Tatsuya Imai to the Astros

[ToolDRT]

4 minutes ago, The Cubs Dude said:

Does anyone think the Cubs will get him? I almost think that that would be a logical choice. And as the days pass, I think the Cubs need a solid starter; based on the trend of pitchers we've been seeing (Maton and Milner), I really believe that it is the best interest for the Cubs to introduce more unpredictability to the bullpen with the forkball/splitter with the 4-seam dominance (which is what I assume it to be, not a slider).

Ultimately, the Cubs are torn at this point. I am 75% sure that he will end up with them by January. Maybe the Giants. But, if we already signed a sweeper-thrower and a curveball-thrower, we could argue that the Cubs would be interested due to his sheer diversity in terms of pitchers (fastball, splitter, slider). But, with a high-velo 4-seam and a decent age, it's something the Cubs sorely need. I think of the bullpen as a pocket--select the most diverse options as possible, and he could keep the momentum going with that shocking WHIP.

 

I mostly agree with the direction you’re going, but I think the real inflection point here is usage context, not just pitch diversity. The Cubs’ recent acquisitions suggest they’re prioritizing shape separation and tunneling efficiency more than raw unpredictability for its own sake. A high-velo 4-seam paired with a true splitter does create vertical separation, but only if the release consistency holds up under leverage.

 

The question for me is whether his splitter actually plays as a bat-misser at the MLB level or if it’s more contact-management driven. If it’s the latter, I’m not sure it meaningfully moves the needle compared to what they already have. That said, the WHIP profile is hard to ignore, especially if it’s supported by weak-contact metrics rather than BABIP luck.

 

I also wouldn’t underestimate age curve here. If the Cubs see him as a short-term volatility stabilizer rather than a long-term bullpen anchor, the fit makes more sense. Giants feel like the obvious fallback, but Chicago has been quietly willing to bet on pitch-mix upside lately, even if the surface numbers don’t jump off the page.

 

So yeah — not a lock, but if they’re optimizing for diversity + cost efficiency, I can see the logic.

[DrCub]

6 minutes ago, ToolDRT said:

I mostly agree with the direction you’re going, but I think the real inflection point here is usage context, not just pitch diversity. The Cubs’ recent acquisitions suggest they’re prioritizing shape separation and tunneling efficiency more than raw unpredictability for its own sake. A high-velo 4-seam paired with a true splitter does create vertical separation, but only if the release consistency holds up under leverage.

 

The question for me is whether his splitter actually plays as a bat-misser at the MLB level or if it’s more contact-management driven. If it’s the latter, I’m not sure it meaningfully moves the needle compared to what they already have. That said, the WHIP profile is hard to ignore, especially if it’s supported by weak-contact metrics rather than BABIP luck.

 

I also wouldn’t underestimate age curve here. If the Cubs see him as a short-term volatility stabilizer rather than a long-term bullpen anchor, the fit makes more sense. Giants feel like the obvious fallback, but Chicago has been quietly willing to bet on pitch-mix upside lately, even if the surface numbers don’t jump off the page.

 

So yeah — not a lock, but if they’re optimizing for diversity + cost efficiency, I can see the logic.

I’m not sure if I can love this post enough.  

[Guest]

12 minutes ago, ToolDRT said:

I mostly agree with the direction you’re going, but I think the real inflection point here is usage context, not just pitch diversity. The Cubs’ recent acquisitions suggest they’re prioritizing shape separation and tunneling efficiency more than raw unpredictability for its own sake. A high-velo 4-seam paired with a true splitter does create vertical separation, but only if the release consistency holds up under leverage.

 

The question for me is whether his splitter actually plays as a bat-misser at the MLB level or if it’s more contact-management driven. If it’s the latter, I’m not sure it meaningfully moves the needle compared to what they already have. That said, the WHIP profile is hard to ignore, especially if it’s supported by weak-contact metrics rather than BABIP luck.

 

I also wouldn’t underestimate age curve here. If the Cubs see him as a short-term volatility stabilizer rather than a long-term bullpen anchor, the fit makes more sense. Giants feel like the obvious fallback, but Chicago has been quietly willing to bet on pitch-mix upside lately, even if the surface numbers don’t jump off the page.

 

So yeah — not a lock, but if they’re optimizing for diversity + cost efficiency, I can see the logic.

Finally, someone who speaks in terms of analytics/baseball economics!

I do think that the Cubs would view him as a "short-term volatility stabilizer." Again, and I do stand by my previous point, I do believe that the Cubs need dominance diversity and an uptick in velocity, which the other two pitchers don't substantially provide as their repertoires sit sorely around average and have no anomalies within the data (unlike Imai). 

With contact, I don't have much expertise in that area, but I do think that you implicitly supported the necessity of diversity by saying that we need individuals who are bat missers. I think other users sorely miss the point when they believe that contact is something we should emphasize (driven by stats like IFFB), but I think you're on-point when we want reliability. After all, velo correlates with more efficient strikeouts, and I think strikeouts--not fly balls--are necessary. 

The only point of volatility/uncertainty here is his predictions for the future. With that arm, he's bound to get injured, in my opinion, but he's reliable in the sense that he's a catalyst for stability and is perfectly in the middle between Carter's extreme or the carpe-diem immediates. 

Thanks, TrollDRT. I really appreciate that!

May I ask what you majored in? I'm an aspiring Econ/PolSci major.

Edited December 14, 2025 by The Cubs Dude

[Derwood]

20 minutes ago, The Cubs Dude said:

So then why are you here?!

I don't have an opinion about this particular player because I know very little about him, so I'm not going to pretend I do.

[Guest]

1 minute ago, Derwood said:

I don't have an opinion about this particular player because I know very little about him, so I'm not going to pretend I do.

Awesome! 👊

What part of the Cubs are you more drawn to--MiLB possibilities or the Cubs' rich history?

Edited December 14, 2025 by The Cubs Dude

[ToolDRT]

7 minutes ago, The Cubs Dude said:

Finally, someone who speaks in terms of analytics/baseball economics!

I do think that the Cubs would view him as a "short-term volatility stabilizer." Again, and I do stand by my previous point, I do believe that the Cubs need dominance diversity and an uptick in velocity, which the other two pitchers don't substantially provide as their repertoires sit sorely around average and have no anomalies within the data (unlike Imai). 

With contact, I don't have much expertise in that area, but I do think that you implicitly supported the necessity of diversity by saying that we need individuals who are bat missers. I think other users sorely miss the point when they believe that contact is something we should emphasize (driven by stats like IFFB), but I think you're on-point when we want reliability. After all, velo correlates with more efficient strikeouts, and I think strikeouts--not fly balls--are necessary. 

The only point of volatility/uncertainty here is his predictions for the future. With that arm, he's bound to get injured, in my opinion, but he's reliable in the sense that he's a catalyst for stability and is perfectly in the middle between Carter's extreme or the carpe-diem immediates. 

Thanks, TrollDRT. I really appreciate that!

May I ask what you majored in? I'm an aspiring Econ/PolSci major.

That’s fair, and I think you’re framing the debate correctly in terms of process over outcome. When I mention bat-missing, I’m less concerned with raw strikeout totals and more with how those strikeouts are generated — specifically whether the velocity and pitch shape combination produces sustainable whiff profiles rather than situational spikes.

 

On the contact side, I agree that metrics like IFFB can be misleading if they aren’t contextualized with velocity bands and vertical approach angle. Fly-ball suppression alone doesn’t really solve the bullpen volatility issue if hitters aren’t being consistently put into defensive counts. That’s where velo becomes more than just an aesthetic upgrade — it compresses decision time and raises the margin for error.

 

Injury risk is probably the unavoidable tradeoff here. High-velo arms with splitter-heavy usage almost always carry fragility flags, but that’s where I think the Cubs’ risk tolerance comes into play. If they’re treating this as a variance-management move rather than a durability bet, the calculus shifts. You accept elevated injury probability in exchange for short-term stabilization and matchup leverage.

 

The Carter comparison is interesting too. Extremes can work, but they tend to amplify downside if the underlying command wobbles. Someone sitting in that middle ground — not purely reactive, not purely speculative — might actually fit the Cubs’ current window better than people expect.

 

As for your last question, my background’s more economics-adjacent than baseball-specific, but I’ve always gravitated toward roster construction questions because they sit right at the intersection of risk modeling and constrained resources. Econ/PolSci is a solid combo if you’re interested in that space.

[Derwood]

Just now, The Cubs Dude said:

Awesome! 👊

What part of the Cubs are you more drawn to--MiLB possibilities or the Cubs' rich history?

[Tryptamine]

Can we please go back to talking about all the players Jed is "interested" in? This is unbearable even by our usual standards.

[Outshined_One]

FFS, don't make me defend Derwood and explain why ripping on him when you've shared multiple forums with him for over 20 years is different from ripping on him after posting in a forum for a few days.

[Guest]

19 minutes ago, Outshined_One said:

FFS, don't make me defend Derwood and explain why ripping on him when you've shared multiple forums with him for over 20 years is different from ripping on him after posting in a forum for a few days.

I'm not ripping on him--I madly respect him. He reminds me of what I am probably going to be in 20 years, because I would be annoyed with myself too!

[CubinNY]

This was fun for a while, but it’s off to ignore, both sad and inevitable. 

[Guest]

19 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

This was fun for a while, but it’s off to ignore, both sad and inevitable. 

Are you talking about me?

[Rcal10]

24 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

This was fun for a while, but it’s off to ignore, both sad and inevitable. 

Me too. Not even fun to come here any longer. 

[Guest]

17 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Me too. Not even fun to come here any longer. 

Is this because of me? Or just a broader trend?

[Rcal10]

What is happening? I put someone in my ignore list and I am still seeing posts by him. I see his name on my list and yet still seeing posts. WHY????? 

[Guest]

10 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

What is happening? I put someone in my ignore list and I am still seeing posts by him. I see his name on my list and yet still seeing posts. WHY????? 

Not sure. Ask @Brock Beauchampso he can fix it for you.

I'm sorry for having not made a good first impression. 😞

[Guest]

2 hours ago, Tryptamine said:

Can we please go back to talking about all the players Jed is "interested" in? This is unbearable even by our usual standards.

Please do. Am I that unbearable? 😉

[Stratos]

On 12/4/2025 at 6:05 PM, BKHoo said:

I feel like his comments were more of a joke, but let's see where he lands up.  I keep hearing SF.

I'm pretty surprised how much people have taken Imai's comments about the language thing seriously.  Or wanting to be beat the Dodgers rather than beat them.

He probably does mean these things as random thoughts that cross the back of his mind during interviews that he just blurts out, but the few extra million dollars the top bidding team will throw at him will very likely send all these thoughts to the trash bin.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

The Yankees seem interested and I have a hard time seeing Jed and PTR outbidding them.

[Geographyhater8888]

15 hours ago, The Cubs Dude said:

 

I would argue that the baseball conversations are not a waste of time, but to each their own.

 

They’re not. You composed 10 paragraphs in that comment alone without a single baseball thought. Thats a waste of everyone’s time. That’s 150 of your posts in a nutshell. In the off chance this isn’t a bit, my advice is stop  littering the chat with 12 paragraph posts that have nothing to do with the thread title.

Edited December 14, 2025 by Geographyhater8888

[Geographyhater8888]

15 hours ago, The Cubs Dude said:

 

Thank you guys for the concerns. I am in no way trying to throw shade on other people.

So, basically, the situation was that Derwood started out rather mean, but then actually started joking around with me (which I appreciate), Hot Sauce also appreciated my attention to detail as well as the fact that I have a unique mind, and the two others--Bertz and Jason--have either been annoying but mad funny (the former) or intrusive and deceitful because he assumed that I was autistic through obvious phrasing as well as refusing to talk to me when he realized I was a high school student in any of the discussions (the latter). 

I'm not perfect at all. In real life, believe it or not, I'm introverted and receive a lot of bullying for being quiet. Weirdly, however, many of the popular kids like me, and it is the less popular who try to alienate me. Compound that with them calling me "ChatGPT" (not unlike certain other members on here) because I write with good grammar (for the most part), and I feel effectively strange here.

I would argue that the baseball conversations are not a waste of time, but to each their own.

And I do genuinely want to work on this. That's why I'm practicing this on six other forums, because I want to find a place where I can belong. And I still think here can be the place if we put the past behind us. 

If you have any other suggestions, please give them to me. Ultimately, I want us to all talk baseball and be chill with each other, because that's why we're here.

I appreciate both of your posts and thank you for the time. And I get that I might be perceived as a "douche," but this is my first week here. I'm not sure about your first weeks on here, but they might have been met with hostile reception. 

Tomorrow, I'm going to put this all behind me and pretend this never existed. If people think I'm AI, I have to learn that I can't change their opinions and I can only prove it by continuing to be myself.

So after you respond, I'm only going to be talking about baseball. And I want to start off by asking you what you think about Imai, because continuing like this undermines the whole "baseball" part of this forum.

Thank you!

Neither of them said that.

 

Edited December 14, 2025 by Geographyhater8888

[Bertz]

5 hours ago, Tangled Up in Plaid said:

The Yankees seem interested and I have a hard time seeing Jed and PTR outbidding them.

Yankees are interesting because they probably have enough room for one more move of substance, and you could argue in a couple directions what that ought to be.

I suspect they bring Bellinger back as their big move but we'll see.

[Hot Sauce]

1 hour ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

Neither of them said that.

 

Stay out of Culver’s, fatty! 

[Guest]

1 hour ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

Neither of them said that.

 

This is is the last time I will mention this at all: I've ignored that user, but Jason did it as well (and Bertz seems to have relented). Don't know about that screenshotted user since I haven't interacted with them much. Back to baseball, please...? We can put this all behind us or we can keep talking about it. 

,,,

@Bertz: What about the Giants? That's who I thought would also be interested in Imai before the Yankees. I couldn't honestly see them going in the direction of Imai at all. Ultimately, we've kept him under our radar for a long time, and Bellinger would be the big move for the Yankees, so it leaves us to make our move to diversify our portfolio and take advantage of the anomalous velo.

That's a problem with our last two-picks--no velo, each pitch around average. But when there's an outlier and the extremely low WHIP, this is a team-stabilizer.

@Hot Sauce: I have a thread about Edward Cabrera, if you would like to start arguing baseball with me.

Edited December 14, 2025 by The Cubs Dude

[sweetpeteman]

10 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

What is happening? I put someone in my ignore list and I am still seeing posts by him. I see his name on my list and yet still seeing posts. WHY????? 

Make sure you selected to ignore posts. It's odd but you have to select what you want to ignore.