Spring Training games thread

[Radar3454]

22 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

But what would be the point of resting Busch so that Mo can play 1st? Both are left handed hitters and Busch is clearly a better fielder. I get the idea of Mo at 1st if Busch gets injured, that strictly as a guy to give Busch a day off, I don’t see Mo. 

I think Mo would be fine as a short term injury or rest day replacement or for Busch. I don't see him as the everyday 1B or 1st C, but he can help out at either position for short term injuries or rest days. 

[Bertz]

39 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Miguel Amaya is taking reps at 1b per Bruce Levine. He's played 1b in the minors before. 

Makes sense.  I think Mo was the natural assumption for giving short term 1B coverage but Amaya's also a guy we'd love to get in the lineup more.  And unlike Mo you're not going to be as wistful about taking some of his defensive focus away from behind the plate.

Barring a Busch injury you're probably talking about 2-3 games a month that need to be covered, we don't need to let perfect be the enemy of good enough.

[Rcal10]

37 minutes ago, Radar3454 said:

I think Mo would be fine as a short term injury or rest day replacement or for Busch. I don't see him as the everyday 1B or 1st C, but he can help out at either position for short term injuries or rest days. 

I don’t see the Cubs resting Busch on a day that a right handed pitcher is pitching. So don’t see how Mo fills in there. I do see Amaya is playing g a little 1st. That works.

[Bull]

1 hour ago, Jason Ross said:

Miguel Amaya is taking reps at 1b per Bruce Levine. He's played 1b in the minors before. 

This is huge. Amaya risked being the odd man out with Shaw eating up at bats. Amaya is too good to just be a backup catcher. (hopefully)

One more way to get the strong part of our bench (Amaya and Shaw) ABs and our everyday players a day off every now and then. 

It also helps stack the lineup with righties against tough lefties without using your back-up catcher as your only RH bat off the bench that you're afraid to use because you'll be left without an emergency catcher. Mo and Busch on the bench against a lefty. Yes please.

 

 

 

Edited February 26 by Bull

[mk49]

I didn't think Amaya as the backup 1B.  It does make sense, and should be better than Mo.  Hopefully, Long, another option, will be back soon.  The injury didn't look that serious.

Edited February 26 by mk49

[Rex Buckingham]

19 minutes ago, Bull said:

Amaya is too good to just be a backup catcher. (hopefully)

I think of him and Kelly as more of a 1A, 1B split if they remain healthy and productive (which splitting games should hopefully help with). Like, unless one of them gets really hot maybe they each catch 75 games or so, get another 25 starts at 1B or DH and then get used to PH knowing we have a theoretical 3rd catcher available, especially since they would probably like to make those 1B or DH starts against lefties with Mo and/or Busch on the bench.

[CubinNY]

10 minutes ago, Rex Buckingham said:

I think of him and Kelly as more of a 1A, 1B split if they remain healthy and productive (which splitting games should hopefully help with). Like, unless one of them gets really hot maybe they each catch 75 games or so, get another 25 starts at 1B or DH and then get used to PH knowing we have a theoretical 3rd catcher available, especially since they would probably like to make those 1B or DH starts against lefties with Mo and/or Busch on the bench.

Unless he's unlocked something we don't know about, I expect Kelly to regress pretty significantly this year. 

[Jason Ross]

20 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

Unless he's unlocked something we don't know about, I expect Kelly to regress pretty significantly this year. 

I don't see it, at least nothing dramatic I know that his April was crazy good and that people have decided that it was the catalyst for what Kelly was last year, but I think that's a short sighted way of looking at this.

He had much improved launch angle and hard hit%, and his mechanics were very different in 2025 than we have seen previously. He didn't significantly outperform his xdata, posting a season long .332 wOBA compared to a .321 xwOBA. He also showed very good approach, his chase, whiff and swing decisions were all excellent. Another important thing; his pull% was up, almost 5% from the year prior but also 8-10% the prior two years to that. His BABIP was basically on par with his last few years, so there wasn't some lucky run of hits, and his BA (.249) and his xBA (.236) are within the ballpark of normal variance. Hitters who pull the ball more often are more likely to outpace xBA and xwOBA as well as xData does not take into account directional hitting and pulled balls have better numbers.

I'm expecting a bit of a regression but something more along the lines of a reduction from a 115 wRC+ to a 105-110 wRC+ assuming normal batted ball variance and health. His increase in ISO can be easily traced to more pull and a more lift, and with the approach he has at the plate, as long as those things keep (the mechanical and approach changes) he shouldn't fall far off from where he was last year. 

As an example, Mike Yazemtrski, Carlos Correa, Gavin Lux, Addison Barger all had wOBA of .321 or .322 and finished between a 102 wRC+ and 107 wRC+. Alex Bohm had a .322 and finished with a 113 wRC+. So I think this is a good place to expect Kelly to land. We can debate semantics on what "significant" means, but for me, that would probably fall well short of that.  

[Rcal10]

Not that it makes that much difference, but isn’t Amaya a reverse splits guy? 

[Radar3454]

23 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

I don't see it, at least nothing dramatic I know that his April was crazy good and that people have decided that it was the catalyst for what Kelly was last year, but I think that's a short sighted way of looking at this.

He had much improved launch angle and hard hit%, and his mechanics were very different in 2025 than we have seen previously. He didn't significantly outperform his xdata, posting a season long .332 wOBA compared to a .321 xwOBA. He also showed very good approach, his chase, whiff and swing decisions were all excellent. Another important thing; his pull% was up, almost 5% from the year prior but also 8-10% the prior two years to that. His BABIP was basically on par with his last few years, so there wasn't some lucky run of hits, and his BA (.249) and his xBA (.236) are within the ballpark of normal variance. Hitters who pull the ball more often are more likely to outpace xBA and xwOBA as well as xData does not take into account directional hitting and pulled balls have better numbers.

I'm expecting a bit of a regression but something more along the lines of a reduction from a 115 wRC+ to a 105-110 wRC+ assuming normal batted ball variance and health. His increase in ISO can be easily traced to more pull and a more lift, and with the approach he has at the plate, as long as those things keep (the mechanical and approach changes) he shouldn't fall far off from where he was last year. 

As an example, Mike Yazemtrski, Carlos Correa, Gavin Lux, Addison Barger all had wOBA of .321 or .322 and finished between a 102 wRC+ and 107 wRC+. Alex Bohm had a .322 and finished with a 113 wRC+. So I think this is a good place to expect Kelly to land. We can debate semantics on what "significant" means, but for me, that would probably fall well short of that.  

Any minor league info of Mo versus rhp vs lhp?

[Layoutman]

44 minutes ago, mk49 said:

I didn't think Amaya as the backup 1B.  It does make sense, and should be better than Mo.  Hopefully, Long, another option, will be back soon.  The injury didn't look that serious.

Depending on Amaya to back up any position up is risky. With his injury history, however flukey, he just seems snakebit with injuries. 

I'm a big Long fan from watching him here in Des Moines. He is a quality human being who can flat out hit with authority.  Besides the elbow injury he is currently not on the 40 man roster. With all of the non-roster guys in camp his roster status may dictate that he starts the year at Iowa.

No matter who backs up Busch, Mo (5' 8"), Amaya (6' 1") or Long (5' 11"). The defense is going to be sub-par.

[mk49]

Counsell said Long is not going to play in WBC.

[Jason Ross]

13 minutes ago, Radar3454 said:

Any minor league info of Mo versus rhp vs lhp?

His Triple-A numbers were very split-heavy and in the direction you'd expect. 

[Radar3454]

15 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

His Triple-A numbers were very split-heavy and in the direction you'd expect. 

Thanks - I thought he might be less susceptible with his swing and he seemed to hang in pretty well on his super small sample size in the majors last year.

[Bertz]

Carson Kelly's underlying numbers at the full season level backed up what he did last year (again at the full season level).  He's a 30+ year old catcher coming off a career year, so do definitely guard for disappointment.  But as long as your expectations aren't the Aaron Judge impression he showed off last April I wouldn't worry too much about him.

[Bull]

1 hour ago, Layoutman said:

Depending on Amaya to back up any position up is risky. With his injury history, however flukey, he just seems snakebit with injuries. 

I'm a big Long fan from watching him here in Des Moines. He is a quality human being who can flat out hit with authority.  Besides the elbow injury he is currently not on the 40 man roster. With all of the non-roster guys in camp his roster status may dictate that he starts the year at Iowa.

No matter who backs up Busch, Mo (5' 8"), Amaya (6' 1") or Long (5' 11"). The defense is going to be sub-par.

I don't see it that way. 

If he's injured you call up Long for two weeks, while Mo backs up catcher a couple times (asking extra heavy workload from Kelly). Then you send Long back down to get regular at bats and let Mo catch a little more for a couple week. Hopefully this buys you enough time to pick up someone off the scrapheap as defense heavy backup.

I'm also hopeful that Amaya is athletic enough to be a more than adequate short side platoon first baseman. 

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

Wiggins got in, gave up a couple doubles to Neto and Trout biut he's 97-98 consistently.

[Bertz]

Last year in 132 innings Connor Noland threw seventeen pitches 92 MPH or harder, and one pitch north of 93.

This spring in 15 batters faced Connor has thrown eleven pitches 92 MPH or harder, four above 93

[Bertz]

Chas McCormick's double today was hit harder than any ball he's ever hit in a regular season MLB game.  More than 4 full MPH than any ball last year.  Feels notable for a guy with a lot of health issues the past few years.

[Layoutman]

1 hour ago, Bertz said:

Chas McCormick's double today was hit harder than any ball he's ever hit in a regular season MLB game.  More than 4 full MPH than any ball last year.  Feels notable for a guy with a lot of health issues the past few years.

Does he have a + glove?

[Rcal10]

Just now, Layoutman said:

Does he have a + glove?

I believe he does. 

[mk49]

Cabrera is going to pitch tomorrow.  I'm really looking forward to it.

Wiggins was a bit of disappointment.  Yeah, I know it was just a spring training game, but I expected a better result.  So far, Ben Brown, Assad and Shota exceeded by expectations.  Boyd was good today.  Horton was great, too.

[Stratos]

1 hour ago, mk49 said:

Cabrera is going to pitch tomorrow.  I'm really looking forward to it.

Wiggins was a bit of disappointment.  Yeah, I know it was just a spring training game, but I expected a better result.  So far, Ben Brown, Assad and Shota exceeded by expectations.  Boyd was good today.  Horton was great, too.

Have been more interested in the velos than results.  So far everyone's velo looks as good or better as last year.  Good sign.

Wiggins sat 97-98 today which is impressive.  Probably some adrenaline there though.  Didn't walk anyone either.

[Geographyhater8888]

17 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

Not that it makes that much difference, but isn’t Amaya a reverse splits guy? 

Very much. 1st base is a black hole vs left handers. . 

[Geographyhater8888]

What kind of platoon splits are we hoping for from Busch? 100 wRC+ gs lefties is best case scenario? 

Edited February 27 by Geographyhater8888