Random trade speculation

[Bertz]

Should be noted that Alcantara throws 6.5 innings per start and averages more than 27 batters faced.  That should *heavily* color how you view his rate stats

He's good.  I like Detmers more but it's close enough that I'd want to know what each guy cost before making a decision.

[squally1313]

At the risk of being overly simplistic, baseball played in the playoffs in October has the exact same rules and regulations as baseball played in the regular season and a lot of conversations/viewpoints around here seem to think it's some totally different game and I don't understand why. It would be great if, in addition to everything else Alcantara brings to the table, he also had a double digit K rate. If that were the case we would need to pay way more for him. But getting a guy with historically very good GB rates and putting him in front of this defense is a very good way to lean into the strength of this team. 

[mul21]

15 minutes ago, Tangled Up in Plaid said:

Agreed. Detmers is good, but I feel like he's being overrated at this point due to lack of other options.

I think you have to account for the fact that the Angels are bad at pretty much everything and there's some expectation that the Cubs pitching coaches/development team can squeeze some more out of him, especially when you factor in the additional years of control.

[Jason Ross]

Per the Athletic. 

[Rcal10]

16 minutes ago, Tangled Up in Plaid said:

Agreed. Detmers is good, but I feel like he's being overrated at this point due to lack of other options.

I don’t see him, personally, as overrated. Maybe years of control is being overrated. I see him as a solid MOR or slightly higher, pitcher. Could be even better during his control years. But, what I also like about him is he is a lefty. Assuming the Cubs face the Phillies in the first round I would love to go with Boyd, Imanaga and Detmers. Phillies are pretty bad against left handed pitching.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

1 minute ago, mul21 said:

I think you have to account for the fact that the Angels are bad at pretty much everything and there's some expectation that the Cubs pitching coaches/development team can squeeze some more out of him, especially when you factor in the additional years of control.

I know "Angels Bad" is a popular sentiment around the league, but is there actually any evidence of players leaving their org and flourishing elsewhere?

[mul21]

1 minute ago, Tangled Up in Plaid said:

I know "Angels Bad" is a popular sentiment around the league, but is there actually any evidence of players leaving their org and flourishing elsewhere?

I think the lack of good players being picked may create a chicken/egg situation with this argument.  I'm not saying you're wrong, but I think it's probably a tough thing to prove either way.

[Jason Ross]

6 minutes ago, Tangled Up in Plaid said:

I know "Angels Bad" is a popular sentiment around the league, but is there actually any evidence of players leaving their org and flourishing elsewhere?

Brandon Marsh is one. Taylor Ward you can argue about; his wRC+ is about the same but his approach is wasy better. Rasiel Iglasies got good again in Atlanta. 

But I think generally, I don't think the Angels are "bad" in that they don't have good players. It's that they never surround their good players with good players (because I think they sold their soul for anyone who can help Mike Trout or Shohehi Ohtani right now). They are a poorly run organization, but one who has good players intermittently. 

For me, on Detmers, he looks good now. I'd be fine with that guy, who he is, today. If we can squeeze a little extra out of him? That's cool, too.

[Rcal10]

What would the cost difference be between Detmers and Alcantara? What does one extra year of control and a lower salary cost in the way of prospects? I would imagine Detmers cost more, but how much more? 

[Bertz]

11 minutes ago, Tangled Up in Plaid said:

I know "Angels Bad" is a popular sentiment around the league, but is there actually any evidence of players leaving their org and flourishing elsewhere?

Arte Moreno doesn't allow the team to invest in all the pitch lab infrastructure we take for granted.  I think to your point there isn't some long list of guys leaving and thriving (Griffin Canning is probably the biggest example and he's hardly egregious).  But as mul mentioned they're generally pretty bad at successfully bringing guys in, which would presumably lean on a pretty similar set of muscles.

[Outshined_One]

1 minute ago, Bertz said:

Arte Moreno doesn't allow the team to invest in all the pitch lab infrastructure we take for granted.  I think to your point there isn't some long list of guys leaving and thriving (Griffin Canning is probably the biggest example and he's hardly egregious).  But as mul mentioned they're generally pretty bad at successfully bringing guys in, which would presumably lean on a pretty similar set of muscles.

Part of the problem also is they tend not to follow national trends in the draft or with international signings, so it's not like they're regularly pulling in high profile/high ceiling guys who stumble their way to the majors, only to immensely benefit from better infrastructure elsewhere, such as we saw with Baltimore pitchers in the 2010s.

Instead, it's more like the Angels pull in good-but-not great guys who see marginal improvement when they sign elsewhere because their ceiling is relatively limited.

[Dfan25]

37 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

At the risk of being overly simplistic, baseball played in the playoffs in October has the exact same rules and regulations as baseball played in the regular season and a lot of conversations/viewpoints around here seem to think it's some totally different game and I don't understand why. It would be great if, in addition to everything else Alcantara brings to the table, he also had a double digit K rate. If that were the case we would need to pay way more for him. But getting a guy with historically very good GB rates and putting him in front of this defense is a very good way to lean into the strength of this team. 

I get what you are saying , but to me the difference in samples in the playoffs makes keeping the ball out of play that much more important . We are talking 3 / / 5 and 7 game series . Not a lot of margin due error.

 

I know the Cubs defense is elite , but even they make mistakes and when the ball is put a lot in play bad stuff can happen , it’s just the way it is .
 

Alcantara is not bad . His fíp and xFIP are just a touch over 4.  His xera is 3.75 however . He is okay , but I feel he is a bit overrated in general . I take him but not really sure what I would give up 

 

With that said , after looking closer at Detmers o am not sure I give up Rojas for him . There seems to be some sort of risk with every pitcher except Skubal 

Edited 13 hours ago by Dfan25

[PeanutPunch33]

Alcantara should have been the guy in the off-season over Cabrera.  I wish I knew how close the Cubs were to paying a little extra for that move.  Alcantara is a stud.  Guy is one of the few left that can easily pitch 200 innings in a season and give you a chance every time out.  I've been a fan of him for years.

But now, that move just feels weird and it turns the Cubs into the Chicago Marlins.  

[chibears55]

I think given where theyre at with the luxury tax, and Hoyer might not want to give up too much or any of his top prospects, they may look more into acquiring these guys.

Detmers, Hancock, Mize, Soriano, King

Rental options 

Peralta, Ray, Gausman

Also, they might look into adding a reliever and possibly a bat, so Hoyer just may be conservative with his prospects and also looking to stay under that 2nd tier with his additions.

 

Edited 12 hours ago by chibears55

[Rcal10]

18 minutes ago, PeanutPunch33 said:

Alcantara should have been the guy in the off-season over Cabrera.  I wish I knew how close the Cubs were to paying a little extra for that move.  Alcantara is a stud.  Guy is one of the few left that can easily pitch 200 innings in a season and give you a chance every time out.  I've been a fan of him for years.

But now, that move just feels weird and it turns the Cubs into the Chicago Marlins.  

Did Alcantara cost more than Cabrera? I’m not sure about that. Cabrera came with an extra  year and actually had a better year than Alcantara last year. Easy to say you wanted him last year over Cabrera, but I am not sure that was the consensus at the time. Right now Cabrera doesn’t look like a good move. That could change. And it did look good when they did it. 

[squally1313]

Why are we now drawing a line in the sand on the next threshold of the luxury tax? It's like, at most, an extra $3m-$4m in tax payments? We have a ton of money coming off the books after this season and we'll almost assuredly drop down and reset the clock, so there's not really a repeater penalty situation. 

[Rcal10]

17 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

I think given where theyre at with the luxury tax, and Hoyer might not want to give up too much or any of his top prospects, they may look more into acquiring these guys.

Detmers, Hancock, Mize, Soriano, King

Rental options 

Peralta, Ray, Gausman

 

There is a HUGE difference in cost between Detmers, Hancock and Soriano compared to Mize and King. And for any of those 3 guys it would cost a lot of prospect capital. Acquiring Detmers, Soriano or Hancock wouldn’t well into the Cubs prospects. Guys like Mize, King, Ray and Gausman would be cheaper because they are rentals. So would Peralta. I have no idea what Skubal costs. On one hand he is the best pitcher out there. But he is a rental. I don’t want the Cubs in on him. Too expensive in prospect cost for 3 months of pitching. 

[Banedon]

I'm not even sure who I'd be excited about picking up.

[Rcal10]

17 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Why are we now drawing a line in the sand on the next threshold of the luxury tax? It's like, at most, an extra $3m-$4m in tax payments? We have a ton of money coming off the books after this season and we'll almost assuredly drop down and reset the clock, so there's not really a repeater penalty situation. 

I thought there were other penalties, but I’m not sure what? Lesser draft pick awarded if you make a QO to your FA? Higher loss of draft pick if you sign one?????? 🤷

[Bertz]

24 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Why are we now drawing a line in the sand on the next threshold of the luxury tax? It's like, at most, an extra $3m-$4m in tax payments? We have a ton of money coming off the books after this season and we'll almost assuredly drop down and reset the clock, so there's not really a repeater penalty situation. 

Also even if it is a hard line $14M over 1/3rd of a season is a lot of money because it translates into $42M in full season salary.  It's not some impossible Brewster's Millions type of target to hit but if youre not adding Skubal you're probably not getting there

[Post Count Padder]

Detmers seems so obvious that I wonder if the Angels are just slow playing it to get as much as they can and aren't pulling the trigger yet. 

I don't love the idea of trading Wiggins for 2 reasons: I still believe in his ability and he's at his lowest value right now being hurt and ineffective. 

[squally1313]

10 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Also even if it is a hard line $14M over 1/3rd of a season is a lot of money because it translates into $42M in full season salary.  It's not some impossible Brewster's Millions type of target to hit but if youre not adding Skubal you're probably not getting there

Yeah it maybe comes into play if they got creative and tried to take on bad contracts (Trout, King, Javy) to lessen the cost but even then, they were under the luxury tax last year and likely will be under next year so minimal risk of repeater penalties. You don't risk getting penalized in the draft unless you go $40m over, which is basically a mathematical impossibility at this point in the year. 

[KCCub]

2 minutes ago, Post Count Padder said:

Detmers seems so obvious that I wonder if the Angels are just slow playing it to get as much as they can and aren't pulling the trigger yet. 

As they should be. They are also shopping Neto and the Red Sox are looking for a SS. Franklin Arias (SS Top 10 overall prospect) seems to be the center piece that would go back. One would think that would impact what they ask from us if it happens. e.g. asking for Rojas would be redundant. A lot of pieces to the puzzle and they can wait to see which teams budge. 

[Post Count Padder]

8 minutes ago, KCCub said:

As they should be. They are also shopping Neto and the Red Sox are looking for a SS. Franklin Arias (SS Top 10 overall prospect) seems to be the center piece that would go back. One would think that would impact what they ask from us if it happens. e.g. asking for Rojas would be redundant. A lot of pieces to the puzzle and they can wait to see which teams budge. 

Yup, agreed. We can offer them a relatively MLB ready catcher in Ayers but I'm sure they don't make any big deals for a few more days unless they're blown away by an offer. 

Between Detmers, Soriano, Adell and Neto, they should boost their system quite a bit. 

[squally1313]

10 minutes ago, KCCub said:

As they should be. They are also shopping Neto and the Red Sox are looking for a SS. Franklin Arias (SS Top 10 overall prospect) seems to be the center piece that would go back. One would think that would impact what they ask from us if it happens. e.g. asking for Rojas would be redundant. A lot of pieces to the puzzle and they can wait to see which teams budge. 

Wait, are you saying that the asking price for a 3 fWAR SS with 3 years of control, with a +30% K rate and a .307 xwOBA, is the #2 prospect in all of baseball (plus more)?