Marlins (Junk) vs Cubs (TBD): 09/22/26, 6:40 PM

[Stratos]

On the field Matt Shaw is a smooth-brained idiot who is not ready for prime time and the team puts him in positions to fail time and again.  All year the guy has looked like he'd rather be at home playing Fortnite.

Cabrera sucks and needs to be removed from the active roster for the rest of the year.

[chibears55]

Cubs need pitching next season...

If Pedro ready to take over 2B and Ayers is ready to go next season, would you trade Nico, Amaya, and Shaw for pitching. 

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, Andy said:

Which is why I blame Counsell more for that. People here don't like Shaw and I'm with that, but if he sucks at bunting, don't tell him to bunt. His chances of getting a hit, or even of making weak enough contact that it functioned as a bunt, were significantly higher than a successful bunt given what we've seen from him bunting.

And before he failed at the bunt again last night, it was a known fact he sucks at bunting because he failed one other time. Got it.
Him bunting in the 10th was the obvious play. Him pinch hitting in a key moment in the game, 6th inning or not, was an obvious choice considering Conforto has faced left handed pitching 9 times all year. There was nothing wrong with either decision by Counsell. It just didn’t work. As Jason said, maybe at 2-1 he takes the bunt off. I wouldn’t have, but I do understand that logic too. Hitters count. If Shaw gets the runner in when he pinch hit or if he either gets the bunt down or walks, which he probably would have done, had he let the 2-1 pitch go, no one is complaining about the decision. I acknowledge other possibilities did exist. Maybe just as reasonable. But I am also sure if Conforto batted and struck out several would be complaining that he should have been pinch hitting for. Or for those who didn’t like the bunt, had Shaw swing away and hit into a DP people would be complaining that he didn’t bunt. 

[Andy]

4 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Or for those who didn’t like the bunt, had Shaw swing away and hit into a DP people would be complaining that he didn’t bunt. 

Basically no one on this team is good at bunting except the people you don't want bunting (PCA), and Ian Happ, who notwithstanding his clutch hit last night is not generally a guy I want up with a guy on third and one out, was on deck. I was against the bunt regardless of result.

[squally1313]

15 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

Cubs need pitching next season...

If Pedro ready to take over 2B and Ayers is ready to go next season, would you trade Nico, Amaya, and Shaw for pitching. 

No

[Rcal10]

8 minutes ago, Andy said:

Basically no one on this team is good at bunting except the people you don't want bunting (PCA), and Ian Happ, who notwithstanding his clutch hit last night is not generally a guy I want up with a guy on third and one out, was on deck. I was against the bunt regardless of result.

I get it. I am not suggesting you weren’t against it. I am saying it is a very defendable decision, however. Happ next, would have probably been walked to load the bases for Nico. Him bunting wasn’t this egregiously bad decision. He just didn’t execute. Counsell does a lot of things I dont necessarily agree with. But most times his decision is defendable. As was this one. 

[gflore34]

10 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

No

To Nico.  Shaw? Most definitely a yes.   Can't wait for Shaw' swing and miss at anything and everything that'll be forthcoming this PS.  Somewhere in here was a mention of Counsell repeatedly putting Shaw in a position to fail.  He's putting him a position to play baseball, at which Shaw is not very good, WTF is Counsell supposed to do?

Edited 10 hours ago by gflore34

[squally1313]

3 minutes ago, gflore34 said:

To Nico.  Shaw? Most definitely a yes.

I'll send Shaw packing for entirely non-baseball reasons, so it's convenient he's giving us a bunch of baseball reasons to do so. 

If someone wants to give us pitching for Ramirez, they can take him too. .284 xwOBA and neutral defensive metrics (small sample size to be fair) doesn't exactly give me a lot of excitement at him being the Ian Happ replacement next year. 

[Rcal10]

16 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

I'll send Shaw packing for entirely non-baseball reasons, so it's convenient he's giving us a bunch of baseball reasons to do so. 

If someone wants to give us pitching for Ramirez, they can take him too. .284 xwOBA and neutral defensive metrics (small sample size to be fair) doesn't exactly give me a lot of excitement at him being the Ian Happ replacement next year. 

For me Ramirez or Shaw needs to be traded for pitching. Maybe one of them, Assad and a minor league prospect and get a young controlled pitcher back with at least 3 years of team control. Whoever isn’t traded can be part of a platoon in the outfield. Or trade the other for an outfielder. Shaw for Butler, as an example. 

[squally1313]

1 hour ago, Rcal10 said:

For me Ramirez or Shaw needs to be traded for pitching. Maybe one of them, Assad and a minor league prospect and get a young controlled pitcher back with at least 3 years of team control. Whoever isn’t traded can be part of a platoon in the outfield. Or trade the other for an outfielder. Shaw for Butler, as an example. 

Sign one of our two outfielders. Figure out a cheap platoon for the other one. I'd honestly be fine with Conforto/Alcantara. Find a DH type and a better than Triantos/Murray util type if we actually trade both Ramirez/Shaw, give one of Trianson/Murray a spot, veteran catcher (ideally Kelly), whatever for the last spot. 

Separately, went down the 2027 cap space rabbit hole and noticed that FG has the 2026 number at $264,123,824 at the moment, with the second threshold being $264m. I know it's too rough of an estimate to really worry about, but do we care?

[Rcal10]

21 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Sign one of our two outfielders. Figure out a cheap platoon for the other one. I'd honestly be fine with Conforto/Alcantara. Find a DH type and a better than Triantos/Murray util type if we actually trade both Ramirez/Shaw, give one of Trianson/Murray a spot, veteran catcher (ideally Kelly), whatever for the last spot. 

Separately, went down the 2027 cap space rabbit hole and noticed that FG has the 2026 number at $264,123,824 at the moment, with the second threshold being $264m. I know it's too rough of an estimate to really worry about, but do we care?

I am fine with this plan as well. I think if they offer both Seiya and Happ a QO, Happ might take it. If neither does I would really love to see Seiya back. I am fine with trading either or both of Shaw and Ramirez, but they need a solid controlled staring pitcher. 

[abuck1220]

seeing that much red in batting categories on nico's page makes me think all advanced metrics are wrong and false and made up and everything i've ever learned about them are a lie because all that horsefeathers guy does is roll over grounders to ss and fly out to shallow rf and do that dumb head bob thing. 

anyway, also pretty wild the cubs played a 12 inning game that featured 1,000 at bats (most of them terrible) and taylor didn't take one of them. 

[Rcal10]

3 minutes ago, abuck1220 said:

seeing that much red in batting categories on nico's page makes me think all advanced metrics are wrong and false and made up and everything i've ever learned about them are a lie because all that horsefeathers guy does is roll over grounders to ss and fly out to shallow rf and do that dumb head bob thing. 

anyway, also pretty wild the cubs played a 12 inning game that featured 1,000 at bats (most of them terrible) and taylor didn't take one of them. 

Probably way more likely your view of Hoerner is wrong. Not the advanced stats. Stay with it though. Happ might be gone next year so Cubs fans will need a guy to irrationally hate. Your nominee could be Nico. 

[abuck1220]

i'm not an irrational happ hater. 

nico has sucked this year offensively, that's not really a debate. maybe his shoulda coulda woulda numbers are fine, but his actual production has been bad. 

[squally1313]

28 minutes ago, abuck1220 said:

seeing that much red in batting categories on nico's page makes me think all advanced metrics are wrong and false and made up and everything i've ever learned about them are a lie because all that horsefeathers guy does is roll over grounders to ss and fly out to shallow rf and do that dumb head bob thing. 

he's been a tough watch this year for long stretches but he's also, to the extent you buy into it, basically the exact same player he's always been

exit velocity the last three years is 85.7/86.7/86.0. GB rate is 44.3/45.3/43.5. pull rate is 34.1/37.9/33.3.

[abuck1220]

i get all that, and it gives me some hope he will bounce back in the future.

but his actual production this year has been much worse than in years past and simply not good. 

[squally1313]

Just now, abuck1220 said:

i get all that, and it gives me some hope he will bounce back in the future.

but his actual production this year has been much worse than in years past and simply not good. 

yeah i don't disagree. his clutch/high leverage stats are especially bad, i think, too, which probably colors everyone's memory. given the contract, i'm encouraged that there doesn't seem to be much to worry about long term. but it would certainly be nice if he remembered how to do that inside out the ball 190 feet into right center that he seemingly can master once or twice a year. 

[Stratos]

1 hour ago, Rcal10 said:

I am fine with this plan as well. I think if they offer both Seiya and Happ a QO, Happ might take it. If neither does I would really love to see Seiya back. I am fine with trading either or both of Shaw and Ramirez, but they need a solid controlled staring pitcher. 

I'm fine with trading anyone in the entire org besides PCA if it makes the team better.

[We Got The Whole 9]

21 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

yeah i don't disagree. his clutch/high leverage stats are especially bad, i think, too, which probably colors everyone's memory. given the contract, i'm encouraged that there doesn't seem to be much to worry about long term. but it would certainly be nice if he remembered how to do that inside out the ball 190 feet into right center that he seemingly can master once or twice a year. 

It's the plate discipline for me. His entire M.O. is to make contact no matter the cost and gets himself out more than anybody. 

[Derwood]

Nico has the worst wRC+ on the team. He and Dansby are the only two below 100

[Stratos]

18 minutes ago, Derwood said:

Nico has the worst wRC+ on the team. He and Dansby are the only two below 100

Bat him 6th i say.

He really needs to fix his swing decisions.  And Dansby just needs to stop pulling off the ball. Watching him hit us torture. 2 very easy fixes a blind man could see.

[squally1313]

1 hour ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

It's the plate discipline for me. His entire M.O. is to make contact no matter the cost and gets himself out more than anybody. 

But again, that’s just Nico. K% went from 7 to 8 but his walk rate went up half a point. There’s nothing wrong with his K/BB profile, and his batted ball quality is the same. he’s a career .300 BABIP guy running a .276 for this year. Add 20 points to his batting average and he’s the same, very valuable player he’s been the last few years. 

[Jason Ross]

Nico Hoerner 2025:
6.0 BB%, 7.6 K%, .097 ISO, .313 BABIP, .292 xBA, .297 BA, .324 wOBA. .322 xwOBA
 

Nico Hoerner 2026
6.4% BB%, 8.5 K%, .090 ISO, .276 BABIP, .298 xBA, .264 BA, .299 wOBA, .322 xwOBA

[Derwood]

1 hour ago, Jason Ross said:

Nico Hoerner 2025:
6.0 BB%, 7.6 K%, .097 ISO, .313 BABIP, .292 xBA, .297 BA, .324 wOBA. .322 xwOBA
 

Nico Hoerner 2026
6.4% BB%, 8.5 K%, .090 ISO, .276 BABIP, .298 xBA, .264 BA, .299 wOBA, .322 xwOBA

First 30 or 40 games of 2026 doing a lot of heavy lifting here

[Jason Ross]

44 minutes ago, Derwood said:

First 30 or 40 games of 2026 doing a lot of heavy lifting here

Everyone has good runs and bad runs. But xBA and xwOBA don't get that thrown off by 20% of the season, either. Those numbers are trying to tell us something. Same with his BB% and K%. 

If those first bit was doing so much lifting, his wRC+ would be the same as would his wOBA. They're not. So the answer is the xData is trying to say "hey man, he's probably fine"