Cubs (Taillon) vs Angels (Hendricks): 8/24/25, 3:07pm

[Jason Ross]

Taillon pulled for tight groin.

[NorthsideAvenger]

Not a bad weekend. Makes up for me breaking my ankle. 

[Jason Ross]

5 minutes ago, Caesar said:

If Palencia in the future can improve on that secondary pitch it will help him tremendously. His fastball is definitely good but lacks any movement and his secondary pitch in my opinion is below average. It’s roughly 87mph and doesn’t really move which in turn is just slow fastball. He will get many more strikeouts by getting better at second pitch. His strikeout percentage is decent but considering he throws 100 mph batters make a lot of contact due to lack of movement and below average second pitch. What do you fellows see?

All of his pitches grade out as plus or better on FanGraphs Stuff+ shape modeling. His slider is his best one.

[Hortonhearsawho]

Just now, Jason Ross said:

Taillon pulled for tight groin.

Not great. They need a healthy Taillon if they are gonna make a push to beat the Brewers.

[chibears55]

Just looking back, Pitching been awesome for the Cubs over the last 25 games, only giving up more then 4 runs 5 times.

Going 14-11 over that span, if the bats weren't struggling they probably have at least 5 more wins.

Hopefully the pitching continues and the bats heat up over the final 31 games.

10 series left, (9  3-game, 1  4-game) 

 

 

[chibears55]

5 minutes ago, BKHoo said:

Or them playing .500 and the Cubs getting hot. 

If the Brewers play 500, cubs would just need to win the last 10 series.

[Caesar]

9 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

All of his pitches grade out as plus or better on FanGraphs Stuff+ shape modeling. His slider is his best one.

His fastball is above average but from what I’ve seen his slider is sure doesn’t seem above average. Not sure how FanGraph judges pitches but that slider seems like a gift to the hitter when he throws it.

[cubfansince77]

40 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

No. It's possible. The Cubs have a really weak schedule and the Brewers have a much harder road. The Cubs hold the season tie-break over the Brewers. 5GB is not impossible today. It's unlikely, but this week has given the Cubs a chance.

Absolutely agree, we get a nice break in Sept. with 6 games against the Braves and 3 vs. the Nats as well as 3 more vs. the Bucs. So that's a 12 game stretch where hopefully we can win 9 or so.

Conversely, the Brew Crew gets the Phils and Rangers for 3 game series at beginning of the month and the rest of the month draws the Cards for 6, Padres for 3 and also the Reds. We absolutely have a scheduling advantage down the stretch. Would be awesome to finish strong, whether we win the division or not.

[Bertz]

27 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

Just looking back, Pitching been awesome for the Cubs over the last 25 games, only giving up more then 4 runs 5 times.

Going 14-11 over that span, if the bats weren't struggling they probably have at least 5 more wins.

Hopefully the pitching continues and the bats heat up over the final 31 games.

10 series left, (9  3-game, 1  4-game) 

 

 

Nearly half of those games (11) were played at Wrigley with the wind blowing in.  It's not just some annoying coincidence that the pitching was great and the bats struggled.

[Jason Ross]

45 minutes ago, Caesar said:

His fastball is above average but from what I’ve seen his slider is sure doesn’t seem above average. Not sure how FanGraph judges pitches but that slider seems like a gift to the hitter when he throws it.

It is based on release point, velocity, movement, and spin. Baseball Prospectus has their own pitch modeling system, and they too grade out his slider as excellent. It has a +3 RV based on MLB's Statcast, a 39% whiff rate, and a lower wOBA against than his fastball. It also has a .228 xwOBA on the pitch, too so he's been a little unlucky with it. 

I think your eyes are playing tricks on you. Every data point suggests it's a very good offering; both modeling and real world results.

[Tryptamine]

10 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

It is based on release point, velocity, movement, and spin. Baseball Prospectus has their own pitch modeling system, and they too grade out his slider as excellent. It has a +3 RV based on MLB's Statcast, a 39% whiff rate, and a lower wOBA against than his fastball. It also has a .228 xwOBA on the pitch, too so he's been a little unlucky with it. 

I think your eyes are playing tricks on you. Every data point suggests it's a very good offering; both modeling and real world results.

If anything I wish he'd use it a bit more. That .262 xSLG on his slider is absurd. 

[Brian707]

5 weeks left in the regular season. Just shave one game off a week.

 

 

[Jason Ross]

7 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

If anything I wish he'd use it a bit more. That .262 xSLG on his slider is absurd. 

I almost added this exact sentiment. You read my mind. 

[Caesar]

6 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

I almost added this exact sentiment. You read my mind. 

[Caesar]

Just now, Caesar said:

7 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

I almost added this exact sentiment. You read my mind. 

Well if that’s the case and you trust all these metrics then why is he not using it more often? Seems like manager and Palencia himself don’t  agree with metrics.  

[Caesar]

You would think the Cubs have access to all the information you have about his pitches correct? Then why I are the Cubs telling him to primarily use his fastball? They eye test doesn’t jive with your metrics information.

[Bertz]

1 minute ago, Caesar said:

You would think the Cubs have access to all the information you have about his pitches correct? Then why I are the Cubs telling him to primarily use his fastball? They eye test doesn’t jive with your metrics information.

Command

[Caesar]

2 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Command

If he doesn’t have command of those pitches then those metrics are silly. 

[Caesar]

It’s basically saying metrics show his curveball has excellent movement but he’s hanging it all the time.

[I owned a Suzuki]

5 minutes ago, Caesar said:

If he doesn’t have command of those pitches then those metrics are silly. 

It is also possible it is very effective because of its usage rates. Higher usage could very well reduce its effectiveness

[Bertz]

3 minutes ago, Caesar said:

If he doesn’t have command of those pitches then those metrics are silly. 

I think there's a difference between "I can't command my slider" and "I trust my command of my fastball more".

The Yankees have had A TON of success acquiring guys with crazy fastballs and then having them lean primarily on their secondary pitches.  Palencia's young/unestablished enough that I wouldn't change too much too soon, but long term he should probably push from 80/20  fastball/slider like he is now to something like 60/30/10 fastball/slider/splitter.  Maybe even further.

[Hankchifan]

Sweeping the Angels and the Brewers losing 2 out 3 to the Giants, gets the Cubs back into the race.,  with the easier schedule coming up.  The Cubs have a better team than the Brewers, but they have been under performing whereas the Brewers have been over performing with less talent   But  appear to be coming down to earth now.  They are 3-5 in their last 8 games and Cubs are 6-2.  Tucker appears to be back as well.        Looking better for the Cubs to possibly win the Division after all.  IMO.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Welcome!

[BKHoo]

39 minutes ago, Caesar said:

You would think the Cubs have access to all the information you have about his pitches correct? Then why I are the Cubs telling him to primarily use his fastball? They eye test doesn’t jive with your metrics information.

There is also this thing called rhythm with a pitcher. He uses it as a secondary pitch off his fastball. Maybe it’s better because of that, the hitters are sitting on the fastball and how his arm feels because of all the fastballs he throws. 

[Rcal10]

2 hours ago, chibears55 said:

If the Brewers play 500, cubs would just need to win the last 10 series.

I am figuring 21-10 for the Cubs and 16-15 for the Brewers. Cubs win the tiebreaker. It really could happen. Brewers don’t have to play terrible for the Cubs to catch them. Cubs just have to win series.