Downey: Cubs last, Sox first.

[goonys evil twin]

http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/cubs/cs-060329downey,1,6383640.column?coll=chi-sportsnew-hed

 

When I contrast their roster with that of the other five clubs in the National League Central, I can come up with no persuasive reason to expect the Cubs to finish ahead of anybody, let alone everybody.

 

Conclude what you will about the quality of the middling teams, the Pittsburgh Pirates and Cincinnati Reds, but to me they bear the look of teams on the upswing.

 

Their defense of the crown begins in three days. The party starts in prime time Sunday night with interest in the team, and newfound respect for it, approaching a Boston-like fever pitch.

 

You can't come up with a persuasive reason to expect the Cubs to finish ahead of anybody? Then you aren't very good at being reasonable.

 

And the interest and respect for the White Sox isn't coming anywhere close to a "Boston-like fever pitch." There hasn't been anymore interest or respect for the White Sox than for the Diamondbacks or Marlins when they won.

 

 

I have to laugh when people say I'm an eternal pessimist with some sort of agenda against the Cubs. I think they can easily take 2nd or 3rd, with a possibility for the division crown. I'm hoping for upper 80s in wins, but think 90+ is attainable. Yet there are people out there picking the Cubs for another sub .500 record, and last place in a division with two sorry franchises and an overhyped cinderella wannabe.

[sweetpeteman]

Of the three, the only team I am worried about is the Brewers, who can make some noise. Obviously the Cards and the Astros will be in it.

[nolanwood]

This guy is an idiot! We've made no downgrades in the offseason. We improved our bullpen and got a significant lead off bat. So how could a team that has done nothing but make improvements finish considerably worse than last season?

 

The Astros lost talent. The Cardinals lost alot of talent. Yet he still considers both of them to be contenders. I dont get it.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Of the three, the only team I am worried about is the Brewers, who can make some noise. Obviously the Cards and the Astros will be in it.

 

I don't think it's obvious that the Astros will be in it. They had an unbelieveable run with their pitching last year that I don't foresee with Clemens being gone and Pettitte pitching way over his head. Their offense is probably going to be worse than ours. 4th or 5th place wouldn't surprise me from them.

[nolanwood]

I sent him an email

 

"Just curious...

 

The Cubs finished in 4th place last year with 79 wins. During that season we lost both Prior and Wood....Nomar was absent for all but 1 month.....and Latroy Hawkins started off the year blowing save after save.

 

For 06 the bullpen has been improved signifcantly. IMPROVEMENT

 

Patterson's dismal bat has been replaced with a much needed quality lead off guy. IMPROVEMENT

 

Jones performs at the same level as Burnitz, and has potential to show more. IMPROVEMENT

 

Murton will be in LF all year, as opposed to month after month last year that the LF spot belonged to unproductive Dubois/Hollandsworth. IMPROVEMENT

 

The Cardinals, for example, got rid of half their team and downgraded at each of those positions.

 

SO, how do you explain that the Cubs will be worse this year with all the improvements they've made, and the Cardinals will be just as good with nothing but pathetic downgrades?"

[Shawon12]

This guy is a tool. I'm surprised he has held on to that column for so this long. My guess is that he works for very cheap.

 

From the article..."If only the Cubs could catch every break, avoid every injury, develop that same perfect blend of talent and teamwork, they could do exactly what the White Sox did. To end up in first place, not in last place, would be a heckuva way for the Cubs to make 2006 even more of a shock than 2005."

 

Did he forget that the reason the White Sox won last year was because they caught every break and avoided injury? While I wouldn't blame anyone for not picking the Cubs first, this is article belongs in the National Enquirer.

[goonys evil twin]

The Astros lost talent. The Cardinals lost alot of talent. Yet he still considers both of them to be contenders. I dont get it.

 

The Cards lost some talent, but also got Rolen back. They're definitely the favorites. The Astros are the team that could be anywhere. Without some otherworldly pitching last year, they finish behind the Cubs. The offense still lacks, and I don't see the pitching being nearly as good. Oswalt could be even better, but I've never been a big Pettite fan, and 4 months of Clemens isn't the same as 6. I could see them finishing anywhere from near the top to all the way at the bottom. Another piss-poor offensive season, and the pitching might not be enough to make up for it this time.

[nolanwood]

The Astros lost talent. The Cardinals lost alot of talent. Yet he still considers both of them to be contenders. I dont get it.

 

The Cards lost some talent, but also got Rolen back. They're definitely the favorites. The Astros are the team that could be anywhere. Without some otherworldly pitching last year, they finish behind the Cubs. The offense still lacks, and I don't see the pitching being nearly as good. Oswalt could be even better, but I've never been a big Pettite fan, and 4 months of Clemens isn't the same as 6. I could see them finishing anywhere from near the top to all the way at the bottom. Another piss-poor offensive season, and the pitching might not be enough to make up for it this time.

 

The Cardinals lost ALOT of talent and have an injured Rolen back....and Edmonds isn't looking very healthy either.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

If Rolen is not 100%

If Eckstein comes back down to earth

If Edmonds is on the decline

If Carpenter comes back down to earth

 

A few ifs to go along with an overall weaker lineup (no Grudz, Walker, Sanders), and this division could be anyone's. I still think they are the favorites, but it's not too much of a stretch to think the Cubs can take it.

[nolanwood]

If Rolen is not 100%

If Eckstein comes back down to earth

If Edmonds is on the decline

If Carpenter comes back down to earth

 

A few ifs to go along with an overall weaker lineup (no Grudz, Walker, Sanders), and this division could be anyone's. I still think they are the favorites, but it's not too much of a stretch to think the Cubs can take it.

 

More downgrades.....Morris replaced with Ponson AND Tavarez replaced with Looper.

[Gunned]

This guy is a tool. I'm surprised he has held on to that column for so this long. My guess is that he works for very cheap.

 

Sadly, he doesn't. Downey is sort of considered the grandfather of Chicago sports writers, having been around for a long time with several papers (notably the LA Times).

 

He's still awful, of course.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

If Rolen is not 100%

If Eckstein comes back down to earth

If Edmonds is on the decline

If Carpenter comes back down to earth

 

A few ifs to go along with an overall weaker lineup (no Grudz, Walker, Sanders), and this division could be anyone's. I still think they are the favorites, but it's not too much of a stretch to think the Cubs can take it.

 

More downgrades.....Morris replaced with Ponson AND Tavarez replaced with Looper.

 

I agree. I don't think they're going to run away with it this year.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Wow, no reason to expect the Cubs to finish better than the Pirates and Reds? I'm at a loss for words.

[Jon]

Downy is not meant to be read.

[JWCUB]

Also, the Cards lost the lefty King out of the pen. Their pen is really in bad shape if you ask me. Big question mark IMO.

[BigbadB]

I thought the Cardinals were a better team with Reggie Sanders in the outfield, also. I think they downgraded there.

[Mark Priors Calves]

just an inflammatory article trying to ruffle some feathers.

[Backtobanks]

The Cards have lost talent, the Astros has lost a ton of talent, the Reds have no pitching, and the Pirates are the Pirates. The Cards should be favorites, while the Brewers are the team on the rise. The Cubs have some question marks, but so do the Brewers and the Cards. The Cubs should end up 2nd or 3rd with a shot at 1st if a few things go well. I think some sportswriters write stupid things to get people discussing their column. Apparently it worked.

[wastra]

While I disagree that this roster is not plainly better than at least Cincy and Pittsburgh, I do think he makes valid points that our organization doesn't seem to be taking any meaningful steps forward.

[rawaction]

The Cards have lost talent, the Astros has lost a ton of talent, the Reds have no pitching, and the Pirates are the Pirates. The Cards should be favorites, while the Brewers are the team on the rise. The Cubs have some question marks, but so do the Brewers and the Cards. The Cubs should end up 2nd or 3rd with a shot at 1st if a few things go well. I think some sportswriters write stupid things to get people discussing their column. Apparently it worked.

 

I was one of the people who thought the Brewers would be decent last year, now that everyone is piled on the bandwagon, I don't think they're ready yet. Weeks and Fielder will experience growing pains. They are bad defensively. Hardy won't be as good as his 2nd half numbers, but not as bad as his first half. Lee's a great RBI man, but doesn't get on base like a 3-4 hitter should. Jenkins had a great 2nd half too, but won't hit as well in 06.

 

I think they are seriously in danger of seeing decreased production across the board offensively with the exception of 2B and possibly SS. If Ben Sheets can't start 30 times for them, they are in bad shape.

[SouthSideRyan]

The Reds are the worst team in baseball that is actually trying. The Marlins and Royals are both worse, but they just don't care. The Reds seem to care but are just an awful team. At least the Pirates have young pitching that could all break out at once in a miracle and finish ahead of the Cubs, but there is absolutely nothing about the Reds that makes me think they're better than anyone besides the Marlins.(Give Bowden another year though, and he'll ensure the Nats are below them too)

[UMFan83]

The Cardinals lost talent, but unfortunately they've proved that their current administration simply runs a better ballclub then the Cubs more often then not. That is why the Cardinals get the benefit of doubt for their moves, and the Cubs have to prove it if they want respect from the media.

[frostwyrm]

Cubs suck, but Downey overstates his case. Regardless of what the Pirates do I still want a rapid fall from contention and a mid-season fire sale.

[NewUserName]

Also if you really look at realistically the only place that you would definetly have the White Sox as a better team than the Cubs is starting pitching. There lineups are about equal minus the DH. I really would have a hard time saying that the White Sox are betting in the bullpen. They do have a better bench. However the White Sox have 2 teams in there division that are really strong (twins, indians) and another that I think is going to be better than expected (tigers). The Cubs division has 1 maybe strong team (cardinals) and 2 other that could be good (Brewers, Astros). I don't even think it is worth the time to explain why the Cubs are going to be a better team than the Reds or the Pirates.

 

Aslo to be considered is the fact the White Sox did have career years out of several players that I wouldnt count on repeating. This to go with the other good teams in there division I just dont think the Sox are going to repeat.

 

The Cubs will probably not win there division, however they are a better team this year with no other team in their division do any major upgrades and both the Cardinals and Astros probably coming back to earth it is very conceivable for the Cubs to win the division. Especially if Prior comes back early and is productive

[Backtobanks]

The Cards have lost talent, the Astros has lost a ton of talent, the Reds have no pitching, and the Pirates are the Pirates. The Cards should be favorites, while the Brewers are the team on the rise. The Cubs have some question marks, but so do the Brewers and the Cards. The Cubs should end up 2nd or 3rd with a shot at 1st if a few things go well. I think some sportswriters write stupid things to get people discussing their column. Apparently it worked.

 

I was one of the people who thought the Brewers would be decent last year, now that everyone is piled on the bandwagon, I don't think they're ready yet. Weeks and Fielder will experience growing pains. They are bad defensively. Hardy won't be as good as his 2nd half numbers, but not as bad as his first half. Lee's a great RBI man, but doesn't get on base like a 3-4 hitter should. Jenkins had a great 2nd half too, but won't hit as well in 06.

 

I think they are seriously in danger of seeing decreased production across the board offensively with the exception of 2B and possibly SS. If Ben Sheets can't start 30 times for them, they are in bad shape.

 

As I originally stated, the Cubs, Cards, and Brewers all have question marks, but they are the top 3 teams in the division. The Brewers are counting on some talented youngsters, but they are youngsters. They got a career year out of Brady Clark and I think it's questionable that he will repeat that success. If he doesn't, Lee's RBI total goes down significantly. I do find it interesting that so many sportswriters will assume that every other team's question marks will succeed while the Cubs' question marks will fail. After this spring, I don't think of Murton as questionable. I think Jones in RF will be adequate. Hopefully Pierre will return to his career averages, but his "lousy" year in 2005 will be a vast improvement over last year's leadoff men. I do agree that spring training didn't solidify Cedeno as a "sure thing", but I do have confidence that he will be a solid SS and an improvement over 2005. As usual, the one unknown is the injury situation, which does seem to haunt the Cubs more than other teams.