Cubs Pre-Offseason Mega Thread

[Geographyhater8888]

18 hours ago, Post Count Padder said:

I would rather keep Happ. I like Happ to post better offensive and defensive numbers in LF. 

I know Happ is streaky and didn't have the best summer but he's overall been solid and think he gets an unfair rap. And there are honestly not many better options out there.

I don’t think Its one or the other depending on how affordable Ward is and Happs willingness to sign a 2/$36 (too low)? Happ is a platoon bat at this point in his career who didn’t have that second gear in him to finish with his usual 115-120 wRC+. He’s declined from 121 in 2024 to 116 to 108. His K rate was way up too. 

Ward can handle both sides as an every day bat at a cheaper price. But having both are an option.

Edited Sunday at 12:32 PM by Geographyhater8888

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

I don’t think Its one or the other depending on how affordable Ward is and Happs willingness to sign a 2/$36 (too low)? Happ is a platoon bat at this point in his career who didn’t have that second gear in him to finish with his usual 115-120 wRC+. He’s declined from 121 in 2024 to 116 to 108. His K rate was way up too. 

Ward can handle both sides as an every day bat at a cheaper price. But having both are an option.

The Ward you are referring to went from 36 homers in ‘25 to 7  in ‘26. OPS+ from 120+ to 94. He is 32 years old. If Happ is in a steady decline at 32, why would be think Ward isn’t in a free fall at 32? He should be cheaper. Way cheaper. And using the logic that if a guy has a bad year at 32, he is no longer any good, he shouldn’t be considered at all. At least not by the guys who are writing Happ off because of a bad season at 32. 

[Geographyhater8888]

21 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

The Ward you are referring to went from 36 homers in ‘25 to 7  in ‘26. OPS+ from 120+ to 94. He is 32 years old. If Happ is in a steady decline at 32, why would be think Ward isn’t in a free fall at 32? He should be cheaper. Way cheaper. And using the logic that if a guy has a bad year at 32, he is no longer any good, he shouldn’t be considered at all. At least not by the guys who are writing Happ off because of a bad season at 32. 

He finished with a 108 wRC+, the same as Happ. Ideally he’s also cheaper coming off a disappointing season with less of a pedigree of success. It’s not a one or the other situation, and at least with Ward he won’t have to platoon. You can sign both for the right price. He’s a Suzuki replacement more than a Happ replacement. 

Edited Sunday at 01:14 PM by Geographyhater8888

[Rcal10]

13 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

He finished with a 108 wRC+, the same as Happ. Ideally he’s also cheaper coming off a disappointing season with less of a pedigree of success. It’s not a one or the other situation, and at least with Ward he won’t have to platoon. You can sign both for the right price. He’s a Suzuki replacement more than a Happ replacement. 

I don’t know where to find the wRC+ you are showing. I didn’t think they were the same. But OPS+ is definitely Ward at 94, which is bad. We don’t need another bat in the line up less than league average. He would be an awful Suzuki replacement unless someone expects a bounce back year after a terrible season at 32 years old. Considering it doesn’t appear many people think Happ can do that, I’m not sure why anyone would think Ward can. I’m just not interested in spending money on a guy clearly inferior to Happ and Suzuki. He will probably still cost $10M and is a huge drop off from Seiya. 
I realize Happ might have to platoon more than ever before, but at least on the strong side of the platoon he had a very solid year. Ward wasn’t strong anywhere. I know this isn’t Ward versus Happ or Suzuki. I’m just saying, I am not interested in Ward. I would hope they can do better, regardless of what happens with Happ or Seiya. 

[Geographyhater8888]

17 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I don’t know where to find the wRC+ you are showing. I didn’t think they were the same. But OPS+ is definitely Ward at 94, which is bad. We don’t need another bat in the line up less than league average. He would be an awful Suzuki replacement unless someone expects a bounce back year after a terrible season at 32 years old. Considering it doesn’t appear many people think Happ can do that, I’m not sure why anyone would think Ward can. I’m just not interested in spending money on a guy clearly inferior to Happ and Suzuki. He will probably still cost $10M and is a huge drop off from Seiya. 
I realize Happ might have to platoon more than ever before, but at least on the strong side of the platoon he had a very solid year. Ward wasn’t strong anywhere. I know this isn’t Ward versus Happ or Suzuki. I’m just saying, I am not interested in Ward. I would hope they can do better, regardless of what happens with Happ or Seiya. 

There are no good Suzuki replacements besides Arozarena. And if they’re unwilling to give Suzuki a 5 year deal then there’s no way they’ll give one to Arozarena.

The difference between wOBA and OPS is how they weight on base outcomes. A hitter who goes 0-4 with 6 walks has the same OPS as a guy who goes 3/10 with 3 singles. Hitter A has a 420 wOBA (wRC+ adjusts it for league average and park factor) or somewhere in that ballpark and hitter b is at roughly 270. Ward got on base. Not sure where his slug went, but he’s an option.

Edited Sunday at 01:54 PM by Geographyhater8888

[Rcal10]

21 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

There are no good Suzuki replacements besides Arozarena. And if they’re unwilling to give Suzuki a 5 year deal then there’s no way they’ll give one to Arozarena.

The difference between wOBA and OPS is how they weight on base outcomes. A hitter who goes 0-4 with 6 walks has the same OPS as a guy who goes 3/10 with 3 singles. Hitter A has a 420 wOBA (wRC+ adjusts it for league average and park factor) or somewhere in that ballpark and hitter b is at roughly 270. Ward got on base. Not sure where his slug went, but he’s an option.

Still not seeing Ward at 108, same as Happ. I see Ward at 102, Happ at 107 and Suzuki at 134, wRC+. That said, I guess I am just not a fan of Ward. I would rather just put Shaw out there and save some money. Use it for pitching. Or, trade Shaw for an outfielder who would be more value than Ward. TBH, not looking forward to many of the options I am seeing for COF. 

[mk49]

So, what went wrong with Ward (new team)?  I checked his stats quickly, and the wRC+ in the 2nd half was 50, and SLG was under 200. 

[Geographyhater8888]

5 minutes ago, mk49 said:

So, what went wrong with Ward (new team)?  I checked his stats quickly, and the wRC+ in the 2nd half was 50, and SLG was under 200. 

He’s historically streaky but that’s not a typical slump. He changed his approach by trading power for walks. You can’t chalk it up to T Mobile park either because his wRC+ -1 on the road. 

[Rcal10]

I am starting to like the idea of Bauers for the Cubs. He would have to be the DH, but at least it adds a bat. He shouldn’t cost that much. Maybe similar to Ward. And actually his splits are solid against left handed pitching. So even though he is a left handed bat, he can play 1st when they want to sit Busch against a lefty. I know Jason brought him up a few days ago. I would rather go with him then Ward. 

[Bertz]

There are broadly 4 categories of outfielders available this winter:

1. Good players coming off of a career year - Suzuki, Arozarena

2. Good players coming off of a bit of a down year - Happ, Ward, Grisham

3. Big time buy lows options: previously good players who had either a disastrous '26 or a couple down years in a row - Luis Robert, Dalton Varsho, Cedric Mullins

4. Platoon Bats - Michael Conforto, Tyrone Taylor, Ramon Laureano, etc. etc.

I personally don't expect a lot of daylight between those top 5 guys going forward,  so grabbing one guy from Group 2 and one guy from 3 or 4, ideally both lefties, feels like the obviously right call?

[Rcal10]

29 minutes ago, Bertz said:

There are broadly 4 categories of outfielders available this winter:

1. Good players coming off of a career year - Suzuki, Arozarena

2. Good players coming off of a bit of a down year - Happ, Ward, Grisham

3. Big time buy lows options: previously good players who had either a disastrous '26 or a couple down years in a row - Luis Robert, Dalton Varsho, Cedric Mullins

4. Platoon Bats - Michael Conforto, Tyrone Taylor, Ramon Laureano, etc. etc.

I personally don't expect a lot of daylight between those top 5 guys going forward,  so grabbing one guy from Group 2 and one guy from 3 or 4, ideally both lefties, feels like the obviously right call?

They can do what you are suggesting. And it does make sense. But I don’t think there is an “obvious” right call for how to move forward. 

[I owned a Suzuki]

In a very Cub like move....I would like to see the Cubs take a within reason shot on Brandon Woodruff. 

[Stratos]

2 hours ago, I owned a Suzuki said:

In a very Cub like move....I would like to see the Cubs take a within reason shot on Brandon Woodruff. 

There's some interesting buy-low SP this winter.  I think they'll grab a couple of those along with some more reliable SP.

[Stratos]

5 hours ago, Bertz said:

There are broadly 4 categories of outfielders available this winter:

1. Good players coming off of a career year - Suzuki, Arozarena

2. Good players coming off of a bit of a down year - Happ, Ward, Grisham

3. Big time buy lows options: previously good players who had either a disastrous '26 or a couple down years in a row - Luis Robert, Dalton Varsho, Cedric Mullins

4. Platoon Bats - Michael Conforto, Tyrone Taylor, Ramon Laureano, etc. etc.

I personally don't expect a lot of daylight between those top 5 guys going forward,  so grabbing one guy from Group 2 and one guy from 3 or 4, ideally both lefties, feels like the obviously right call?

Yes.   They could also make a trade however.

[Geographyhater8888]

I wouldn’t mind Peralta either. Unless he’s dealing with an underlying injury, there’s a good pitcher somewhere in him and played himself out of a big $ multi year deal. 

[mul21]

22 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

I am starting to like the idea of Bauers for the Cubs. He would have to be the DH, but at least it adds a bat. He shouldn’t cost that much. Maybe similar to Ward. And actually his splits are solid against left handed pitching. So even though he is a left handed bat, he can play 1st when they want to sit Busch against a lefty. I know Jason brought him up a few days ago. I would rather go with him then Ward. 

Brewers voodoo magic terrifies me with him.

[Rcal10]

4 minutes ago, mul21 said:

Brewers voodoo magic terrifies me with him.

I get it. There is also the “So Cub” reason not to do it. Meaning he becomes a Cub and goes back to sucking. But, I am staying away from those narratives. Just looking at strictly who is available and at what cost. Have to stop viewing the Brewers as lucky and somehow having the ability to sprinkle pixie dust over a player and make him good. Also have to stop caring like every time the Cubs do something it is wrong. Just focus on the player, period. Brewers didn’t do any magic with Bauers. They may have done something to fix him, but it isn’t magic. He can carry over his newfound ability to a new team. 

[mul21]

4 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I get it. There is also the “So Cub” reason not to do it. Meaning he becomes a Cub and goes back to sucking. But, I am staying away from those narratives. Just looking at strictly who is available and at what cost. Have to stop viewing the Brewers as lucky and somehow having the ability to sprinkle pixie dust over a player and make him good. Also have to stop caring like every time the Cubs do something it is wrong. Just focus on the player, period. Brewers didn’t do any magic with Bauers. They may have done something to fix him, but it isn’t magic. He can carry over his newfound ability to a new team. 

That's all reasonable outside of the fact that I think they're cheating somehow and he's a beneficiary.

[Bertz]

21 minutes ago, mul21 said:

Brewers voodoo magic terrifies me with him.

Late bloomers happen, but him having one season of track record and no defensive value has me pretty out on him.  Median outcome going forward feels pretty close to what we just got out of Michael Conforto.  That's nice, I'm hoping we can get that again (whether from Conforto or someone else), but it's not something I'd pay a premium for.

[Rcal10]

31 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Late bloomers happen, but him having one season of track record and no defensive value has me pretty out on him.  Median outcome going forward feels pretty close to what we just got out of Michael Conforto.  That's nice, I'm hoping we can get that again (whether from Conforto or someone else), but it's not something I'd pay a premium for.

I see him as someone who can play a little left field, play some first base and DH. He also hit righties as well as lefties, which is where he differs from Conforto. Also means he can play 1st against a tough lefty. Something else Conforto can’t do.
That said, if he is going to cost $16M-$20M annual and for 4 years, I would possibly move on from him. As you said, he did it one year. If his offers are cheaper because teams want to see more years of solid offense or if he wanted a one year deal to prove he can do it again to get a better deal the next year, I would like him. Basically, if it came down to him or Ward and the same salary, I would go with the left handed bat of Bauers.

[gflore34]

2 hours ago, mul21 said:

Brewers voodoo magic terrifies me with him.

I suspect the Brewers were surprised by his performance as well, I do not think he was plan A for them.  It just happens they had to go with him and he had - surprise - a big year, a career year at the most convenient time.  He's probably not a 3+ WAR player going forward, he's probably more a replacement level player.  Wouldn't he be looking for a long term big payday?  If so, the Brewers won't give to him, don't believe Cubs should either.

[Jason Ross]

53 minutes ago, gflore34 said:

I suspect the Brewers were surprised by his performance as well, I do not think he was plan A for them.  It just happens they had to go with him and he had - surprise - a big year, a career year at the most convenient time.  He's probably not a 3+ WAR player going forward, he's probably more a replacement level player.  Wouldn't he be looking for a long term big payday?  If so, the Brewers won't give to him, don't believe Cubs should either.

I think calling him "most likely a replacement level player" is probably too far. I think we should be a little skeptical, but we have to find reasons for the skepticism past "he hasn't done it before". He wouldn't be the first older breakout. 

For example, what red flags do we have? His 27% K% rate isn't great, but it's not super-high. Now the whiff numbers are really bad, but he tends to balance this out with swing choice. It's a good way to help fix that in some fashion. It's a normal, elevated K% for a power hitting player. His wOBA was .381, his xwOBA was .371. A .371 xwOBA is very good. He was good against both LHP and RHP. He didn't slow down and "get got" posting a 142 wRC+ in the first half a 143 wRC+ in the second. He posted elite-elite batted ball data and elite chase rates (93rd percentile). The one red flag I can find in his game is that he rocked a .339 BABIP. He had a .266 BA and a .253 xBA. I think we can probably think that the BABIP won't stick that high for someone with a 34th percentile sprint speed. 

Another thing, is that Bauers was expected to be good a while back. He was a 50 FV prospect. People loved the bat. It obviously took a long time for him to figure it out, but this isn't entirely out of left field, either of some guy everyone thought sucked from the start of time. 

Would I treat him like a 140 wRC+ hitter with track record? Hell no, he's 31 and did this once. But when we dive under the hood, there's barely any red flags here too that stand out, either. I think he'll probably be a pretty good hitter moving forward for a bit of time. He might see the whiff rate end up leading to higher and higher K's especially as the bat speed declines with age. 34+ might be a bit ugly. But I think the next 2-3 years is probably going to be pretty good for Bauers, too.

[gflore34]

5 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

I think calling him "most likely a replacement level player" is probably too far. I think we should be a little skeptical, but we have to find reasons for the skepticism past "he hasn't done it before". He wouldn't be the first older breakout. 

For example, what red flags do we have? His 27% K% rate isn't great, but it's not super-high. It's a normal, elevated K% for a power hitting player. His wOBA was .381, his xwOBA was .371. A .371 xwOBA is very good. He was good against both LHP and RHP. He didn't slow down and "get got" posting a 142 wRC+ in the first half a 143 wRC+ in the second. He posted elite-elite batted ball data and elite chase rates (93rd percentile). The one red flag I can find in his game is that he rocked a .339 BABIP. He had a .266 BA and a .253 xBA. I think we can probably think that the BABIP won't stick that high for someone with a 34th percentile sprint speed. 

Another thing, is that Bauers was expected to be good a while back. He was a 50 FV prospect. People loved the bat. It obviously took a long time for him to figure it out, but this isn't entirely out of left field, either of some guy everyone thought sucked from the start of time. 

Would I treat him like a 140 wRC+ hitter with track record? Hell no, he's 31 and did this once. But when we dive under the hood, there's barely any red flags here too that stand out, either. I think he'll probably be a pretty good hitter moving forward for a bit of time. 

Do you believe he'll looking for the big payday in both years and dollars?  If so, is he worth it?

[Jason Ross]

11 minutes ago, gflore34 said:

Do you believe he'll looking for the big payday in both years and dollars?  If so, is he worth it?

I think he's going to get a good pay day by someone. FA is pretty deep on arms but thin on hitters. I think some teams are going to be scared away by the DH-factor, but at the same time, the scarcity of hitters makes me think someone is going to pay up. Let's assume he's mostly a good hitter moving forward and has seasons of decline (fWAR) of: 2.5, 2, 1.5, 1.0, .5 through age 32-36. That's 7.5 wins over five seasons. Teams are paying ~9.5m-11m per win. I think if you add in a little market scarcity, you'll see someone give him like five years and somewhere between $75-90m total. He also feels like a player I can see one of these "smaller" market teams (Pittsburgh, Athletic types...not a prediction just a type) getting excited about and going to grab him at higher than market value just to secure him. Just vibes though, could be wrong.

There could be a 1-year heavy AAV+opt out situation for him to re-hit FA at age-32 if he's getting squeezed, but I don't think he will, If he was like, 29 and hitting FA I think he'd be more open to like a three year thing, but my guess is he'd rather have some years. In a market with less offense, he could look at lower pay, but just think in this market he'll get the years due to scarcity. 

 

[Rcal10]

47 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

I think he's going to get a good pay day by someone. FA is pretty deep on arms but thin on hitters. I think some teams are going to be scared away by the DH-factor, but at the same time, the scarcity of hitters makes me think someone is going to pay up. Let's assume he's mostly a good hitter moving forward and has seasons of decline (fWAR) of: 2.5, 2, 1.5, 1.0, .5 through age 32-36. That's 7.5 wins over five seasons. Teams are paying ~9.5m-11m per win. I think if you add in a little market scarcity, you'll see someone give him like five years and somewhere between $75-90m total. He also feels like a player I can see one of these "smaller" market teams (Pittsburgh, Athletic types...not a prediction just a type) getting excited about and going to grab him at higher than market value just to secure him. Just vibes though, could be wrong.

There could be a 1-year heavy AAV+opt out situation for him to re-hit FA at age-32 if he's getting squeezed, but I don't think he will, If he was like, 29 and hitting FA I think he'd be more open to like a three year thing, but my guess is he'd rather have some years. In a market with less offense, he could look at lower pay, but just think in this market he'll get the years due to scarcity. 

 

So I was thinking  of him similar to what Ryan O’Hearn got. 2/$29. Maybe even first year at $14 with a player opt out and a second year at $15M or $1M buyout. O’Hearn wasn’t coming off as good a season as Bauers just had, but his success with the bat was a little longer. Maybe even add a 3rd year option similar to the first one he had. He would be guaranteed $44M but could also opt out after year one or two. 

Edited 11 hours ago by Rcal10