What Does Cubs' Signing of Alex Bregman Mean for Matt Shaw?

[RandallPnkFloyd]

Image courtesy of © Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images

The Chicago Cubs' signing of Alex Bregman represented a significant deviation from the norm, on a couple different levels. Given the team's unwillingness to dabble in the deep end of free agent waters in recent years, it was surprising in the simplest way: they made the splash this time. They also made some unusual concessions. Not only did they hand out the largest average annual value in the franchise's history (even after accounting for deferrals), but they agreed to deferrals to structure the deal the way Bregman and agent Scott Boras preferred it. As it relates to the 2026 club, though, the most eye-opening change of direction might be the way it alters the future of third base—and the future of the team's incumbent at that spot.

When the Cubs were attached to Bregman in the winter of 2024-25, part of the thinking was that signing him would give top prospect Matt Shaw a safety net. Perhaps he would eventually come up in response to an injury or supplement the lineup in a utility capacity, but Chicago wouldn't have to force him into the lineup if either phase of the game wasn't quite ready for the top level. After Bregman signed with Boston instead, Shaw assumed starting duties at the hot corner. The results were uneven. 

Shaw checked in with a .226/.295/.394 line at the end of 2025, wrapping up the year with a wRC+ of 93 and a fWAR of 1.5. His second half was better than his first; he posted a 130 wRC+ against a mark of 60 in the first half. The power also manifested more frequently, with a .258 ISO in the second half coming after a paltry .082 figure in the first. Even within that, though, there was cause for concern.

After recording a 127 wRC+ and .307 ISO in August, Shaw's September figures were 95 and .153 in the two metrics, respectively. His 27.7% September strikeout rate was his highest in an individual month, and he notched only two hits in 23 postseason plate appearances. The flashes, in conjunction with the team's aforementioned hesitation of big contracts, left at least a feeling that it'd once again be Shaw's job to lose. 

Instead, the youngster's future is now very much in question. The wide assumption is that he'll remain on the major-league roster, but in more of a utility capacity. Defensively, Shaw was quite good for the better part of last year. Even if the metrics may not have loved him over a full season, the eye test revealed a player capable of soft hands at a quick-twitch position. Originally drafted as a shortstop, Shaw had experience at each of second base, short, and third across his time in the farm system. Considering the growth on that side of his game, it stands to reason that he could be deployed at any of the three spots on a given day. 

That's the most likely route, on paper. Have your three veterans entrenched around the horn and insert Shaw for off days or to rotate someone in as the designated hitter. You then have him as a rotation piece in the event of an injury to one of the other starters. Considering the offensive upside and evident defensive development, it's a way to deepen the bench in a way that the team did not see from the hodgepodge of reserve players last season.

There is a contractual component at play, as well. Shaw still has another six years of team control while second baseman Nico Hoerner is set to hit free agency after the 2026 campaign. Considering each of their situations, keeping Shaw as the backup infielder in a market bereft of other options makes sense—but it's not the only option.

Trading an infielder from the current roster could also help them round out the roster. It's a harder world to envision following the Edward Cabrera trade, but a surplus of viable infielders ignites the trade rumor instincts all the same. Hoerner has been the more oft-discussed trade chip. His impending free agency and the fact that his name has surfaced before ensure that. That doesn't mean Shaw could be completely immune, however. 

In his discussion of the Cubs' deal with Bregman, The Athletic's Keith Law noted the following (paid subscription required): 

Quote

"The Cubs now have one infielder too many, and they’re going to end up trading someone. The most obvious candidate is Shaw, whose rookie season was a disappointment at the plate thanks to some frequent mechanical changes and, according to people I’ve spoken to, resistance to help from the Cubs’ staff. He also made his priorities clear when he left the team during the pennant race to attend a political rally, missing a game the Cubs lost 1-0."

We have no way of knowing what the inner workings of the team's clubhouse might look like, last year or in the upcoming season. When you add resistance to coaching, though, you run into some issues that a front office may be more unwilling to tolerate. A Shaw trade is more likely than a Hoerner one.

Ultimately, though, the most likely outcome remains the one directly in front of them: Bregman takes over at third, Hoerner plays out his final year of his contract, and Shaw spends the interim bouncing around the infield. Perhaps he gets a stint in Iowa at some point just to work on his offense in a full-time capacity, but a secondary benefit of the Bregman deal was its lengthening of the bench. Keeping Shaw does that in the lowest-friction way possible.

View full article

[Rcal10]

To me, all it does is push Shaw to utility for a year. But if they do trade him it better be for someone with close to the same amount of control left and similar upside. Preferably a pitcher. Personally, I wouldn’t trade him. He would be my second baseman in ‘27. But there is a world where the Cubs can resign Hoerner and the pitcher they get for Shaw could be in the rotation next year. 
One example would be Shaw to the Angels for Soriano. That might not work. And I am not suggesting that exact move. It is just an example. A young bat for a young pitcher. But then they need to keep Hoerner beyond this season. And I am fine with that. 

[Rob]

Extend Hoerner.

Trade Shaw to San Francisco. Not because I think we match up well in a trade or anything -- I just think it'd be funny to make him live in San Francisco. 

[Development DL]

He will be an excellent Cub, depth is key for this year . 

[UMFan83]

This could be a turning point in his Cubs tenure that is for sure

[We Got The Whole 9]

Teammates and coaches voiced support publicly but it wouldnt surprise me at all if Hoyer was pulled aside by some and told that Shaw is an horsefeathers for leaving the team dry like that. It was an incredibly selfish move, and in particular for a freaking rookie.

[Banks-Williams]

They should have kept Shaw as the 3rd base starter. He was coming around hitting-wise.  Plus, he’s going to be the best 3rd base fielder in either the National League or the American. I doubt Bregman will ever win a golden glove going forward, but based on Shaw’s 2025 performance, he’ll get a few.  Too bad it probably won’t be for the Cubs. 

Bregman was a big waste of money.  His best years were when he knew the pitches being thrown at him. After his cheating years, he was average or just a little above par. Shaw will be way above par going forward.  Mark my words. I watched his every game in the majors. 

All they have to do is get Shaw to cease the left leg lift.  It throws off precision for contact. 

Edited January 12 by Banks-Williams

[Banks-Williams]

5 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

To me, all it does is push Shaw to utility for a year. 

I surely hope you are correct.  I would hate to see him leave. If only they could do a Paredes with Bregman, except faster. 

[Jason Ross]

21 minutes ago, Banks-Williams said:

They should have kept Shaw as the 3rd base starter. He was coming around hitting-wise.  Plus, he’s going to be the best 3rd base fielder in either the National League or the American. I doubt Bregman will ever win a golden glove going forward, but based on Shaw’s 2025 performance, he’ll get a few.  Too bad it probably won’t be for the Cubs. 

Bregman was a big waste of money.  His best years were when he knew the pitches being thrown at him. After his cheating years, he was average or just a little above par. Shaw will be way above par going forward.  Mark my words. I watched his every game in the majors. 

All they have to do is get Shaw to cease the left leg lift.  It throws off precision for contact. 

His two best years were in 2018 and 2019, when the cheating scandal was over. It's well known they stopped mid-way through 2018. He had virtually identical wRC+ from the first half to the second half (158 and 1`56). And none of that accounts for his 2019; easily his best season. He was also better on the road in 2017 than at home. 

You're not consistent in your messaging, and you seem to have just decided you hate Bregman without actually looking into what the cheating affected for him. You want to dislike him? Be my guest, but be factually correct about it.

[macarthur31]

That Keith Law/Athletic comment was interesting - at the time, the team seemed to do an effective job of mitigating the controversy of Shaw's attendance at the memorial services/political rally (it was reported as vetted by several veteran players and Counsell, as it was outside of the MLB bereavement policy).    However, just because the veterans were consulted doesn't necessarily guarantee that it was wholly endorsed.  I'm intuiting that Dansby Swanson was among the consulted - he who played games while tending to his wife Mallory as she suffered complications in recovering from surgery, I wondered how that landed on him.

Again, I don't necessarily see urgency in having to move Shaw because he's a "clubhouse cancer" or whatever - I expect that they can roll with Shaw being the "super sub", but I intuit that Jed might be more open to exploring deals with Shaw than Hoerner.

[Banks-Williams]

18 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

His two best years were in 2018 and 2019, when the cheating scandal was over. It's well known they stopped mid-way through 2018. He had virtually identical wRC+ from the first half to the second half (158 and 1`56). And none of that accounts for his 2019; easily his best season. He was also better on the road in 2017 than at home. 

You're not consistent in your messaging, and you seem to have just decided you hate Bregman without actually looking into what the cheating affected for him. You want to dislike him? Be my guest, but be factually correct about it.

It is not “well known” that they stopped mid 2018.  The story didn’t break until after the 2019 season ended.   There was no reason for them to stop. Heck, they won the ALCS and the WS because of their cheating — they had no problem with that. They didn’t stop them. Imagine how much money and notoriety they stole from the Yankees and Dodgers and others. And how could you possibly know such?

[Jason Ross]

1 hour ago, Banks-Williams said:

It is not “well known” that they stopped mid 2018.  The story didn’t break until after the 2019 season ended.   There was no reason for them to stop. Heck, they won the ALCS and the WS because of their cheating — they had no problem with that. They didn’t stop them. Imagine how much money and notoriety they stole from the Yankees and Dodgers and others. And how could you possibly know such?

The official MLB report found that the video software was used until mid-year 2018. They found no evidence of continued cheating. This is publicly available, so yes, well known. I'm uninterested in conspiracy theory beyond it. 

You've also made it very clear that Kyle Tucker who didn't play with the 2017 Astros, but did with the 2018 Astros and beyond doesn't count. So either the timeline to be upset is the MLB timeline, or you're a hypocrite for not throwing the same fit about Kyle Tucker. Which would you like it to be? 

Were you this upset that the Cubs acquired Ryan Pressly last year? He's been with the Astros since 2018. And before we say "well he's a pitcher", it was a pitcher, Mike Fiers who was the original whistleblower. So let's pick a lane. 

Again, if you want to dislike Bregman? Fine. But the sanctimonious pearl clutching of "my poor kids" and "they stole from players" doesn't read as genuine; it's so over the top that it reads like they were stealing the food out of impoverished children, not banging on a trash can to signal fastball or not. And you cannot, for the life of you, remain consistent in your critiques. 

You're not even really addressing the data. Why would Bregman hit better on the road? Why would his best season come in 2019 when the MLB itself claims the team had stopped using the illegal videos? 

[Banks-Williams]

I don’t trust the MLB.  I don’t even like it. They didn’t even take away the 2017 World Series title from Houston.  Why not?  They let a team keep their victory even though they had foreknowledge of all the pitches!  WTF!? Makes you wonder if the execs placed bets on Houston (with inside information perhaps) and were afraid they’d have to give the $$ back. 

As far your claim that he batted better on the road than at home, I highly doubt that is true. I also highly doubt you have personal knowledge of such; thus, what you state is merely heresay.

If you go on youtube, you can find many videos pointing out evidence of Houston cheating in 2019 — things like batters moving forward in the batters box and then getting a change-up that they hit over the wall.  Arolis Chapman believes Altuve cheated in game 6 of the 2019 ALCS when he hit his game 6 walk off. Suspicious Ken Rosenthal asked him why he was telling his team mates to not remove his shirt after the hit.  First he said he was shy, then he said his wife told him not to, then he said he has a bad tattoo.  You can see him wearing something around his neck, which some say was a signaling device.  All very odd — so do not tell me that you know they quit in 2018.  Stole the ALCS from the Yankees twice if true.  After seeing Altuve’s behavior, I agree with Chapman.

[Jason Ross]

42 minutes ago, Banks-Williams said:

I don’t trust the MLB.  I don’t even like it. They didn’t even take away the 2017 World Series title from Houston.  Why not?  They let a team keep their victory even though they had foreknowledge of all the pitches!  WTF!? Makes you wonder if the execs placed bets on Houston (with inside information perhaps) and were afraid they’d have to give the $$ back. 

As far your claim that he batted better on the road than at home, I highly doubt that is true. I also highly doubt you have personal knowledge of such; thus, what you state is merely heresay.

If you go on youtube, you can find many videos pointing out evidence of Houston cheating in 2019 — things like batters moving forward in the batters box and then getting a change-up that they hit over the wall.  Arolis Chapman believes Altuve cheated in game 6 of the 2019 ALCS when he hit his game 6 walk off. Suspicious Ken Rosenthal asked him why he was telling his team mates to not remove his shirt after the hit.  First he said he was shy, then he said his wife told him not to, then he said he has a bad tattoo.  You can see him wearing something around his neck, which some say was a signaling device.  All very odd — so do not tell me that you know they quit in 2018.  Stole the ALCS from the Yankees twice if true.  After seeing Altuve’s behavior, I agree with Chapman.

Bud, we have FanGraphs which is publicly available. You can go look at his split stats. You can view them here. In 2017, he had a 127 wRC+ on the road and a 117 wRC+ at home. Fun fact; he was 40 points of wRC+ better on the road in 2019 than he was at home - that was the best year of his career. It wasn't even close.

If wRC+ is too technical, than let's go with this: he hit 10 home runs on the road in 2017 and only nine at home. He had a higher batting average on the road. He had better slugging, too. 

In 2019, he hit 25 home runs on the road and 16 at home. His batting average was almost .40 points higher on the road. He struck out less. 

None of this makes sense. None of it. At this point you're kind of just devolving into the crazy guy on the street corner ranting about how there's bacteria in the water that the government put there. 

[Rcal10]

4 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Bud, we have FanGraphs which is publicly available. You can go look at his split stats. You can view them here. In 2017, he had a 127 wRC+ on the road and a 117 wRC+ at home. Yes, he was 10% better on the road. Fun fact; he was 40% better on the road in 2019 than he was at home - that was the best year of his career. 

At this point you're kind of just devolving into the crazy guy on the street corner ranting about how there's bacteria in the water that the government put there. 

WOW. You are spending way too much time arguing with a clueless individual or just someone who wants a reason to howl at the moon. He lost me when he questioned you on his home and road performance as if it couldn’t be verified. To add to your comments, Bregman’s career stats are better on the road. Just in case people want to suggest he took advantage of a short left field in Houston and Boston. I admire your patience. But this guy isn’t going to change. 

[Jason Ross]

4 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

WOW. You are spending way too much time arguing with a clueless individual or just someone who wants a reason to howl at the moon. He lost me when he questioned you on his home and road performance as if it couldn’t be verified. To add to your comments, Bregman’s career stats are better on the road. Just in case people want to suggest he took advantage of a short left field in Houston and Boston. I admire your patience. But this guy isn’t going to change. 

I willingly teach 125 middle school students daily. For eight hours a day I talk to unwilling participants who are ranting and raving like a lunatic. This one hasn't randomly screamed some brainrot TikTok trend yet, and I'll assume he's wearing deodorant (at least, I can't smell him through the computer) making it among the easiest interactions I've had all day.

Sometimes it's just fun to throw as many data points at someone and watch them twist themselves into a pretzel. 

[CubsFanInLV]

3 hours ago, Banks-Williams said:

They should have kept Shaw as the 3rd base starter. He was coming around hitting-wise.  Plus, he’s going to be the best 3rd base fielder in either the National League or the American. I doubt Bregman will ever win a golden glove going forward, but based on Shaw’s 2025 performance, he’ll get a few.  Too bad it probably won’t be for the Cubs. 

Bregman was a big waste of money.  His best years were when he knew the pitches being thrown at him. After his cheating years, he was average or just a little above par. Shaw will be way above par going forward.  Mark my words. I watched his every game in the majors. 

All they have to do is get Shaw to cease the left leg lift.  It throws off precision for contact. 

I AGREE..I think Shaw has talent, let alone GREAT DEFENSE which I witnessed in LA against the Dodgers. That line drive snag at 3rd WON us the Rubber game which cudda gone the Dodgers way of that gets through.  I'll take Defense over Offense any day and twice on Sunday. Example..Dansby Swanson. Shaw's hitting can be fixed with a good Coach. I don't dislike Bregman but I'm tired of Hoyer signing "Has been's and Never will be again".  Let Bregman DH a few games..couldn't hurt.

[Banks-Williams]

52 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Bud, we have FanGraphs which is publicly available. You can go look at his split stats. You can view them here. In 2017, he had a 127 wRC+ on the road and a 117 wRC+ at home. Fun fact; he was 40 points of wRC+ better on the road in 2019 than he was at home - that was the best year of his career. It wasn't even close.

If wRC+ is too technical, than let's go with this: he hit 10 home runs on the road in 2017 and only nine at home. He had a higher batting average on the road. He had better slugging, too. 

In 2019, he hit 25 home runs on the road and 16 at home. His batting average was almost .40 points higher on the road. He struck out less. 

None of this makes sense. None of it. At this point you're kind of just devolving into the crazy guy on the street corner ranting about how there's bacteria in the water that the government put there. 

You don’t get baseball stats or scientific method.

Bregman was worse in his prime years age 26-30 than in his cheating years age 23-25.  You’d expect him to hit better during those years, yet he does the opposite.   True pitchers have gotten better, but that didn’t happen in one year, 2019 to ‘20.

You try to compare home to road games.  Assuming the data you have is correct, it is only anecdotal because it is influenced by events.  He is facing the same teams, that is, the same pitchers and catchers.  He knows how the pitchers and catchers think.  He’s seen the pitch series before.  He knows how they like to set the batters up — so he will hit better on the road too.  And that brings his overall numbers up.  The road/home numbers could just be randomness; they could be the result of trouble at home with the wife, newborn babies who keep him up, friends who call,  drinking alcohol at home with company, etc etc.  You just don’t know.

But if you compare the years, like I did, all these factors cancel themselves out.  A yearly comparison thus is far more controlled.  The road/home comparison is scientifically flawed.

Okay — so that’s it for me. I’m not going to teach you science further.

Edited January 13 by Banks-Williams

[Jason Ross]

19 minutes ago, Banks-Williams said:

You don’t get baseball stats or scientific method.

Bregman was worse in his prime years age 26-30 than in his cheating years age 23-25.  You’d expect him to hit better during those years, yet he does the opposite.   True pitchers have gotten better, but that didn’t happen in one year, 2019 to ‘20.

You try to compare home to road games.  Assuming the data you have is correct, it is only anecdotal because it is influenced by events.  He is facing the same teams, that is, the same pitchers and catchers.  He knows how the pitchers and catchers think.  He’s seen the pitch series before.  He knows how they like to set the batters up — so he will hit better on the road too.  And that brings his overall numbers up.  The road/home numbers could just be randomness; they could be the result of trouble at home with the wife, newborn babies who keep him up, friends who call,  drinking alcohol at home with company, etc etc.  You just don’t know.

But if you compare the years, like I did, all these factors cancel themselves out.  A yearly comparison thus is far more controlled.  The road/home comparison is scientifically flawed.

Okay — so that’s it for me. I’m not going to teach you science further.

If we are at the level of "question Fangraphs integrity" then we are just grasping at straws; not that we already weren't, but that's a pretty clear "wave the white flag" moment. 

You obviously also don't understand stabilization and sample size. Yes, both of those samples are larger than all accepted stabilization rates. You read up on those here, if you care about. Stabilization and MLB statistics.

Only one of us has brought data. But I'm sure youre a bastian of the scientific community. Enjoy not watching Cubs game until 2031. 

[Soul]

On 1/12/2026 at 6:26 PM, CubsFanInLV said:

I AGREE..I think Shaw has talent, let alone GREAT DEFENSE which I witnessed in LA against the Dodgers. That line drive snag at 3rd WON us the Rubber game which cudda gone the Dodgers way of that gets through.  I'll take Defense over Offense any day and twice on Sunday. Example..Dansby Swanson. Shaw's hitting can be fixed with a good Coach. I don't dislike Bregman but I'm tired of Hoyer signing "Has been's and Never will be again".  Let Bregman DH a few games..couldn't hurt.

Bregman won the gold glove in 2024.  His defense can't be that bad bruh.  Last year he was 800+ OPS, 128 OPS+, and (not sure anyone cares anymore) an all star.  His numbers are improvements over 2023 and 2024.  So there's no indication he's falling off a cliff due to age.

Look, nobody can predict this year.  I was incredibly disappointed with Tucker's 2nd half last year.  I didn't see that coming.  Admittedly we had him as a rental but also that meant we had to replace him immediately.  I just don't think the argument that Bregman's somehow a product of cheating is particularly compelling.  Nor is the argument that his defense is bad, or that we are now choosing between him and Shaw since Shaw is still on the team (as of right now).  Counsell creates opportunities for his bench to get play time as well.  A utility guy with exceptional defense that can be plugged in strategically?  Yes please.

Bregman's expensive.  Cubs are a huge market team and it was about damn time they spent a little money.  Don't worry about the Ricketts, dude.  They're fine.

Edited January 14 by Soul
Additional detail

[squally1313]

On 1/12/2026 at 6:58 PM, Banks-Williams said:

You don’t get baseball stats or scientific method.

Bregman was worse in his prime years age 26-30 than in his cheating years age 23-25.  You’d expect him to hit better during those years, yet he does the opposite.   True pitchers have gotten better, but that didn’t happen in one year, 2019 to ‘20.

You try to compare home to road games.  Assuming the data you have is correct, it is only anecdotal because it is influenced by events.  He is facing the same teams, that is, the same pitchers and catchers.  He knows how the pitchers and catchers think.  He’s seen the pitch series before.  He knows how they like to set the batters up — so he will hit better on the road too.  And that brings his overall numbers up.  The road/home numbers could just be randomness; they could be the result of trouble at home with the wife, newborn babies who keep him up, friends who call,  drinking alcohol at home with company, etc etc.  You just don’t know.

But if you compare the years, like I did, all these factors cancel themselves out.  A yearly comparison thus is far more controlled.  The road/home comparison is scientifically flawed.

Okay — so that’s it for me. I’m not going to teach you science further.

I love this so much