Cubs (Imanaga?) vs Brewers (Misiorowski?): 10/11/25, 7:08pm

[Geographyhater8888]

46 minutes ago, 17 Seconds said:

i highly doubt the brewers are improving on 97 wins and a +172 run differential next year. i expect the cubs and brewers to both be worse

Maybe they make a big blockbuster trade to acquire an Edward Cabrera for those precious fringe top 50 prospects but that’s counter intuitive to that sustained success. Maybe they’ll give Cease a medium length deal and call it an offseason but there’s a chance they go the route of reclamation projects like a Bieber/Buehler/or even Trevor Bauer who was a tad unlucky in the Japanese league.

Edited October 12, 2025 by Geographyhater8888

[cl smooth]

1 minute ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

or even Trevor Bauer who was a tad unlucky in the Japanese league.

nah, he just horsefeathers sucks ass. 

[Geographyhater8888]

1 minute ago, cl smooth said:

nah, he just horsefeathers sucks ass. 

That’s the joke.

[Rcal10]

13 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

Maybe they make a big blockbuster trade to acquire an Edward Cabrera for those precious fringe top 50 prospects but that’s counter intuitive to that sustained success. Maybe they’ll give Cease a medium length deal and call it an offseason but there’s a chance they go the route of reclamation projects like a Bieber/Buehler/or even Trevor Bauer who was a tad unlucky in the Japanese league.

I can definitely see revisiting Cabrera or Alcantara trades. Price may be more reasonable and the Cubs may be willing to meet it. They can do that and/or sign a higher end FA pitcher (Cease, King, Valdez, Suarez, and Gallen come to mind). 

[DrCub]

1 hour ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

Assuming PCAs 30/30/30 season was an aberration you’re hoping he’s an average bat too, which is already a downgrade from his over performance in the first half. Kelly/McGuire/Amaya won’t combine for 30 homers and a mid 120’s wRC+, Tucker will walk and we know this entails slotting Bellesteros/Cassie in at DH…… That’s more regression too. Best case scenario is they sign a couple legitimate arms like a Valdez or Cease and maybe a lockdown pen arm. A major shake up from this complacent front office would shock me.

This 100%.  The Cubs were 17th in runs scored since June 1 (or for 2/3 of the season).  With the regressions that are likely, plus losing Tucker, the offense may be terrifying.  It concerns me more than the pitching.  

[Geographyhater8888]

23 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I can definitely see revisiting Cabrera or Alcantara trades. Price may be more reasonable and the Cubs may be willing to meet it. They can do that and/or sign a higher end FA pitcher (Cease, King, Valdez, Suarez, and Gallen come to mind). 

I just don’t which direction they intend to take. Will Cassie be used as a trade chip or a contingency plan for Happ/Suzuki? Happ will be off the books next season and 30 so they’ll either find his replacement which will be a typical 4 year deal for maybe 12 wins or roll with these fringe top 50 prospects? Either way a 4 year $100 million deal for Cease seems par for the course. For a team so adamant on “2032” And “sustained success” their farm is relatively weak.

[Geographyhater8888]

26 minutes ago, DrCub said:

This 100%.  The Cubs were 17th in runs scored since June 1 (or for 2/3 of the season).  With the regressions that are likely, plus losing Tucker, the offense may be terrifying.  It concerns me more than the pitching.  

We still have to assume this bullpen full of waiver wire pickups will be as effective too. But regression is a given and Happ and Swanson aren’t getting any younger either. People love pointing to their respectable wRC+ which doesn’t explain the large disconnect in runs scored exactly even with the park factor. They weren’t  scoring away from wrigley either.

Edited October 12, 2025 by Geographyhater8888

[Bertz]

8 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

We still have to assume this bullpen full of waiver wire pickups will be as effective too. But regression is a given and Happ and Swanson aren’t getting any younger either. People love pointing to their respectable wRC+ which doesn’t explain the large disconnect in runs scored exactly even with the park factor. They weren’t  scoring away from wrigley either.

You speak very confidently for someone who does not understand how this stuff works

[Geographyhater8888]

Just now, Bertz said:

You speak very confidently for someone who does not understand how this stuff works

Can you elaborate? I can tell you how wOBA is calculated off the top of my head. I’m here to learn so teach me. I’m all eyes buddy. Humble me. 

[Jason Ross]

2 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

We still have to assume this bullpen full of waiver wire pickups will be as effective too. But regression is a given and Happ and Swanson aren’t getting any younger either. People love pointing to their respectable wRC+ which doesn’t explain the large disconnect in runs scored exactly. Not even the park factor. They weren’t exactly scoring away from wrigley either.

Bad variance, bad sequencing and competition does. People never like that as an answer (despite how valid of an answer it is), but when we look at BP's dRC+, which is based on expected rate metrics and takes into account competition faced, even after June 1st, the Cubs were 4th in baseball. 

[Geographyhater8888]

3 hours ago, Jason Ross said:

Bad variance, bad sequencing and competition does. People never like that as an answer (despite how valid of an answer it is), but when we look at BP's dRC+, which is based on expected rate metrics and takes into account competition faced, even after June 1st, the Cubs were 4th in baseball. 

I don’t like hearing that either. Bad luck is a harder pill to swallow than simply blaming a lack of scoring on bad hitters but I appreciate the explanation as always. Not to say that Passive aggressive, snarky comments isn’t constructive feedback but I prefer your approach. That was my intuitive guess. 

Edited October 12, 2025 by Geographyhater8888

[Bertz]

2 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

Can you elaborate? I can tell you how wOBA is calculated off the top of my head. I’m here to learn so teach me. I’m all eyes buddy. Humble me. 

For starters there's no disconnect.  The team was 5th in runs, 7th in wOBA, 4th in xwOBA.  The difference between their actual runs scored and their Baseruns (which strips *all* context to estimate offense) is .05 runs per game, which is essentially a rounding error.  None of these specific numbers are park adjusted so there's not any bias there either.

 

[Jason Ross]

Just now, Geographyhater8888 said:

I don’t like hearing that either. Bad luck is a harder pill to swallow than simply blaming it on bad hitters. But I appreciate the explanation as always. Not that Passive aggressive, snarky comments aren’t constructive feedback but I prefer your approach. That was my intuitive guess. 

We can see this as well in a few places. The Cubs had the third worst BABIP after June 1st. Their observed OPS was 11th (.733) and their deserved OPS was 4th (.746). 

I think we have to just accept to a good degree, much of what happened offensively to the Cubs was just the opposite of what happened in Milwaukee; coin flips went in their favor and against the Cubs. Baseball is a weird sport like that.

[Rcal10]

26 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

I just don’t which direction they intend to take. Will Cassie be used as a trade chip or a contingency plan for Happ/Suzuki? Happ will be off the books next season and 30 so they’ll either find his replacement which will be a typical 4 year deal for maybe 12 wins or roll with these fringe top 50 prospects? Either way a 4 year $100 million deal for Cease seems par for the course. For a team so adamant on “2032” And “sustained success” their farm is relatively weak.

If we are all assuming Tucker walks what I would like to see is them go after Bregman. But him at 3rd and use Shaw plus Cassie or Alcantara to trade for a young controlled pitcher (Cabrera). Maybe let Shota walk too, and instead of spending 19M a year on him, go after Cease or Suarez. Will cost a little more annual, but I think they are better pitchers. One of those FA pitchers plus Cabrera and Horton give you 3 solid TOR pitchers. You can probably trade Tailon too and be fine with Boyd and Steele (once healthy) to round out the rotation. Until Steele is healthy you fill in with Rea, Assad, Brown and/or Wicks. Maybe Tailon gets you a bench bat. Mo at DH and Bregman in the line up should at least match Shaw and Tucker from this year. And your rotation is a lot better. 

[Geographyhater8888]

2 minutes ago, Bertz said:

For starters there's no disconnect.  The team was 5th in runs, 7th in wOBA, 4th in xwOBA.  The difference between their actual runs scored and their Baseruns (which strips *all* context to estimate offense) is .05 runs per game, which is essentially a rounding error.  None of these specific numbers are park adjusted so there's not any bias there either.

 

I was speaking about the runs/game since june. 17th in runs scored and 10th in wRC+. Jason gave me a good explanation but it’s in regards to previous comment about the 2026 outlook of the offense.

[We Got The Whole 9]

1 hour ago, 17 Seconds said:

i highly doubt the brewers are improving on 97 wins and a +172 run differential next year. i expect the cubs and brewers to both be worse

I think they will be a stronger team. Full year of Woodruff, Miz is disgusting, hate to admit it but he is, Made and Pena are a call away, they have an endless array of arms to replace Peralta if they deal him and depending on which direction they go, they might get another MLB ready piece for him. Patrick was really good himself. 

 

 

[Bertz]

1 minute ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

I was speaking about the runs/game since june. 17th in runs scored and 10th in wRC+. Jason gave me a good explanation but it’s in regards to previous comment about the 2026 outlook of the offense.

What possible reason could there be for only focusing on June 1st onward?

[squally1313]

The games before then don’t count, obviously 

[gflore34]

Full of hot takes, I don't like the idea of giving up on Shaw.  He's hit and hit well at every level of baseball, no reason to assume he won't improve.

[Geographyhater8888]

Just now, Bertz said:

What possible reason could there be for only focusing on June 1st onward?

Because they dropped from 1st to 17th in runs scored.. A little regression is likely assuming PCA, the catcher position overachieved offensively and they’ll be without Tucker, which coincided with the slide around June and the dip. It could be offset by adding more arms and I’ll give the cubs credit for being a coin flip away from the NLCS. 

[17 Seconds]

15 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

I think they will be a stronger team. Full year of Woodruff, Miz is disgusting, hate to admit it but he is, Made and Pena are a call away, they have an endless array of arms to replace Peralta if they deal him and depending on which direction they go, they might get another MLB ready piece for him. Patrick was really good himself. 

 

 

they might be better on paper than they were on paper this year, but I just don't see them winning 97 games again

[Bertz]

4 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

Because they dropped from 1st to 17th in runs scored.. A little regression is likely assuming PCA, the catcher position overachieved offensively and they’ll be without Tucker, which coincided with the slide around June and the dip. It could be offset by adding more arms and I’ll give the cubs credit for being a coin flip away from the NLCS. 

The Cubs were 6th in runs scored from August 29th to the end of the season, why not use that as your baseline for what the real offense is?

[squally1313]

Because that doesn’t help his narrative 

[Geographyhater8888]

Just now, Bertz said:

The Cubs were 6th in runs scored from August 29th to the end of the season, why not use that as your baseline for what the real offense is?

Good point. Maybe we’re better off without Kyle Tucker after all. 

[gflore34]

27 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

I think they will be a stronger team. Full year of Woodruff, Miz is disgusting, hate to admit it but he is, Made and Pena are a call away, they have an endless array of arms to replace Peralta if they deal him and depending on which direction they go, they might get another MLB ready piece for him. Patrick was really good himself. 

 

 

Brewers are immune to regression?  An awful lot of things went well for them.  Let’s just assume they’ll all go well again while everything will regress for the Cubs.