Random trade speculation

[Rcal10]

58 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Per the Athletic:

 

Wouldn’t the Mariners talk about Hancock be an easier discussion if Shaw was healthy? I had suggested once before that Shaw being out MIGHT make some talks trickier. Wouldn’t this be an example. If the Mariners wanted Shaw they would want to know he can help this year. If they wanted Seiya,(which I hope the Cubs  wouldn’t give up) wouldn’t it be easier to trade him if the Cubs knew Shaw was good to go? I can also see the Guardians wanting to discuss a young pitcher for Shaw. That would be another example. Maybe even the Red Sox. 

[Rcal10]

47 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

Speaking of Seiya, guy is raking again this year. He's been between 123 and 137 wRC+ the last 4 years. I wasn't big on reupping him to start the year, but I think I'd like him back if he'd take a 2 or 3 year deal. 

I would gladly take him back on a 3 year $75M deal. Something like that. Have to hope he only wants to play a few more and then go back to Japan. I would love to have him back. 

[Post Count Padder]

Seeing the above comment about giving Seiya 3 more years made me remember the guy who wanted to give Ryan Sweeney a 3 year extension based on a few good games. We all had a good laugh.

[Bertz]

 

Not Cubs related but further evidence the Angels are willing to play ball

[squally1313]

14 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Wouldn’t the Mariners talk about Hancock be an easier discussion if Shaw was healthy? I had suggested once before that Shaw being out MIGHT make some talks trickier. Wouldn’t this be an example. If the Mariners wanted Shaw they would want to know he can help this year. If they wanted Seiya,(which I hope the Cubs  wouldn’t give up) wouldn’t it be easier to trade him if the Cubs knew Shaw was good to go? I can also see the Guardians wanting to discuss a young pitcher for Shaw. That would be another example. Maybe even the Red Sox. 

How close are we to saying Shaw and Ramirez are pretty close to equal in value at present? They seem pretty interchangeable to me in terms of their value to the Cubs in the short and long term.

Going to try and work out my confusion with the Mariners on the fly here. 23rd in total offensive fWAR, 27th in wOBA, 14th in xwOBA, 16th in wRC. Worst in baseball defensively (maybe will come back to this). But their lineup looks like this, which doesn't really seem bad or super fixable to me? :

1. JP Crawford (107 wRC), 3B. Expiring deal, above average hitter against LHP and RHP
2. Julio Rodriguez (114 wRC) - obviously not going anywhere
3. Dominic Canzone (137 wRC) - DH, but that's plenty productive and seems sustainable
4. Arozarena (141 wRC) - Maybe a little inflated but still very good (.352 xwOBA)
5. Josh Naylor (99 wRC) - Bad for a first baseman but we don't have anything to help there and just signed a huge deal
6. Raleigh (69 wRC) - Very bad, but it's Cal Raleigh. Don't think they're going to want Ballesteros or whatever
7. Cole Young (103 wRC) - Seems fine for a second baseman
8. Luke Raley (109 wRC) - Passable for a RF, underperforming his xwOBA by 30 points
9. Colt Emerson (75 wRC) - Very bad, metrics are worse, was a top 15 prospect going into this year and signed a $95m deal already

I guess in this scenario, you trade for Shaw or Ramirez, slide Crawford back to short, tell Emerson to try again next year? But really, their offense is bad because their stud catcher is OPSing .573, and there's not really a trade fix for that one. 

[KCCub]

Bieber with back to back good starts against playoff teams. 

[Bertz]

9 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

How close are we to saying Shaw and Ramirez are pretty close to equal in value at present? They seem pretty interchangeable to me in terms of their value to the Cubs in the short and long term.

Going to try and work out my confusion with the Mariners on the fly here. 23rd in total offensive fWAR, 27th in wOBA, 14th in xwOBA, 16th in wRC. Worst in baseball defensively (maybe will come back to this). But their lineup looks like this, which doesn't really seem bad or super fixable to me? :

1. JP Crawford (107 wRC), 3B. Expiring deal, above average hitter against LHP and RHP
2. Julio Rodriguez (114 wRC) - obviously not going anywhere
3. Dominic Canzone (137 wRC) - DH, but that's plenty productive and seems sustainable
4. Arozarena (141 wRC) - Maybe a little inflated but still very good (.352 xwOBA)
5. Josh Naylor (99 wRC) - Bad for a first baseman but we don't have anything to help there and just signed a huge deal
6. Raleigh (69 wRC) - Very bad, but it's Cal Raleigh. Don't think they're going to want Ballesteros or whatever
7. Cole Young (103 wRC) - Seems fine for a second baseman
8. Luke Raley (109 wRC) - Passable for a RF, underperforming his xwOBA by 30 points
9. Colt Emerson (75 wRC) - Very bad, metrics are worse, was a top 15 prospect going into this year and signed a $95m deal already

I guess in this scenario, you trade for Shaw or Ramirez, slide Crawford back to short, tell Emerson to try again next year? But really, their offense is bad because their stud catcher is OPSing .573, and there's not really a trade fix for that one. 

They really need help against LHP (87 wRC+ as a team).  Raley and Young have good overall numbers but huge platoon splits, and yeah Emerson's just generally not ready.  And for whatever questions there are still about Shaw's bat I think he's looking like at minimum a lefty masher.

I'd think the M's would want to go as far as getting Shaw AND another trade for a guy like Lane Thomas.  

[Jason Ross]

1 hour ago, Bertz said:

LFG!

With Rosenthal mentioning names that specific it's not an accident.

Hancock has not been on my radar but him for Shaw feels like it'd be pretty close to an even split.  And it's pretty out there that the M's are looking to trade an arm for a bat with all six guys healthy and Anderson coming up fast

The Angels looking at catching is great too.  Moving one of Mo or Ayers is one of the more logical ways to get where we wanna go.

There's also an aspect of "found money" with Ayers, as well. Four months ago if you said the Cubs could potentially acquire a guy with a top-15 xFIP on the season, and control for Owen Ayers, people would have thought you were crazy. That's kind of missing context, but general idea-wise...pretty wild.

We shouldn't devalue him, but it's kind of a crazy journey from 19th round pick to where we are.

[Bertz]

25 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

There's also an aspect of "found money" with Ayers, as well. Four months ago if you said the Cubs could potentially acquire a guy with a top-15 xFIP on the season, and control for Owen Ayers, people would have thought you were crazy. That's kind of missing context, but general idea-wise...pretty wild.

We shouldn't devalue him, but it's kind of a crazy journey from 19th round pick to where we are.

I am super curious how he's valued.  If he was 23 instead of 25 he's a top 10 prospect in the sport.  With his age he is and should be discounted, but how far we talking?  Fringe top 100 guy?  10th in an average farm system?  Less?  More?

I feel like I have a pretty decent read on what a Mo-led deal for Detmers or Soriano looks like: Mo, a nice second piece like Alcantara or Kepley, and a 3rd piece that's boom/bust and further away from the majors (think like Mule or Lovich).  But Ayers?  I'm not even positive if he'd be the first or second guy in the deal.

[Jason Ross]

Was thinking a bit on Hancock and while I know the general consensus is "I wonder what the real ceiling is here" I can see Tyler Zombro getting excited. He's a low-slot, high fastball type who has a lot of horizontal movers. He fits the mold of pitchers that he's tended to like. 

[Dfan25]

27 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Was thinking a bit on Hancock and while I know the general consensus is "I wonder what the real ceiling is here" I can see Tyler Zombro getting excited. He's a low-slot, high fastball type who has a lot of horizontal movers. He fits the mold of pitchers that he's tended to like. 

I understand what you are saying but I think they should be careful here . It’s nice that they trust Zombro , but I would like to get a pitcher for what he currently is , and not for what Zombro thinks he can be .

 

Mariners are really good at developing arms and it seems the only one they are willing to deal is Hancock . That would concern me some .  Again this is nothing against you or what you are saying , just a thought . 

Edited Thursday at 11:53 PM by Dfan25

[NorthsideAvenger]

7 minutes ago, Dfan25 said:

I understand what you are saying but I think they should be careful here . It’s nice that they trust Zombro , but I would like to get a pitcher for what he currently is , and not for what Zombro thinks he can be .

The problem is, those kind of pitchers are going to be so expensive that Jed will never enter the bidding. 

[Jason Ross]

31 minutes ago, Dfan25 said:

I understand what you are saying but I think they should be careful here . It’s nice that they trust Zombro , but I would like to get a pitcher for what he currently is , and not for what Zombro thinks he can be .

 

Mariners are really good at developing arms and it seems the only one they are willing to deal is Hancock . That would concern me some .  Again this is nothing against you or what you are saying , just a thought . 

Here's the thing: if you sit around and wait for the perfect pitcher, you'll be waiting forever. How often do you find a combination of a team looking to trade controlled starting pitching that doesn't have some question mark attached to it? It's going to be something; they'll have had an injury, or they'll have to be worked on to get their best out of them or they'll be a rental. We can find a flaw in anyone. 

And let's be fair to Hancock: he's rocking a 3.83 xFIP, a 3.72 FIP, a 23.4 K%, a career high in velocity and was a 6th overall pick out of college. He's not bad as is. If you think you can get that strikeout rate above 25%? He's probably pretty damn good.

I'm not saying to spend like you hope him to be, but at some point the Cubs are going to have to pick a bit of their poison when it comes to acquiring a starting pitcher, and I could see the poison being "we trust the guy we promoted as head of pitching to get the best out of him". 

I'm not even sure Zombro likes Hancock, only that I can see the team finding aspects of him they do like. 

In the end, I'd probably shoot higher than Hancock myself. From afar, I think Detmers is who I'd rather have. But he's got a bit of that aspect too; the poison there is that he's just not done it very long at this level we're seeing from him this year. 

[Jason Ross]

31 minutes ago, NorthsideAvenger said:

The problem is, those kind of pitchers are going to be so expensive that Jed will never enter the bidding. 

To be fair to Hoyer he has won bidding before. He got the Parades deal over the line, he got the Tucker deal over the line and he's gotten the Cabrera deal over the line. Many people here were upset about losing Tucker in free agency and how Hoyer traded Cam Smith for one year of him. The Cubs weren't the only teams interested in those players and he got them all. He did wait for the offseason to get Cabrera, to be fair, but he still didn't get him for free or anything. 

He won't win every war, and he certainly has limits, but I do think the narrative of "Hoyer won't make a big trade" like this kind of falls flat. I'd have a pretty decent confidence in him getting a Hancock or a Detmers at some point between 2027 Opening Day. I do wonder if he has the ability to really throw the prospect capital at a killer, Preller-level deal, though.

[mk49]

I like the Hancock idea.  But, not for Seiya.  I don't mind giving up Shaw, though.

[Rcal10]

5 minutes ago, mk49 said:

I like the Hancock idea.  But, not for Seiya.  I don't mind giving up Shaw, though.

My thoughts exactly. Then do Ayers + for Detmers. That would be amazing. Then get a pen arm.  As others have said, Ayers is sound money. 

[mk49]

22 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

My thoughts exactly. Then do Ayers + for Detmers. That would be amazing. Then get a pen arm.  As others have said, Ayers is sound money. 

I think I would trade Mo, instead of Ayers, if they want a young catcher.  I'll miss him, but you have to give up someone.

Edited yesterday at 12:53 AM by mk49

[mk49]

3 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

I would gladly take him back on a 3 year $75M deal. Something like that. Have to hope he only wants to play a few more and then go back to Japan. I would love to have him back. 

I would be happy to bring Seiya back, too, if it's 3yr/$75M.  Seems like Seiya wants to stay, but I have a feeling somebody will offer him a 4 ~5yr deal.  

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

4 minutes ago, mk49 said:

I would be happy to bring Seiya back, too, if it's 3yr/$75M.  Seems like Seiya wants to stay, but I have a feeling somebody will offer him a 4 ~5yr deal.  

That's my worry. Seiya for 3 years is great, after that is really dicey.

[We Got The Whole 9]

The Cubs are not trading a 130 hitter right now, what are we even talking about?

[mk49]

Just now, We Got The Whole 9 said:

The Cubs are not trading a 130 hitter right now, what are we even talking about?

I don't take it seriously, but some people (not on this forum) keep talking about trading Seiya for a pitcher.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

If the Yankees wanna give us Cam Schilttler for Seiya they can have him.

[mk49]

2 minutes ago, Tangled Up in Plaid said:

If the Yankees wanna give us Cam Schilttler for Seiya they can have him.

That's not gonna happen.😁

[Rcal10]

7 minutes ago, mk49 said:

I don't take it seriously, but some people (not on this forum) keep talking about trading Seiya for a pitcher.

Who has suggested trading Seiya. I think everyone has said for Shaw that is fine. But not for Seiya. 

[mk49]

8 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Who has suggested trading Seiya. I think everyone has said for Shaw that is fine. But not for Seiya. 

There are plenty of articles about trading Seiya.  Just Google it.  IMO, there's no way the Cubs are going to trade him.

OK, I found a few for you.

https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/report-cubs-could-trade-mlb-233122779.html

https://www.si.com/mlb/cardinals/onsi/cardinals-rumors-st-louis-surprisingly-linked-to-cubs-seiya-suzuki-pat3

https://www.chicitysports.com/chicago-cubs-seiya-suzuki-trade-deadline-castillo-mariners-yankees-phillies/

Edited yesterday at 01:06 AM by mk49