Dylan Cease sign with Blue Jays

[Jason Ross]

We really don't have any idea where the Cubs sat here. We have some Bruce Levine connections a few weeks ago and a Sharma/Mooney light connection but what the Cubs offered, how interested they are or what they're working on is all pure speculation. 

I wouldn't have minded the Cubs offering the deal Cease signed with Toronto. I wouldn't have minded a little stronger offer, but 7/$210 is probably very close to "market value" as you'll find for him, too. 

We don't have any "we tried" signals coming from Cubs media or Cubs sources. What that means is up to you and your analysis; it could be that they never really tried, that they found better value and pivoted to a different thing, or that they simply misread the Cease market. But I'm not really jumping on the "well the Cubs weren't willing to go above and beyond for Cease" thing...yet. We have heard the Cubs are interested in a higher level of P this year...I don't mind right now if it isn't Cease that they're after. There are a handful of pitchers who I would have in the same general category as Cease. 

[Rcal10]

12 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

We really don't have any idea where the Cubs sat here. We have some Bruce Levine connections a few weeks ago and a Sharma/Mooney light connection but what the Cubs offered, how interested they are or what they're working on is all pure speculation. 

I wouldn't have minded the Cubs offering the deal Cease signed with Toronto. I wouldn't have minded a little stronger offer, but 7/$210 is probably very close to "market value" as you'll find for him, too. 

We don't have any "we tried" signals coming from Cubs media or Cubs sources. What that means is up to you and your analysis; it could be that they never really tried, that they found better value and pivoted to a different thing, or that they simply misread the Cease market. But I'm not really jumping on the "well the Cubs weren't willing to go above and beyond for Cease" thing...yet. We have heard the Cubs are interested in a higher level of P this year...I don't mind right now if it isn't Cease that they're after. There are a handful of pitchers who I would have in the same general category as Cease. 

TBH, I would rather the Cubs put a package together with one of Wicks, Assad or Brown, one of Alcantara or Cassie and then depending on who they are going after add, whatever is needed from the system, who is not a top 8 prospect in the system. Present those names to the Marlins for Cabrera or Alcantara, to the Nationals for Gore or to the Twins for Ryan or Lopez. Then spend more money on the pen and maybe even a better right handed bat who can DH, be a bench bat and play 1st. I think they get more value that way then they do signing Valdez or any other pitcher looking for 5 or more years and $25M or more annually. Of all the pitchers I mentioned, Cabrera would be my preference. He comes with an extra year and is still cheap. They can then ship in the D. Williams, Hensley aisle as well as the Fairbanks, Keller. 

[Tryptamine]

42 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

We really don't have any idea where the Cubs sat here. We have some Bruce Levine connections a few weeks ago and a Sharma/Mooney light connection but what the Cubs offered, how interested they are or what they're working on is all pure speculation. 

I wouldn't have minded the Cubs offering the deal Cease signed with Toronto. I wouldn't have minded a little stronger offer, but 7/$210 is probably very close to "market value" as you'll find for him, too. 

We don't have any "we tried" signals coming from Cubs media or Cubs sources. What that means is up to you and your analysis; it could be that they never really tried, that they found better value and pivoted to a different thing, or that they simply misread the Cease market. But I'm not really jumping on the "well the Cubs weren't willing to go above and beyond for Cease" thing...yet. We have heard the Cubs are interested in a higher level of P this year...I don't mind right now if it isn't Cease that they're after. There are a handful of pitchers who I would have in the same general category as Cease. 

That wasn't about Cease per say, that was just in general how i feel about Hoyer. Frankly I was lukewarm on Cease. Hoyer sets his valuation and that's that, he doesn't adjust with the market or situation and while that will keep him from signing any horrific contracts it's also going to keep him from attaining the top FAs.

[Jason Ross]

28 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

That wasn't about Cease per say, that was just in general how i feel about Hoyer. Frankly I was lukewarm on Cease. Hoyer sets his valuation and that's that, he doesn't adjust with the market or situation and while that will keep him from signing any horrific contracts it's also going to keep him from attaining the top FAs.

I'm not sure he doesn't adjust to the market so much; he just doesn't really get irrational. That's always been my issue with him too! 

I really like Imai, probably moreso than others, so if he's going to get irrational, I've got hope that a 27-year old IFA with no draft pick compensation is "the guy". Ultimately, I'm sure it won't be however. He has a tendency to disappoint. More likely they go value with King and you hope they build a better-than-normal bullpen (not that they build bad ones, I just mean instead of a bullpen that's good but non-elite, one that leans closer to shut down from day 1) to compensate.

[Rcal10]

20 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

I'm not sure he doesn't adjust to the market so much; he just doesn't really get irrational. That's always been my issue with him too! 

I really like Imai, probably moreso than others, so if he's going to get irrational, I've got hope that a 27-year old IFA with no draft pick compensation is "the guy". Ultimately, I'm sure it won't be however. He has a tendency to disappoint. More likely they go value with King and you hope they build a better-than-normal bullpen (not that they build bad ones, I just mean instead of a bullpen that's good but non-elite, one that leans closer to shut down from day 1) to compensate.

Love to get Imai. But I think the starting pitcher is going to be via a trade. Then they can spend more on pen arms as free agents. Maybe even a decent right handed bat. If they sign Imai, or even King, I am not sure how much money they will have to sink into the pen. I would also like to see PCA extended. I don’t doubt Jed will put a solid team on the field. I just wish they opened up the pocket book line a major market. And have serious doubts they will. 

[Jason Ross]

28 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Love to get Imai. But I think the starting pitcher is going to be via a trade. Then they can spend more on pen arms as free agents. Maybe even a decent right handed bat. If they sign Imai, or even King, I am not sure how much money they will have to sink into the pen. I would also like to see PCA extended. I don’t doubt Jed will put a solid team on the field. I just wish they opened up the pocket book line a major market. And have serious doubts they will. 

It could come through trade but I'm not convinced of that. They have plenty of room under the LT remaining and they seem highly unlikely to spend much via offense. They also have ways of shifting money via their rotation (I.E. moving Taillon in a money dump like they did Bellinger last off season). 

As of this point last off-season, the Cubs had done very little and their interest in moving off Bellinger wasn't really all that obvious, Kyle Tucker was not on the radar and most thought the Cubs would go big on SP and they went towards offense. I don't think we will see such a drastic shift this year (they have made it clear it's about pitching) but they didn't follow convention last year either. We will see where they go from here. I think reading into anything in any direction right now is premature. Good chance what the Cubs do won't fall under whatever the general consensus is that they will do anyways. 

I just think there are a lot of people, and not saying this at you specifically, who are very convinced as to what the team's plans are, but I'm not convinced of anything. I think we will see more what happens later and until then, I'm going to leave any pathway of acquiring pitching as equally as likely. 

[Stratos]

7 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

This is what frustrates me. I am not comparing Ricketts money to the money of the e Jay owners. I am just saying it is annoying that the Cubs don’t act big market when they are big market. And when other teams do spend without fear of the LT or fear of the next CBA it reminds me of how ridiculous our ownership philosophy is. 

It is annoying, but we know the drill by now.

We need to all not get too excited over the early reports of the Cubs swimming in deeper waters.  We know how they operate.  Like when they needed a big SS they went with the one who came on the best bang for buck.  That's what's going to happen here.   They may not sign the best SP available but they'll get someone good on a reasonable deal, maybe higher AAV for less years similar to Stroman or whatnot.

We also know they avoid paying significant money to older players like they're the plague.  So they likely won't sign Kelly.  I could see Imai, Gallen, or King etc

My issue is if you're always going to sign good but not great players, then you're going to settle for being a good but not great team.  Unless the farm has star players, and ours hasn't besides PCA. They even half-arsed the rebuild so no very high draft picks like Bryant.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

I forgot about Framber Valdez. Is he gonna get a Cease type deal?

[mk49]

1 hour ago, Tangled Up in Plaid said:

I forgot about Framber Valdez. Is he gonna get a Cease type deal?

I think he is.  Maybe, 1 less year.

[Tryptamine]

2 hours ago, Tangled Up in Plaid said:

I forgot about Framber Valdez. Is he gonna get a Cease type deal?

Definitely 5, maybe 6 years would be my guess.

[imb]

i know if i complain about the cubs not signing cease, he'll tear his elbow up before may and ill look like an idiot for wanting to give 7 years to a guy who's already dead. But if i say that Cease was not the guy for Jed to pay up for, he'll win 120 games over the next 7 years and forge a hall of fame career. too much power for one man to wield, so i'll say we'll just have to wait and see

[Stratos]

I could see Ranger Saurez as a good fit for the Cubs.  Only 30 years old, not going to get the years of Cease/Valdez.

Imai is only 27.  Because of the age I think he'd be the mostly likely for Hoyer to sign.

[Geographyhater8888]

21 hours ago, Jason Ross said:

It could come through trade but I'm not convinced of that. They have plenty of room under the LT remaining and they seem highly unlikely to spend much via offense. They also have ways of shifting money via their rotation (I.E. moving Taillon in a money dump like they did Bellinger last off season). 

As of this point last off-season, the Cubs had done very little and their interest in moving off Bellinger wasn't really all that obvious, Kyle Tucker was not on the radar and most thought the Cubs would go big on SP and they went towards offense. I don't think we will see such a drastic shift this year (they have made it clear it's about pitching) but they didn't follow convention last year either. We will see where they go from here. I think reading into anything in any direction right now is premature. Good chance what the Cubs do won't fall under whatever the general consensus is that they will do anyways. 

I just think there are a lot of people, and not saying this at you specifically, who are very convinced as to what the team's plans are, but I'm not convinced of anything. I think we will see more what happens later and until then, I'm going to leave any pathway of acquiring pitching as equally as likely. 

He won’t go over the LT, and we have a historical baseline for who and their $ amount of players he’ll invest into the roster with what he’s allowed to spend. No one knows how the offseason will shake out but what are the possible big surprises that deviate from the usual status quo?

Edited November 28, 2025 by Geographyhater8888

[Bertz]

Gallen and Suarez are pretty Jed coded but with how incessantly he's talking about strikeouts this winter id be surprised if we end up there.  Valdez is going to get approximately the same money as Cease and similarly does not feel like what Jed's seeking out this offseason.

We're looking at King or a trade IMO.  Outside shot of Imai.

[Rcal10]

18 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Gallen and Suarez are pretty Jed coded but with how incessantly he's talking about strikeouts this winter id be surprised if we end up there.  Valdez is going to get approximately the same money as Cease and similarly does not feel like what Jed's seeking out this offseason.

We're looking at King or a trade IMO.  Outside shot of Imai.

As Jason said, we really don’t know, there are a lot of ways they can go. But based on previous years with this FO and ownership, I agree with you. And between signing King or a trade, I would rather a trade for one of the cheaper controlled pitchers. Actually my preference would be Cabrera. First, he has 3 years left. Next he is the cheapest. A Cabrera trade might even allow them to bring back Keller and still have enough to shop in the star bat section. Maybe get Bregman or Bichette 🤷 Assuming that isn’t possible, they would still be able to build a really good pen and add a decent right handed platoon bat who can DH and play 1st. 
The sad part of all of this is Tucker isn’t even a consideration. Seems they are just letting that one go. And we all seem to be  in agreement that he is done and now looking at other options. Just not a good look for a large market team.

[Outshined_One]

12 hours ago, imb said:

i know if i complain about the cubs not signing cease, he'll tear his elbow up before may and ill look like an idiot for wanting to give 7 years to a guy who's already dead. But if i say that Cease was not the guy for Jed to pay up for, he'll win 120 games over the next 7 years and forge a hall of fame career. too much power for one man to wield, so i'll say we'll just have to wait and see

Great job, now he'll visit the Springfield Mystery Spot and will never be seen again.

[Geographyhater8888]

1 hour ago, Rcal10 said:

As Jason said, we really don’t know, there are a lot of ways they can go. But based on previous years with this FO and ownership, I agree with you. And between signing King or a trade, I would rather a trade for one of the cheaper controlled pitchers. Actually my preference would be Cabrera. First, he has 3 years left. Next he is the cheapest. A Cabrera trade might even allow them to bring back Keller and still have enough to shop in the star bat section. Maybe get Bregman or Bichette 🤷 Assuming that isn’t possible, they would still be able to build a really good pen and add a decent right handed platoon bat who can DH and play 1st. 
The sad part of all of this is Tucker isn’t even a consideration. Seems they are just letting that one go. And we all seem to be  in agreement that he is done and now looking at other options. Just not a good look for a large market team.

We know about what they won’t do than what they will do, like making a serious offer to Kyle Tucker. Trading for Joe Ryan and signing Alonso or Bregman to stay under the LT would be a huge surprise. I don’t see any way that happens.

Edited November 28, 2025 by Geographyhater8888

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

We know about what they won’t do than what they will do, like making a serious offer to Kyle Tucker. Trading for Joe Ryan and signing Alonso or Bregman to stay under the LT would be a huge surprise. I don’t see any way that happens.

But from a spending POV, they can trade for Cabrera or Ryan, then sign Fairbanks and still have enough for Bregman, even if they want to stay under the LT. Figure the pitcher they trade for and Fairbanks cost them $15M, total.  Bregman another $25M. That puts them at $40M and under the LT. Fill in other spots with system guys and maybe find a cheap lefty pen arm or two. Maybe Bregman takes more to sign so do so with deferrals. Get the salary down for LT purposes to that $25M. Sadly, this sort of thing would shock me as well. If all the pitchers are healthy and pitching well at the TDL, they can even consider trading Taillon to add what they might need then. All if this is supporting your claim that they won’t make a serious run at Tucker. Sadly,  I agree with you about that.

[Stratos]

5 hours ago, Bertz said:

Gallen and Suarez are pretty Jed coded but with how incessantly he's talking about strikeouts this winter id be surprised if we end up there.  Valdez is going to get approximately the same money as Cease and similarly does not feel like what Jed's seeking out this offseason.

We're looking at King or a trade IMO.  Outside shot of Imai.

What has Jed said about strikeouts?  Missed that

[Bull]

16 hours ago, imb said:

i know if i complain about the cubs not signing cease, he'll tear his elbow up before may and ill look like an idiot for wanting to give 7 years to a guy who's already dead. But if i say that Cease was not the guy for Jed to pay up for, he'll win 120 games over the next 7 years and forge a hall of fame career. too much power for one man to wield, so i'll say we'll just have to wait and see

If only you would would your power for good.

[Bertz]

29 minutes ago, Stratos said:

What has Jed said about strikeouts?  Missed that

He's talked about strikeouts and "taking some of the luck out of the game" a few times, most notably to me this retrospective on Kyle Hendricks:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/three-executives-on-developing-the-next-kyle-hendricks/

Quote

“The goal is run prevention, right?” Hoyer replied to that idea. “However you come into it. But it’s easier to prevent runs, in theory, if you take the luck out of the game. Strikeouts take the luck out of the game. When you’re inducing soft contact, some soft contact ends up being hits. It would be very difficult… if Kyle was striking out 16% of batters early in his career, I don’t think he would have had the success he did. He was in the low 20s [for strikeout rate] for awhile, and at that level, he was very successful. I think it’s very hard to have completely sustained success when you’re not missing any bats. You have to be able to miss bats and get strikeouts, and take the randomness out of the batted ball.”

I found this really funny but also very revealing.  A reporter calls asking for a few quotes for a fluff piece on Kyle and he's so laser focused on adding swing and miss to the current team it spills over with this diatribe.  I believe he had similar spiels during his end of season presser and his meeting with reporters at the GM meetings.

So I'd be surprised if the remaining SP is a finesse guy.  Michael King or Edward Cabrera are probably the smart money.

[Bertz]

I listened to Ken Rosenthal's podcast this AM.  Nothing Cubs specific but he did talk a lot about the market broadly:

- The SP free agent market is going to move at a good clip over the next two weeks.  It'll likely be picked over by the time the winter meetings are over

- Notable exception to the above is Imai.  Because of the logistics specific to him and his posting window, he's not going to sign until closer to Christmas

- Orioles, Braves, and Yankees were teams mentioned in the high end SP market.  Giants and Red Sox (post Gray) are likely going to hang out more mid-market.  Cubs and Mets didn't really get brought up here, I assume because both have been very transparent they're playing in these waters so it's not news?

- Trades are likely going to be back burnered until free agency has progressed more

- Expect a bunch of smoke around Tarik Skubal, Freddie Peralta, and Joe Ryan but for them to not ultimately go anywhere.  The other frequent names, the Edward Cabreras of the world, are more likely to actually be moved

[Tryptamine]

I know it's illogical to panic because it's crazy early, but I just have this overwhelming feeling you're looking at some like Gallen to the rotation, Finnegan to the pen and something like Refsnyder as a platoon bat. It's not completely and totally awful per say, just massively underwhelming.

[Bertz]

7 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

I know it's illogical to panic because it's crazy early, but I just have this overwhelming feeling you're looking at some like Gallen to the rotation, Finnegan to the pen and something like Refsnyder as a platoon bat. It's not completely and totally awful per say, just massively underwhelming.

Except for the 2020/2021 offseason right before the selloff, Jed has added at one player every offseason who had been worth 3+ WAR the year before:

'21/'22 - Stroman at 3.5 WAR

'22/'23 - Swanson at 6.6 WAR

'23/'24 - Bellinger at 4.4 WAR

'24/'25 - Tucker at 4.2 WAR

I'll be honest I don't expect that explicit streak to continue this winter, there are only so many 3+ WAR guys who feel likr a decent fit on this roster.  But for as conservative as he's been Jed has made at least one splashy move every winter. 

Smart money IMO is for two of the moves to be in line with what you've got above and a third that's well north of that level.  So like Gallen, Refsnyder, and Devin Williams.  Or Gallen, Finnegan, and Okamoto.  Or Finnegan, Refsnyder, and Imai.

[Bertz]

via Sharma this AM

Quote

According to a league source, the Cubs were in on Dylan Cease but bowed out as the bidding reached the $200 million mark.

So I'm presuming they didn't want to add that 7th year