Cubs Video
Not every game can be a referendum on an entire season. The Cubs and Brewers entered their game Monday in Milwaukee in a flat-footed tie atop the NL Central, and although the hosts took the game in convincing fashion, that game itself should be quickly forgotten. Matthew Boyd, whose command and control have been the hallmarks of his All-Star season, simply didn't have them, and while he dodged some early traffic, the Brewers offense punished his imprecision in the middle innings. Sometimes, you just have an off night.
However, it would be wrong and misguided to assume that the standings for the year reflect a reality at which Monday merely poked its tongue out. It's fairer to say that while Monday's contest was a distortion and exaggeration, it illustrated a basic truth: the Brewers are a lot better than the Cubs right now.
Since May 22, the Cubs have the second-best record in the National League, at 32-24. They've outscored opponents by 29 runs during that span. They haven't collapsed; they're not in much danger of falling out of the playoff picture entirely.
However, the Brewers have been better—much, much better. They're 38-17 over the same span, and have outscored opponents by an even 100 runs. Their offense is lighter on power than Chicago's, but it's much deeper and more consistent. Their pitching staff is both stronger at the top and much, much deeper. The Cubs play great defense; the Brewers play equally great defense. The Cubs run the bases better than almost anyone in the league; the Brewers are the reason for the word "almost" in that sentence.
This doesn't mean that the Cubs are doomed to slouch back into the muddle of the National League Wild Card race, as the Brewers charge smoothly to their third straight division title. This year, unlike in previous ones, the Cubs have a real chance at winning the division title. However, the gap between these teams that some perceived back in April or May (favoring the Cubs) is gone. A real gap has emerged, favoring the Brewers. Milwaukee really doesn't need anything more than the modest upgrade they made at backup catcher, when they traded for Danny Jansen on Monday. The Cubs, if they want to keep pace and edge out the Brewers, have multiple major needs.
Jed Hoyer has his contract extension. The team he's assembled has some scintillating talent, fueling a strong campaign to date. Without massive reinforcement over the next 50 hours, though, they will fall short of the division title yet again, and they won't get very far in October. Hoyer doesn't like dealing from a position of weakness, and has tried to maintain leverage as well as possible throughout this process. With the countdown clock ticking and the reality of his team and their chief rivals playing out on the field every day, though, that leverage is gone.
The Cubs ought to be desperate. If they aren't—if ownership's decision to extend Hoyer was a statement that coming this far was somehow sufficient—then they're not setting a high enough standard to get anywhere worth going. Without a major move and (just as importantly) some improved performance from their best incumbent players over the final two months, the Cubs aren't going to keep up with the Brewers. The two might be next to each other on the track, but that's just a snapshot. If you watch the video, you can see that Milwaukee is running much faster and is much less exhausted than Chicago is. If nothing changes that, this race won't look very close by the time the teams reach the finish line.
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