7/30 - Cubs Trade Deadline Rumors & Discussion

[Tryptamine]

If we're going the pure rental route I'll take

Kelly, Castro, Bieber and Miller

[Bertz]

8 minutes ago, tartan222 said:

one weird thing about this deadline is that other than suarez, we kind of feel like we're in our own lane for a lot of our major targets. doesn't seem like we were nearly as heavy on the established reliever market as other teams, and i don't think there are many other teams that are super serious about going after SPs with team control like we (reportedly) are. 

as a result, we're not really getting namedropped as much as other buyers in the past ~48 hours, and we aren't getting constant updates on the status of guys like cabrera the same way some other big names are getting covered. makes it hard to tell how active we're really being or how big we're truly willing to go.

 

(not saying that means anything for what we will/won't do. just think that if we do make a big move, there's a good chance it's more "out of nowhere" timing-wise, in contrast to players with a more active market who have sparked a steady drip of rumors before the news finally broke)

This is a really good point.  It's pretty clear the Cubs want a guy who could start a playoff game this year and still be under controlnext year.  That leaves, barring someone surprising being available:

- Sandy Alcantara

- Mitch Keller

- Joe Ryan

- Edward Cabrera

- Mackenzie Gore 

Those first two guys likely have broad markets because their salaries limit the prospect cost.  Those other three?  They feel like Cubs or bust.  Dodgers and Mariners aren't shopping SP, and other teams don't have the expendable prospect capital.

[We Got The Whole 9]

I said it several times throughout the year that I just don't think those guys have the type of value that most of you think they do.

 

Alcantara is gonna be 24 next year with possibly one option remaining. We are not the only ones privy to the fact that he struggles majorly against non- fastballs. He doesn't steal but he might be a decent CF. What type of war can you project? He's borderline amd gonna fall off a lot of lists next year.

Caissie's profile similarly doesn't bode well. Jason and others have admitted he might take a season or two to be a viable MLB bat. He's almost certainly going to be a platoon guy, maybe average COF defense. If he doesn't mash i just don't see him being rhat valuable. Maybe it was a brain fart but Longenhagen doesn't have him in his top 100, and that is pretty significant to me.

 

My thing is, if im Arizona I am going hard after Rojas or Wiggins if Caissie is off-limits. 3B is just of massive scarcity and here's a guy who could hit 15 HR for you down the stretch. We are in heavy need of RH power. We are the team mostly linked to him, I believe. Jed has to be willing to make a major concession if that is truly the case.

 

Suarez is a more valuable chip than most of the top rental bats that have been traded in recent years. 

[Tryptamine]

Just now, We Got The Whole 9 said:

I said it several times throughout the year that I just don't think those guys have the type of value that most of you think they do.

 

Alcantara is gonna be 24 next year with possibly one option remaining. We are not the only ones privy to the fact that he struggles majorly against non- fastballs. He doesn't steal but he might be a decent CF. What type of war can you project? He's borderline amd gonna fall off a lot of lists next year.

Caissie's profile similarly doesn't bode well. Jason and others have admitted he might take a season or two to be a viable MLB bat. He's almost certainly going to be a platoon guy, maybe average COF defense. If he doesn't mash i just don't see him being rhat valuable. Maybe it was a brain fart but Longenhagen doesn't have him in his top 100, and that is pretty significant to me.

 

My thing is, if im Arizona I am going hard after Rojas or Wiggins if Caissie is off-limits. 3B is just of massive scarcity and here's a guy who could hit 15 HR for you down the stretch. We are in heavy need of RH power. We are the team mostly linked to him, I believe. Jed has to be willing to make a major concession if that is truly the case.

 

Suarez is a more valuable chip than most of the top rental bats that have been traded in recent years. 

Your thinking is that Arizona is going to ask for a guy in Rojas who stands a pretty good chance being a top 30 prospect in the game once after season lists come out, or a top 50 prospect in Wiggins? I suggest you go back and find the last time a rental bat was moved for a return like that.

[Bertz]

6 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

He's borderline amd gonna fall off a lot of lists next year.

Keith Law and Eric Longenhagen each had him Top 40 in lists that came out in the last week

[JD94]

10 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

I said it several times throughout the year that I just don't think those guys have the type of value that most of you think they do.

 

Alcantara is gonna be 24 next year with possibly one option remaining. We are not the only ones privy to the fact that he struggles majorly against non- fastballs. He doesn't steal but he might be a decent CF. What type of war can you project? He's borderline amd gonna fall off a lot of lists next year.

Caissie's profile similarly doesn't bode well. Jason and others have admitted he might take a season or two to be a viable MLB bat. He's almost certainly going to be a platoon guy, maybe average COF defense. If he doesn't mash i just don't see him being rhat valuable. Maybe it was a brain fart but Longenhagen doesn't have him in his top 100, and that is pretty significant to me.

 

My thing is, if im Arizona I am going hard after Rojas or Wiggins if Caissie is off-limits. 3B is just of massive scarcity and here's a guy who could hit 15 HR for you down the stretch. We are in heavy need of RH power. We are the team mostly linked to him, I believe. Jed has to be willing to make a major concession if that is truly the case.

 

Suarez is a more valuable chip than most of the top rental bats that have been traded in recent years. 

An above average defensive CF that’s likely a 20/20 guy most seasons would be a perennial 3+ WAR player. That’s extremely valuable. I think you’re severely underselling Alcantara and Caissie 

[Hortonhearsawho]

12 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

I said it several times throughout the year that I just don't think those guys have the type of value that most of you think they do.

 

Alcantara is gonna be 24 next year with possibly one option remaining. We are not the only ones privy to the fact that he struggles majorly against non- fastballs. He doesn't steal but he might be a decent CF. What type of war can you project? He's borderline amd gonna fall off a lot of lists next year.

Caissie's profile similarly doesn't bode well. Jason and others have admitted he might take a season or two to be a viable MLB bat. He's almost certainly going to be a platoon guy, maybe average COF defense. If he doesn't mash i just don't see him being rhat valuable. Maybe it was a brain fart but Longenhagen doesn't have him in his top 100, and that is pretty significant to me.

 

My thing is, if im Arizona I am going hard after Rojas or Wiggins if Caissie is off-limits. 3B is just of massive scarcity and here's a guy who could hit 15 HR for you down the stretch. We are in heavy need of RH power. We are the team mostly linked to him, I believe. Jed has to be willing to make a major concession if that is truly the case.

 

Suarez is a more valuable chip than most of the top rental bats that have been traded in recent years. 

They can ask for whatever they want but they won't be getting either Rojas or Wiggins from the Cubs for Suarez. 

[TarzanJoeWallis]

2 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Keith Law and Eric Longenhagen each had him Top 40 in lists that came out in the last week

Not only that, but Law didn’t even have Caissie in his Top 60. So anyone who thinks Alcantara is clearly considered the worst prospect is under appreciating him. 

[Tryptamine]

3 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Keith Law and Eric Longenhagen each had him Top 40 in lists that came out in the last week

Alcantara has never really gotten the proper love here. The can play above average defense at a premium position. He doesn't need to put up an .850 OPS to be very valuable. You get a CFer who can put up a .240/.310/.440 line and that's probably a 3.5 to 4 fWAR guy.

[Tryptamine]

2 minutes ago, JD94 said:

An above average defensive CF that’s likely a 20/20 guy most seasons would be a perennial 3+ WAR player. That’s extremely valuable. I think you’re severely underselling Alcantara and Caissie 

Beat me to it.

[We Got The Whole 9]

18 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Keith Law and Eric Longenhagen each had him Top 40 in lists that came out in the last week

Was it Kiley that left him out? It was a pretty big name.

[squally1313]

5 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

Was it Kiley that left him out? It was a pretty big name.

But is it possible you’re just overly familiar with their flaws and similar issues exist with pretty much every other similarly ranked prospect? 
 

it’s like how most normal fans would look at Dansby and be like ‘hm, 2 fWAR, on pace for over 3, pretty good player’ and we’re collectively like ‘he’s the worst clutch player in modern baseball history’

[We Got The Whole 9]

32 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

Your thinking is that Arizona is going to ask for a guy in Rojas who stands a pretty good chance being a top 30 prospect in the game once after season lists come out, or a top 50 prospect in Wiggins? I suggest you go back and find the last time a rental bat was moved for a return like that.

How many of those bats played a position where there was a major dearth across the league? How many were posting 130 in that season as well?

 

Arizona has a major chip in their possession. We have also heard that Jed would be willing to part with Caissie for Mitch freaking Keller from a guy who is very plugged in. 

[gocubs218]

 

[We Got The Whole 9]

26 minutes ago, JD94 said:

An above average defensive CF that’s likely a 20/20 guy most seasons would be a perennial 3+ WAR player. That’s extremely valuable. I think you’re severely underselling Alcantara and Caissie 

He has never posted 20/20 in the minors but hes likely 20/20 most seasons in the majors? Color me skeptical.

He has been league average offensively this year and theres a good chance he will get overwhelmed when the fastballs stop in the majors, its just not really a profile i would wager much on at this point.

[We Got The Whole 9]

8 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

But is it possible you’re just overly familiar with their flaws and similar issues exist with pretty much every other similarly ranked prospect? 
 

Yes?

[JD94]

5 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

He has never posted 20/20 in the minors but hes likely 20/20 most seasons in the majors? Color me skeptical.

He has been league average offensively this year and theres a good chance he will get overwhelmed when the fastballs stop in the majors, its just not really a profile i would wager much on at this point.

He’s never played 162 games in a season either. He’s been on pace multiple years. I don’t think predicting 20/20 seasons on the regular over 162 games and above average defense at a premium position is a reach. I think it’s a very fair assessment of his potential. 

[squally1313]

7 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

Yes?

Ok so if all mid-top 100 prospects are flawed and likely to not turn into much, why is that consistently the top end of what players, especially rentals go for come the trade deadline every year. 

[We Got The Whole 9]

3 minutes ago, JD94 said:

He’s never played 162 games in a season either. He’s been on pace multiple years. I don’t think predicting 20/20 seasons on the regular over 162 games and above average defense at a premium position is a reach. I think it’s a very fair assessment of his potential. 

But how long until ge reaches it? Frankly I think its a little outlandish considering he has firmly been a sub-200 ISO guy at every stop where he played a lot of games. 

[We Got The Whole 9]

2 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Ok so if all mid-top 100 prospects are flawed and likely to not turn into much, why is that consistently the top end of what players, especially rentals go for come the trade deadline every year. 

 

The freaking sample size (your fetish) is 4 years. Again, how many players playing one of the rarest positions around the league at the time and that are performing 30+% above league average have been traded? This is a unique case. The Cubs need RH power bad and up until the ASB had virtually no production out of the 3B position and they are desperate to make the playoffs, are seemingly in the sweepstakes even though the ask is 2 top 100 guys. Jed is willing to make major concessions IMO if we are still in that fight.

[squally1313]

1 minute ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

The freaking sample size (your fetish) is 4 years. Again, how many players playing one of the rarest positions around the league at the time and that are performing 30+% above league average have been traded? This is a unique case. The Cubs need RH power bad and up until the ASB had virtually no production out of the 3B position and they are desperate to make the playoffs, are seemingly in the sweepstakes even though the ask is 2 top 100 guys. Jed is willing to make major concessions IMO if we are still in that fight.

Yeah you’re right, the cubs haven’t traded for a third baseman with a 130+ wRC in…a little over a year. Oh and that guy had multiple years of control. Very unique situation. 

[Jason Ross]

4 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

The freaking sample size (your fetish) is 4 years. Again, how many players playing one of the rarest positions around the league at the time and that are performing 30+% above league average have been traded? This is a unique case. The Cubs need RH power bad and up until the ASB had virtually no production out of the 3B position and they are desperate to make the playoffs, are seemingly in the sweepstakes even though the ask is 2 top 100 guys. Jed is willing to make major concessions IMO if we are still in that fight.

Jed Hoyer is nothing if not a pragmatist. He refused to budge on his valuation of Willson Conteras a few years ago. My reading of him being involved in Suarez is that especially as teams drop out of the running (for example, the Yankees grabbing McMahon, the Reds nabbing Hayes) that his belief is not that he would eventually meet the Arizona Diamondbacks asking offer, but that the Diamondbacks will eventually fall down to his base valuation. Frankly, if the Cubs were desperate and willing to meet that price, they probably would have done so already, not be sitting here waiting around.

The Cubs just are not going to trade Owen Caissie alone for a rental, let alone package Kevin Alcantara with him. Jed would almost assuredly turn to another 3b that did meet his valuation, not give in. 

For better or worse, Hoyer doesn't budge much off of how he sees a player's value. He has done this with free agency and in trades. If there is one thing I have zero worries about, is Jed getting desperate and just wildly overpaying (what he feels is fair value) just to get something done. You may not agree with his eventual valuation, but I am sure that Jed will have a deal he deems fair, or none at all.

[CubinNY]

Jed always plays things close the vest. And I want no part of Suarez for anything. He’s too streaky and he’s in a funk right now. 

[Connor McConnor]

The Cubs are not in the hunt this late very often.  

Prospects may or may not work out.

If you have to overpay a little to get Suarez, do it. 

36 Home Runs and 87 RBI year to date.

Shaw can give the other infield guys a rest, and still play 3rd a bit down the stretch.

This offense can go cold. It has, and it will.  We need all the help we can get. 

If we do make the playoffs and are making a run, who do you want walking to the plate with a few men on and the score tied in the 8th inning? Shaw or Suarez?

Get too cute about "prospects" and you will be reading your stats year after year instead of playing and possibly winning in October. 

2025 SEASON STAVG

 

Edited July 31, 2025 by Connor McConnor

[Jason Ross]

Soroka. Cubs. Done.