Cubs (Assad) vs Rockies (Brown): 8/30/25, 7:10pm

[Illiterate Scholar]

Nice job, way to clinch a winning west coast trip. 

I'll be ready to fire Hoyer and Counsell if they lose tomorrow 

[UMFan83]

Fangraphs playoff odds now at 99.8%, behind only the Brewers (100.0%) and Phillies (100.0%)

11 of the 12 playoff spots are occupied by a team with at least 92.6% odds and the 12th spot has a team with 82.5% chance of making it (Seattle).  The highest odds someone not in a playoff spot has of making the playoffs is the Royals at 15.2%.

Here is how many games up on a playoff spot each current team is:

Brewers - 16.5

Phillies - 11.0

Cubs - 10.0

Dodgers - 9.0

Tigers - 8.5

Padres - 8.0

Blue Jays - 8.0

Yankees - 6.0

Mets - 5.0

Astros - 5.0

Red Sox - 4.5

Mariners - 2.0

Edited August 31, 2025 by UMFan83

[Bull]

6 hours ago, UMFan83 said:

Fangraphs playoff odds now at 99.8%, behind only the Brewers (100.0%) and Phillies (100.0%)

11 of the 12 playoff spots are occupied by a team with at least 92.6% odds and the 12th spot has a team with 82.5% chance of making it (Seattle).  The highest odds someone not in a playoff spot has of making the playoffs is the Royals at 15.2%.

Here is how many games up on a playoff spot each current team is:

Brewers - 16.5

Phillies - 11.0

Cubs - 10.0

Dodgers - 9.0

Tigers - 8.5

Padres - 8.0

Blue Jays - 8.0

Yankees - 6.0

Mets - 5.0

Astros - 5.0

Red Sox - 4.5

Mariners - 2.0

funny thing is, if there were fewer playoff spots available, there would be a lot more drama. At this point only drama is seeding, but knock it back to 2 wild card teams and we have some intrigue.

[Rcal10]

9 hours ago, Papa Cub said:

I do not care what this team’s record is at the moment - yes, they will most likely (barring some sort of colossal meltdown) make the postseason. However, this is not a good baseball team right now. Quite honestly, I’m not seeing it changing anytime soon. Very little life - poor management, inconsistent bats and a shaky pitching staff. They have had a nice season overall, but they will NOT contend with teams like Milwaukee, Dodgers, Padres, Phillies or even the Mets come the playoffs. There will be people that will feel the need to comment and argue this point and that’s fine, but either way - I just try to go off what I see and keep it real. This team is subpar despite their record. 

Not even going to argue the comment here. Just going to point out this is the  typical negative response that will, most likely, eventually be correct so the poster could come back with “I told you so”. They weren’t good enough. Never mind the record. Never mind stats that suggest the Cubs are near the top in all offensive and pitching categories, the eye test says they are not good. So what if they are 20 games over .500, they struggle to beat teams. I mean the Rockies suck and they have struggled every game they played them. Doesn’t matter they are 5-0 against them. 🤷 Again, not arguing with  Papa Cub. It is his opinion and fine that this is what he sees. But I am pretty sure if he or any other poster watched almost every game if all the other teams he suggested we couldn’t beat there would be a similar post about that team not being able to beat any if the good teams at some point during the season. And the truth is, most likely that post would be correct too. 

[Rcal10]

9 hours ago, Papa Cub said:

Where is my buddy on here that argued with me about how PCA’s elite defense is enough to warrant him not sitting out some games?? No doubt the kid is talented, especially in the field, but this guy is a liability anymore at the plate! It’s ridiculous- sit him already or make some changes. Do something Craig 

PCA definitely needs a reset and to sit a game or 2. But I think he will play in Colorado. I really don’t want to see Castro in center at this park. Get home and give PCA some time off.

[Geographyhater8888]

18 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Not even going to argue the comment here. Just going to point out this is the  typical negative response that will, most likely, eventually be correct so the poster could come back with “I told you so”. They weren’t good enough. Never mind the record. Never mind stats that suggest the Cubs are near the top in all offensive and pitching categories, the eye test says they are not good. So what if they are 20 games over .500, they struggle to beat teams. I mean the Rockies suck and they have struggled every game they played them. Doesn’t matter they are 5-0 against them. 🤷 Again, not arguing with  Papa Cub. It is his opinion and fine that this is what he sees. But I am pretty sure if he or any other poster watched almost every game if all the other teams he suggested we couldn’t beat there would be a similar post about that team not being able to beat any if the good teams at some point during the season. And the truth is, most likely that post would be correct too. 

If they beat Sandiego or LA in the wild card round and win a game vs any opponent in the divisional round he can’t say “I told you so” because they competed with and won a series vs one of the above teams. 

[Derwood]

I nodded off some time in the 7th and was happy to wake up to this result.

 

 

[BKHoo]

If the Brewers were not having a historic year we’d be in first place and happier. 

The Cubs HAVE taken the step forward this year that we all wanted compared to 24 and 23. We are 20 over and in the playoffs. 
 

I’m very happy and excited about October. 

[Rcal10]

1 minute ago, BKHoo said:

If the Brewers were not having a historic year we’d be in first place and happier. 

The Cubs HAVE taken the step forward this year that we all wanted compared to 24 and 23. We are 20 over and in the playoffs. 
 

I’m very happy and excited about October. 

Exactly. Can’t help what the Brewers are doing. Can only beat them when we play them. And we did fine against them. Cubs can beat any team in baseball. But the reality is, they can also lose to them. Doesn’t mean they didn’t have a chance. They obviously do. 

[Rcal10]

32 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

If they beat Sandiego or LA in the wild card round and win a game vs any opponent in the divisional round he can’t say “I told you so” because they competed with and won a series vs one of the above teams. 

Maybe, but typical the negative responses just move the goal posts until the team finally loses. And, besides that, even if they played San Diego and got eliminated that doesn’t validate the opinion that they CAN’T beat SD. It just means in that particular series they didn’t. Doesn’t mean they are not good. Playoffs are a crapshoot. Especially this year when there is no dominate team. 

[Geographyhater8888]

1 hour ago, Rcal10 said:

Maybe, but typical the negative responses just move the goal posts until the team finally loses. And, besides that, even if they played San Diego and got eliminated that doesn’t validate the opinion that they CAN’T beat SD. It just means in that particular series they didn’t. Doesn’t mean they are not good. Playoffs are a crapshoot. Especially this year when there is no dominate team. 

I don’t think anyone’s disputing that they’re not good. But with the way they’ve been playing as of this moment just doesn’t inspire a ton of confidence. A 6-3 road trip if they win today would match our bar of expectations. Winning nail biters vs the angels Pirates and Rockies and an offense that struggles to score over 4 runs, as of this very moment isn’t inspiring much confidence whether fair or not.

I think people ignore the aggregate 136 game sample size because they haven’t really had the long winning streaks putting up crooked scores in forever or really at all topping out at 5 games and no real statement series sweep of a playoff contender, the lack of highs distracts us from the lack of lows. 

Luckily there’s still time for the bats to heat back up but the reaction from some posters is chasing that unsustainable early season magic. Credit to Counsell for keeping the pen fresh enough to win games on the margins. 
I’m saying this in as detached of a way as possible here, and 100% of posters would’ve been satisfied with 90+ wins back in march.

Edited August 31, 2025 by Geographyhater8888

[BKHoo]

6 hours ago, Bull said:

funny thing is, if there were fewer playoff spots available, there would be a lot more drama. At this point only drama is seeding, but knock it back to 2 wild card teams and we have some intrigue.

This year is an anomaly. You could argue in some past years the more playoff spots have increased the drama. 

[Bull]

1 hour ago, BKHoo said:

This year is an anomaly. You could argue in some past years the more playoff spots have increased the drama. 

Yeah, for sure. And that was the point of doing it: more teams involved = more potential for drama.  This is the anomaly That’s what I was trying to communicate with “funny thing is”. I definitely wasn’t clear.

[chibears55]

😅

Edited August 31, 2025 by chibears55

[Papa Cub]

8 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

Not even going to argue the comment here. Just going to point out this is the  typical negative response that will, most likely, eventually be correct so the poster could come back with “I told you so”. They weren’t good enough. Never mind the record. Never mind stats that suggest the Cubs are near the top in all offensive and pitching categories, the eye test says they are not good. So what if they are 20 games over .500, they struggle to beat teams. I mean the Rockies suck and they have struggled every game they played them. Doesn’t matter they are 5-0 against them. 🤷 Again, not arguing with  Papa Cub. It is his opinion and fine that this is what he sees. But I am pretty sure if he or any other poster watched almost every game if all the other teams he suggested we couldn’t beat there would be a similar post about that team not being able to beat any if the good teams at some point during the season. And the truth is, most likely that post would be correct too. 

That was poetic 

[Papa Cub]

8 hours ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

If they beat Sandiego or LA in the wild card round and win a game vs any opponent in the divisional round he can’t say “I told you so” because they competed with and won a series vs one of the above teams. 

And I will be the first one to admit I was wrong. I guess we will wait and see. I HOPE they can win a postseason series against one of those teams I mentioned. I am simply stating what I SEE. I see a team that overachieved in the first half of the season and have struggled mightily since the break (not uncommon for any team), but there is something “off” and you guys can have your opinion and I’ll have mine. We can agree to disagree I guess. Either way - win or lose, Go Cubs! Hope they can turn it around and win some playoff series. 

[Rcal10]

10 minutes ago, Papa Cub said:

And I will be the first one to admit I was wrong. I guess we will wait and see. I HOPE they can win a postseason series against one of those teams I mentioned. I am simply stating what I SEE. I see a team that overachieved in the first half of the season and have struggled mightily since the break (not uncommon for any team), but there is something “off” and you guys can have your opinion and I’ll have mine. We can agree to disagree I guess. Either way - win or lose, Go Cubs! Hope they can turn it around and win some playoff series. 

I just used a random date of July 3rd to check the standings. At that time the Cubs were 17 over .500. Phillies were 15 over, Mets 12 over and the Dodger were 24 over .500. So basically none of those teams has exactly lit it up since then. Dodgers are under .500 since then. So did those teams overachieve in the first half? And now they are not very good? I am not disagreeing with you when you say they haven’t played well. But someone has to win in the playoffs. So I guess it has to be either the Padres (who are 2-5 in their last 7) or the Brewers. I think when anyone watches just one team they tend to see their flaws. I think all fan bases feel the same way about their team as you do, the Cubs. I agree with you also on GO CUBS. 

[Papa Cub]

1 hour ago, Rcal10 said:

I just used a random date of July 3rd to check the standings. At that time the Cubs were 17 over .500. Phillies were 15 over, Mets 12 over and the Dodger were 24 over .500. So basically none of those teams has exactly lit it up since then. Dodgers are under .500 since then. So did those teams overachieve in the first half? And now they are not very good? I am not disagreeing with you when you say they haven’t played well. But someone has to win in the playoffs. So I guess it has to be either the Padres (who are 2-5 in their last 7) or the Brewers. I think when anyone watches just one team they tend to see their flaws. I think all fan bases feel the same way about their team as you do, the Cubs. I agree with you also on GO CUBS. 

I agree with your statement, “when someone watches one team(their team), they tend to see their flaws.” 
I appreciate your reply here @Rcal10. What you said makes a lot of sense, and we can both agree on this - GO CUBS! 

[Geographyhater8888]

3 hours ago, Papa Cub said:

And I will be the first one to admit I was wrong. I guess we will wait and see. I HOPE they can win a postseason series against one of those teams I mentioned. I am simply stating what I SEE. I see a team that overachieved in the first half of the season and have struggled mightily since the break (not uncommon for any team), but there is something “off” and you guys can have your opinion and I’ll have mine. We can agree to disagree I guess. Either way - win or lose, Go Cubs! Hope they can turn it around and win some playoff series. 

I think Carson’s Kelly’s 1.3K April OPS and PCA 26 home runs in a 79 game span from April-July is what was off early on. Neither of them are coming back and added a lot of wins that were unsustainable over the course of a full year. Remember when Seiya led MLB in RBIs and was second in home runs? 
 

Don’t forget that Matt Boyd is the teams ace.

Edited August 31, 2025 by Geographyhater8888

[Papa Cub]

5 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

I think Carson’s Kelly’s 1.3K April OPS and PCA 26 home runs in a 79 game span from April-July is what was off early on. Neither of them are coming back and added a lot of wins that were unsustainable over the course of a full year. Remember when Seiya led MLB in RBIs and was second in home runs? 
 

Don’t forget that Matt Boyd is the teams ace.

I agree with that statement and comment because they are clear cut facts. I agree - what Kelly, Seiya and PCA did wasn’t sustainable for long term. Totally agree….so are we an average team overall? I guess that is the question we as Cubs fans are a bit afraid to answer. I really do hope they can just find some consistency in their game. No doubt some guys are struggling more than others and that’s gonna happen, but at their core, are they just another average team that outperformed themselves early on to set them up for the playoffs? I’m not really sure ya know 🤷‍♂️Either way - GO CUBS!

[UMFan83]

31 minutes ago, Papa Cub said:

I agree with that statement and comment because they are clear cut facts. I agree - what Kelly, Seiya and PCA did wasn’t sustainable for long term. Totally agree….so are we an average team overall? I guess that is the question we as Cubs fans are a bit afraid to answer. I really do hope they can just find some consistency in their game. No doubt some guys are struggling more than others and that’s gonna happen, but at their core, are they just another average team that outperformed themselves early on to set them up for the playoffs? I’m not really sure ya know 🤷‍♂️Either way - GO CUBS!

Why is what Seiya was doing unsustainable? His OPS is now 40 points lower than it was in 2023 and 2024 so if anything he’s giving us worse production. Even when he was on fire his OPS was only ~30 points higher than normal.  I’m too lazy to look at more advanced stats but at this point it seems like he’s having a worse season than expected cumulatively. 
 

As for PCA, he had an OPS of .811 the last 50 games of last year so sitting at around .860 is a jump but it’s also his 2nd full season so what he was doing seemed somewhat reasonable even if it was a little higher than we dreamed. Certainly he’s not a .423 OPS guy which is what he hit in August. 

Kelly was clearly the outlier. We’re really missing Amaya missing almost the entire season except for 1 random game. 

Edited September 1, 2025 by UMFan83

[Derwood]

Shota is our ace, not Boyd