Gary Hughes Possible Candidate for Reds GM

[USSoccer]

Hyperbole, i never ever, ever ,ever exagerate. just ask my wife. Hey we all have our sins appear loud and clear when passionately disscussing issues. I have no problem with mine. As i said i cant afford to take it personally in my job. But to deny that a large segment of this board beats the same dead horses on some arguments is a huge fib. I have no problem with those that question the cubs moves or their management , only those that dogmatically hang onto the same metric as an all proving point. Win Shares went far beyond OBP. As mr miles addressed , their are different situational applications for even such a telling stat as OBP. That being said , I love and appreciate the work you do mr Tim and those like you. The board is a good thing. Gods Peace Coach L.

 

The thing you don't seem to see is that people use multiple metrics-not just OBP-to prove points about players and philosiphies.

 

Look at the Juan Pierre issue. People point out his SB% affects his OBP negatively, and his OBP is closely linked to his BABIP, which is why people say he's overvalued-he doesn't walk much, so he needs a high BABIP to be an effective weapon. OBP comes up in that argument, but in the context of other stats as well.

 

Now, Neifi. Neifi also never walks, and never has a high enough BA to justify regular playing time. He has no SLG%, no OBP, a mediocre BA, isn't fast, and hits into a lot of DP's. Again, OBP is used along with other metrics to reach a conclusion that he's not suited for regular playing time.

 

Point out to us one argument where someone hung their hat solely on a players on-base.

[UK1679666180]

A GM is typically as good as his scouts/instructors allow him to be. Hughes has a great track record and whichever route he goes as far as BPA (best player avail) and how much of the team is going to be built thru the farm system will be well thought-out. For isolating it to Cincy, he'll have to decide if they should win in the short-term by drafting college pitchers or mix it w/the higher ceiling HS pitchers.

 

He's earned the right to be a GM. Dayton Moore is still the best future GM, IMO.

 

As far as scouting HS hitters, you learn as much watching him in one practice as you do by watching him in 5 games. Esp., if he's facing the best pitcher during live H/P drills during that practice. Just a little tip for Bruce and Cuse :) .

[CubDad4Ever]

A proper approach at the plate using speed will lend itself to a higher BABIP Ichiro and Jaun use bunts and drawn in infields to help improve angles which increase infield hit totals . That is why juan is sitting at .355 for his lifetime OBP. Speed on the bases , even if you want to take the moneyball rates of 75 for a season are met. Juan P at 79% last year and 74 for his career are more than in the mix for the seasonal sample size. The total disdain for basestealing preached by beane in that book was moronic at worst , not considering small sample size situations (key games) short series Opps I forgot that while guys like Juan P ,scotty Pods and BiP Roperts were busy winning world titles. Billy Ball has yet to reach the pinnicle contest. I know and understand the currancy of baseball is outs as well as you. But again my speaking of metrics goes beyond OBP into the metrics i just spoke of . God Bless and thanks Coach L.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

A proper approach at the plate using speed will lend itself to a higher BABIP Ichiro and Jaun use bunts and drawn in infields to help improve angles which increase infield hit totals . That is why juan is sitting at .355 for his lifetime OBP. Speed on the bases , even if you want to take the moneyball rates of 75 for a season are met. Juan P at 79% last year and 74 for his career are more than in the mix for the seasonal sample size. The total disdain for basestealing preached by beane in that book was moronic at worst , not considering small sample size situations (key games) short series Opps I forgot that while guys like Juan P ,scotty Pods and BiP Roperts were busy winning world titles. Billy Ball has yet to reach the pinnicle contest. I know and understand the currancy of baseball is outs as well as you. But again my speaking of metrics goes beyond OBP into the metrics i just spoke of . God Bless and thanks Coach L.

 

When you live by BABIP, you also die by BABIP. It's certain that players that have the approach of an Ichiro or a Pierre lends itself to a higher BABIP. However, that style, or any style of play, does not protect them from the variation that's sure to occur with BABIP. When you are one dimensional in that aspect, when you can't take a walk(Ichiro) or hit for extra bases(Pierre) to still help when BABIP fluctuates, then you wind up with seasons that are as miserable, like Pierre's 2002 or 2005.

 

Not making the World Series is not an indictment of a team that's built. The series' are too short, and too unpredictable for a result either way to be the responsibility of the GM.

 

EDIT: You should also know from the book that Beane's aversion to base stealing in that particular season was largely a product of the team he built. He shut down the running game because with the team he had it would hurt more than it would help.

Edited January 25, 2006 by Transmogrified Tiger

[sethuel1]

Opps I forgot that while guys like Juan P ,scotty Pods and BiP Roperts were busy winning world titles.

 

Also Lenny Harris and Timo Perez were out winning world titles. Maybe we should get players like them, too.

 

or maybe we should stop judging the quality of players on whether they were 1/25th of a World Series-winning team.

[stitchface]

A proper approach at the plate using speed will lend itself to a higher BABIP Ichiro and Jaun use bunts and drawn in infields to help improve angles which increase infield hit totals . That is why juan is sitting at .355 for his lifetime OBP. Speed on the bases , even if you want to take the moneyball rates of 75 for a season are met. Juan P at 79% last year and 74 for his career are more than in the mix for the seasonal sample size. The total disdain for basestealing preached by beane in that book was moronic at worst , not considering small sample size situations (key games) short series Opps I forgot that while guys like Juan P ,scotty Pods and BiP Roperts were busy winning world titles. Billy Ball has yet to reach the pinnicle contest. I know and understand the currancy of baseball is outs as well as you. But again my speaking of metrics goes beyond OBP into the metrics i just spoke of . God Bless and thanks Coach L.

 

bellhorn was also winning a championship. that argument is tired and pointless. are you going to say jeter is better than ARod next? your point seems to be to argue no matter what anyone says, it almost appears you decided everyone's opinion before you started posting and have since not read anything anyone has written.

[CubDad4Ever]

The affomentioned were not top of the order players impacting an offense. The arrogant way the speed game was approached was second only to the managers are stupid and should be taught how to stand in the dugout . Arrogance goes hand in hand with forgetting details that could help win those small sample size games. It all counts and needes to be weighed or the viewpoint is too narrow. God Bless Coach L

[abuck1220]

I really get it now. Most of the sarcasm on this board is based on percieved views from the book moneyball and "old school baseballs respones to it. Walks clog , get guys who can catch it etc. First of all i have a lot of friends that are ex college and some pro players. They respect how dificullt the game is and how much failure is in it. They naturally question statements in the form of absolutes and are often trying to exhibit said feelings , with sarcasm and humor. Many on this board buy it hook line and sinker as they do moneyball in general . They fail to read all the books Bill James has written . (i have) and his abhorance of people who run away with one stat or metric. He values constant evaulation and multiple metric tests. So guys like Gary Hughes have their value when taken in context , as does Dusty. The truth is people dont want to blame people like Wood and Prior who have not pitched to the level of expectation. Its easier to make Dusty the whipping boy with Nefi. Offense is critical but many aspects of the game are also. Evaluation needs to be eclectic and diverse to fit diverse needs. God Bless Coach L

 

i don't think anyone brings up moneyball in a higher % of their posts than you. maybe that's why it seems like you're always reading about it on here.

[abuck1220]

But to deny that a large segment of this board beats the same dead horses on some arguments is a huge fib.

 

speaking of which, you have beaten the horse dead six times over and pounded the dirt on which it laid until you were half way to china...all in the span of three pages.

[BigbadB]

The affomentioned were not top of the order players impacting an offense. The arrogant way the speed game was approached was second only to the managers are stupid and should be taught how to stand in the dugout . Arrogance goes hand in hand with forgetting details that could help win those small sample size games. It all counts and needes to be weighed or the viewpoint is too narrow. God Bless Coach L

 

So 498 top of the order plate appearances is a "small sample size"? I guess you learn something new everyday.

 

By the way, I'm referencing Mark Bellhorn's lead off and #2 plate appearances with Boston in 2004, the year they won the World Series. I guess Bellhorn can't even remotely be considered as a top of the order player impacting an offense with such few plate appearances.

 

I think what people really wish you would quit doing is insulting their opinions because they don't agree with yours.

[The Voice of Reason]

TT - Thanks for posting the Baseball America Great Debate article about the feud between scouts and stat guys. I thought Gary Hughes came off looking pretty good in the article as someone who values and evaluates players using both perspectives.

 

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/features/050107debate.html

[Transmogrified Tiger]

TT - Thanks for posting the Baseball America Great Debate article about the feud between scouts and stat guys. I thought Gary Hughes came off looking pretty good in the article as someone who values and evaluates players using both perspectives.

 

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/features/050107debate.html

 

IMO, Hughes comes off as closeminded and uninformed on the "other" side, probably the worst of the 4. Bane and the non-McCracken stat guy come off the best, and McCracken doesn't tolerate the other side much at all.

[seanhopper]

TT - Thanks for posting the Baseball America Great Debate article about the feud between scouts and stat guys. I thought Gary Hughes came off looking pretty good in the article as someone who values and evaluates players using both perspectives.

 

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/features/050107debate.html

 

IMO, Hughes comes off as closeminded and uninformed on the "other" side, probably the worst of the 4. Bane and the non-McCracken stat guy come off the best, and McCracken doesn't tolerate the other side much at all.

 

Agreed. Hughes does sound closeminded, to the point where he would railroad a guy through if his "old school" scouting ways told him to even if the stats don't add up. I do however believe he's one of the best scouts out there and like the fact that he's with the Cubs. I just hope Hendry is able to be open to both sides and has some good stat guys as well in-house. The new director of scouting (I believe that's his title) is also old-school, so I wonder what his take is.

[T2E]

TT - Thanks for posting the Baseball America Great Debate article about the feud between scouts and stat guys. I thought Gary Hughes came off looking pretty good in the article as someone who values and evaluates players using both perspectives.

 

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/features/050107debate.html

 

IMO, Hughes comes off as closeminded and uninformed on the "other" side, probably the worst of the 4. Bane and the non-McCracken stat guy come off the best, and McCracken doesn't tolerate the other side much at all.

 

Personally, I don't have a problem with either of them being closeminded in their current positions. Hughes specializes in scouting, McCracken in statistical analysis, if I'm a GM I would want them giving me the input from their standpoint before making a decision. I'd be less confident with Hughes as a GM but I think he's such a good scout that his franchise could be sucessful in the Braves, Marlins, Twins mold.

[treebird]

Personally, I don't have a problem with either of them being closeminded in their current positions. Hughes specializes in scouting, McCracken in statistical analysis, if I'm a GM I would want them giving me the input from their standpoint before making a decision.

 

this is pretty much how i feel too. i'd love to have hughes around if there was a comparable advisor on the statistical side and both worked directly underneath a general manager who gave credence to both stats and scouts.

 

i dont think we have that though.

[RynoRules]

Personally, I don't have a problem with either of them being closeminded in their current positions. Hughes specializes in scouting, McCracken in statistical analysis, if I'm a GM I would want them giving me the input from their standpoint before making a decision.

 

this is pretty much how i feel too. i'd love to have hughes around if there was a comparable advisor on the statistical side and both worked directly underneath a general manager who gave credence to both stats and scouts.

 

i dont think we have that though.

 

Fair points all. And the lack of balance in the front office is evident.

[CarolinaCubFan]

I really get it now. Most of the sarcasm on this board is based on percieved views from the book moneyball and "old school baseballs respones to it. Walks clog , get guys who can catch it etc. First of all i have a lot of friends that are ex college and some pro players. They respect how dificullt the game is and how much failure is in it. They naturally question statements in the form of absolutes and are often trying to exhibit said feelings , with sarcasm and humor. Many on this board buy it hook line and sinker as they do moneyball in general . They fail to read all the books Bill James has written . (i have) and his abhorance of people who run away with one stat or metric. He values constant evaulation and multiple metric tests. So guys like Gary Hughes have their value when taken in context , as does Dusty. The truth is people dont want to blame people like Wood and Prior who have not pitched to the level of expectation. Its easier to make Dusty the whipping boy with Nefi. Offense is critical but many aspects of the game are also. Evaluation needs to be eclectic and diverse to fit diverse needs. God Bless Coach L

 

Seriously, stop trying to fit some group of posters with some preconceived notion you have. No one is running away with one metric here. You're crying out for balance when it is already there.

 

I don't agree TT. Maybe the moneyballers need to expand their views a little. It's not just one person who feels moneyballers are running away with only one metric. I think you are smarter than most on this board, but I also read your posts as being "extreme" on the whole moneyball thing. I don't see the balance you talk of.

[BigbadB]

I really get it now. Most of the sarcasm on this board is based on percieved views from the book moneyball and "old school baseballs respones to it. Walks clog , get guys who can catch it etc. First of all i have a lot of friends that are ex college and some pro players. They respect how dificullt the game is and how much failure is in it. They naturally question statements in the form of absolutes and are often trying to exhibit said feelings , with sarcasm and humor. Many on this board buy it hook line and sinker as they do moneyball in general . They fail to read all the books Bill James has written . (i have) and his abhorance of people who run away with one stat or metric. He values constant evaulation and multiple metric tests. So guys like Gary Hughes have their value when taken in context , as does Dusty. The truth is people dont want to blame people like Wood and Prior who have not pitched to the level of expectation. Its easier to make Dusty the whipping boy with Nefi. Offense is critical but many aspects of the game are also. Evaluation needs to be eclectic and diverse to fit diverse needs. God Bless Coach L

 

Seriously, stop trying to fit some group of posters with some preconceived notion you have. No one is running away with one metric here. You're crying out for balance when it is already there.

 

I don't agree TT. Maybe the moneyballers need to expand their views a little. It's not just one person who feels moneyballers are running away with only one metric. I think you are smarter than most on this board, but I also read your posts as being "extreme" on the whole moneyball thing. I don't see the balance you talk of.

 

Are you suggesting that because someone doesn't agree with how you would assemble a baseball team, that they should expand their views?

 

Maybe what we really need to do is get to the bottom of this. Make a list of the people you feel are too extreme towards moneyball. Don't leave anyone out. Then, once you've compiled the list, we can then finally disprove your theory that any of those people are brainwashed or part of a large groupthink that seems to be tagged to anyone who uses Moneyball or any of it's philosophies. As far as I can tell, and I've been here since day one, everyone is a free thinker. And they are welcome to think what they wish. It's not for you to decide who should or shouldn't expand on their views.

 

Feel free to ignore them and feel free to debate with them. But knock off the holier than thou crap. Thanks!

[RynoRules]

Could we all take it easy and get back on topic?

 

I thought I saw Bruce Miles say that Gary has brought more of an OBP-centric approach via the way the Cubs examine and evaluate pitchers. Sounds pretty progressive.

[jtownie]

Could we all take it easy and get back on topic?

 

I thought I saw Bruce Miles say that Gary has brought more of an OBP-centric approach via the way the Cubs examine and evaluate pitchers. Sounds pretty progressive.

 

Yeah, he posted part of an article that he wrote that was a transcript of an interview he had with Hughes. Hughes said that OBP was one of the first stats he looked at when evaluating talent. I can't remember the exact phrasing but he went expanded on what outside factors he looks at to evaluate if the player had the additional "tools" necessary to be a MLB player.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I really get it now. Most of the sarcasm on this board is based on percieved views from the book moneyball and "old school baseballs respones to it. Walks clog , get guys who can catch it etc. First of all i have a lot of friends that are ex college and some pro players. They respect how dificullt the game is and how much failure is in it. They naturally question statements in the form of absolutes and are often trying to exhibit said feelings , with sarcasm and humor. Many on this board buy it hook line and sinker as they do moneyball in general . They fail to read all the books Bill James has written . (i have) and his abhorance of people who run away with one stat or metric. He values constant evaulation and multiple metric tests. So guys like Gary Hughes have their value when taken in context , as does Dusty. The truth is people dont want to blame people like Wood and Prior who have not pitched to the level of expectation. Its easier to make Dusty the whipping boy with Nefi. Offense is critical but many aspects of the game are also. Evaluation needs to be eclectic and diverse to fit diverse needs. God Bless Coach L

 

Seriously, stop trying to fit some group of posters with some preconceived notion you have. No one is running away with one metric here. You're crying out for balance when it is already there.

 

I don't agree TT. Maybe the moneyballers need to expand their views a little. It's not just one person who feels moneyballers are running away with only one metric. I think you are smarter than most on this board, but I also read your posts as being "extreme" on the whole moneyball thing. I don't see the balance you talk of.

 

So you see people here only using one metric to evaluate players? It's one thing to consider both sides, and what CubsDad is implying is quite another. It's the umpteenth post where he's said something to the effect of "you have to consider more than OBP", when there is much more being taken into consideration by those he's speaking too. It's frustrating at the least, trolling at the worst.

[CubDad4Ever]

Tigger, when i hear you discribe guys like Hughes in such narrow terms and hear your evaluations of guys like perez only consider obp. When i hear people take a man like baker and live off a throwaway quote like "walks clog the bases " It does not take a MIT grad to connect the dots on thought process. Like most people you try to fit certain stats in a context to fit your chosen hypothesis . No problem , i dont take it personally. I just dont buy what your cookin. Hint if your going to argue that someone is pegging a certain way. Evaluate Baker the same way. Im not here to tell you how to act or think. But i do feel free to call Shaningens when i think i see them. God Bless Coach L.

[CubinNY]

Tigger, when i hear you discribe guys like Hughes in such narrow terms and hear your evaluations of guys like perez only consider obp. When i hear people take a man like baker and live off a throwaway quote like "walks clog the bases " It does not take a MIT grad to connect the dots on thought process. Like most people you try to fit certain stats in a context to fit your chosen hypothesis . No problem , i dont take it personally. I just dont buy what your cookin. Hint if your going to argue that someone is pegging a certain way. Evaluate Baker the same way. Im not here to tell you how to act or think. But i do feel free to call Shaningens when i think i see them. God Bless Coach L.

 

In the context in which Baker said, "walks clog bases" it was most definately not a throw away line. Unless you have an axe to grind.

 

When he said it Baker was talking about what makes a good baseball player. He also said something to the extent of "you don't walk across home plate you run" or some other such nonsense.

 

It is abundently clear that you read other peoples post and disregard the crux of the argument so that it fits whatever you think the person is trying to say. No problem, I don't take it personally. I just don't by what your cookin. Evaluate Neifie anyway you want, he is a crappy player and shouldn't start at any position. I'm not here to tell you how to act or think. But I do feel free to call sheaningens when I think I see them.

[sethuel1]

I do not peg Baker as a bad coach simply because of his stance on walks.

 

I peg him as a bad coach because of his stance on walks, his inability to get proper bullpen matchups, his inability to properly use his bullpen (resulting in some relievers getting ridiculously overworked while others rot), his inability to pull his starters at the proper times, his inability to use non-vets in critical situations where a younger player is statistically more likely to succeed, his inability to fill out a lineup card in a way that maximizes the abilities of the players in the lineup, and his inability to recognize when a particular idea (for example, Corey in leadoff) is really really terrible.

 

And those are just the big things.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Tigger, when i hear you discribe guys like Hughes in such narrow terms and hear your evaluations of guys like perez only consider obp.

 

Like most people you try to fit certain stats in a context to fit your chosen hypothesis.

 

Unreal.