Cubs Pre-Offseason Mega Thread

[Rcal10]

18 minutes ago, Tangled Up in Plaid said:

I know it was 12 years ago, but the Cubs signing the best free agent pitcher isn't unprecedented. Ricketts has the money, and even he has to realize we're desperately lacking in the area.

Actually Scherzer was the top FA pitcher the year Lester signed with the Cubs. But they did sign a high priced pitcher. Just not the top one. 

[Jason Ross]

8 hours ago, Tangled Up in Plaid said:

I know it was 12 years ago, but the Cubs signing the best free agent pitcher isn't unprecedented. Ricketts has the money, and even he has to realize we're desperately lacking in the area.

I'm going to preface this with this: Ricketts sucks, can't stand him on just about any level you can imagine. But I'm also not entirely sure the issue here is with Ricketts. For Tom I think his issue is year-over-year cash flow ("biblical losses" in Covid but ignores long term franchise equity growth, for example). Ricketts' isn't paying $400m up front, he's paying $40m a year for 10 years which is factored into the budget. 

That isn't to absolve him here, either. But too often it's a grenade hurled at Ricketts and for once, it might be a misplaced grenade. There is a full front office in there and how much it's a Jed/Carter thing versus simply a Tom thing is just impossible to know from where we sit.

As it pertains to Skubal, I'm not going to go into this offseason thinking the Cubs will be signing Skubal but I do think there will be real discussions internally and they know the price. If they sit down with Boras and talk Skubal, it won't be simply due diligence or thinking they're getting a discount. It would be with the idea of actually paying the market value there. 

[Derwood]

I just don't know what Skubal would see in Chicago that would persuade him that his opportunity to win is better than "Yankees/Dodgers/Red Sox/Other Big Money Team". You might say "money" but Cubs aren't known to blow other teams out of the water with offers. 

 

[Jason Ross]

20 minutes ago, Derwood said:

I just don't know what Skubal would see in Chicago that would persuade him that his opportunity to win is better than "Yankees/Dodgers/Red Sox/Other Big Money Team". You might say "money" but Cubs aren't known to blow other teams out of the water with offers. 

 

I think the same things can be said for most of the big money teams. Like the Yankees are currently losing to the Rays in the same fashion the Cubs are being beaten by the Brewers, the Red Sox won just as many playoff games this year as the Cubs..The Dodgers are their own thing, but remember, their owner is in massive legal trouble; who knows where that goes...

Not trying to cope here but I think we're being far too negative about the Chicago Cubs. We have a player who just had a top-30 season all time...he's 24 and signed long term. We had a second player in the top-10 of positional fWAR. Literally the best offensive unit in baseball last year despite losing Tucker (more losses incoming but also more additions would be incoming to, so how good 2027 is is "wait and see"). It's Chicago, not some podunk city in Kansas...I don't think it's a particularly hard sell. All of those teams can make similar arguments, so I don't want to make it seem like the Cubs have some advantage, either...just that I think we're really discounting the Cubs with statements like that.  Money is going to be the deciding factor regardless. 

If the Cubs sit down with Boras and Skubal they won't do so to waste their time. The Cubs have a pretty good working relationship with Boras. They may never sit down with him. I can't say they will win a bidding war if they do, I wouldn't expect him to sign him, but I also think it's probably a little more likely than some people give them (which is to say it's above "impossible" and "never going to happen" and more like "very unlikely")

[Bertz]

"This team will never XYZ" stuff is silly but I definitely do not think this winter is one where they're going to go ham on one player. 

There’s too many roster spots to fill, the farm is convalescing, and with the lockout you cant count on getting  a bunch of slick deals in February to try and help balance a mega deal.

[Nolo]

12 hours ago, Illiterate Scholar said:

There's a zero percent chance we sign Morejon as a reliever. However, as a starter, I could see it. He'd still be expensive, but that's a potential top of rotation starter at way less than a top of rotation price. 

Idk if we would turn *the* setup man for the current best bullpen in baseball to a starter. I think in Jed's interview he made it clear he would spend on BP arms.

Edited 15 hours ago by Nolo

[Geographyhater8888]

Cubs aren’t sitting on a pile of unspent money with a core full of young, pre arb top prospects like 2015-16. The time to go all in was the 24-26 offseasons. I’d be stunned if they wrote Skubal a blank check when they have this many needs and don’t have the future financial flexibility.

Unless Tom gives Jed an unlimited allowance.

[Nolo]

9 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

Cubs aren’t sitting on a pile of unspent money with a core full of young, pre arb top prospects like 2015-16. The time to go all in was the 24-26 offseasons. I’d be stunned if they wrote Skubal a blank check when they have this many needs and don’t have the future financial flexibility.

Unless Tom gives Jed an unlimited allowance.

There's about $100M coming off the books in F.A. alone this year too though. I'd like to keep one of Peterson or Boyd, and one of Suzuki or Happ. But there is some money to play with. Skubal money? Probably not. Elite bullpen arms? Yes. A very solid 1-2 guy? Yes.

• Kevin Gausman: $23 million

• Shota Imanaga: $22.02 million

• Ian Happ: $19 million

• Seiya Suzuki: $19 million

• Matthew Boyd: $17 million ($15M mutual option / $2M buyout)

• Clay Holmes: $13 million ($12M player option)

• David Peterson: $8.1 million

• Aaron Civale: $6 million

We aren't going to fill up our entire starting rotation and pen in free agents and trades, a lot of the success is still going to depend on guys like Brown, Cabrera, Steele, Palencia, Zeferjahn, etc.

Edited 15 hours ago by Nolo

[Geographyhater8888]

16 minutes ago, Nolo said:

There's about $100M coming off the books in F.A. alone this year too though. I'd like to keep one of Peterson or Boyd, and one of Suzuki or Happ. But there is some money to play with. Skubal money? Probably not. Elite bullpen arms? Yes. A very solid 1-2 guy? Yes.

• Kevin Gausman: $23 million

• Shota Imanaga: $22.02 million

• Ian Happ: $19 million

• Seiya Suzuki: $19 million

• Matthew Boyd: $17 million ($15M mutual option / $2M buyout)

• Clay Holmes: $13 million ($12M player option)

• David Peterson: $8.1 million

• Aaron Civale: $6 million

We aren't going to fill up our entire starting rotation and pen in free agents and trades, a lot of the success is still going to depend on guys like Brown, Cabrera, Steele, Palencia, Zeferjahn, etc.

Can’t depend on them. If they were healthy and rotation locks then maybe there’s a reality where they they spend top $ on Skubal. Right now, they’ll need 4 free agent starters just to be on the safe side, there’s no farm reinforcements either so that’s more $ used on depth, and of course you’ll likely be without your second best hitter with at least one corner outfield spot to fill and they sure as horsefeathers won’t sign Arozerena if they’re not paying Suzuki. $40-$45 million/year for Skubal?

Their competitive window has closed a bit. 

Edited 15 hours ago by Geographyhater8888

[Nolo]

35 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

Can’t depend on them. If they were healthy and rotation locks then maybe there’s a reality where they they spend top $ on Skubal. Right now, they’ll need 4 free agent starters just to be on the safe side, there’s no farm reinforcements either so that’s more $ used on depth, and of course you’ll likely be without your second best hitter with at least one corner outfield spot to fill and they sure as horsefeathers won’t sign Arozerena if they’re not paying Suzuki. $40-$45 million/year for Skubal?

Their competitive window has closed a bit. 

$40M/yr for Skubal, no. But $40M/yr for Peralta/Peterson/Morejon together, doable. That's just an example, but there are key pieces to fill: a true top of rotation guy, elite bullpen arm, OF. They will need to piece together with multiple guys I don't think going after Skubal is realistic. Dodgers will do what they can to keep him anyways I bet and we aren't outbidding these top teams for him. 

I understand we *can't* rely on Brown, Steele, Cabrera etc but we are going to have to. I expect them all to be locks for opening day but who knows after that, you're right we need depth, but we can add that with less expensive guys like Peterson. We still have Assad too.

Edited 14 hours ago by Nolo

[Rcal10]

I think soon enough we will know if we can count on Steele. If the Cubs tender him. IMO, that means they expect him to start the season healthy and be in the rotation. Cabrera is also going to start. I expect him to be better. With Brown, I have no idea what he can give the Cubs. I also think Garrett will be starting next year. They are not signing 4 pitchers this off season. I think they will add 2 certain starting pitchers and maybe with some luck, a 3rd guy. They are going to have to get something from guys like Steele, Cabrera, Brown, Garrett, Assad, Wiggins and later in the year Horton. Between those 7 guys they need probably 75-100 starts. Maybe even Civale and/or Rea are still here and start a few games. The remaining starts go to the pitchers they pick up this off season. 
It doesn’t look great, but it is not realistic to think the Cubs are going to go get 4 new starting pitchers. They don’t have the money to do it, assuming they cut some salary this year. 

[macarthur31]

I needed some time away.  After reading the thread so far, as well as watching Jed's presser last week, I'm in general alignment that:

• we'll extend the QOs to Happ and Suzuki; and OK with it if the former picks it up, and not expecting for the latter to give it any mind as he ends up in another NPB-alum friendly place like Toronto.
• Even if he could convert any/some combo of Shaw, Ramirez, Alcantara into 1-2 controlled cost starters, he still will likely devote the super majority of the FA war chest into pitching.
• Steele, Brown, Horton, Wiggins:  I'd lean pessimistic to pencil anyone save Steele to get more than 15 starts next season.
• The bullpen is not in a shambles.  I'm interested to see a full offseason for Palencia, Zeferjahn, Webb and Rolison.  We also have Maton coming back, hopefully with the knee healed up.  Perhaps some of that transfer money could be spent here to get some more velo/Ks, but this is a decent floor to work with.

 

Other things that come to mind:

 

• All in all, I'd rate the Shota experience as a win, and it provides us more intel on how NPB alum might fare in the Cubs rotation.  
• What's up with Hottovy?  I'm not necessarily calling for his ouster, but it's apparent that the Cubs will continue to examine it's pitching infrastructure.  I wouldn't be surprised if there's a mutual parting of the ways, and perhaps we'll see someone aligned with the Zombro-coaching tree steps in.
• Someone said this earlier on the thread - I wouldn't be against trading Hartshorn to secure cost-controlled starting pitching.  It's hard to imagine the hype on him getting any higher.
• If the assignment is to get to a 93 win floor team, then it's just daunting.  Outside of the starting rotation, they need to figure out the corner outfielders, a replacement for Carson Kelly, RH platoon for Busch.
• On the plus side, the infield is pretty set; and PCA elite defense gives them leeway to go more bat first in filling out the corner OF;
• Finally, the looming CBA battle just throws more complexity into the mix.

 

 

 

[Funky-daddy]

I would hate to trade Hartshorn. I guess I could stomach it if we got a controlled ace back but who would even be available? Not worth trading him for someone like Detmers imo 

[Outshined_One]

5 minutes ago, Funky-daddy said:

I would hate to trade Hartshorn. I guess I could stomach it if we got a controlled ace back but who would even be available? Not worth trading him for someone like Detmers imo 

I'll go ahead and say it, even though it's admittedly wishcasting: Paul Skenes.

He's now arb-eligible, and he had enough of a dip in 2026 that the Pirates might be willing to trade him off for a king's ransom if there are any concerns about his medicals going into 2027. I have zero inside information and the Pirates might think their window is just opening, which would throw this out the window, but they need bats and have enough pitching in their system that the right trade could shift their window from 2 years starting in 2027 to 5-7 years starting in 2028.

[Rcal10]

47 minutes ago, Outshined_One said:

I'll go ahead and say it, even though it's admittedly wishcasting: Paul Skenes.

He's now arb-eligible, and he had enough of a dip in 2026 that the Pirates might be willing to trade him off for a king's ransom if there are any concerns about his medicals going into 2027. I have zero inside information and the Pirates might think their window is just opening, which would throw this out the window, but they need bats and have enough pitching in their system that the right trade could shift their window from 2 years starting in 2027 to 5-7 years starting in 2028.

I think Skenes is a few starts away from TJ surgery. His velo was down last year and they were careful with him. I think if they do trade him it is because they believe he will eventually be shelved with a serious arm injury. 

[Irrelevant Dude]

On 10/4/2026 at 8:14 AM, Geographyhater8888 said:

Jaime Moyer makes sense as a new pitching coach. 

Or a 5th starter.

[Bertz]

Some Random names I like, and would guess I'll be much higher on than consensus.

Pitchers

Kevin Gausman - My #1 pitching target this winter. His pedestrian ERA belied how well he pitched for us. It sounds like he and his family really really loved Toronto and he might head back there. But if he doesn't end up north of the border he absolutely needs to settle down here

Tyler Mahle - It's gone under the radar a bit because the Braves are so otherwise interesting, but they made Mahle drop his arm angle a bit snd start throwing way more splitters and he magically turned into a #2 starter. He probably gives some of that back when the league gets more tape on his new form, but still he looks like a quality starter going forward

Jack Flaherty - There's not some super compelling "he was unlucky" or "here's one weird trick to fix him" guy. Instead it's kind of the opposite. Under the hood he appears to be largely the same guy he was two years ago, but the results have gone sideways. Feels like there's a good buy low opportunity here, and even if there's no rebound to be had he's a quality back-end guy

Position Players

Gary Sanchez - One of the tough things with bench bats is beyond money it's tough to get a quality guy to come to your team if there's no playing time to be had. Gary has enough oomph in his bat to be part of the RHH 1B/DH equation, and so I'm hoping he'd be willing to come be part of a crowded catcher room

Trent Grisham - Had a bit of a messy year due partially to bad batted ball luck but also proving that he's fully aged out of CF. If Happ doesn't take the QO I'd really try and get Grisham on a pillow deal (and wouldn't scream about going multi-year on him). I think his true talent is likely a ~110 wRC+ with notable but not damning L/R splits and strong COF defense....who's that sound like?

Jesus Sanchez - My favorite Conforto alternative. He's much more of a free swinger, but that comes with added juice in the bat. I have no idea what the hell happened to him in the field, but like Conforto this year I assume he'd mostly DH anyway. Also at 29 might be young enough for a full rebound to everyday player

 

[gflore34]

42 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I think Skenes is a few starts away from TJ surgery. His velo was down last year and they were careful with him. I think if they do trade him it is because they believe he will eventually be shelved with a serious arm injury. 

Took the words out of my mouth, it's Paul Skenes and all. Still, hard pass.

[Rcal10]

6 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Some Random names I like, and would guess I'll be much higher on than consensus.

Pitchers

Kevin Gausman - My #1 pitching target this winter. His pedestrian ERA belied how well he pitched for us. It sounds like he and his family really really loved Toronto and he might head back there. But if he doesn't end up north of the border he absolutely needs to settle down here

Tyler Mahle - It's gone under the radar a bit because the Braves are so otherwise interesting, but they made Mahle drop his arm angle a bit snd start throwing way more splitters and he magically turned into a #2 starter. He probably gives some of that back when the league gets more tape on his new form, but still he looks like a quality starter going forward

Jack Flaherty - There's not some super compelling "he was unlucky" or "here's one weird trick to fix him" guy. Instead it's kind of the opposite. Under the hood he appears to be largely the same guy he was two years ago, but the results have gone sideways. Feels like there's a good buy low opportunity here, and even if there's no rebound to be had he's a quality back-end guy

Position Players

Gary Sanchez - One of the tough things with bench bats is beyond money it's tough to get a quality guy to come to your team if there's no playing time to be had. Gary has enough oomph in his bat to be part of the RHH 1B/DH equation, and so I'm hoping he'd be willing to come be part of a crowded catcher room

Trent Grisham - Had a bit of a messy year due partially to bad batted ball luck but also proving that he's fully aged out of CF. If Happ doesn't take the QO I'd really try and get Grisham on a pillow deal (and wouldn't scream about going multi-year on him). I think his true talent is likely a ~110 wRC+ with notable but not damning L/R splits and strong COF defense....who's that sound like?

Jesus Sanchez - My favorite Conforto alternative. He's much more of a free swinger, but that comes with added juice in the bat. I have no idea what the hell happened to him in the field, but like Conforto this year I assume he'd mostly DH anyway. Also at 29 might be young enough for a full rebound to everyday player

 

I can see value in the pitchers you mentioned. I can see the Cubs interested there. Besides Mahle and Flaherty I can see guys like Holmes, Peterson, May and Peralta. As you mentioned, I think Gausman goes back to Toranto. If King opts out you can add him to the list too. Depending on who we get from this group, the Cubs could probably add 2 or 3 guys. 

[Stratos]

4 hours ago, Jason Ross said:

I think the same things can be said for most of the big money teams. Like the Yankees are currently losing to the Rays in the same fashion the Cubs are being beaten by the Brewers, the Red Sox won just as many playoff games this year as the Cubs..The Dodgers are their own thing, but remember, their owner is in massive legal trouble; who knows where that goes...

Not trying to cope here but I think we're being far too negative about the Chicago Cubs. We have a player who just had a top-30 season all time...he's 24 and signed long term. We had a second player in the top-10 of positional fWAR. Literally the best offensive unit in baseball last year despite losing Tucker (more losses incoming but also more additions would be incoming to, so how good 2027 is is "wait and see"). It's Chicago, not some podunk city in Kansas...I don't think it's a particularly hard sell. All of those teams can make similar arguments, so I don't want to make it seem like the Cubs have some advantage, either...just that I think we're really discounting the Cubs with statements like that.  Money is going to be the deciding factor regardless. 

If the Cubs sit down with Boras and Skubal they won't do so to waste their time. The Cubs have a pretty good working relationship with Boras. They may never sit down with him. I can't say they will win a bidding war if they do, I wouldn't expect him to sign him, but I also think it's probably a little more likely than some people give them (which is to say it's above "impossible" and "never going to happen" and more like "very unlikely")

Skubal might sign after the lockout anyways given the money involved.

[muntjack]

I like the idea of Mahle.  I'm not interested in signing a bunch of back- end-of-the-rotation types.  Depth is great, but you can't keep setting a low ceiling for your pitching staff.  

I was perhaps the loudest advocate for acquiring Cabrera. He was not good this season,  but I'm convinced the logic was sound.  Hopefully he tweaks things and gives us a dominant season or two.  

[Stratos]

6 hours ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

Cubs aren’t sitting on a pile of unspent money with a core full of young, pre arb top prospects like 2015-16. The time to go all in was the 24-26 offseasons. I’d be stunned if they wrote Skubal a blank check when they have this many needs and don’t have the future financial flexibility.

Unless Tom gives Jed an unlimited allowance.

The Cubs could use a few more good pre-arb players so we can spend more on pitching  Would be nice to fill our corner OF with those types.  Probably Shaw/ Ramirez/Alcantara next year in one position.  Maybe by sometime next year our other minor league OF can step up. 

If I were Jed i'd explore a trade for a young MLB-ready corner OF with an arm that could play in RF.  Someone better than Alcantara.  If they resign Happ I can't see Shaw's arm playing well in RF, he's more of a LF.  Shaw's range would play in RF though and could make up for that a bit.  I'm willing to trade Shaw with Ramirez on the team.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

I'm very interested in Trevor Rogers but I really have no idea what kind of deal he's going to command 

[gflore34]

26 minutes ago, Tangled Up in Plaid said:

I'm very interested in Trevor Rogers but I really have no idea what kind of deal he's going to command 

Me too, the stuff is there to be close to a TOR type, think it'll be less than Skubal.  Watch, the horsefeathers Dodgers will sign both of them, using some kind of horsefeathered-up creative financing involving payments into 22nd century.

Edited 8 hours ago by gflore34

[Bertz]

9 minutes ago, Tangled Up in Plaid said:

I'm very interested in Trevor Rogers but I really have no idea what kind of deal he's going to command 

Ranger Suarez money?  He's not as accomplished but the stuff is better and he's the only FA SP who checks all three of these modest boxes:

- Was good and healthy in 2026

- Does not have an injury history a mile long

- Is under 30