Gary Hughes Possible Candidate for Reds GM

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I really get it now. Most of the sarcasm on this board is based on percieved views from the book moneyball and "old school baseballs respones to it. Walks clog , get guys who can catch it etc. First of all i have a lot of friends that are ex college and some pro players. They respect how dificullt the game is and how much failure is in it. They naturally question statements in the form of absolutes and are often trying to exhibit said feelings , with sarcasm and humor. Many on this board buy it hook line and sinker as they do moneyball in general . They fail to read all the books Bill James has written . (i have) and his abhorance of people who run away with one stat or metric. He values constant evaulation and multiple metric tests. So guys like Gary Hughes have their value when taken in context , as does Dusty. The truth is people dont want to blame people like Wood and Prior who have not pitched to the level of expectation. Its easier to make Dusty the whipping boy with Nefi. Offense is critical but many aspects of the game are also. Evaluation needs to be eclectic and diverse to fit diverse needs. God Bless Coach L

 

Seriously, stop trying to fit some group of posters with some preconceived notion you have. No one is running away with one metric here. You're crying out for balance when it is already there.

[CubDad4Ever]

If you dont belong in that group it wasnt meant for you . I too have read palmer and others and moneyball also . They all have some value when taken in context. I wish more people would . But regardless i enjoy reading peoples takes and as a coach i dont take it personally. God Bless and Go Cubs

[CuseCubFan69]

Many have held their beliefs long before Moneyball. I believe it was the late eighties when I first started reading the work of Palmer, Thorn, James, among others. Moneyball may have brought to light what many of us already were aware of.

 

I think any baseball book has it's pluses and minuses and you take out of it whatever may make you better weather it's being a GM, Coach/Manager or a fan.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

If you dont belong in that group it wasnt meant for you . I too have read palmer and others and moneyball also . They all have some value when taken in context. I wish more people would . But regardless i enjoy reading peoples takes and as a coach i dont take it personally. God Bless and Go Cubs

 

You'd be much better off just taking the arguments as they are without trying to label people into preconceived stereotypes.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

If you dont belong in that group it wasnt meant for you . I too have read palmer and others and moneyball also . They all have some value when taken in context. I wish more people would . But regardless i enjoy reading peoples takes and as a coach i dont take it personally. God Bless and Go Cubs

 

I think one of the keys of Palmer and Thorn and others is that they have tried to put these performances in context. Statistical analysis provides that context. Park factors and adjusting to league norms provide that context.

 

Bill James's work with win shares is attempt to contextualize. So, when those of us who are statistically inclined look at these numbers, we are contextualizing.

 

DIPS attempts to contextualize the pitcher's performance and isolate it from the performance of the defense behind him so we can determine exactly how the pitcher performed. All of these "newfangled" stats are attempts to contextualize.

[Bruce Miles]

Last March, I wrote a big enterprise feature on the whole scouts vs. stats thing. Here are some of the transcripts from my interview with Gary Hughes FWIW:

 

 

Stats you value: What about OBP?

"I've been drinking that (OBP) Kool-Aid for a long time. When I'm doing pro coverage and I get to the park and get a stat sheet, that's the first thing I've looked at for 30 years. Guess what, though? It tells me who the best hitter is. Wow. This didn't just get invented."

 

"What Billy Beane has done in Oakland is phenomenal. That's "money-ball." Do I agree with everything in the book that they do and how they did it? No. Do I admire the hell out of what they've done? Yes, because of the fact they're constricted by money. Don't tell me Boston's a "Moneyball" team, not with a hundred-bazillion dollar payroll. That's not "Moneyball."

 

"The first thing I look at is walks to strikeouts. The guys that best walk to strikeouts is the best. That's where you're going to see your best hitter because the guy makes contact more than he misses."

[CuseCubFan69]

Last March, I wrote a big enterprise feature on the whole scouts vs. stats thing. Here are some of the transcripts from my interview with Gary Hughes FWIW:

 

 

Stats you value: What about OBP?

"I've been drinking that (OBP) Kool-Aid for a long time. When I'm doing pro coverage and I get to the park and get a stat sheet, that's the first thing I've looked at for 30 years. Guess what, though? It tells me who the best hitter is. Wow. This didn't just get invented."

 

"What Billy Beane has done in Oakland is phenomenal. That's "money-ball." Do I agree with everything in the book that they do and how they did it? No. Do I admire the hell out of what they've done? Yes, because of the fact they're constricted by money. Don't tell me Boston's a "Moneyball" team, not with a hundred-bazillion dollar payroll. That's not "Moneyball."

 

"The first thing I look at is walks to strikeouts. The guys that best walk to strikeouts is the best. That's where you're going to see your best hitter because the guy makes contact more than he misses."

 

What does Hughes consider the Cubs approach Bruce? If what he is saying is true then how come they seem to go after the toolsy types players?

[Bruce Miles]

Hughes considers the Cubs as taking a balanced approach. Sure, it's weighted in favor of toolsy guys, but I don't think you'd have seen guys like Murton having the Cubs this excited a few short years ago.

[don_kessinger_was_good]

Any organization that values a Neifi Perez and Jose Macias, and values a manager that is dumb enough to play them, deserves heaps of scorn and ridicule.

[CuseCubFan69]

Hughes considers the Cubs as taking a balanced approach. Sure, it's weighted in favor of toolsy guys, but I don't think you'd have seen guys like Murton having the Cubs this excited a few short years ago.

 

I think a balance approach is a good way to go as long as the scouts are comfortable with it. Do they know how to look for this in a college or high school kid? I just feel uncomfortable knowing that Murton was a Boston draft and it would make me thrilled to see the Cubs come up with some of their own drafted kids that could do this sort of thing.

[Bruce Miles]

We'll see how guys like Harvey pan out.

 

The farther you go down in levels, the less reliable a metric a stat like OBP becomes because of numerous factors: lack of control by young pitchers, lack of plate discipline by young hitters and the fact that a high school and/or college coach might pitch around a good hitter all game so that kid doesn't beat him. Even if you throw out intentional walks, I'm sure many a good high school kid has been pitched around and walked unintentionally so that he doesn't make the difference in game. That, to me, is where the value of scouting comes in. When that kid does get a chance to hit, how does he look to a scout?

 

But there's no doubt the Cubs need to do a better job of drafting and developing position players. They've emphasized pitching in recent years, but soon we should see some results on the hitters in their system.

[CubDad4Ever]

Again if you dont belong to the club , dont sweat it. It is a given that things like win shares go across the metric spectrum. But two things are true . James always realuates in every book he has written. knowing , none of these are ablsoutes. Im just calling out absolutes, there are not many. By the way , im very sabermetrically friendly. Thats why i read alot. However coachs have to take info and apply it across the board. Sterotypeing , some of you do it all the time and try to hide behind perception of a dusty, hendry , hughes response.

 

These guys butts are already on the line, they get hired to be fired in the pros. So thats why they make fun of absolute staments by "some" stat oriented people. Middle ground is more than numbers Arrogance was spouted by baseball guys for a lot of years. I think the same arrogence is being returned by some stat people. Neither is going to get the job done. As always the truth lies somewhere in between. God Bless Coach L

[CubDad4Ever]

Bruce Miles , excellent angle on the interpretation of a metric like obp. Thats the fresh approach , i love to read. I had not thought of those exact applications , but they make sense. God Bless Coach L.

[CuseCubFan69]

I like seeing kids hit in different situations. I think it's good when a kid that gets pitched around in HS can lay off certain pitches and zone in on what he needs to look for to drive. I agree with your assessment that's it's tough to judge these types of things due to different variables but that is the scouts job IMO and what scares me is that the Cubs do not know what to look for when they evaluate this type of hitter.

 

From what I've read doesn't Harvey have a poor knowledge of the strike zone? I have a lot of faith in Richie Zisk or Von Joshua to help him conquer this weakness but I have to wonder what they saw in him over Milledge.

Edited January 24, 2006 by CuseCubFan69

[rocket]

Hughes recognizing the importance of OBP is refreshing. I wonder if Hendry feels the same about it too.

[Bruce Miles]

Hughes recognizing the importance of OBP is refreshing. I wonder if Hendry feels the same about it too.

 

I found one interesting stereo-type buster in working with the Cubs. I asked once about a pitcher's batting-average-against stat. I was told the Cubs look more at the pitcher's OBP-against stat because it lets them know if he walks a lot of guys.

They're coming around to it. I think that's encouraging.

[Neuby]

The Gary Hughes bashing on this board is nuts.

I haven't been able to follow things lately as much as I used to but is Jason Dubois playing in the California penial league this season as a DH?

[Roast]

Hopefully, they hire Hughes and he doesn't like Dunn in LF and trades him to the Cubs for Felix Pie and Roberto Novoa.

 

Or he could always just leave him at 1B where he is slated to play this year.

Lyke no wai!1 teh cobs r gun get r Dunn lolz!

 

you should go ahead and change your name now, it's fitting.

 

No kidding. Your vendetta against all proposals involving Dunn is ridiculous

[TXCubsFan]

Hughes recognizing the importance of OBP is refreshing. I wonder if Hendry feels the same about it too.

 

I found one interesting stereo-type buster in working with the Cubs. I asked once about a pitcher's batting-average-against stat. I was told the Cubs look more at the pitcher's OBP-against stat because it lets them know if he walks a lot of guys.

They're coming around to it. I think that's encouraging.

 

I think the trades that netted Murton, Ciaramella, and Spears show that the Cubs are starting to be more balanced in their player acquisitions. In the late 1990s, didn't they draft some super-tooled players that couldn't actually hit? (No Corey jokes, please)

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

The Gary Hughes bashing on this board is nuts.

I haven't been able to follow things lately as much as I used to but is Jason Dubois playing in the California penial league this season as a DH?

 

Did Dubois get arrested?

[Neuby]

The Gary Hughes bashing on this board is nuts.

I haven't been able to follow things lately as much as I used to but is Jason Dubois playing in the California penial league this season as a DH?

 

Did Dubois get arrested?

 

nah J/K

[Tim]

Again if you dont belong to the club , dont sweat it. It is a given that things like win shares go across the metric spectrum. But two things are true . James always realuates in every book he has written. knowing , none of these are ablsoutes. Im just calling out absolutes, there are not many. By the way , im very sabermetrically friendly. Thats why i read alot. However coachs have to take info and apply it across the board. Sterotypeing , some of you do it all the time and try to hide behind perception of a dusty, hendry , hughes response.

 

These guys butts are already on the line, they get hired to be fired in the pros. So thats why they make fun of absolute staments by "some" stat oriented people. Middle ground is more than numbers Arrogance was spouted by baseball guys for a lot of years. I think the same arrogence is being returned by some stat people. Neither is going to get the job done. As always the truth lies somewhere in between. God Bless Coach L

And some people always resort to hyperbole and absolutes to make their point.

 

Oh, wait...

[Neuby]

Again if you dont belong to the club , dont sweat it. It is a given that things like win shares go across the metric spectrum. But two things are true . James always realuates in every book he has written. knowing , none of these are ablsoutes. Im just calling out absolutes, there are not many. By the way , im very sabermetrically friendly. Thats why i read alot. However coachs have to take info and apply it across the board. Sterotypeing , some of you do it all the time and try to hide behind perception of a dusty, hendry , hughes response.

 

These guys butts are already on the line, they get hired to be fired in the pros. So thats why they make fun of absolute staments by "some" stat oriented people. Middle ground is more than numbers Arrogance was spouted by baseball guys for a lot of years. I think the same arrogence is being returned by some stat people. Neither is going to get the job done. As always the truth lies somewhere in between. God Bless Coach L

And some people always resort to hyperbole and absolutes to make their point.

 

Oh, wait...

 

Im gonna agree with Cubsdad4ever there's a large group on this board that likes to believe that they know more about players trade vaule then the peolpe that work in the game today and tend to have some very negative attitudes towards some of the most respected minds in the game today (Hendry and Hughes). A lot of peolpe on this board love to mention Sisco as a mistake on Hendry part but some to fail to give him credit on knowing when it was time to cut ties with some of the boards favorites Cruz ,Choi, Dubois ,Jones, Harris, Hill who have all gone on to have such sucesss elsewhere.

[USSoccer]

Again if you dont belong to the club , dont sweat it. It is a given that things like win shares go across the metric spectrum. But two things are true . James always realuates in every book he has written. knowing , none of these are ablsoutes. Im just calling out absolutes, there are not many. By the way , im very sabermetrically friendly. Thats why i read alot. However coachs have to take info and apply it across the board. Sterotypeing , some of you do it all the time and try to hide behind perception of a dusty, hendry , hughes response.

 

These guys butts are already on the line, they get hired to be fired in the pros. So thats why they make fun of absolute staments by "some" stat oriented people. Middle ground is more than numbers Arrogance was spouted by baseball guys for a lot of years. I think the same arrogence is being returned by some stat people. Neither is going to get the job done. As always the truth lies somewhere in between. God Bless Coach L

And some people always resort to hyperbole and absolutes to make their point.

 

Oh, wait...

 

Im gonna agree with Cubsdad4ever there's a large group on this board that likes to believe that they know more about players trade vaule then the peolpe that work in the game today and tend to have some very negative attitudes towards some of the most respected minds in the game today (Hendry and Hughes). A lot of peolpe on this board love to mention Sisco as a mistake on Hendry part but some to fail to give him credit on knowing when it was time to cut ties with some of the boards favorites Cruz ,Choi, Dubois ,Jones, Harris, Hill who have all gone on to have such sucesss elsewhere.

 

Actually, I'd argue that Hendry held on to Cruz way too long. He was a top 10 prospect in baseball at one point, and we got nothing for him in the end. Can't argue about Hill, Jones or Choi.

[CubDad4Ever]

Hyperbole, i never ever, ever ,ever exagerate. just ask my wife. Hey we all have our sins appear loud and clear when passionately disscussing issues. I have no problem with mine. As i said i cant afford to take it personally in my job. But to deny that a large segment of this board beats the same dead horses on some arguments is a huge fib. I have no problem with those that question the cubs moves or their management , only those that dogmatically hang onto the same metric as an all proving point. Win Shares went far beyond OBP. As mr miles addressed , their are different situational applications for even such a telling stat as OBP. That being said , I love and appreciate the work you do mr Tim and those like you. The board is a good thing. Gods Peace Coach L.