Screw Winter Doldrums! The Get a Big Bat and Call It an Offseason Thread

[Stratos]

12 hours ago, Hortonhearsawho said:

Does Jed agree though. 

What we know about Jed from last 2 years is that he'll likely at least try to a decent degree.  He never acts desperate though.

[Stratos]

11 hours ago, ILMindState said:

Is there a Michael Busch type prospect available? A highly regarded prospect with no options but blocked in the majors. 

Owen Caissie? I kid, I kid....

[Stratos]

11 hours ago, Tryptamine said:

Yup, now that the deal seems to be official, Jed can get down to the nitty gritty on all the numbers. Please for the love of god Jed don't get me all excited about 2026 and then not finish it with a premier bat.

The thing is I think the modern offseason for FOs is a lot about waiting for the asking prices to come down, so we could be waiting a bunch more...

[Geographyhater8888]

10 hours ago, Tryptamine said:

I'm not really sure I see the point to Eugenio Suarez even if he is available. I definitely don't want his glove at 3B  over Shaw and while he can hit, is he going to be significantly better than Mo would be at DH? Despite 49 HRs he only put up a 125 wRC+ which is still quite good but not overwhelmingly amazing. I think there's a pretty good chance Mo puts up a 115-120 wRC+ this year and without the 20+M annually that comes with Suarez.

Suarez best fit would be splitting time at DH with Bellestaros as a platoon option if they whiff on all sexy bats. Even then I doubt he’d want to play here with other opportunities to be an every day starter.

Edited January 8 by Geographyhater8888

[CubUgly]

10 hours ago, Tryptamine said:

I'm not really sure I see the point to Eugenio Suarez even if he is available. I definitely don't want his glove at 3B  over Shaw and while he can hit, is he going to be significantly better than Mo would be at DH? Despite 49 HRs he only put up a 125 wRC+ which is still quite good but not overwhelmingly amazing. 

That is kind of amazing, pretty hard to do I would think.  He was really bad for Seattle down the stretch of the regular season.  Did have one big homer in the playoffs off of Diaz but even post season BA was .213 with a .275 OBP in 47 At bats and struck out 18 of those 47 at bats.  Hard pass and for me an easy pass. 

[Rcal10]

56 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

Suarez best fit would be splitting time at DH with Bellestaros as a platoon option if they whiff on all sexy bats. Even then I doubt he’d want to play here with other opportunities to be an every day starter.

I’m not advocating for Suarez. I don’t want him either. But if they did sign him, he wouldn’t platoon with Mo. Mo wouldn’t even be on the team. Suarez and Shaw would be in the line up everyday. Bench would be Alcantara, Amaya/Kelly, Austin and a utility guy.

I don’t want him.

[17 Seconds]

i want tucker back pretty badly

[Geographyhater8888]

17 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I’m not advocating for Suarez. I don’t want him either. But if they did sign him, he wouldn’t platoon with Mo. Mo wouldn’t even be on the team. Suarez and Shaw would be in the line up everyday. Bench would be Alcantara, Amaya/Kelly, Austin and a utility guy.

I don’t want him.

What am I missing with Austin? He hasn’t taken a major league at bat since 2019 and he’s penciled in as a quality bench bat?

[Jason Ross]

4 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

What am I missing with Austin? He hasn’t taken a major league at bat since 2019 and he’s penciled in as a quality bench bat?

He absolutely murdered LHP in Japan. He was one of their absolute best hitters for the last half decade. 

Should we expect the 170 wRC+ to carry over exactly? Probably not. But he's made a lot of changes to his swing and approach and I think him being a good hitter against LHP seems very possible. 

I think he'll be much closer to what we hoped Justin Turner was last year - someone who will give you a strong at bat against LHP while tacking on 10 or so home runs. 

[Geographyhater8888]

16 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

He absolutely murdered LHP in Japan. He was one of their absolute best hitters for the last half decade. 

Should we expect the 170 wRC+ to carry over exactly? Probably not. But he's made a lot of changes to his swing and approach and I think him being a good hitter against LHP seems very possible. 

I think he'll be much closer to what we hoped Justin Turner was last year - someone who will give you a strong at bat against LHP while tacking on 10 or so home runs. 

Thanks for clarifying. So Busch will still platoon then.

Edited January 8 by Geographyhater8888

[Jason Ross]

1 minute ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

Thanks for clarifying. So Busch will still platoon then.

I don't think that's necessarily the plan. Austin can handle some corner OF in theory, and DH, and 1b. I think it'll be a fluid situation. Busch will probably sit against some lefties, but I don't think it's as simple as "Busch and Austin". I suspect the Cubs will use data and determine the best lineup daily.

[Geographyhater8888]

8 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

I don't think that's necessarily the plan. Austin can handle some corner OF in theory, and DH, and 1b. I think it'll be a fluid situation. Busch will probably sit against some lefties, but I don't think it's as simple as "Busch and Austin". I suspect the Cubs will use data and determine the best lineup daily.

What is Busch’s ceiling in your opinion? 

[mk49]

36 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

He absolutely murdered LHP in Japan. He was one of their absolute best hitters for the last half decade. 

I just checked Austin's stats in Japan.  He played only 403 games in 6 seasons.  So, it's probably more like one of the best hitters, when he's healthy.  That said, if he doesn't play everyday, maybe, he would be able to avoid injuries.  

[Jason Ross]

7 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

What is Busch’s ceiling in your opinion? 

Top-5 1b in baseball offensively. 

[Jason Ross]

5 minutes ago, mk49 said:

I just checked Austin's stats in Japan.  He played only 403 games in 6 seasons.  So, it's probably more like one of the best hitters, when he's healthy.  That said, if he doesn't play everyday, maybe, he would be able to avoid injuries.  

He was banged up at times, but would expect he won't be used as often here. I don't think he'll be used very often against RHP. And he really only has to make it through a one year contract. 

He had 445 PA's in 2024. So it's very doable.

[Rcal10]

Now that we can check off adding a quality starting pitcher my ideal ending to the off season would be:

Trade Tailon

Sign Gallen

Sign Bichette.

That would take them over the first LT line, but they would have enough money to spend at the tdl to add without going to the next level. This would lessen the issue with guys leaving next year. As a major market they should be able to spend beyond that line every so often. TBH, Tom never said they won’t go over. He has said every dollar of revenue the team brings in he spends on the team. It just so happens to conveniently come in right under the LT. 🤢 But if what he says is true he shouldn’t have a problem going over this year. Saved a lot last year and they had 5 home playoff games. So he has more money. Spend it.

FYI, I know this won’t happen. But to me it is an awesome, doable off season. Next year they have Shaw and Bichette at 2nd and 3rd, Mo is the DH and they need 2 outfielders and probably another pitcher. They would have a rotation of Cabrera, Horton, Steele, Gallen and probably Wiggins. Gallen and Bichette replace Tailon and Hoerner now instead of waiting. And they get one year of Hoerner with Bichette. They lose Happ, Suzuki, Imanaga, Boyd, Kelly and Hoerner next year. Pretty sure they can be under the LT while still adding decent pieces to the team. Maybe even bring back Suzuki or Happ.

[Tryptamine]

1 hour ago, Rcal10 said:

Now that we can check off adding a quality starting pitcher my ideal ending to the off season would be:

Trade Tailon

Sign Gallen

Sign Bichette.

That would take them over the first LT line, but they would have enough money to spend at the tdl to add without going to the next level. This would lessen the issue with guys leaving next year. As a major market they should be able to spend beyond that line every so often. TBH, Tom never said they won’t go over. He has said every dollar of revenue the team brings in he spends on the team. It just so happens to conveniently come in right under the LT. 🤢 But if what he says is true he shouldn’t have a problem going over this year. Saved a lot last year and they had 5 home playoff games. So he has more money. Spend it.

FYI, I know this won’t happen. But to me it is an awesome, doable off season. Next year they have Shaw and Bichette at 2nd and 3rd, Mo is the DH and they need 2 outfielders and probably another pitcher. They would have a rotation of Cabrera, Horton, Steele, Gallen and probably Wiggins. Gallen and Bichette replace Tailon and Hoerner now instead of waiting. And they get one year of Hoerner with Bichette. They lose Happ, Suzuki, Imanaga, Boyd, Kelly and Hoerner next year. Pretty sure they can be under the LT while still adding decent pieces to the team. Maybe even bring back Suzuki or Happ.

I like trading Taillon for Gallen in that it's also one less hole to fill after this offseason where they're going to have to fill a ton of them. Performance wise, I don't think there's going to be a whole lot of difference though. Trying to replace all of Shota, Boyd, Taillon, Nico, Seiya, Happ and Kelly in 1 offseason is way too big a project. 

[Rcal10]

3 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

I like trading Taillon for Gallen in that it's also one less hole to fill after this offseason where they're going to have to fill a ton of them. Performance wise, I don't think there's going to be a whole lot of difference though. Trying to replace all of Shota, Boyd, Taillon, Nico, Seiya, Happ and Kelly in 1 offseason is way too big a project. 

Right. So get Gallen and even Bichette now. 

[squally1313]

1 hour ago, Jason Ross said:

Top-5 1b in baseball offensively. 

Fourth in wOBA, 5th in xwOBA last year, which is really to point out just how good he was last year and that we shouldn't expect much more of a jump. If they give him more PAs against LHPs, expect the pure outputs to probably go down, even if he's providing value by freeing up some flexibility on the bench (like, him even putting up a 115 wRC against LHPs would help the team a lot in terms of not needing to carry a platoon guy, but would almost certainly drag down his overall numbers). Kinda hoping to see his non-first baseman upbringing turn him into an elite defensive first baseman. He's already more than fine, but there's value to be gotten there. 

[chibears55]

17 hours ago, ILMindState said:

Who do we think is the priority here?

Bichette

Bergman

Tucker 

Belli?

Suarez if you whiff on all 4?

Depends on if theres a budget and what it is.

If they sit at around 215 now in payroll and Hoyer needs to stay under the Threshold that leaves them with approx. 28, plus then who knows if and how much he wants to save for that in season moves.

So are any of these guys willing to take 20 or less, probably not.

Maybe they trade Rea and open up another 5 mil. and they can offer someone up to 25.

 

[squally1313]

10 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Right. So get Gallen and even Bichette now. 

Rough math here: FG has us at $55m for next year which is basically Swanson and Maton plus benefits and all the other things. Using FG estimates, Bichette at $27m and Gallen at $22m brings you to $104m. Let's give Steele $8m, Assad $2.5m, Cabrera $5m, $119.5m. Amaya, Busch, PCA, and Palencia all hit arbitration....$15m total, plus minimum salaries for Horton and Shaw gets you to $135.5m. From there, with roughly $100m to spend, you're short a LF, a RF, a DH, one starter in the rotation (could be Wiggins but we need depth anyways), a bullpen beyond Palencia/Maton/Assad, and a bench. That all feels....fairly doable?

And after that, there's not really a cliff in the foreseeable future. In the above scenario I already wrote off Kelly, Boyd, and Thielbar's mutual 2027 options, and so the only free agent after 2027 is Steele. Assad and Cabrera in 2028, Amaya/Busch in 2029, PCA/Palencia/Horton in 2030, Shaw in 2031. 

I'm still surprised the Cubs made one move, so making three more seems like really pushing it. But yeah, Taillon is a good dude and carried us for a little bit down the stretch there, but that spoke more to the lack of contribution literally anywhere else in the rotation more than him being some stud pitcher. Take your pick of the three bats, sell Taillon, go from there. 

[Geographyhater8888]

At bats vs Lefties and Miles Mikolas no longer in the division will be the reasons Busch’s production dips. 

[chibears55]

2 hours ago, 17 Seconds said:

i want tucker back pretty badly

I think this could be Hoyers plan A right now as they do need a RFer which would allow them to keep Suzuki as DH and ease Mo into it all, and also allow them to keep him in Iowa and work on his catching. 

Bichette is probably plan B and maybe they work with Shaw in the OF to give him/them a little more flexibility.

I think Bregman looking for at least 30 mil which would be too much for the Cubs if the plan is to stay under the Threshold. 

I just dont see Bellinger wanting to return unless of course the price is right and like Bregman, I dont see the Cubs offering more than 25 to anyone unless they go over the Threshold. 

[CubinNY]

To quote John Candy in Stripes," But that's me, I'm an aggressive gambler, Mr. Vegas". I would sign Gallen and Bo and then strut around like Vince McMahon at the WWE compound whenever I saw another division rival's GM. 

[chibears55]

Hey if all else fails and they dont land one of the 4 big bats, they can always get Bader 👀 Or bring back Tauchman.