Winter Meetings Thread

[Jason Ross]

1 hour ago, thawv said:

I agree with this.  They barrel up balls against him.  He gets hit hard.  He walks too many guys.  He's more of a flyball pitcher.  He's fine if we already had him, but it looks like most of his value comes from being cheap and having 2 years control.  

Kyle Finnegan is a good example of what people need to start looking at when people are talking about MaKenzie Gore. Sure, he's an RP, but the reason we look at him is to realize what happens when teams with modern pitching infrastructures get pitchers from teams who don't have this setup. The Tigers took Finnegan from a decently good RP who gave up way too many HRs because he threw his fastball (his not so good fastball) 70% of the time into, over a small 2 months sample size, one of the better relievers in baseball because they switched him into throwing 60% splitters, his best pitch. Washington couldn't figure out this simple switch.

This is not a one-off, either as the organization routinely has proven an inability to harness and develop young players and pitchers as a whole. They have been incredibly outdated.

Gore has a lot of underlying data that suggests he needs modern pitching infrastructure. He is someone who probably needs more of the Cade Horton treatment where seam shifted wake is employed; his pitches don't create the deception or separation they need. But he gets some good underlying results. A good organization gets Gore and he likely flourishes. Washington just can't make the improvements. The Cubs have turned into a very modern pitching organization with the help of Tommy Hottovy, and especially last year, Tyler Zombro (who is taking an even bigger role this year) and Tread Athletics. 

None of this is a knock on Gore, either. Just about every pitcher needs a good organization behind them now a days to be successful and stay ahead of the curve. 

[Cuzi]

You can praise all the underlying data you want when it comes to Gore. I'm not going to get erect talking about his extension, movement on pitches, <insert shiny talking point here>, when the end result of it all is a pitch that ended up a ball because his secondary pitches don't make it in the strike zone.

The guy averages just over 5 innings a game because he will not or cannot attack the strike zone. MacKenzie Gore has made it to the 7th inning 11 times in his entire career. I don't want to rely on my bullpen nearly as much as my "ace" starting pitcher.

Ideally, I want 2 pitchers better than Gore in my rotation. I'm not paying a kings ransom to get 2 years of a pitcher I immediately have to develop and hope to get more out of him in a short amount of time to make it worth it that I'm going to slot in as my #3.

I'm not even entertaining a trade for a guy like Gore unless I swing and miss on pretty much every top pitcher available in FA and then I'm still like 99% sure I'm walking away from a Gore trade when I hear the asking price.

Edited December 10, 2025 by Cuzi

[Jason Ross]

48 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

You can praise all the underlying data you want when it comes to Gore. I'm not going to get erect talking about his extension, movement on pitches, <insert shiny talking point here>, when the end result of it all is a pitch that ended up a ball because his secondary pitches don't make it in the strike zone.

The guy averages just over 5 innings a game because he will not or cannot attack the strike zone. MacKenzie Gore has made it to the 7th inning 13 times in his entire career. I don't want to rely on my bullpen nearly as much as my "ace" starting pitcher.

Ideally, I want 2 pitchers better than Gore in my rotation. I'm not paying a kings ransom to get 2 years of a pitcher I immediately have to develop and hope to get more out of him in a short amount of time to make it worth it that I'm going to slot in as my #3.

I'm not even entertaining a trade for a guy like Gore unless I swing and miss on pretty much every top pitcher available in FA and then I'm still like 99% sure I'm walking away from a Gore trade when I hear the asking price.

I'm not entirely certain what you mean by "attack the zone", so I'll address his entire strike throwing profile: he throws a little under 2% less first-pitch strikes than league average and is in the zone over 5% of league average, so I don't think there is anything in his data that suggest he doesn't "attack" the zone. In fact, he gets a good deal of chase (70th percentile) - you could make an argument he needs to be less in the zone. 

Again, as I suggested in my post, the issue is that his pitches do not create the level of deception that they need to. His zone contact% is much higher than league average (almost 10%). This is odd because of how much whiff and chase he gets. So what gives? We can see, what I believe is the issue below, it's his actual spin versus his perceived spin chart and his fastball and curveball locations:

As well as this:

His fastball and his curveball are pitches you can kind of...sit on right now based on the shape and the location; the actual spin and the perceived spin do not differentiate themselves and he throws his fastball up high and his curveball down low. He's not creating any deception. The one pitch he creates deception with his his slider (in yellow). Notice how much more of the dial it catches. and how the actual spin is different from the perceived. It had the lowest wOBA and the highest whiff% of any pitch of his. 

He needs a modern organization because these pitches need seam-shifted wake, they need to create more deception in the zone, and he probably needs to work his changeup in against RHH more (it graded out pretty well last year). I'd also like to see him figure out the cutter more. Good thing for Gore if he ended up here; the Cubs specialize in the cut-ride fastball. This is a pitch that would also filter in against RHH. He's barely using it right now; maybe he just doesn't have the feel for it, but I also don't trust Washington to teach any pitcher anything of substance right now, so I'm not entire sure. 

Look at where he pitches RHH. It's pretty easy to sit on it. Compare that to how he attacks LHH:

The vision on Gore is not what was, but what could be in a modern organization that can take what I think are his actual issues (deception in zone) and create more of a decision point for hitters. Right now he's just too predictable for a RHH. His curveball kills hitters out of the zone, he gets a good amount of whiff in general. 

Should the Cubs trade for him? I'm not going to stump for the guy or against him - I'll defer to the Cubs pitching infrastructure for that. If they feel like the above is something they have a very defined plan for him, then go get the guy. That said, again, the thing about MaKenzie Gore is not what was with the Nationals, it's what to come with a team who you can actually trust to workshop a pitcher properly. 

 

[Rcal10]

8 hours ago, mk49 said:

To me, the option 3 is the best, followed by the option 2.  

I would say

Option 1: I think Robert Suarez will be too expensive for the Cubs.  I like him more than Fairbanks.  Most likely, he's looking for a 3yr deal with $16 ~ 20 million AAV.  The Cubs won't do that.

Option 2: This is a cool option, because we don't give up young guys.  I still think Ben Brown could be a more than decent reliever.  I don't think Okamoto, though better than Murakami, will be a good defensively.

Option 3: It's cool to add Bregman to the roster without giving up Shaw.  I will miss both Owen and Ben, but if we could get Ryan, that would be smashing great.  I really don't care about Gore and Cabrera, though.

Regarding option 1, the Cubs did offer Scott a 4 year deal around that money last year so I don’t rule out offering Suarez an annual around $16. King for $20M annual, Suarez for $16M then the bat for $8M. That puts them around the number they are said to be spending. 

[Bertz]

I can't imagine in 2025 thinking pitchers, especially those in their mid 20's, are a cast die.

[Cuzi]

43 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

I'm not entirely certain what you mean by "attack the zone", so I'll address his entire strike throwing profile

It's pretty simple, really. Outside of his slider, which he exclusively uses against lefties, his best secondary pitch lands in the strike zone just 40% of the time. He nibbles.

You can pretty much take your pick of top pitchers in the game and look at how often their secondary pitches are thrown for a strike and walk away with their least controlled pitch landing in the zone as much as Gores best controlled pitch.

If you are comparing Gore to league average, you are lowering the bar. We are talking about him as a TOR pitcher that's going to require a TOR trade package to acquire. Pass.

Edited December 10, 2025 by Cuzi

[Jason Ross]

33 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

It's pretty simple, really. Outside of his slider, which he exclusively uses against lefties, his best secondary pitch lands in the strike zone just 40% of the time. He nibbles.

You can pretty much take your pick of top pitchers in the game and look at how often their secondary pitches are thrown for a strike and walk away with their least controlled pitch landing in the zone as much as Gores best controlled pitch.

If you are comparing Gore to league average, you are lowering the bar. We are talking about him as a TOR pitcher that's going to require a TOR trade package to acquire. Pass.

Okay, so first thing I realized I sorted the data wrong: when I was on Gore's page I was using his statcast zone% (as this is the default view) and on FG league% I used the general zone% and not statcast (this is the general view) - so I'll admit here, Gore is a bit below average in this! Whoops; there's lots of pitch tracking. I don't know why it doesn't just default to the same thing, but alas, I missed that. 

Beyond that however, the idea that zone% is somehow an "ace" thing doesn't bare fruit. Miles Mikolas, Jake Irvin, Dustin May and Randy Vazquez all populate the top-10. Freddy Peralta, Dylan Cease, Hunter Brown and Carlos Rodon all populate the bottom 10. 

Gore doesn't throw a ton of strikes but generates a good deal of chase - 14th in this rate for anyone with 150 IP. If you want to mitigate that, this is exactly how you do that. But considering how often he's hit in the zone the idea of just "throw more strikes" right now isn't a wonderful plan. As shown above, his pitches don't have deception and he's too centered-mass with his strikes. Throwing more strikes probably doesn't result in a simple "Profit!" situation. You need the organization to get him there. And again, throwing more strikes is not simply an ace thing. Lots of good pitchers throw less strikes than Gore and have been good for years. There are many different ways to skin a cat.

 

[Cuzi]

It doesn't give me a lot of warm and fuzzies to hear Gore doesn't have good enough stuff to attack the strike zone.

Another issue he has is that he is notorious for tanking in the second half of the season and his workload is not that crazy in a year. It's like he doesn't have the stamina to be a full time starter.

[Tryptamine]

Losing Finnegan on such a reasonable contract really sucks. 

[Jason Ross]

Just now, Cuzi said:

It doesn't give me a lot of warm and fuzzies to hear Gore doesn't have good enough stuff to attack the strike zone.

Another issue he has is that he is notorious for tanking in the second half of the season and his workload is not that crazy in a year. It's like he doesn't have the stamina to be a full time starter.

I don't think it's a "good enough stuff" issue but an  "optimized stuff" one - the year before he was a 104 Stuff+_ guy - the stuff isn't really an issue. Again, this is where modern pitching infrastructures are important. This is an organization who couldn't figure out for years (all the while very intelligent folks on the internet screamed this) that maybe Kyle Finnegan should throw his best pitch more and his fastball less. It's probably fair, then, to assume that an organization who couldn't even figure out a simple pitch-mix issue, probably isn't on top of the finer concepts of seam shifted wake and creating an optimized pitch mix in general. Gore is screaming for a changeup that offsets RHH and he started to throw one last year but it's a bit of a mess right now on location, 

One thing he did last year was lower his arm angle but it leaked upwards - go figure, right around when he fell off. A lowered arm angle is going to really help that cut-action on the fastball. I'd like to see him keep that, myself. That should help the slider. I'd also advocate a team who's capable in teaching changeups.

If the Cubs did trade for Gore, I think they're in a strong position to work on the cut-fastball, the seam shifted wake and the changeup. These are all aspects they worked hard on with Cade Horton throughout the year. They successfully lowered the arm angle of Colin Rea and really upped his strike%. And Jamoson Taillon worked well with the new changeup. 

Gore is not a finished product today. But I think the clay is there for a smart organization to make Gore into one,

 

[Cuzi]

8 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Gore is not a finished product today. But I think the clay is there for a smart organization to make Gore into one,

I think a smart organization waits another 2 years to take that leap and just signs a Michael King if they want an upside project for 2026.

[Jason Ross]

14 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

I think a smart organization waits another 2 years to take that leap and just signs a Michael King if they want an upside project for 2026.

That may be true. As I said, I'm not stumping for Gore or against Gore. What I am doing is showing what I think the pathway forward for Gore is and why a team would be interested. in Gore. 

Frankly, the Cubs have developed pitching well enough over the last few years, and especially last year, that I'll defer to their thinking. I have issues with how the Cubs operate, I have issues with how Jed operates, but I'm also confident that the man is a human-value calculator and rarely is off there. I think he needs to be a little less of a human-value-calculator and a little more impulsive at times, but it also leads the Cubs to rarely be pantsed on a trade or a FA. So I'm kind of "whatever" when it comes to getting their favorite target for a FA. 

My preference is personally Tatsuya Imai. But again, I'll probably defer to the powers that be with their current track record. If they punt on getting a good FA pitcher, I'll certainly have issues, but if they come away with a perceived pitcher that could be good enough to be an impact arm, I'll likely be fine with their choice,

[squally1313]

25 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

But again, I'll probably defer to the powers that be with their current track record. If they punt on getting a good FA pitcher, I'll certainly have issues, but if they come away with a perceived pitcher that could be good enough to be an impact arm, I'll likely be fine with their choice,

so where does the money go in this case?

[chibears55]

Listening to Hoyer and Counsell response when asked about the position players, sure sounds like theyre just gonna stick to who they have at all positions. 

I guess it wouldn't really be shocking if they just went with Amaya, Busch, Hoerner, Swanson, Shaw, Happ, PCA, Caissie, and Suzuki.

Kelly, Ballesteros, Kingery or Long and add a LH utility bat

 

Feels like pitching is their main focus, especially the bullpen 

[chibears55]

2 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

so where does the money go in this case?

Theyll overpay someone 

Edited December 10, 2025 by chibears55

[Jason Ross]

3 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

so where does the money go in this case?

I think in that case, Alex Bregman. I have a lot of reservations on Bregman - but the Cubs, seemingly, don't. I also don't think they will punt on SP. I think it's either a trade and Bregman or a FA heavy class.

[mul21]

41 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

I think a smart organization waits another 2 years to take that leap and just signs a Michael King if they want an upside project for 2026.

A smart organization get's him now with less wear and tear on his arm.  Your whole premise is based on Gore not being able to change how he pitches with better data and coaching.  Did you not watch cade Horton develop before your very eyes even after he got to MLB last year?  Sure, he throws more strikes, but when you have a smart coaching staff who can leverage what a player does best the results are going to improve.  Seeing what he's done to the Cubs the last 2 times he's faced them (14 IP, 16K, 1ER) you have to think the guy has some pretty big upside.

[Cuzi]

12 minutes ago, mul21 said:

A smart organization get's him now with less wear and tear on his arm.

Not when the asking price begins with Matt Shaw.

[squally1313]

11 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

I think in that case, Alex Bregman. I have a lot of reservations on Bregman - but the Cubs, seemingly, don't. I also don't think they will punt on SP. I think it's either a trade and Bregman or a FA heavy class.

I hope so. 

I do think they are very good at identifying pitchers that they can work with and level up. And I do agree that the bullpen is generally a crapshoot and in a first luxury tax level reality, throwing elite level money at elite level guys is not the best use of resources. The games in April and May still count, and I'd like Jed to just wince and overpay for support come the summer, but for now, whatever. 

Ultimately I just want the money spent. They've earned the right to attack the middle ground of pitching production. Their ability to level up offensive production isn't quite at the same level to me. I know the offense was great last year, and I know it projects as above average now. Just...make it elite again. 

[Radar3454]

13 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

Listening to Hoyer and Counsell response when asked about the position players, sure sounds like theyre just gonna stick to who they have at all positions. 

I guess it wouldn't really be shocking if they just went with Amaya, Busch, Hoerner, Swanson, Shaw, Happ, PCA, Caissie, and Suzuki.

Kelly, Ballesteros, Kingery or Long and add a LH utility bat

 

Feels like pitching is their main focus, especially the bullpen 

I'm hoping for Imai or King, a solid RP + other cheap options the Cubs see something in, and Refsnyder.

[ILMindState]

16 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

I think in that case, Alex Bregman. I have a lot of reservations on Bregman - but the Cubs, seemingly, don't. I also don't think they will punt on SP. I think it's either a trade and Bregman or a FA heavy class.

So I'm not the only one that doesn't really want Bregman?

[ToolDRT]

2 minutes ago, ILMindState said:

So I'm not the only one that doesn't really want Bregman?

I’m riding this train as well. 

[Cuzi]

7 minutes ago, ILMindState said:

So I'm not the only one that doesn't really want Bregman?

I dont want Bregman because you know damn well the Cubs are going to jack up the annual to lower the term.

Then you have Jesse Rogers over there saying that the market for Kyle Tucker is 250-300M. I dont believe that for a second, but if that is the case and the Cubs sit out on that for a 32 year old 3B that's a lesser player but getting paid damn near the same amount of the budget, then this organization can piss right off.

Edited December 10, 2025 by Cuzi

[chibears55]

3 minutes ago, ILMindState said:

So I'm not the only one that doesn't really want Bregman?

Im not pushing for him either, especially if he looking for 5+ years at 30+ per.

I think at age 32, and the leg injury history, i don't want to see them risk that kind of commitment on him

[Jason Ross]

6 minutes ago, ILMindState said:

So I'm not the only one that doesn't really want Bregman?

I have reservations on how his bat ages. He's someone who couples mediocre bat-speed with a very pull-heavy approach. His pull-ability helps to mask the bat-speed and keeps his ISO pretty solid. But he's entering the ages in which we see bat-speed slow down (it's around the age of 32 where we see definitive bleed and 35 is looking like more of a cliff). So how long does the bat speed stay above water? I think the approach will maintain, but I do wonder how quickly does he drop to say, a 105-110 wRC+ hitter? He's a positive defender as a +3 OAA but was a neutral DRS defender, so we're seeing bleed here too. 

The Cubs may have a way to counteract that. The team has generally stayed away from big contracts and yet they've come back to Bregman two years running - I think that says something. They don't gamble much or spend money willy-nilly so something internally is telling them this isn't that bad of an idea.