Cubs Pre-Offseason Mega Thread

[Nolo]

12 minutes ago, Bertz said:

The Dodgers signed Edwin Diaz, the top RP on the market last year, and he missed 2/3s of the season and had an 8.68 ERA when he did pitch

Prior to 2025, the Dodgers signed Tanner Scott, the top RP on the market that year.  He had a 4.74 ERA and 10 blown saves his first season in LA

Prior to 2024, the Houston Astros signed Josh Hader, the top RP on the market that year.  He had a 3.80 ERA his first season in Houston

Prior to 2023 the New York Mets signed Edwin Diaz, the top RP on the marmet that year.  He missed the entire season with a leg injury he sustained in the WBC

RP are super fickle, and unfortunately signing the top one in FA is not a direct path to getting a really good one.

I couldn’t agree more. If you look at Morejon though, he’s 27 and his past 3 seasons have been very consistent. He has a ridiculous K rate and 60% GB rate, he’s a stud. That doesn’t guarantee future success of course, maybe he loves that perfect san diego weather. There have even been talks of converting him back into a starter, but I’m not so sure about if that’s the best route for him. The concern with him I have is he was unavailable the last 3 games of the playoffs due to “shoulder stickiness” (whatever that means). You’re right anything can happen but he’s a guy I’d like to see the Cubs acquire and I’ll stay firm on that. Of course, he’s not the only piece we need, and I think every big market team will make an offer on him anyways. It’s a long shot. 

Edited yesterday at 03:42 PM by Nolo

[Rcal10]

8 minutes ago, Nolo said:

I couldn’t agree more. If you look at Morejon though, he’s 27 and his past 3 seasons have been very consistent. He has a ridiculous K rate and 60% GB rate, he’s a stud. That doesn’t guarantee future success of course, maybe he loves that perfect san diego weather. There have even been talks of converting him back into a starter, but I’m not so sure about if that’s the best route for him. The concern with him I have is he was unavailable the last 3 games of the playoffs due to “shoulder stickiness” (whatever that means). You’re right anything can happen but he’s a guy I’d like to see the Cubs acquire and I’ll stay firm on that. Of course, he’s not the only piece we need, and I think every big market team will make an offer on him anyways. It’s a long shot. 

If he is someone who is your absolute top target I think you are in for a disappointing off season. I think he is probably the least likely option for the Cubs. I think Skubal and Seiya are more likely than him, and I don’t think either of them is very likely either. I also agree with many others here who suggest he isn’t someone they should pay anyway. 

[mul21]

18 minutes ago, Nolo said:

I couldn’t agree more. If you look at Morejon though, he’s 27 and his past 3 seasons have been very consistent. He has a ridiculous K rate and 60% GB rate, he’s a stud. That doesn’t guarantee future success of course, maybe he loves that perfect san diego weather. There have even been talks of converting him back into a starter, but I’m not so sure about if that’s the best route for him. The concern with him I have is he was unavailable the last 3 games of the playoffs due to “shoulder stickiness” (whatever that means). You’re right anything can happen but he’s a guy I’d like to see the Cubs acquire and I’ll stay firm on that. Of course, he’s not the only piece we need, and I think every big market team will make an offer on him anyways. It’s a long shot. 

He also was limited in the playoffs because of an achy shoulder.  I really don't want anything to do with a guy who is both a reliever and has a questionable shoulder.

[Nolo]

32 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

If he is someone who is your absolute top target I think you are in for a disappointing off season. I think he is probably the least likely option for the Cubs. I think Skubal and Seiya are more likely than him, and I don’t think either of them is very likely either. I also agree with many others here who suggest he isn’t someone they should pay anyway. 

Well Skubal is my top target.

Skubal + Holmes + Peterson 

But I need one of Skubal or Morejon.

Give me those three starters above and I am okay with no Morejon. But it can start to get expensive when you consider a solid corner OF. I think we can fill DH spot relatively cheap.

Edited yesterday at 04:22 PM by Nolo

[Rcal10]

8 minutes ago, Nolo said:

Well Skubal is my top target.

Skubal + Holmes + Peterson 

But I need one of Skubal or Morejon.

Give me those three starters above and I am okay with no Morejon. But it can start to get expensive when you consider a solid corner OF. I think we can fill DH spot relatively cheap.

I think if they really wanted they can do Skubal, Holmes and Peterson. But then I doubt any substantial money is spent on bats or a pen arm. Probably nothing on a pen arm. As for bats I think they will be looking at guys like Josh Bell, Conforto, Ward, Taylor, Grichik, Luis Robert, etc…. to fill corner and DH. Add a couple of those to Ramirez and Shaw and that is the bench. And I am not even sure they have the money for a couple of those bats. 

[Bertz]

Early projections not dissauding me from my pro Trent Grisham vehemently anti Suzuki/Arozarena platform

[Tryptamine]

What does it take to land Steven Kwan? He's a FA after 2027 and he'll be make 10ish million in his last year of arbitration. He's certainly not your prototypical big power having COF but he's a good OBP guy, plays very good defense and usually sits around 3.5-4.0 fWAR. It gives you an extra year to see what you have in Conrad/Kepley before locking someone in long term. It does basically mandate that they would have to go out and get a big bat at either RF or DH, but I think I'd like it assuming the cost wasn't too crazy. Could Sorrell or Bailey headline something like that since I'm guessing Cleveland would want bats.

[Rcal10]

18 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

What does it take to land Steven Kwan? He's a FA after 2027 and he'll be make 10ish million in his last year of arbitration. He's certainly not your prototypical big power having COF but he's a good OBP guy, plays very good defense and usually sits around 3.5-4.0 fWAR. It gives you an extra year to see what you have in Conrad/Kepley before locking someone in long term. It does basically mandate that they would have to go out and get a big bat at either RF or DH, but I think I'd like it assuming the cost wasn't too crazy. Could Sorrell or Bailey headline something like that since I'm guessing Cleveland would want bats.

Question should be “should” Sorrell or Bailey headline this sort of move. My answer would be no. 

[Nolo]

12 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Question should be “should” Sorrell or Bailey headline this sort of move. My answer would be no. 

Idk if those guys are enough for Kwan, but I’d be okay with one of them as trade capital in general. PCA is locked up for a bit and we’d still have Conrad, Kepley and Hartshorn in the farm.

Edited yesterday at 05:46 PM by Nolo

[Rcal10]

13 minutes ago, Nolo said:

Idk if those guys are enough for Kwan, but I’d be okay with one of them as trade capital in general. PCA is locked up for a bit and we’d still have Conrad, Kepley and Hartshorn in the farm.

Continually trading minor league talent, in many cases before we even see if they have any potential to make it in the major, to chase 30 year old players within a year or two of FA is not a way to sustain success. Kwan isn’t a player I give up young high draft picks for. 

[Nolo]

Just now, Rcal10 said:

Continually trading minor league talent, in many cases before we even see if they have any potential to make it in the major, to chase 30 year old players within a year or two of FA is not a way to sustain success. Kwan isn’t a player I give up young high draft picks for. 

That’s fair enough, just seems like a surplus of minor league OFers with PCA locked up, no?

[Rcal10]

9 minutes ago, Nolo said:

That’s fair enough, just seems like a surplus of minor league OFers with PCA locked up, no?

Well Bailey is a first baseman. So he doesn’t clear up an outfield log jam. Besides that, things have a way of clearing themselves up. These “so called” surplus of outfielders could turn into no outfielders actually becoming everyday players. More options gives them more opportunities. I remember when Brennan Davis was a top 25 prospect. Up until a year ago, Alcantara was a guy everyone was high on. Guys fade out. 

[squally1313]

46 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

These “so called” surplus of outfielders could turn into no outfielders actually becoming everyday players. More options gives them more opportunities. I remember when Brennan Davis was a top 25 prospect. Up until a year ago, Alcantara was a guy everyone was high on. Guys fade out. 

These are all technically arguments to trade prospects while they still have value, no?

[Outshined_One]

I'm iffy on Kwan.  I like his game, I like his potential to repeat his production in 2027, and I think he'd make a good stopgap, but I also get the sense that he won't come cheap, and I also have to wonder if the Cubs might be better off pursuing someone with a different offensive profile since this team will need a power bat to replace Suzuki's production if he leaves.

I can see the arguments for and against making a deal for him, but I don't think the price or the outcome will be right for this team as it's currently constructed.

[Jason Ross]

1 hour ago, Nolo said:

That’s fair enough, just seems like a surplus of minor league OFers with PCA locked up, no?

These are famous last words. I love PCA and fully expect him to be great, but him falling off is in the realm of possibility. On top of that, there are three OF positions: LF and RF need filled too. 

None of this is to say we shouldn't consider trading from depth. Prospects are assets and the name of the game is to win a WS not the best Baseball America list. But I also think we should be careful to always consider depth and what not. Most prospects will eventually fail, but it's still a good idea to have them. 

[Rcal10]

22 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

These are all technically arguments to trade prospects while they still have value, no?

Yes. But maybe wait a bit to see if they are actually any good. So Sorrel and Bailey even have value yet? Both those guys were just drafted. Also, maybe if you do trade them get someone better than a guy within one year of free agency who is good, but not elite. I am fine with trading prospects, but you also need them to eventually step up or you will have a team of 30+ players all either near the end of their careers or a year from FA. 

[squally1313]

15 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Yes. But maybe wait a bit to see if they are actually any good. So Sorrel and Bailey even have value yet? Both those guys were just drafted. Also, maybe if you do trade them get someone better than a guy within one year of free agency who is good, but not elite. I am fine with trading prospects, but you also need them to eventually step up or you will have a team of 30+ players all either near the end of their careers or a year from FA. 

Well it's obviously not a binary, don't trade any prospects v empty the farm system decision. I'm just saying it goes both ways. We are in a window where we are very much trying to win games and compete in the playoffs, and there's a pretty low likelihood that consistent PAs are available at least 4 positions (CF, 3B, SS, 2B), probably 5 unless Busch takes another step back.

Yes, we'll eventually need to fill those positions, but 2027 wins are more important than 2030 wins, and the nature of the draft and IFA and everything else means that the prospect pool will get constant reinforcements. Pretty much every prospect we're talking about right now, from recent draft picks like Sorrel and Bailey to higher level guys like Ramirez, Ayers, Hartshorn....was anyone really talking about them a year ago? Which isn't an indictment on their value, it's more a statement that guys will pop up every year. 

I'm fine with the arguments that there are plenty of ABs to go around. But the point of trading v free agency is that trading lowers the cost because you're giving up a thing that has value. You shouldn't be trading valuable prospects for 30+ pitchers with one year left besides in a doomsday deadline situation we just had. If those are your options, then yes, go to free agency. But is there not a pitching equivalent to Pedro Ramirez out there? We suck at pitching as an organization, there has to be teams that suck at developing offense. 

[Bertz]

48 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

These are famous last words. I love PCA and fully expect him to be great, but him falling off is in the realm of possibility. On top of that, there are three OF positions: LF and RF need filled too. 

None of this is to say we shouldn't consider trading from depth. Prospects are assets and the name of the game is to win a WS not the best Baseball America list. But I also think we should be careful to always consider depth and what not. Most prospects will eventually fail, but it's still a good idea to have them. 

Yeah it's great that we have five fun LHH OF/1B types, and at some point there will need to be a culling, but those guys collectively have 1500 pro plate appearances and only about 10% of them have been above A ball. 

I feel like this group definitely shouldn't all still be here 15 months from now, but making a move this winter feels like poor timing.

[Nolo]

2 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

Well Bailey is a first baseman. So he doesn’t clear up an outfield log jam. 

Yeah I was wrong on him, I wouldn’t trade Bailey at this point that dude is a unit.

The expendables for me are Alcantara, Ramirez or Shaw not both, Sorrell, Triantos, Murray Jr, Kepley. Maybe Kaleb Wing. Maybe Ethan Conrad if the price is right. 

I wouldn’t consider trading arms like Wiggins, Caple, or Townsend at this point. There’s a price for everything though. 

Except Ayers and Hartshorn currently untouchable.

 

 

 

[Geographyhater8888]

16 hours ago, Outshined_One said:

I'm iffy on Kwan.  I like his game, I like his potential to repeat his production in 2027, and I think he'd make a good stopgap, but I also get the sense that he won't come cheap, and I also have to wonder if the Cubs might be better off pursuing someone with a different offensive profile since this team will need a power bat to replace Suzuki's production if he leaves.

I can see the arguments for and against making a deal for him, but I don't think the price or the outcome will be right for this team as it's currently constructed.

I wouldn’t mind some diversity in the lineup. A 110-115 wRC+ is the same whether it’s packaged with 30 home runs or 3 home runs. I’d much rather have Suzuki but it’s doubtful that he comes back, and you’re stuck playing music chairs with free agent vets to bet you 88-90 wins and an NLDS ceiling. 

Edited 6 hours ago by Geographyhater8888

[JBears79]

I think Kwan is definitely someone Jed will kick the tires on. He fits his defensive minded profile and is a cheap bridge guy from Happ to whoever comes next. 

[Nolo]

welcome to the off season. 

[Jason Ross]

1 hour ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

I wouldn’t mind some diversity in the lineup. A 110-115 wRC+ is the same whether it’s packaged with 30 home runs or 3 home runs. I’d much rather have Suzuki but it’s doubtful that he comes back, and you’re stuck playing music chairs with free agent vets to bet you 88-90 wins and an NLDS ceiling. 

I mean, I'm not sure the Cubs are really missing a Kwan-style bat right now. They were 6th best in K-rate last season and are set to lose one of their biggest offenders in Ian Happ. They have multiple heavy-contact type hitters (Hoerner, Bregman, as examples). His xwOBA is next to identical to Hoerner and he hit 3 home runs last year; less than Nico. They're incredibly comparable bats in a lot of ways (Kwan does walk more but the Cubs were tied in walk-rate last year as the best team).

That isn't me saying we should/shouldn't look into Kwan - leave no stone unturned - but I don't think he's really bringing the diversity to the lineup you think he is.

[Geographyhater8888]

12 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

I mean, I'm not sure the Cubs are really missing a Kwan-style bat right now. They were 6th best in K-rate last season and are set to lose one of their biggest offenders in Ian Happ. They have multiple heavy-contact type hitters (Hoerner, Bregman, as examples).

That isn't me saying we should/shouldn't look into Kwan - leave no stone unturned - but I don't think he's really bringing the diversity to the lineup you think he is.

A bat to ball/contact hitter who gets on base at a high clip would play well in a stadium where the wind is blowing in on any given night. 
 

He’s more of a Happ replacement than a Suzuki replacement. There’s no Suzuki replacement available.

Edited 4 hours ago by Geographyhater8888

[Nolo]

How are we feeling about Trevor Rogers? The more I watch his highlight reels, the more I like him. I don't think he's the ace we need, but he's definitely a very solid #2-3 anchor.