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The Chicago Cubs' signing of Alex Bregman represented a significant deviation from the norm, on a couple different levels. Given the team's unwillingness to dabble in the deep end of free agent waters in recent years, it was surprising in the simplest way: they made the splash this time. They also made some unusual concessions. Not only did they hand out the largest average annual value in the franchise's history (even after accounting for deferrals), but they agreed to deferrals to structure the deal the way Bregman and agent Scott Boras preferred it. As it relates to the 2026 club, though, the most eye-opening change of direction might be the way it alters the future of third base—and the future of the team's incumbent at that spot.
When the Cubs were attached to Bregman in the winter of 2024-25, part of the thinking was that signing him would give top prospect Matt Shaw a safety net. Perhaps he would eventually come up in response to an injury or supplement the lineup in a utility capacity, but Chicago wouldn't have to force him into the lineup if either phase of the game wasn't quite ready for the top level. After Bregman signed with Boston instead, Shaw assumed starting duties at the hot corner. The results were uneven.
Shaw checked in with a .226/.295/.394 line at the end of 2025, wrapping up the year with a wRC+ of 93 and a fWAR of 1.5. His second half was better than his first; he posted a 130 wRC+ against a mark of 60 in the first half. The power also manifested more frequently, with a .258 ISO in the second half coming after a paltry .082 figure in the first. Even within that, though, there was cause for concern.
After recording a 127 wRC+ and .307 ISO in August, Shaw's September figures were 95 and .153 in the two metrics, respectively. His 27.7% September strikeout rate was his highest in an individual month, and he notched only two hits in 23 postseason plate appearances. The flashes, in conjunction with the team's aforementioned hesitation of big contracts, left at least a feeling that it'd once again be Shaw's job to lose.
Instead, the youngster's future is now very much in question. The wide assumption is that he'll remain on the major-league roster, but in more of a utility capacity. Defensively, Shaw was quite good for the better part of last year. Even if the metrics may not have loved him over a full season, the eye test revealed a player capable of soft hands at a quick-twitch position. Originally drafted as a shortstop, Shaw had experience at each of second base, short, and third across his time in the farm system. Considering the growth on that side of his game, it stands to reason that he could be deployed at any of the three spots on a given day.
That's the most likely route, on paper. Have your three veterans entrenched around the horn and insert Shaw for off days or to rotate someone in as the designated hitter. You then have him as a rotation piece in the event of an injury to one of the other starters. Considering the offensive upside and evident defensive development, it's a way to deepen the bench in a way that the team did not see from the hodgepodge of reserve players last season.
There is a contractual component at play, as well. Shaw still has another six years of team control while second baseman Nico Hoerner is set to hit free agency after the 2026 campaign. Considering each of their situations, keeping Shaw as the backup infielder in a market bereft of other options makes sense—but it's not the only option.
Trading an infielder from the current roster could also help them round out the roster. It's a harder world to envision following the Edward Cabrera trade, but a surplus of viable infielders ignites the trade rumor instincts all the same. Hoerner has been the more oft-discussed trade chip. His impending free agency and the fact that his name has surfaced before ensure that. That doesn't mean Shaw could be completely immune, however.
In his discussion of the Cubs' deal with Bregman, The Athletic's Keith Law noted the following (paid subscription required):
Quote"The Cubs now have one infielder too many, and they’re going to end up trading someone. The most obvious candidate is Shaw, whose rookie season was a disappointment at the plate thanks to some frequent mechanical changes and, according to people I’ve spoken to, resistance to help from the Cubs’ staff. He also made his priorities clear when he left the team during the pennant race to attend a political rally, missing a game the Cubs lost 1-0."
We have no way of knowing what the inner workings of the team's clubhouse might look like, last year or in the upcoming season. When you add resistance to coaching, though, you run into some issues that a front office may be more unwilling to tolerate. A Shaw trade is more likely than a Hoerner one.
Ultimately, though, the most likely outcome remains the one directly in front of them: Bregman takes over at third, Hoerner plays out his final year of his contract, and Shaw spends the interim bouncing around the infield. Perhaps he gets a stint in Iowa at some point just to work on his offense in a full-time capacity, but a secondary benefit of the Bregman deal was its lengthening of the bench. Keeping Shaw does that in the lowest-friction way possible.
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