Monday Night's Loss Was a Blip for Chicago Cubs, but Milwaukee Brewers' Superiority is Real

[Matthew Trueblood]

Image courtesy of © Benny Sieu-Imagn Images

Not every game can be a referendum on an entire season. The Cubs and Brewers entered their game Monday in Milwaukee in a flat-footed tie atop the NL Central, and although the hosts took the game in convincing fashion, that game itself should be quickly forgotten. Matthew Boyd, whose command and control have been the hallmarks of his All-Star season, simply didn't have them, and while he dodged some early traffic, the Brewers offense punished his imprecision in the middle innings. Sometimes, you just have an off night.

However, it would be wrong and misguided to assume that the standings for the year reflect a reality at which Monday merely poked its tongue out. It's fairer to say that while Monday's contest was a distortion and exaggeration, it illustrated a basic truth: the Brewers are a lot better than the Cubs right now.

Since May 22, the Cubs have the second-best record in the National League, at 32-24. They've outscored opponents by 29 runs during that span. They haven't collapsed; they're not in much danger of falling out of the playoff picture entirely.

However, the Brewers have been better—much, much better. They're 38-17 over the same span, and have outscored opponents by an even 100 runs. Their offense is lighter on power than Chicago's, but it's much deeper and more consistent. Their pitching staff is both stronger at the top and much, much deeper. The Cubs play great defense; the Brewers play equally great defense. The Cubs run the bases better than almost anyone in the league; the Brewers are the reason for the word "almost" in that sentence.

This doesn't mean that the Cubs are doomed to slouch back into the muddle of the National League Wild Card race, as the Brewers charge smoothly to their third straight division title. This year, unlike in previous ones, the Cubs have a real chance at winning the division title. However, the gap between these teams that some perceived back in April or May (favoring the Cubs) is gone. A real gap has emerged, favoring the Brewers. Milwaukee really doesn't need anything more than the modest upgrade they made at backup catcher, when they traded for Danny Jansen on Monday. The Cubs, if they want to keep pace and edge out the Brewers, have multiple major needs.

Jed Hoyer has his contract extension. The team he's assembled has some scintillating talent, fueling a strong campaign to date. Without massive reinforcement over the next 50 hours, though, they will fall short of the division title yet again, and they won't get very far in October. Hoyer doesn't like dealing from a position of weakness, and has tried to maintain leverage as well as possible throughout this process. With the countdown clock ticking and the reality of his team and their chief rivals playing out on the field every day, though, that leverage is gone.

The Cubs ought to be desperate. If they aren't—if ownership's decision to extend Hoyer was a statement that coming this far was somehow sufficient—then they're not setting a high enough standard to get anywhere worth going. Without a major move and (just as importantly) some improved performance from their best incumbent players over the final two months, the Cubs aren't going to keep up with the Brewers. The two might be next to each other on the track, but that's just a snapshot. If you watch the video, you can see that Milwaukee is running much faster and is much less exhausted than Chicago is. If nothing changes that, this race won't look very close by the time the teams reach the finish line.

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[UMFan83]

Isn't data from the first 50 games of the season also relevant?  The Cubs offense might not have as much depth/variety as Milwaukee but the data we've gathered this season suggests that the Cubs are a better offense overall.  Even if you look at since June 1st which is roughly when the Brewers got hot, their offense has been almost identical in terms of wRC+ and wOBA.  

Maybe the Brewers just needed some time to get going and they are actually this good, but a season is a roller coaster and the Brewers are currently in a peak.  We play 162 games to try to capture all those peaks and valleys as best as we can.  So far the data shows that the Cubs and Brewers are very close.  Maybe in a month the Cubs are the team that gets red hot and the Brewers are merely good.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

If the Brewers continue to have the best offense in the NL by a significant margin, as they have since that May 22 mark, they're very likely to win the division.  The performances carrying that offense, especially if you compare to the Cubs in that timeframe, would not fill me with a ton of optimism of that continuing over the final 55 games if I were a Brewers fan. 

[Bertz]

1 hour ago, UMFan83 said:

Isn't data from the first 50 games of the season also relevant?  The Cubs offense might not have as much depth/variety as Milwaukee but the data we've gathered this season suggests that the Cubs are a better offense overall.  Even if you look at since June 1st which is roughly when the Brewers got hot, their offense has been almost identical in terms of wRC+ and wOBA.  

Maybe the Brewers just needed some time to get going and they are actually this good, but a season is a roller coaster and the Brewers are currently in a peak.  We play 162 games to try to capture all those peaks and valleys as best as we can.  So far the data shows that the Cubs and Brewers are very close.  Maybe in a month the Cubs are the team that gets red hot and the Brewers are merely good.

In addition to this I also think over-weighting the last two months is problematic because the Cubs faced a murderers row of opposing starting pitchers in June.  If you look at Baseball Prospectus' DRC+ metric (their version of wRC+ that happens to also include opponent quality) from May 22 onward the Cubs are 2nd in the league at 114 and the Brewers are 23rd in the league at 97.

The Cubs are just a much much much better offensive team.  

[Hiroshima Carp Enthusiast]

This feels like a significant overreaction. Brewers have been a serious heater - tip of the cap to them. They have an over-achieving rotation and lineup. We can't sit here and act like Priester, Quintana and Civale can keep this up. They won't get this production from their SPs the rest of the way beyond the top 2.

And their lineup is deeper and more consistent?? Be serious!

[Jason Ross]

47 minutes ago, Bertz said:

In addition to this I also think over-weighting the last two months is problematic because the Cubs faced a murderers row of opposing starting pitchers in June.  If you look at Baseball Prospectus' DRC+ metric (their version of wRC+ that happens to also include opponent quality) from May 22 onward the Cubs are 2nd in the league at 114 and the Brewers are 23rd in the league at 97.

The Cubs are just a much much much better offensive team.  

I swear I'll giving you credit, but I'm stealing this tidbit for the podcast this week. This was a wonderful addition and really great and easy digestible way to explain it.

[Rcal10]

16 minutes ago, Hiroshima Carp Enthusiast said:

This feels like a significant overreaction. Brewers have been a serious heater - tip of the cap to them. They have an over-achieving rotation and lineup. We can't sit here and act like Priester, Quintana and Civale can keep this up. They won't get this production from their SPs the rest of the way beyond the top 2.

And their lineup is deeper and more consistent?? Be serious!

They don’t have Civale. They got Andrew “Babe” Vaughn for him. Woodruff took his place and him, Miz and Peralta certainly can keep it up. That said, too much is being made of a crazy hit streak for 50+ games. 

[gflore34]

Another Brewers propaganda piece? Last week' wasn't enough? We get it, the Brewers are superior, will never lose and Cubs can do nothing but lay in their wake.  Is this North Side Baseball or Brewers South? 

Never mind the statistics above suggesting the Brewers are offensively flawed and by far not superior to the Cubs.

Edited July 29, 2025 by gflore34

[Papa Cub]

34 minutes ago, gflore34 said:

Another Brewers propaganda piece? Last week' wasn't enough? We get it, the Brewers are superior, will never lose and Cubs can do nothing but lay in their wake.  Is this North Side Baseball or Brewers South? 

Never mind the statistics above suggesting the Brewers are offensively flawed and by far not superior to the Cubs.

I agree with your comment. The blog did seem a bit skewed in areas for sure. 
 

However, as a Cubs fan, I have to admit that from an “all-around” perspective, I do feel the Brewers have the better team right now. Not superior, but more efficient and consistent I feel. Cubs have more needs to address than Milwaukee. That’s a fact. Cubs have the offense and base stealing and defense, but their pitching is mediocre at best right now. This isn’t being negative, it’s simply looking at the two teams and comparing where they’re at right now. 

[gflore34]

19 minutes ago, Papa Cub said:

I agree with your comment. The blog did seem a bit skewed in areas for sure. 
 

However, as a Cubs fan, I have to admit that from an “all-around” perspective, I do feel the Brewers have the better team right now. Not superior, but more efficient and consistent I feel. Cubs have more needs to address than Milwaukee. That’s a fact. Cubs have the offense and base stealing and defense, but their pitching is mediocre at best right now. This isn’t being negative, it’s simply looking at the two teams and comparing where they’re at right now. 

I agree, the Cubs certainly have needs, most especially, in pitching. As many believe Jed needs to make deals for at least 2 starting pitchers.  Be they rentals, a controlled + a rental, etc.  If that's done it certainly helps the Cubs from the all around perspective.

[PVG]

It's great that the Cubs can hang with the Brewers this year. But I've got to ask again- is it the system, or what?  Since 2019 the Brewers have averaged about 8 more wins per year than the Cubs - while spending about $70M less per year.  The Cubs payroll averages more than 150% of the Brewers!  Any theories as to why that should be - what secret sauce do they have?

[KCCub]

48 minutes ago, PVG said:

It's great that the Cubs can hang with the Brewers this year. But I've got to ask again- is it the system, or what?  Since 2019 the Brewers have averaged about 8 more wins per year than the Cubs - while spending about $70M less per year.  The Cubs payroll averages more than 150% of the Brewers!  Any theories as to why that should be - what secret sauce do they have?

 

That’s a loaded question. And why specifically 2019? Why not since 2015? You picked the tail end of a very successful Cubs run. The run where they traded a lot of prospect capital (Cease, Torres, Jimenez) to win a World Series and/or try to get back. What they didn’t do is have enough depth in the farm for sustained success. The Brewers do a great job of trading away guys before they hit FA (Burnes, Hader, etc) combined with the benefits of being a small market club which allows them to have adequate talent throughout their roster/farm. They’re also just a smart org overall with evaluations and mechanical tweaks. When the Cubs traded away their core, they traded for younger upside with the likes of Caissie, PCA, Alcantara, etc who were all years away from the bigs. Jed’s mentioned multiple times that it’s important to have a rich farm for sustained success and I think we will see the fruits of that moving forwards. 

[PVG]

KC, that's fair.  I'm making a claim that the Cubs organization is/has been underperforming the Brewers organization. So let me go back to 2015.  That's now 10+ years and the height of the Cubs success.  So from 2015 thru today the Cubs have won about 8 more games than the Brewers.  Call it even.  In the same time period, per the numbers I saw, the Cubs had an avg salary of about 150M and the Brewers about 92M - better than a 1.5::1 ratio.  I don't think that the advantage that small market teams get with the competitive advantage pick (the Brewers have had 10 since 2015) nearly makes up for the extra 50% the Cubs have spent.  I don't know what you mean by - the benefits of being a small market club which allows them to have adequate talent throughout their roster/farm. 
But when you say 
-do a great job of trading away guys before they hit FA
-a smart org overall with evaluations and mechanical tweaks 

you're making my case.  You're saying that as an organization, they understand baseball better - dollar for dollar, they're better at baseball.  And all the Cubs can do is hope to outspend them
That's sad for us Cub fans. 
And - doesn't it seem remarkable that today, with widespread analytics, that one team could have this advantage over another? What is it that they see that others don't? 
   

[squally1313]

I will concede the point that if the Brewers continue to out BABIP the Cubs by 51 points, which they've done since the (very arbitrary!) May 22nd date you referenced, we'll probably be in trouble. Now, their BABIP over that stretch is higher than what any team has done in a full year this decade, so I'd say it's....somewhat unlikely. And the Cubs are 27th over that stretch, which implies some unluckiness in addition to the very good opposing pitching metrics referenced above. But hey, if that all continues for....reasons, yeah, they might win more games than us!