Winter Doldrums Thread

[Rcal10]

Just now, squally1313 said:

Im also fairly tired of this whole ‘the cubs are uniquely approaching free agency with an eye towards this hypothetical lockout. None of the other big teams seem to be shying away from signing long term deals with elite players, but still, Clean Books.’ Like the mlb is going to force the dodgers to cut Ohtani or something. 

Right. It is BS. Even if they put a hard cap in, how does it affect the Cubs with all the FA they have next year? And it will surely be bigger then this year anyway. 

[chibears55]

1 hour ago, Rcal10 said:

How does Jed go about getting “star” players? By signing mega deals? Does ownership and the FO strike you as being willing to do that. I don’t agree you have to have superstars to win the WS. Teams win a WS. Not individuals. But if the Cubs really need to sign a superstar to win a WS, they will never win. That isn’t how they do things. Jed has put together a group of good players and built a good team. Sure, I wish they would go further. I wish they flexed their financial muscle, but ownership isn’t going to do that, therefore they aren’t getting the star 

im not blaming Jed, i even said that about the budget he has..

My point was just that they cant just keep relying on hoping guys overplay their value to be competitive year after year, eventually they need to pay star players, will that ever happen who knows, but as we have seen being able to have continious sustainable success isnt going to happen just by hoping guys play above their value.

That just brings them success in pockets 

 

[Irrelevant Dude]

16 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Right. It is BS. Even if they put a hard cap in, how does it affect the Cubs with all the FA they have next year?

Not at all.  If they put a hard cap in, I bet it won't even affect the Dodgers in the immediate term.  It would probably be phased in with exceptions for teams that have already committed money above the cap.  Clearly the Dodgers aren't worried about it, nor should the Cubs be.

[chibears55]

2 hours ago, mul21 said:

Without looking, who was the highest paid player on the 2016 team?

I looked..lol

I would of guessed Heyward but it was Lester, so what your point? 

[Rcal10]

22 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

im not blaming Jed, i even said that about the budget he has..

My point was just that they cant just keep relying on hoping guys overplay their value to be competitive year after year, eventually they need to pay star players, will that ever happen who knows, but as we have seen being able to have continious sustainable success isnt going to happen just by hoping guys play above their value.

That just brings them success in pockets 

 

I don’t agree with this. Why can’t value signing continue to provide value? The FO isn’t “hoping” a guy they sign underpriced plays to a higher value. They are predicting he will. Why are they less likely to provide excess value than a star signing provides? Swanson has provided excess value well over Bogaerts and Correa. Would they have been better off signing the star, Correa? Honestly I am having a hard time understanding a point to your comments. Does signing a star player guarantee that star will outperform his contract. Cubs traded for Tucker last year. He is a star player. He even performed to his contract cost. And where did it get the Cubs? 

[Geographyhater8888]

14 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

I don’t agree with this. Why can’t value signing continue to provide value? The FO isn’t “hoping” a guy they sign underpriced plays to a higher value. They are predicting he will. Why are they less likely to provide excess value than a star signing provides? Swanson has provided excess value well over Bogaerts and Correa. Would they have been better off signing the star, Correa? Honestly I am having a hard time understanding a point to your comments. Does signing a star player guarantee that star will outperform his contract. Cubs traded for Tucker last year. He is a star player. He even performed to his contract cost. And where did it get the Cubs? 

Not in hindsight and I’m sure jed took the injuries into consideration too. Jed uses good judgment and in no way do I think he’s a bad a GM. Trea Turner or Seager back in 2022 you could argue they would’ve been better off with.
A difference of between $2 and $7.5 million AAV. Jed’s refusal to give out the years for free agent slam dunks hurts them in the immediate. 
For $8 years $218 million Max Fried was available. Instead for equivalent AAV he found great value in Boyd and Rae. Who would the Cubs be better off with? In a best of playoff series I’m taking fried over innings over Boyd and Rae who was of no use pitching with a lead. 

Edited January 7 by Geographyhater8888

[mul21]

14 hours ago, chibears55 said:

I looked..lol

I would of guessed Heyward but it was Lester, so what your point? 

The 4 highest paid players on that team were Lester, Heyward, Lackey, and Montero who were 4th, 19th, 9th, and 14th respectively in fWAR on that team.  The point is that the roster will always need to be supplemented with good players who are expensive but you almost have to get great value from homegrown talent unless you're going to spend like the Dodgers or Mets, and even then, that doesn't always end well. How far did the Padres, Mets and Yankees get with Soto?

[Jason Ross]

I posted parts of this article from Sammon/Rosenthal in the Bichette thread as well, but because this portion deals with the Cubs and pitching, it's probably good to toss that part here:

Quote

In addition to Bregman and Bichette, the Cubs continue to pursue a starting pitcher in both free agency and trade.

Full article

There isn't a lot else there on this front, but worthwhile to add.

[Rcal10]

45 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

Not in hindsight and I’m sure jed took the injuries into consideration too. Jed uses good judgment and in no way do I think he’s a bad a GM. Trea Turner or Seager back in 2022 you could argue they would’ve been better off with.
A difference of between $2 and $7.5 million AAV. Jed’s refusal to give out the years for free agent slam dunks hurts them in the immediate. 
For $8 years $218 million Max Fried was available. Instead for equivalent AAV he found great value in Boyd and Rae. Who would the Cubs be better off with? In a best of player series I at least the choice is simple.

To your post, yes the best player available is the best option.

But people who suggest Jed will never get the superstar and will always only settle for good players are right. But is it Jed who is risk adverse or Tom? Will Tim just not do it because he knows on the back end the deal suck? We don’t know. But let’s say it is Jed. So he doesn’t want to giving a 10 year deal to a superstar. For this season, let’s use Tucker. Let’s make it simple, 10/$370. Assuming Tom is not ever going to play over the LT on a regular basis, what happens if Tucker ends up with injuries most years that makes his contract an albatross. Not even Kris Bryant bad, but bad. The Cubs ownership won’t go over the LT to bring in other good players, they will just allow the team to try being competing with a waste of $37M a year on the roster. At least with good players and less years they aren’t wasting as many years or money if that player end up with problems staying healthy or maybe just not being very good. Look at the Phillies. They carried Castellanos and still added. They had Realmuto for a high salary, Nola too. But they signed Schwarber again. Hell, the Dodgers were paying guys not in the playoff roster more than some teams payroll. They have carried bad contracts for years. Even before this unprecedented spending of money. Padres, who are said to be broke. Spent money even with a bad Bogaerts contract. There are more. But the point is, I don’t see Tim allowing that. Cubs would just have to ride it out and suck. A major market team should be able to compete, even with a bad contract or two. And until Rom gives the green light that he will go over the LT on a semi regular basis, I don’t really blame Jed for being risk adverse. One wrong mega contract could set the team into sucking for a decade. 

[Geographyhater8888]

1 hour ago, Rcal10 said:

To your post, yes the best player available is the best option.

But people who suggest Jed will never get the superstar and will always only settle for good players are right. But is it Jed who is risk adverse or Tom? Will Tim just not do it because he knows on the back end the deal suck? We don’t know. But let’s say it is Jed. So he doesn’t want to giving a 10 year deal to a superstar. For this season, let’s use Tucker. Let’s make it simple, 10/$370. Assuming Tom is not ever going to play over the LT on a regular basis, what happens if Tucker ends up with injuries most years that makes his contract an albatross. Not even Kris Bryant bad, but bad. The Cubs ownership won’t go over the LT to bring in other good players, they will just allow the team to try being competing with a waste of $37M a year on the roster. At least with good players and less years they aren’t wasting as many years or money if that player end up with problems staying healthy or maybe just not being very good. Look at the Phillies. They carried Castellanos and still added. They had Realmuto for a high salary, Nola too. But they signed Schwarber again. Hell, the Dodgers were paying guys not in the playoff roster more than some teams payroll. They have carried bad contracts for years. Even before this unprecedented spending of money. Padres, who are said to be broke. Spent money even with a bad Bogaerts contract. There are more. But the point is, I don’t see Tim allowing that. Cubs would just have to ride it out and suck. A major market team should be able to compete, even with a bad contract or two. And until Rom gives the green light that he will go over the LT on a semi regular basis, I don’t really blame Jed for being risk adverse. One wrong mega contract could set the team into sucking for a decade. 

I’m not saying he should he should hand out multiple $300 million contracts but is the goal to be the Steelers of baseball or perhaps something similar to the Rangers or Phillies? There’s drawbacks to that obviously and Jed has chosen a different path. $27-$30 million in 6 years wont be as costly as it is now due to inflation.

Hes kept all of the young talent. He can stay under the LT while paying one player $27-30 million with years attached. Like in my Max Fried hypothetical. They’re not the padres who are on the hook for Machado, Tatis and Boggarts who’ve also traded prospects for Soto and Mason Miller. That’s a lot of sunken costs in the future. My Max Fried hypothetical for example. Rae+Boyd make equivalent AAV.  
 

 

Edited January 7 by Geographyhater8888

[Rcal10]

13 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

I’m not saying he should he should hand out multiple $300 million contracts but is the goal to be the Steelers of baseball or perhaps something similar to the Rangers or Phillies? There’s drawbacks to that obviously and Jed has chosen a different path. $27-$30 million in 6 years wont be as costly as it is now due to inflation.

Hes kept all of the young talent. He can stay under the LT while paying one player $27-30 million with years attached. Like in my Max Fried hypothetical. They’re not the padres who are on the hook for Machado, Tatis and Boggarts who’ve also traded prospects for Soto and Mason Miller. That’s a lot of sunken costs in the future. My Max Fried hypothetical for example. Rae+Boyd make equivalent AAV.  
 

 

I’m not arguing with you. I agree who would be the better player. However, is Rea and Boyd comparable in salary to Fried? I don’t think that is true. 
Anyway, that isn’t the point of my response. I am just trying to make sense as to why Jed wouldn’t do a max year, max salary contract, even if Tom would be ok with it. Other large market teams work behind a bad contract. Cubs won’t. 

[Geographyhater8888]

9 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I’m not arguing with you. I agree who would be the better player. However, is Rea and Boyd comparable in salary to Fried? I don’t think that is true. 
Anyway, that isn’t the point of my response. I am just trying to make sense as to why Jed wouldn’t do a max year, max salary contract, even if Tom would be ok with it. Other large market teams work behind a bad contract. Cubs won’t. 

Fried is making $27.25 million per year, not sure if it comes with deferred $ or not while Boyd and Rae come in at $26 million.

But it Sounds like a Rickets thing. If “sustained success” is a stated goal then sunken costs on long term contracts will hurt you financially in 2032. I’ll repeat myself again with how similar it is to the 2000’s Sox and even the Rose era Bulls.

Edited January 7 by Geographyhater8888

[Jason Ross]

I know many have written him off, but a new curve would be a huge thing for Wicks. 

[Rex Buckingham]

1 minute ago, ILMindState said:

 

Welcome to the offseason Jed!

[Derwood]

[Outshined_One]

Wait whaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaat

[Jason Ross]

Lets. horsefeathers, Go.

That should make you feel good about a possible FA bat. There's plenty of money.

[Hortonhearsawho]

This opens the door to be able to spend big time money on either Bichette or Bregman or hell even Bellinger or Tucker if someone like Caissie is in the trade for Cabrera. 

[ILMindState]

"Jed got fleeced, Cabrera sucks!"

[Irrelevant Dude]

Just now, Hortonhearsawho said:

This opens the door to be able to spend big time money on either Bichette or Bregman or hell even Bellinger or Tucker if someone like Caissie is in the trade for Cabrera. 

Out of all those, I just don't like the Bellinger fit.  He is fine, but he is a much better fit for Yankee Stadium.

[Dfan25]

If Cerami is wrong , I punch him in his balls . 

[Jason Ross]

2 minutes ago, Dfan25 said:

If Cerami is wrong , I punch him in his balls . 

He isn't. 

[Hortonhearsawho]

2 minutes ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

Out of all those, I just don't like the Bellinger fit.  He is fine, but he is a much better fit for Yankee Stadium.

Yeah I agree but he's going to make a lot less money than Tucker so I think he's more likely to come back then Tucker would be.

[Outshined_One]

Since this is the current mega thread, I'm going to be splitting off Edward Cabrera news into the other thread if it gets posted here.  No offense to anyone, but I'd rather keep folks from having to jump back and forth to see if any updates pop up.

[chibears55]

4 hours ago, mul21 said:

The 4 highest paid players on that team were Lester, Heyward, Lackey, and Montero who were 4th, 19th, 9th, and 14th respectively in fWAR on that team.  The point is that the roster will always need to be supplemented with good players who are expensive but you almost have to get great value from homegrown talent unless you're going to spend like the Dodgers or Mets, and even then, that doesn't always end well. How far did the Padres, Mets and Yankees get with Soto?

I never said a roster doesn't need inexpensive good players or homegrown. my point was just that you cant just keep relying on just a roster full of good players and young players year after year and hoping you get above average play from some so you can be competitive.

To stay competitive every year and open a big window, you need to mix in that big bat and or big SP, those guys can carry a team through long stresses.

Do they win 90+ games without Tucker, i doubt it, and i doubt they win 90+ this season without Tucker or another big bat in the lineup like him.

Im not saying they need to spend like the Dodgers or Mets and have a team full of 25+ per year players, but they do need to start being more aggressive with trades or FA when it comes to adding a stud player or two and not just keep relying on a roster of players you hope to get great value from to be competitive for that season. 

Hopefully next offseason if they dont do it this one, Ricketts will allow Jed to not just spend more but attach some long-term deals to the star players so they stay.

 

EDIT: after sending this i just read about Cabrera, that a start, now get that bat, likely be Bichette.

Awesome 

Edited January 7 by chibears55