vidro? If you do isolate out his IBB from 16 to his normal 5 or so, then that takes his IsoD down 10 points give or take a few. So on the whole you are saying that his patience is worse than Lee's, right?

 

2006:

Lee - 27.2 VORP

Soriano - 48.2 VORP

 

2005:

Lee - 24.7 VORP

Soriano - 39.5 VORP

 

Soriano is vastly superior

 

your numbers for 2006 are wrong. bp has carlos lee split into two different players since he changed teams in midseason. lee as a brewer had 27.2 vorp, and lee as a ranger had 20.0 vorp, giving him a total of 47.2 vorp, making him very comparable to soriano.

 

also, wasn't soriano playing second base in 2005? that would make it kind of hard to compare their vorp's for that year since they are no longer playing different positions.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

I'm always out of pocket when the big deals hit.

[Shilzzz]

Carlos Lee's OPS+ for the last three years

 

125

110

123

 

Sorianos OPS+ for the last three years

 

132

110

98

 

Fan Graph Comparison

 

what is your point?

 

how about this

 

Lee

04 OPS 125, IsoD 61

05 OPS 110, IsoD 59

06 OPS 125, IsoD 55

 

Soriano

04 OPS 98, IsoD 44

05 OPS 110, IsoD 41

06 OPS 135, IsoD 74 (go ahead and take away the IBBs, it's still a vast improvement in an area Lee is getting worse at)

 

not sure why K/BB ratio is in the discussion. we're not talking about pitchers and I thought the general view was strikeouts are not a strong consideration amongst those with the sabr mindset.

 

Just presenting the facts that Soriano and Lees production is a lot more similar than people think. The K/BB tab on the comparison was just random, I was scrolling through all of them looking at the differences.

 

I really don't get your point though. So you are saying that Soriano had one fluke patience year because he was hitting in front of Felipe Lopez/Jose Vidro/Royce Clayton and Nick Johnson/Jose Vidro? If you do isolate out his IBB from 16 to his normal 5 or so, then that takes his IsoD down 10 points give or take a few. So on the whole you are saying that his patience is worse than Lee's, right?

 

2006:

Lee - 27.2 VORP

Soriano - 48.2 VORP

 

2005:

Lee - 24.7 VORP

Soriano - 39.5 VORP

 

Soriano is vastly superior

 

your numbers for 2006 are wrong. bp has carlos lee split into two different players since he changed teams in midseason. lee as a brewer had 27.2 vorp, and lee as a ranger had 20.0 vorp, giving him a total of 47.2 vorp, making him very comparable to soriano.

 

also, wasn't soriano playing second base in 2005? that would make it kind of hard to compare their vorp's for that year since they are no longer playing different positions.

 

the two vorps would be added and not ratioed?