Cubs Pre-Offseason Mega Thread

[Geographyhater8888]

18 hours ago, Post Count Padder said:

I would rather keep Happ. I like Happ to post better offensive and defensive numbers in LF. 

I know Happ is streaky and didn't have the best summer but he's overall been solid and think he gets an unfair rap. And there are honestly not many better options out there.

I don’t think Its one or the other depending on how affordable Ward is and Happs willingness to sign a 2/$36 (too low)? Happ is a platoon bat at this point in his career who didn’t have that second gear in him to finish with his usual 115-120 wRC+. He’s declined from 121 in 2024 to 116 to 108. His K rate was way up too. 

Ward can handle both sides as an every day bat at a cheaper price. But having both are an option.

Edited 9 hours ago by Geographyhater8888

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

I don’t think Its one or the other depending on how affordable Ward is and Happs willingness to sign a 2/$36 (too low)? Happ is a platoon bat at this point in his career who didn’t have that second gear in him to finish with his usual 115-120 wRC+. He’s declined from 121 in 2024 to 116 to 108. His K rate was way up too. 

Ward can handle both sides as an every day bat at a cheaper price. But having both are an option.

The Ward you are referring to went from 36 homers in ‘25 to 7  in ‘26. OPS+ from 120+ to 94. He is 32 years old. If Happ is in a steady decline at 32, why would be think Ward isn’t in a free fall at 32? He should be cheaper. Way cheaper. And using the logic that if a guy has a bad year at 32, he is no longer any good, he shouldn’t be considered at all. At least not by the guys who are writing Happ off because of a bad season at 32. 

[Geographyhater8888]

21 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

The Ward you are referring to went from 36 homers in ‘25 to 7  in ‘26. OPS+ from 120+ to 94. He is 32 years old. If Happ is in a steady decline at 32, why would be think Ward isn’t in a free fall at 32? He should be cheaper. Way cheaper. And using the logic that if a guy has a bad year at 32, he is no longer any good, he shouldn’t be considered at all. At least not by the guys who are writing Happ off because of a bad season at 32. 

He finished with a 108 wRC+, the same as Happ. Ideally he’s also cheaper coming off a disappointing season with less of a pedigree of success. It’s not a one or the other situation, and at least with Ward he won’t have to platoon. You can sign both for the right price. He’s a Suzuki replacement more than a Happ replacement. 

Edited 9 hours ago by Geographyhater8888

[Rcal10]

13 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

He finished with a 108 wRC+, the same as Happ. Ideally he’s also cheaper coming off a disappointing season with less of a pedigree of success. It’s not a one or the other situation, and at least with Ward he won’t have to platoon. You can sign both for the right price. He’s a Suzuki replacement more than a Happ replacement. 

I don’t know where to find the wRC+ you are showing. I didn’t think they were the same. But OPS+ is definitely Ward at 94, which is bad. We don’t need another bat in the line up less than league average. He would be an awful Suzuki replacement unless someone expects a bounce back year after a terrible season at 32 years old. Considering it doesn’t appear many people think Happ can do that, I’m not sure why anyone would think Ward can. I’m just not interested in spending money on a guy clearly inferior to Happ and Suzuki. He will probably still cost $10M and is a huge drop off from Seiya. 
I realize Happ might have to platoon more than ever before, but at least on the strong side of the platoon he had a very solid year. Ward wasn’t strong anywhere. I know this isn’t Ward versus Happ or Suzuki. I’m just saying, I am not interested in Ward. I would hope they can do better, regardless of what happens with Happ or Seiya. 

[Geographyhater8888]

17 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I don’t know where to find the wRC+ you are showing. I didn’t think they were the same. But OPS+ is definitely Ward at 94, which is bad. We don’t need another bat in the line up less than league average. He would be an awful Suzuki replacement unless someone expects a bounce back year after a terrible season at 32 years old. Considering it doesn’t appear many people think Happ can do that, I’m not sure why anyone would think Ward can. I’m just not interested in spending money on a guy clearly inferior to Happ and Suzuki. He will probably still cost $10M and is a huge drop off from Seiya. 
I realize Happ might have to platoon more than ever before, but at least on the strong side of the platoon he had a very solid year. Ward wasn’t strong anywhere. I know this isn’t Ward versus Happ or Suzuki. I’m just saying, I am not interested in Ward. I would hope they can do better, regardless of what happens with Happ or Seiya. 

There are no good Suzuki replacements besides Arozarena. And if they’re unwilling to give Suzuki a 5 year deal then there’s no way they’ll give one to Arozarena.

The difference between wOBA and OPS is how they weight on base outcomes. A hitter who goes 0-4 with 6 walks has the same OPS as a guy who goes 3/10 with 3 singles. Hitter A has a 420 wOBA (wRC+ adjusts it for league average and park factor) or somewhere in that ballpark and hitter b is at roughly 270. Ward got on base. Not sure where his slug went, but he’s an option.

Edited 8 hours ago by Geographyhater8888

[Rcal10]

21 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

There are no good Suzuki replacements besides Arozarena. And if they’re unwilling to give Suzuki a 5 year deal then there’s no way they’ll give one to Arozarena.

The difference between wOBA and OPS is how they weight on base outcomes. A hitter who goes 0-4 with 6 walks has the same OPS as a guy who goes 3/10 with 3 singles. Hitter A has a 420 wOBA (wRC+ adjusts it for league average and park factor) or somewhere in that ballpark and hitter b is at roughly 270. Ward got on base. Not sure where his slug went, but he’s an option.

Still not seeing Ward at 108, same as Happ. I see Ward at 102, Happ at 107 and Suzuki at 134, wRC+. That said, I guess I am just not a fan of Ward. I would rather just put Shaw out there and save some money. Use it for pitching. Or, trade Shaw for an outfielder who would be more value than Ward. TBH, not looking forward to many of the options I am seeing for COF. 

[mk49]

So, what went wrong with Ward (new team)?  I checked his stats quickly, and the wRC+ in the 2nd half was 50, and SLG was under 200. 

[Geographyhater8888]

5 minutes ago, mk49 said:

So, what went wrong with Ward (new team)?  I checked his stats quickly, and the wRC+ in the 2nd half was 50, and SLG was under 200. 

He’s historically streaky but that’s not a typical slump. He changed his approach by trading power for walks. You can’t chalk it up to T Mobile park either because his wRC+ -1 on the road. 

[Rcal10]

I am starting to like the idea of Bauers for the Cubs. He would have to be the DH, but at least it adds a bat. He shouldn’t cost that much. Maybe similar to Ward. And actually his splits are solid against left handed pitching. So even though he is a left handed bat, he can play 1st when they want to sit Busch against a lefty. I know Jason brought him up a few days ago. I would rather go with him then Ward. 

[Bertz]

There are broadly 4 categories of outfielders available this winter:

1. Good players coming off of a career year - Suzuki, Arozarena

2. Good players coming off of a bit of a down year - Happ, Ward, Grisham

3. Big time buy lows options: previously good players who had either a disastrous '26 or a couple down years in a row - Luis Robert, Dalton Varsho, Cedric Mullins

4. Platoon Bats - Michael Conforto, Tyrone Taylor, Ramon Laureano, etc. etc.

I personally don't expect a lot of daylight between those top 5 guys going forward,  so grabbing one guy from Group 2 and one guy from 3 or 4, ideally both lefties, feels like the obviously right call?

[Rcal10]

29 minutes ago, Bertz said:

There are broadly 4 categories of outfielders available this winter:

1. Good players coming off of a career year - Suzuki, Arozarena

2. Good players coming off of a bit of a down year - Happ, Ward, Grisham

3. Big time buy lows options: previously good players who had either a disastrous '26 or a couple down years in a row - Luis Robert, Dalton Varsho, Cedric Mullins

4. Platoon Bats - Michael Conforto, Tyrone Taylor, Ramon Laureano, etc. etc.

I personally don't expect a lot of daylight between those top 5 guys going forward,  so grabbing one guy from Group 2 and one guy from 3 or 4, ideally both lefties, feels like the obviously right call?

They can do what you are suggesting. And it does make sense. But I don’t think there is an “obvious” right call for how to move forward. 

[I owned a Suzuki]

In a very Cub like move....I would like to see the Cubs take a within reason shot on Brandon Woodruff. 

[Stratos]

2 hours ago, I owned a Suzuki said:

In a very Cub like move....I would like to see the Cubs take a within reason shot on Brandon Woodruff. 

There's some interesting buy-low SP this winter.  I think they'll grab a couple of those along with some more reliable SP.

[Stratos]

5 hours ago, Bertz said:

There are broadly 4 categories of outfielders available this winter:

1. Good players coming off of a career year - Suzuki, Arozarena

2. Good players coming off of a bit of a down year - Happ, Ward, Grisham

3. Big time buy lows options: previously good players who had either a disastrous '26 or a couple down years in a row - Luis Robert, Dalton Varsho, Cedric Mullins

4. Platoon Bats - Michael Conforto, Tyrone Taylor, Ramon Laureano, etc. etc.

I personally don't expect a lot of daylight between those top 5 guys going forward,  so grabbing one guy from Group 2 and one guy from 3 or 4, ideally both lefties, feels like the obviously right call?

Yes.   They could also make a trade however.