Winter Meetings Thread

[Geographyhater8888]

1 hour ago, Cuzi said:

King has apparently eliminated the Cubs and named the Orioles, Red Sox, and Yankees as his finalists.

It's pretty much Imai or bust at this point.

With the lack of interest in signing a S tier player like Tucker, this is shaping up to be a dud of an offseason. It's going to be funny how quickly that gameplan of "waiting out the desperate market" til prices decrease turns into a desperate dash to the finish for the Cubs on the trade market.

No need for King and possibly Imai. The goal here is 83-88 wins whether the payroll is $240 million or $180 or even $40 million. With cheap young talent like PCA/Shaw/Horton/Busch they can slash payroll now that they project to win their desired amount of games without help and cost of free agents like bellinger, stroman or even King for that matter. 

Edited December 16, 2025 by Geographyhater8888

[Geographyhater8888]

13 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

You’re leaving out they won 97 games the following year with a very good team. Soriano was fine. 

An 18.4 fWAR in 6.5 seasons is about what you’d expect from a 31 YO player with his skillset. 

Edited December 16, 2025 by Geographyhater8888

[Geographyhater8888]

11 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

I actually agree with you that he doesn’t want long term deals that take guys to later 30’s. I just don’t think what the Cubs did with Soriano has anything to do with it. I also don’t think they think twice about Heyward either. I just think Jed is very cautious and doesn’t ba e the stomach for having a guy at the end of his career on a bad deal. 

Theo also signed Lester to $155 million contract, worth ever $ and Darvish to 6/$126 who finished second in cy young voting. It’s irrelevant. Jed is either a chicken sh!t and or executing Toms vision of capping the payroll at whatever amount projects to 85-88 wins and not a penny more. 
 

“Sustained winning” on a budget means avoiding long term contracts where you’ll have diminishing returns of players in their mid 30’s, cutting into their payroll flexibility in 2032. Something else? I don’t have the sense that putting all their chips into a 5 year championship window will happen under Jed.

Edited December 16, 2025 by Geographyhater8888

[Geographyhater8888]

2 hours ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

 

 

Edited December 16, 2025 by Geographyhater8888

[thawv]

19 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

It matters some if he is a starter. But even as just a pen arm, if no one thinks he can start, he gets more than 2/$12M.. 

I think you're right and he stays a pen guy.  He was awful as a reliever in 23 and 24.  Are they going to use his one great year of his career, or use his whole career, which has been pretty bad?  You seem to be convinced that they will be using his one great season.  You may be right about that.  We'll see soon enough what they are going to be going by. 

[thawv]

14 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

ESPN has Keller listed as the 36 ranked FA,  ahead of Pagan, Finnegan and Maton. All who have signed bigger deals that 2/$12. They estimate Keller at 2/$22. I think that is much closer to reality. 
MLB has him ranked 26th, ahead of Rogers, Finnegan, Fairbanks, Maton & Helsly. Many who have signed for more than 2/$12 already. MLB has him at 3/$36M. 
So there you go. 2 other sources showing a much higher value. Do you really want to stick to your sources of info? 

Thanks for showing me this information.  I was unaware of any other rankings and predictions.  Good to know. 

[thawv]

11 hours ago, Bertz said:

So tragic what apparently happened to Brown and Wicks

The Cubs scouting, drafting, and developing is what happened. 

[Jason Ross]

25 minutes ago, thawv said:

The Cubs scouting, drafting, and developing is what happened. 

This is a silly comment. If it's the Cubs "scouting,. drafting and development" explain Cade Horton - a player I know fans were pissy about at the time? A player they scouted back in the Covid-year out of HS, a player they drafted a few years later, and a player they have done significant work on in development. If it's the Cubs development scouting, explain Brad Keller, Drew Pomeranz, Caleb Thielbar, Daniel Palenica, and Colin Rea last year? 

Let's not be ridiculous. Jordan Wicks has dealt with injuries two years running and that's neither on the scouting, development or drafting departments. As well, while I think Ben Brown isn't as good as his xFIP suggests, I also don't think he's as bad as his ERA suggests.

There are still plenty of MLB outcomes of both a healthy Jordan WIcks and Ben Brown moving forward. I cannot predict if it will happen, but even if it doesn't, it wasn't because of the Cubs "scouting, drafting and development" it'll almost assuredly be more because "most prospects fail at some point". 

[Bertz]

22 minutes ago, thawv said:

The Cubs scouting, drafting, and developing is what happened. 

You say this like it's a zinger but they're actually quite good at all those things

[thawv]

27 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

This is a silly comment. If it's the Cubs "scouting,. drafting and development" explain Cade Horton - a player I know fans were pissy about at the time? A player they scouted back in the Covid-year out of HS, a player they drafted a few years later, and a player they have done significant work on in development. If it's the Cubs development scouting, explain Brad Keller, Drew Pomeranz, Caleb Thielbar, Daniel Palenica, and Colin Rea last year? 

Let's not be ridiculous. Jordan Wicks has dealt with injuries two years running and that's neither on the scouting, development or drafting departments. As well, while I think Ben Brown isn't as good as his xFIP suggests, I also don't think he's as bad as his ERA suggests.

There are still plenty of MLB outcomes of both a healthy Jordan WIcks and Ben Brown moving forward. I cannot predict if it will happen, but even if it doesn't, it wasn't because of the Cubs "scouting, drafting and development" it'll almost assuredly be more because "most prospects fail at some point". 

They are not going to be o-fer in developing young players.  I just don't cheer on the front office as much as many do.  And we're talking about developing YOUNG players here.  At least I am.  Not tweeking a veteran, which they do very well.  Palencia is another guy they did well with.  

[thawv]

38 minutes ago, Bertz said:

You say this like it's a zinger but they're actually quite good at all those things

Ok

[Jason Ross]

1 hour ago, thawv said:

They are not going to be o-fer in developing young players.  I just don't cheer on the front office as much as many do.  And we're talking about developing YOUNG players here.  At least I am.  Not tweeking a veteran, which they do very well.  Palencia is another guy they did well with.  

Can you please explain to me what you believe the difference between what the Cubs did with Colin Rea (which was lower his arm slot drastically and change his pitch mix) to what the Cubs would do with, say, a young pitcher like Cade Horton is? You seem to want to create lines of distinction here, but other than "one person is older" I don't actually find that a useful line of distinction. Development is development in my book.

There was also development on the farm this year from Jaxon Wiggins and Ryan Gallagher. It's true, the Cubs traded Ryan Gallagher, but that doesn't negate the development. If you would like to point out the lack of pitching in the Cubs minor league system, I don't think this is a developmental issue, but one exacerbated by trades (Jackson Ferris, Ryan Gallagher), promotions (Cade Horton) and an importance put on the draft on offensive players far more than anything. The Cubs will see a greater influence by Tyler Zomrbo, now earmarked as head of pitching development organizationally moving forward as well.

Ultimately, your comment feels like an incredibly poor "gotch'a" comment that doesn't jibe with the reality of the Cubs' organization. It's a comment rooted in what feels like 2018, not the currently Cubs' pitching infrastructure of 2025 heading into 2026. 

And to be clear this is not me cheering on the front office but pointing out the realities of what the Cubs do well. I've got gripes with how the budget is set by ownership, how Hoyer has a lack of a killer instinct to go get a guy, and others, but that doesn't mean it bleeds over to how the Cubs are currently handling pitching, which they are doing a good job with.

[thawv]

45 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Can you please explain to me what you believe the difference between what the Cubs did with Colin Rea (which was lower his arm slot drastically and change his pitch mix) to what the Cubs would do with, say, a young pitcher like Cade Horton is? You seem to want to create lines of distinction here, but other than "one person is older" I don't actually find that a useful line of distinction. Development is development in my book.

There was also development on the farm this year from Jaxon Wiggins and Ryan Gallagher. It's true, the Cubs traded Ryan Gallagher, but that doesn't negate the development. If you would like to point out the lack of pitching in the Cubs minor league system, I don't think this is a developmental issue, but one exacerbated by trades (Jackson Ferris, Ryan Gallagher), promotions (Cade Horton) and an importance put on the draft on offensive players far more than anything. The Cubs will see a greater influence by Tyler Zomrbo, now earmarked as head of pitching development organizationally moving forward as well.

Ultimately, your comment feels like an incredibly poor "gotch'a" comment that doesn't jibe with the reality of the Cubs' organization. It's a comment rooted in what feels like 2018, not the currently Cubs' pitching infrastructure of 2025 heading into 2026. 

And to be clear this is not me cheering on the front office but pointing out the realities of what the Cubs do well. I've got gripes with how the budget is set by ownership, how Hoyer has a lack of a killer instinct to go get a guy, and others, but that doesn't mean it bleeds over to how the Cubs are currently handling pitching, which they are doing a good job with.

I'm never going to be able on keep up with your knowledge so I'm not going to respond. 

[Guest]

24 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Can you please explain to me what you believe the difference between what the Cubs did with Colin Rea (which was lower his arm slot drastically and change his pitch mix) to what the Cubs would do with, say, a young pitcher like Cade Horton is? You seem to want to create lines of distinction here, but other than "one person is older" I don't actually find that a useful line of distinction. Development is development in my book.

I mostly disagree with this analysis at a purely economic/substantive level, which I believe is a good root for a decent and interesting debate between us! It pulls at the root of the Cubs' management, which I believe is pretty erratic but also efficient... too efficient... in trying to conserve money and enact fiscal policies which are designed to wait instead of to act.

What the other user is attempting to say is that the Cubs tweak older players well and may fail to do so with younger players. I'd argue that Cade Horton's pitching will be barely improved by the Cubs' management. Why? Tyler Zombro. He's pretty much unwelcome at this point, and I don't believe that he will diversify the pitcher portfolios--to be clear, he's super young and he doesn't have much MLB experience; he's an Econ grad but hasn't had any experience managing assets. His economic theories and philosophies are squarely theoretical, and he seems like he will only be the agent of management in his erratic idea of "marginal revenue/marginal cost" theory of minimizing strikeouts/maximizing contact. To be fair, IFFB is a very fair measure in microscopic levels, but it can't be determined, no matter how much it is pushed, in a fairly sustainable way--which creates an average of a horizontal line at a given y-value. Square stagnancy...

38 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

There was also development on the farm this year from Jaxon Wiggins and Ryan Gallagher. It's true, the Cubs traded Ryan Gallagher, but that doesn't negate the development. If you would like to point out the lack of pitching in the Cubs minor league system, I don't think this is a developmental issue, but one exacerbated by trades (Jackson Ferris, Ryan Gallagher), promotions (Cade Horton) and an importance put on the draft on offensive players far more than anything. The Cubs will see a greater influence by Tyler Zomrbo, now earmarked as head of pitching development organizationally moving forward as well.

Ultimately, your comment feels like an incredibly poor "gotch'a" comment that doesn't jibe with the reality of the Cubs' organization. It's a comment rooted in what feels like 2018, not the currently Cubs' pitching infrastructure of 2025 heading into 2026. 

This is what I agree with and what the other user doesn't seem to understand--there has been develpoment which cannot be empirically negated (development meaning increasing robustness; thanks, philosophy forums, for giving me this habit). I would argue that the Cubs minor league system is efficient in terms of increasing robustness in the pitchers, but that's a different debate for another day. But I do acknowledge that trades like Ferris' and Gallagher's continue to exacerbate the sore hole in the pitching system.

That being said, I don't agree with the "slippery slope" fallacy that this argument exhibits. The argument goes from the Cubs are having development--the Cubs are losing development due to trades, which are not due to development--I think Tyler Zombro will improve this. If anything, this simplistic argument is conditional on the fact that Zombro emphasizes velocity more than contact and other advanced pitching metrics which amount to nothing in the aggregate level (due to their instability). And Zombro, no matter how powerful his position, cannot make the final decision on trades. He can influence what he wants, but it could be a similar cycle of peak-trough pitching until stabilizers like Imai enter and diversify the team in terms of repertoire.

The bold comment (the one about the "gotcha") is more of an ad hominem attack rather than an acknowledgement of a different idea or viewpoint. Logically, ad homniem attacks contribute to a reduction in the logical quality of the argument, rather than their enhancement. 

45 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

And to be clear this is not me cheering on the front office but pointing out the realities of what the Cubs do well. I've got gripes with how the budget is set by ownership, how Hoyer has a lack of a killer instinct to go get a guy, and others, but that doesn't mean it bleeds over to how the Cubs are currently handling pitching, which they are doing a good job with.

I appreciate your comment here, but I do think that this is implicitly supporting the Cubs' organization structure and Hoyer. Realistically, this administration (and I'm calling it such for the fun of it) mismanages its money and is obsessed over it to the point where they cannot make a trade that involves a substantive amount of money. In terms of pitching, we're getting pitchers who, in my opinion, are only other bodies. The most important person, Imai, who has a VERY diverse repertoire, is not being acted upon for some odd reason--perhaps because he challenges the notion of no contact that Zombro is attempting to institutionalize?

...

To be clear, I do appreciate the time you take in making these comments; they give me my own little mental exercise, especially when it's been only a year since I've gotten back into baseball. Thank you for reading this behemoth.

[Derwood]

5 hours ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

Theo also signed Lester to $155 million contract, worth ever $

Not only did they sign him, but they did so a year earlier than their "window opening". Theo wasn't beholden to this "we can't sign anyone until the team is "ready"" thing

[Jason Ross]

1 minute ago, thawv said:

I'm never going to be able on keep up with your knowledge so I'm not going to respond. 

I'm not trying to flex on you, I really just want to know why we don't consider what the Cubs did with veteran players last year, like Colin Rea, Brad Keller, Drew Pomeranz, and even mid-season trade players like Andrew Kittredge as the same as what they do with Cade Horton, and Daniel Palencia. I think they're birds of the same feather - getting the most out of a pitcher is getting the most out of them whether they've pitched MLB baseball for seven years or they're 22-years-old. It requires an organizational understanding of pitch movements, seam-shift wake...so many factors. 

I just think we have to move beyond the 2018-view of the Cubs and pitching where they used to be and where they are today. The failings (thus far) of Jordan Wicks and Ben Brown to grab ahold of a permanent MLB spot doesn't really lie in an organization that fails in drafting, scouting or development. It lies in lots of factors, but I don't think there's much proof right now that the Cubs organization is at fault for it.

[chibears55]

11 hours ago, Stratos said:

I didn't like the Soriano deal at the time.

Harder to evaluate fielding value back then.  FG and Baseball reference vary wildly on his WAR with the Cubs.  That's was a lot of money at the time to pay a 115-120 wRC+ hitter who they stuck in LF and largely stopped stealing bags.  If he were a decent fielding 2B for us that would be a bit different.  It wasn't a Heyward bust by any means though.

Regarding Heyward, i'm thinking that if I made a 184 million dollar bet and lost and I had to be reminded of it every day for the next 8 years I'd probably lose a lot of sleep and get gun-shy on another huge bet too.  They did sign Swanson though.

I didn't care about the money part of things back then, I was just happy to see them add another big bat to go with Lee and Ramirez, brought in Pinella and actually try and win games again.

[Geographyhater8888]

58 minutes ago, Derwood said:

Not only did they sign him, but they did so a year earlier than their "window opening". Theo wasn't beholden to this "we can't sign anyone until the team is "ready"" thing

Unless you count signing Craig Counsel to a record breaking $40 million contract. Jeds big splash. 

Edited December 16, 2025 by Geographyhater8888

[Cuzi]

1 hour ago, Derwood said:

Not only did they sign him, but they did so a year earlier than their "window opening". Theo wasn't beholden to this "we can't sign anyone until the team is "ready"" thing

I'm not even sure Jed goes by "we can't sign anyone until the team is ready."

He signed Dansby Swanson and then crickets. Did he think Dansby Swanson was the missing piece? Because he's not done much since and we're coming up on the half way mark of that contract. And looking ahead to 2027, the future isn't looking too bright.

The only thing he's done is make a win now move to earn a contract extension and then right back to the same old horsefeathers.

Edited December 16, 2025 by Cuzi

[Jason Ross]

Jesse Rogers and other ESPN discussed the shifting landscape of the offensive market in an article here. I think it's probably important from a Cub-centric-perspective for a few reasons:

• Their rumored price on Alex Bregman is not going down (this is Kiley McDaniel's prediction) 
• The pitching market has not out-performed like the offensive-market has right now. Pete Alonso and Kyle Schwarber got more than what most people had them tabbed at, where as Dylan Cease artificially looks like he over-performed his AAV but with deferred money, it's mostly an accounting game. Most of the P market has followed relative expectation

We know the Cubs don't like playing a game where they have their value on players pushed higher. That said, how it affects the trade market (the Cubs have position players to move) could also be affected. 

I'd really like the first actual shoe in the Cubs' offseason to drop; whether it's the hitter or the pitcher because I remain curious as to what the plan is (and no I don't think the plan is to basically punt the offseason or something - they're clearly cooking up some sort of plan whether it's the plan we want or not has to be seen).

[Rcal10]

19 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Jesse Rogers and other ESPN discussed the shifting landscape of the offensive market in an article here. I think it's probably important from a Cub-centric-perspective for a few reasons:

• Their rumored price on Alex Bregman is not going down (this is Kiley McDaniel's prediction) 
• The pitching market has not out-performed like the offensive-market has right now. Pete Alonso and Kyle Schwarber got more than what most people had them tabbed at, where as Dylan Cease artificially looks like he over-performed his AAV but with deferred money, it's mostly an accounting game. Most of the P market has followed relative expectation

We know the Cubs don't like playing a game where they have their value on players pushed higher. That said, how it affects the trade market (the Cubs have position players to move) could also be affected. 

I'd really like the first actual shoe in the Cubs' offseason to drop; whether it's the hitter or the pitcher because I remain curious as to what the plan is (and no I don't think the plan is to basically punt the offseason or something - they're clearly cooking up some sort of plan whether it's the plan we want or not has to be seen).

I am sure they have a plan on top of contingency plans. The issue I have is them actually executing one of them. I am sure their plan is not punt the rest of the off season. But that doesn’t mean that won’t happen. If they want Imai and don’t get him and then go to plan B, a trade for a pitcher that could back fire too. Maybe the pitching trade market hardens. Asks could be too high. They can pivot to the pen and that pride is too high, or all options are gone. I really don’t see them in in Bregman. Doesn’t make sense to me unless they can trade for a controlled pitcher. But as I said, maybe that price is too steep. I am not saying this will happen. I am saying they are playing a dangerous game of musical chairs. The music might stop without them having a chair to sit on. It absolutely could all still work out fine. But there is many ways this off season could turn into a complete bust. 

[Tryptamine]

I'm to the point where I just can't see any way this offseason isn't a disaster without Imai. They can't afford Bregman unless they're going to spend absolutely nothing on the many remaining roster spots. You'd probably be looking at like Gallen and and maybe Fairbanks. 

An offseason of Gallen, Fairbanks, Maton and Milner would be woefully inadequate. 

[Bertz]

42 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Jesse Rogers and other ESPN discussed the shifting landscape of the offensive market in an article here. I think it's probably important from a Cub-centric-perspective for a few reasons:

• Their rumored price on Alex Bregman is not going down (this is Kiley McDaniel's prediction) 
• The pitching market has not out-performed like the offensive-market has right now. Pete Alonso and Kyle Schwarber got more than what most people had them tabbed at, where as Dylan Cease artificially looks like he over-performed his AAV but with deferred money, it's mostly an accounting game. Most of the P market has followed relative expectation

We know the Cubs don't like playing a game where they have their value on players pushed higher. That said, how it affects the trade market (the Cubs have position players to move) could also be affected. 

I'd really like the first actual shoe in the Cubs' offseason to drop; whether it's the hitter or the pitcher because I remain curious as to what the plan is (and no I don't think the plan is to basically punt the offseason or something - they're clearly cooking up some sort of plan whether it's the plan we want or not has to be seen).

I'd be surprised if the team does anything big before Imai signs.  It's pretty clear IMO that either he's their top guy or their top guy (let's say Gore for sake of argument) isn't going to be moved until they have that market clarity from Imai's decision.

Possible exception is the closer.  Sounds like they were in on Williams and Pagan until close to the end, so unless the reason they pulled out was purely timing we can be reasonably confident they're comfortable with a 9 figure reliever salary regardless of what else happens.

[Rcal10]

6 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

I'm to the point where I just can't see any way this offseason isn't a disaster without Imai. They can't afford Bregman unless they're going to spend absolutely nothing on the many remaining roster spots. You'd probably be looking at like Gallen and and maybe Fairbanks. 

An offseason of Gallen, Fairbanks, Maton and Milner would be woefully inadequate. 

I guess they can trade for Cabrera, Gore, Ryan or a few other options to get the starting pitcher. Then maybe sign Okamato and a decent pen arm or rein and it still be a solid off season. But that is threading the needle. 

[squally1313]

The issue with, thus far, missing out on anything of substance on both the rotation and the offense is that you can't then fix the rotation with the spare offensive parts because you don't have as many spares. I'm less worried about filling a top slot in the rotation if I have Caissie and Ballesteros sitting around with no defined role on the 2026 Cubs. When they both have key roles, you're basically creating new problems with any major trade. 

Go do something.