Winter Doldrums Thread

[Jason Ross]

24 minutes ago, thawv said:

I don't know who you use as your go to prospect page, but Fangraphs has the 4 guys traded from Baltimore's organization as their #11, #17, #20, #27.  I know that Pipeline has their organizational rankings higher, but Pipeline gives a guy a 40 tool grade if he can tie his shoes.  FG is much more conservative and pragmatic.  To me this looks like more of a quantity trade.  Of course they may all be stars!  But right, I'm going to side with FG.  

Fangraphs isn't a great prospect resource right now. They aren't dumb, but they are slow to update - I try not to use FG unless they're an outlier (for example, Logenhagen was the high-man on the pitcher that went for Shane Bieber at the deadline - but that's also around when FG updates things). As well, the Orioles have a super-deep system and guys like Bassalo are still on the list, even though they're MLB players now (he just still has "prospect" status due to a lack of PA).

Instead of using FG's prospect rankings, use this article, also written by Logenhagen. 

This is a significant return for Baz. Caden Bodine had first-round-hype and fell because of signability more than talent, Slater de Brun got the highest bonus of any non-first round pick in the same draft. And there's a Comp-A pick.

The Rays just essentially got three first round picks + two other prospects for a pitcher who has some cool under the hood stuff but hasn't put it all together, despite being with the Rays (a good pitching team). Don't get me wrong; I like Shane Baz! But this is considered an excellent return by the baseball community. 

[Bertz]

I'm not aware of any of the O's guys making a Top 100.  Given the non-linear way prospects are valued that entire package probably isn't worth much more than a single one of Alcantara/Caissie/Mo.

It's very much quantity over quality.  

[thawv]

48 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Fangraphs isn't a great prospect resource right now. They aren't dumb, but they are slow to update - I try not to use FG unless they're an outlier (for example, Logenhagen was the high-man on the pitcher that went for Shane Bieber at the deadline - but that's also around when FG updates things). As well, the Orioles have a super-deep system and guys like Bassalo are still on the list, even though they're MLB players now (he just still has "prospect" status due to a lack of PA).

Instead of using FG's prospect rankings, use this article, also written by Logenhagen. 

This is a significant return for Baz. Caden Bodine had first-round-hype and fell because of signability more than talent, Slater de Brun got the highest bonus of any non-first round pick in the same draft. And there's a Comp-A pick.

The Rays just essentially got three first round picks + two other prospects for a pitcher who has some cool under the hood stuff but hasn't put it all together, despite being with the Rays (a good pitching team). Don't get me wrong; I like Shane Baz! But this is considered an excellent return by the baseball community. 

I agree that they are slow to update.  I considered that but since nobody has updated anything past their end of year prospects, I felt good about their rankings.  They are usually the last ones on to update.  Thanks for the tip, as I will look at that for certain. 

[thawv]

2 minutes ago, Bertz said:

I'm not aware of any of the O's guys making a Top 100.  Given the non-linear way prospects are valued that entire package probably isn't worth much more than a single one of Alcantara/Caissie/Mo.

It's very much quantity over quality.  

I agree that it's a high volume deal for sure.  I'm still not sold on the total quality for a guy like Baz.  I'm sure I'll get criticized for this, but I think the Orioles won this trade easily.  

[Rcal10]

5 minutes ago, thawv said:

I agree that it's a high volume deal for sure.  I'm still not sold on the total quality for a guy like Baz.  I'm sure I'll get criticized for this, but I think the Orioles won this trade easily.  

I won’t criticize you for your opinion, but what do you know about any of the Rays prospects to even make a statement like that? That is where I feel you are wrong. How can you make that assessment considering, I would assume, until the deal was made yiu had no knowledge of any of the Rays prospects? In the end yiu might be right. None of those prospects may ever develop. But to say so positively that the O’s won the trade easily now is setting yourself up for criticism. 

[thawv]

3 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I won’t criticize you for your opinion, but what do you know about any of the Rays prospects to even make a statement like that? That is where I feel you are wrong. How can you make that assessment considering, I would assume, until the deal was made yiu had no knowledge of any of the Rays prospects? In the end yiu might be right. None of those prospects may ever develop. But to say so positively that the O’s won the trade easily now is setting yourself up for criticism. 

I only know what I read from the "experts."  Just from what I'v read, and looking at tool grades, none of these guys are projected to be anything close to what Baz is today and moving forward.  Projections and grades change, but today, I would much rather be on the Orioles end of this trade. 

[Outshined_One]

I mean, the Rays' haul was nice and everything, but they didn't get a Top 100 guy for Baz and instead got a bunch of upside players who might never see the majors (although Forret sounds close).

If Gore won't cost us Caissie or Ballesteros, and instead would involve a package of guys like, say, Kepley and Reid, pull the trigger.

[KCCub]

I would have absolutely kicked the tires here pre Austin. 

[Bertz]

If he signs with the Sox that's a really bad sign for how the league view him. 

 

[Bertz]

Holy horsefeathers lol

 

[Jason Ross]

Just now, Bertz said:

Holy horsefeathers lol

 

[Hortonhearsawho]

That deals seems pretty low. What were people projecting him to get?

[Jason Ross]

2 minutes ago, Hortonhearsawho said:

That deals seems pretty low. What were people projecting him to get?

4-5 years around the same AAV. 

[Bertz]

1 minute ago, Hortonhearsawho said:

That deals seems pretty low. What were people projecting him to get?

MLB Trade Rumors said 8/180.  And that's not to clown on them they're great and I don't think I saw any projection under $100M.

[Tryptamine]

Seems like the rest of the league saw him as I did, a nearly unplayable bat without some major changes. 

[Hortonhearsawho]

19 minutes ago, Bertz said:

MLB Trade Rumors said 8/180.  And that's not to clown on them they're great and I don't think I saw any projection under $100M.

Yikes. 

[Tryptamine]

I mean he was awful in Japan against 94+, that's all he's going to see in the big leagues

 

[mk49]

If I remember correctly, his BA for 93+mph fastball was .095 last year + his K% was really high.  I also heard he's a really bad defender, and most likely, he'll be a DH.  For 2yr, $34m, that's cheap and short enough to gamble.

He could either take that kind of contract, or go back to Japan.  

I wonder how Okamoto's contract will be.  He's supposed to hit fastballs way better, much lower K rate, but less power than Murakami.  Also, a better defender.  So, Okamoto is a safer bet.  Maybe, 3yr, $15m AAV?

[cl smooth]

37 minutes ago, mk49 said:

If I remember correctly, his BA for 93+mph fastball was .095 last year + his K% was really high.  I also heard he's a really bad defender, and most likely, he'll be a DH.  For 2yr, $34m, that's cheap and short enough to gamble.

He could either take that kind of contract, or go back to Japan.  

I wonder how Okamoto's contract will be.  He's supposed to hit fastballs way better, much lower K rate, but less power than Murakami.  Also, a better defender.  So, Okamoto is a safer bet.  Maybe, 3yr, $15m AAV?

Did he really hit .095 against anything faster than 93 mph? Can you share a link? That is INSANE!

Edited December 21, 2025 by cl smooth

[mk49]

2 minutes ago, cl smooth said:

Did he really hit .095 against anything faster than 93 mph? Can you share a link? That is INSANE!

I remembered correctly.  I just searched "munetaka murakami 93 mph batting average".  And, found many sources said .095.

[Rcal10]

15 minutes ago, mk49 said:

I remembered correctly.  I just searched "munetaka murakami 93 mph batting average".  And, found many sources said .095.

Maybe a stupid question, but how is that measured? If he takes a strike on a ball at 95 mph is he 0-1 against that speed. How about a swing and a miss or a foul ball? Or do they only determine his average on the final pitch of the AB? Or with 2 strikes? 

[mk49]

1 minute ago, Rcal10 said:

Maybe a stupid question, but how is that measured? If he takes a strike on a ball at 95 mph is he 0-1 against that speed. How about a swing and a miss or a foul ball? Or do they only determine his average on the final pitch of the AB? Or with 2 strikes? 

Maybe, it's not a stupid question (actually, a good question, I think), or I'm simply stupid, because I don't know exactly how they got the number. 

[Rcal10]

8 minutes ago, mk49 said:

Maybe, it's not a stupid question (actually, a good question, I think), or I'm simply stupid, because I don't know exactly how they got the number. 

Honestly I have wondered this a long time. Even when someone says a player is good against fastballs. Heard it a lot with Swanson. But how is that measured? I get being able to tell someone’s EV on stipulate pitches. Or their rate of contract. That is also easy. But how do they come up with an actual BA? 

[Cuzi]

Determined only with a pitch that ends an AB.

Throw a 95 MPH fastball down the pipe with 2 strikes and you'll beat him 9 times out of 10.

You hope that after seeing that kind of velocity on a routine basis that he will get better at winning that battle, but given the size of his deal and the team that signed him there isn't much optimism that he will.

Edited December 21, 2025 by Cuzi

[mk49]

8 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Honestly I have wondered this a long time. Even when someone says a player is good against fastballs. Heard it a lot with Swanson. But how is that measured? I get being able to tell someone’s EV on stipulate pitches. Or their rate of contract. That is also easy. But how do they come up with an actual BA? 

As I said, I don't know how they get the number, but my guess is only the last pitch counts.